Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the market have provided investors with opportunities to strategically position themselves for the upcoming "cross-year" market trends, particularly focusing on growth and dividend styles [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 22, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.65%, with notable gains from stocks such as Tuojing Technology (688072) up by 6.39%, China Duty Free Group (601888) up by 6.27%, and Zijin Mining (601899) up by 4.95% [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) rose by 0.58%, with the latest price reported at 1.21 yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. **Growth in AI Technology**: The AI sector is expected to transition into industrial applications, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly favoring domestic companies. Applications to watch include robotics, consumer electronics, smart driving, and software [2]. 2. **External Demand**: Companies with overseas expansion strategies are seen as reliable growth opportunities, particularly in sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and non-ferrous metals [2]. 3. **Cyclical Reversal**: Attention is recommended on sectors nearing improvement in supply-demand dynamics or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [2]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Market Catalysts - According to Huatai Securities, the upcoming spring market is anticipated to show positive momentum, driven by potential catalysts such as foreign capital position adjustments post-Christmas, the dense disclosure period for annual reports starting mid-January, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts in January [3]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which comprises 180 large-cap, liquid stocks from the Shanghai market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [3].

Core Insights - The weight loss market, driven by the rising global obesity rates, is emerging as one of the fastest-growing sectors in the pharmaceutical industry, with GLP-1 targeted drugs being the current stars of research and commercialization, potentially exceeding a market size of $100 billion [1] Group 1: Clinical Innovation - There are significant unmet clinical needs in GLP-1 weight loss drugs, including weight rebound after discontinuation, long-term patient adherence challenges, and gastrointestinal side effects, driving companies towards differentiated innovation [2] - Innovations in administration methods, such as oral formulations and ultra-long-acting injectables, are becoming focal points of competition, with companies that can offer more convenient and long-lasting delivery systems likely to create unique competitive advantages [2] - Expanding indications beyond weight loss to include treatment potentials for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MASH), cardiovascular diseases, and chronic kidney disease can open new value growth points and avoid homogenized competition in a single indication [2] Group 2: Global Integration - Companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Fosun Pharma, and others have completed multiple licensing deals related to GLP-1 products, with total licensing amounts reaching several billion dollars, reflecting international market recognition of Chinese pharmaceutical R&D capabilities [3] - The movement of more domestic GLP-1 drugs into the global market is expected to change the competitive landscape [3] Group 3: Market Channel Transformation - Unlike PD-1 inhibitors that heavily rely on hospital markets, weight loss drugs are creating new commercial channel models due to a large patient base and chronic disease management attributes [4] - A unique "dual market structure" is forming, where products like semaglutide and tirzepatide are entering national health insurance through diabetes indications, while high-end differentiated products retain ample space in the self-pay segment, providing a diverse survival environment for various products [4] - The rise of online channels is breaking traditional hospital bottlenecks, allowing innovative pharmaceutical companies, especially emerging brands, to reach and serve a vast user base more directly and quickly, establishing brand recognition and patient foundations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry in China has shown significant recovery in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities to serve the real economy and new productive forces, alongside a notable increase in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities marks a step towards building a first-class investment bank, while the industry continues to strengthen its overseas subsidiaries and deepen high-level openness [2][4][5]. Industry Development - The securities industry has increasingly demonstrated its functional capabilities, with total assets of 107 securities firms reaching 14.5 trillion yuan, a growth of over 10% from the end of 2024. Net assets rose to 3.3 trillion yuan, showing steady growth [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed securities firms reported a combined operating income of 419.56 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit of 169.29 billion yuan, reflecting an average increase of 88.68% [5]. - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has been completed, achieving a "1+1>2" effect, while other mergers, such as CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, are in progress [4][5]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector has shown signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing, mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border service upgrades. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan [7][8]. - The Hong Kong IPO market has rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.89 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [8]. - Mergers and acquisitions have become a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their services to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industrial integration and transformation [8]. Wealth Management - The wealth management business of securities firms has seen significant growth, with a total revenue of approximately 145.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 37.4% [11]. - Brokerage fee income reached 111.78 billion yuan, up 74.64%, while asset management fees were 33.25 billion yuan, showing a modest increase [11]. - The transition from earning trading commissions to management and service fees is evident, with over 90% of new accounts opened online and more than 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [13]. Asset Management - The asset management industry is undergoing a restructuring, with the total scale of private asset management products reaching 5.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [15]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses has been paused, with several firms withdrawing their applications, indicating a shift in focus towards private asset management strategies [16]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with firms expected to enhance their offerings in active management and client service [17]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has intensified, with significant deals such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing and Xinda Securities by CICC [18][19]. - Policies supporting the consolidation of leading firms aim to enhance core competitiveness and encourage differentiated development among smaller firms [19]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure by 2026, with a focus on integrating resources and enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese securities firms [19].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月19日 华源晨会精粹 20251221 新消费 密集政策提振消费，海南自由贸易港封关运作正式启动——新消费行业周 报：扩大内需是战略之举，消费有关政策频出：中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经 济工作的重点任务，其中第一项重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握 扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用。商务部等 9 部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举措。商务部、 中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振 消费的通知》。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动，中免发布多重礼遇。根据 中免海南战报，12 月 18 日封关首日中免海南销售额超 2.5 亿元，同比增长 90%。 2025 年 1-11 月美容护肤品牌格局：TOP5 品牌主要由珀莱雅、欧莱雅、韩束、兰 蔻、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the promising data from CTLA-4 drugs, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related areas [3][5] - The pharmaceutical index experienced a slight decline of 0.14% from December 15 to December 19, 2025, but showed a relative outperformance of 0.14% against the CSI 300 index [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs as a key investment theme for 2026, with a focus on companies that are expected to show clear performance trends and potential reversals in operations [5][41] Summary by Sections 1. CTLA-4 Target - CTLA-4 is identified as a significant immune checkpoint that can inhibit T cell activation, presenting potential value in cancer immunotherapy [8][9] - The CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody Gotistobart shows promising clinical trial results for squamous non-small cell lung cancer (sqNSCLC) patients who are resistant to immunotherapy [14][15] - Gotistobart's innovative mechanism targets Treg cells in the tumor microenvironment, potentially leading to a new paradigm in tumor immunotherapy [20][24] 2. Industry Perspective - The report maintains that innovative drugs should be the main focus for the year, while also considering manufacturing exports and aging-related consumption as relatively undervalued assets [25][41] - The pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, with a notable number of stocks experiencing significant gains [25][26] - The report suggests that the Chinese pharmaceutical industry has completed a transition from old to new growth drivers, with innovative drugs opening new growth avenues for companies [41][42] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include innovative drug companies such as Xinyi Tai, Zai Jian Pharmaceutical, and others, as well as companies in the medical device sector [5][45] - The report advises focusing on companies with strong performance trends and those expected to benefit from the aging population and outpatient consumption [42][44] - The report also highlights the potential of AI in the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that related stocks may perform well in the coming years [42][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has been downgraded from "Positive" to "Neutral" [2][52] - The rating for 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) is maintained at "Buy" [2][52] Core Insights - The National Medical Security Work Conference was held to summarize the work during the 14th Five-Year Plan and deploy key tasks for 2026, focusing on high-quality development of medical insurance [9][10] - The new drug directory and commercial health insurance innovation drug directory are expected to be implemented, suggesting potential growth for pharmaceutical companies whose products enter the medical insurance system [52] - The report highlights the importance of optimizing the payment structure for pharmaceutical companies and the investment opportunities arising from this [52] - Recent advancements in AI healthcare applications are noted, with a recommendation to focus on related medical services and pharmaceutical commercial sectors [52] Industry News - The National Medical Security Bureau has issued a three-year action plan to improve the quality and efficiency of medical insurance fund settlement [11][12] - The second-generation cardiac muscle troponin inhibitor, 星舒平® (Afikaytai), has been approved in China for treating obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy [13] - The AI health application "蚂蚁阿福" (Ant Health) has entered the first tier of AI applications, reflecting strong demand for health management [13] Industry Data - The price of vitamin raw materials as of December 18, 2025, remains stable, with Vitamin B1 at 238 RMB/kg and Vitamin D3 at 160 RMB/kg [14] - The Chinese herbal medicine market price index has decreased by 16% year-on-year, with specific herbs like 连翘 (Forsythia) and 党参 (Codonopsis) showing significant price drops [18] Company Announcements - 和铂医药-B (HaploMed) has signed a global strategic cooperation and licensing agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb, potentially receiving up to 1.125 billion USD in milestone payments [30] - 翰森制药 (Hansoh Pharmaceutical) has entered a licensing agreement with Glenmark for the drug 阿美替尼 (Amivantamab) for non-small cell lung cancer [31] - 诺诚健华 (Innovent Biologics) has received approval for the III phase clinical trial of 奥布替尼 (Orelabrutinib) for systemic lupus erythematosus [33] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.71%, with the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index declining by 1.23% [45] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has a TTM P/E ratio of 50.11, with a valuation premium of 259% compared to the CSI 300 [47]

Summary of China Healthcare Global Markets Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China healthcare and pharmaceuticals sector** and discusses the outlook for 2026, emphasizing the importance of innovation for Chinese firms aiming to expand overseas [1][2]. Key Insights - **Sector Performance**: The healthcare sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the CSI 300 Health Care index declining by **12%** while the CSI 300 rose by **3%** from early September to early December [1]. - **Profit-Taking and Fund Rotation**: The underperformance is attributed to profit-taking and fund rotation towards AI themes rather than deteriorating fundamentals. The MSCI China Health Care index still shows a **64% YTD rise**, outperforming the **33%** rise of MSCI China [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The P/E ratios for the CSI 300 Health Care and MSCI China Health Care indices are at **2.2x** and **1.6x** respectively, indicating a comfortable valuation level at a five-year low [2]. Business Development (BD) Trends - **Continued Growth in BD**: The report predicts sustained growth in business development, particularly in out-licensing of Chinese molecules to overseas buyers, driven by: 1. Increased R&D investment in the pharmaceutical sector, with a **CAGR of 10%** for China, surpassing the global average of **4%** [10]. 2. Cost and efficiency advantages of Chinese firms in drug discovery and patient enrollment, being **2-3x** and **2-5x** faster than their overseas counterparts [11]. 3. Stabilization of geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the US, which is expected to remain favorable through 2026 [11]. Market Challenges - **Domestic Market Uncertainty**: The report expresses uncertainty regarding a rebound in the domestic market, particularly for medical devices, due to unresolved channel inventory issues and tightening medical insurance expenditures, which account for **30-40%** of hospital and pharmacy revenues [17]. - **Potential Risks**: Key risks include setbacks in business development, an oversupply of IPOs affecting market liquidity, continued tightening of medical insurance, and geopolitical uncertainties [27]. Investment Opportunities - **Promising Companies**: The report identifies several companies likely to excel in 1H26, including: - **Hengrui**: Strong R&D pipeline and business development track record [26]. - **Innovent** and **BeOne**: Expected to achieve positive earnings inflection points [26]. - **Wuxi XDC**: Strong position in the ADC CRO space [26]. - **Mindray**: Anticipated benefits from tender results translating into revenue [26]. Innovations and Future Trends - **Emerging Modalities**: The report highlights the potential of RNAi-related therapies to lead the next wave of out-licensing, alongside the ongoing interest in antibody-drug conjugates and GLP-1s [20]. - **AI in Healthcare**: The potential for generative AI to transform healthcare is acknowledged, particularly in drug R&D, telehealth, and medical imaging analysis [21]. - **Commercial Health Insurance**: The introduction of new commercial health insurance is expected to drive innovative drug growth, contingent on collaboration among stakeholders [22]. Financial Performance - **Healthcare Sector Performance**: In 2025, the healthcare sector outperformed the broader market, with MSCI China Healthcare reporting a **58%** YTD surge compared to **31%** for MSCI China [30]. - **Biotech and CRO Performance**: Biotech and CRO sectors reported stronger financial results, with A-share healthcare companies showing a **2%** decline in revenue but a **2%** increase in net profit in 1H25 [32]. Conclusion - The China healthcare sector is positioned for growth driven by innovation and business development, despite facing challenges in the domestic market and potential geopolitical risks. The focus on R&D and the advantages of Chinese firms in drug development present significant investment opportunities moving forward.

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Medicine (600276.SH) announced that its subsidiary, Beijing Shengdi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the clinical trial of SHR-2906 injection, which is expected to begin shortly [1] Group 1: Product Development - SHR-2906 injection is a self-developed therapeutic biological product aimed at regulating glucose and lipid metabolism, controlling weight, and improving metabolic environment [1] - The product is anticipated to have a synergistic effect in reducing energy intake and promoting energy expenditure, potentially offering clinical efficacy in treating overweight and obesity [1] - Currently, there are no similar drugs approved for market release domestically or internationally [1] Group 2: Financial Investment - The cumulative research and development investment for the SHR-2906 injection project has reached approximately 17.06 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Heng Rui Medicine (01276.HK) announced that its subsidiary, Beijing Shengdi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the clinical trial of SHR-2906 injection, which will commence soon [1] Group 2 - The approval signifies a positive development for the company, indicating progress in its drug development pipeline [1] - The initiation of clinical trials is a critical step towards potential commercialization of SHR-2906, which may enhance the company's market position [1] - This news may attract investor interest, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Medicine (01276.HK) has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for clinical trial notifications for multiple drug candidates, indicating progress in its research and development pipeline [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company and its subsidiaries, Shanghai Heng Rui Medicine Co., Ltd., Shandong Shengdi Medicine Co., Ltd., and Chengdu Shengdi Medicine Co., Ltd., have been granted approval for clinical trials of HRS-6208 capsules, HRS-6209 capsules, HRS-8080 tablets, HRS-1358 tablets, and HRS-5041 tablets [1]