Core Viewpoint - The company, Gindal Group, has undergone a significant organizational restructuring aimed at streamlining operations and enhancing management efficiency in response to declining business volume and market conditions [2][6]. Organizational Restructuring - The restructuring includes merging the Engineering Management Center and Cost Management Center into a new "Engineering and Cost Management Center" and establishing a Supply Chain Management Center [2][3]. - The company has reduced its regional companies from five to four and consolidated its city companies into ten regional companies, transitioning from a three-tier management model to a "2.5-tier" model [2][5]. - The new structure emphasizes a more efficient and flat management approach, with the headquarters acting as the decision-making center and directly managing regional companies [5][6]. Management Changes - Key personnel changes include the reassignment of executives, such as the former chairman of the Southern Region, Du Hong, who has been appointed as the general manager of the Eastern Region [3][4]. - The company has retained the "Investment Management Working Group" and "Performance Management Working Group," while dissolving others [3]. Business Focus - The company aims to focus on core cities and strategically abandon less critical markets due to a decline in sales and project turnover [6]. - The strategic direction remains centered on real estate development, with aspirations for breakthroughs in this sector despite current operational challenges [6]. Financial Outlook - Gindal Group anticipates a net loss of between 3.4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to decreased sales volume and revenue [6]. - The company has resumed land acquisitions in key cities, driven by improved market conditions and reduced debt pressure, with cash reserves of approximately 19.38 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.82% as of the end of Q1 2025 [7].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 地产行业属性与传统产能概念差别很大，直接出台相关反内卷政策的概率不高，但也会受到一 些间接影响。反内卷一定程度上将缓和物价下行压力，有助于降低实际利率，但可能对生产、 就业和收入等总量数据造成一定压力。关键还是需求端扩张性政策的配合，既提升居民就业和 收入预期，反内卷又降低实际利率，如此方能更有效地提振地产需求；但如果没有收入提升预 期，物价的提升反而会压制实际可支配收入，提振地产需求依赖总需求扩张引致的良性通胀， 而非供给侧优化之下的成本上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期有所提振， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [5]. Core Insights - The overall market in Q2 2025 shows weak transaction volumes, stable prices lacking trends, and increasing inventory with heightened de-stocking pressure [3]. - Only 19% of the 27 cities analyzed exhibit signs of market bottoming, indicating a general trend of "volume contraction, price stagnation, and inventory pressure" [12]. - The new housing market is experiencing a downturn, with first-tier cities showing a significant slowdown in sales growth, while the second-hand housing market demonstrates relative resilience but with increasing regional disparities [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Decline and Lengthening De-stocking - The report highlights that the real estate cycle varies significantly across cities due to localized policies and differing reliance on land finance [8]. - A comprehensive scoring model based on seven core indicators is used to assess the real estate cycle of each city, categorizing them into four stages: bottoming, rising, topping, and declining [8][9]. 2. Price Trends: Q2 New and Second-hand Housing Prices Decline - In Q2 2025, new housing prices experienced a slight decline after a period of stabilization, with 85% of cities unable to sustain price increases for more than two months [17]. - Second-hand housing prices also fell, with 78% of cities still in a downward trend by June [17][19]. 3. Transaction Volume: Weak Recovery and Increased Volatility - First-tier cities maintained an upward trend in new housing transactions until June, where a decline of 12% was noted [22]. - Second-tier cities saw a 15% year-on-year drop in new housing transactions in Q2, reflecting greater inventory pressure and declining buyer confidence [22][27]. 4. Demand Entering a Tug-of-War Phase Leading to Rising Inventory Cycles - The de-stocking cycle for first-tier cities increased to 20 months by June 2025, indicating intensified market supply-demand conflicts [29]. - Second-tier cities faced even longer de-stocking cycles, reaching 23 months, highlighting structural issues such as declining population attraction and excess land supply [29]. 5. Company Profit Forecasts - The report includes profit forecasts for key companies, with several companies rated as "Accumulate" based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [32].

Core Viewpoint - The delivery of residential properties remains a crucial task for the real estate market in 2025, with a notable decline in delivery volumes compared to the previous year, indicating a shift in focus for companies from "guaranteeing delivery" to seeking development opportunities [1][9]. Delivery Performance - In the first half of 2025, 55 real estate companies delivered over 500,000 units, with 15 companies delivering more than 10,000 units each [1]. - Major companies like Greenland Group, Sunac China, and Jianye Group saw delivery declines exceeding 50% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The top three companies in terms of delivery volume were Country Garden (75,000 units), Poly Developments (65,000 units), and China Overseas Property (42,155 units), with the top ten companies accounting for 56.46% of total deliveries [2][1]. Industry Trends - The pressure to ensure delivery is easing as the peak delivery period has passed, allowing companies to shift their focus towards development and operational strategies [1][9]. - Companies like Country Garden and Sunac China are actively working on completing their delivery commitments while also restructuring their financing to align with current market conditions [3][4]. Innovations in Delivery - Some companies have begun implementing innovative delivery methods, such as "delivery and certificate issuance" on-site, enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [10]. - The focus on improving delivery quality includes better communication with homeowners and offering personalized services during the delivery process [10]. Strategic Shifts - The industry is witnessing a strategic shift where companies are prioritizing product quality, operational efficiency, and asset management over mere scale [11][12]. - Companies are categorizing their strategies into three main types: product-focused, light-asset models, and asset operation, reflecting a more nuanced approach to market challenges [11].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant block trading activity on July 21, with a total transaction volume of 1.717 billion yuan across 75 stocks, indicating notable investor interest in specific companies [1]. Group 1: Trading Activity - A total of 75 stocks had block trades, with a total transaction value of 1.717 billion yuan [1]. - The top three stocks by transaction value were SAIC Motor Group (1.57 billion yuan), Tianwei Food (1.55 billion yuan), and Sifang Co., Ltd. (1.07 billion yuan) [1]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - Among the stocks traded, 10 stocks were sold at par value, 5 at a premium, and 60 at a discount [1]. - The stocks with the highest premium rates were Jiangsu Shentong (2.64%), Jindi Group (1.83%), and Minsheng Bank (1.11%) [1]. - The stocks with the highest discount rates were Langke Intelligent (27.09%), Energy Iron Han (25.78%), and Betta Pharmaceuticals (22.86%) [1]. Group 3: Institutional Trading - The top stocks by institutional buying were SAIC Motor Group (1.57 billion yuan), XCMG Machinery (1.04 billion yuan), and Milky Way (77.6 million yuan) [2]. - The top stocks by institutional selling included North Copper Industry (30.9 million yuan), Jindi Group (15.9 million yuan), and New Strong Link (3.5 million yuan) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the volatile market, credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined, while credit bond yields dropped more significantly. Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads generally compressed slightly. Spreads of external ratings AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively. Spreads also declined when classified by administrative levels [2][9][15]. - Most industrial bond spreads decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads declined, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased. Spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds also decreased [2][18]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the decline of certificates of deposit, with the short - to - medium - term performing relatively strongly [2][21]. - The excess spreads of 5Y industrial bonds and 3Y urban investment bonds slightly decreased [2][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit Bonds Outperformed Interest - Rate Bonds in the Volatile Market - Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined. The yields of 1Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 3Y and 10Y remained flat [2][5]. - Credit bond yields dropped more significantly. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y credit bonds decreased to varying degrees [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline. Rating spreads and term spreads showed obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Slightly Compressed - By external ratings, the spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [9]. - By administrative levels, the spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - level platforms decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [15]. 3. Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decreased - Real - estate bonds: Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads decreased by 2 - 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased by 1BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 7BP [2][18]. - Other industrial bonds: The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA coal bonds decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the spreads of AAA and AA + steel bonds decreased by 2BP and 4BP respectively; and the spreads of all levels of chemical bonds decreased by 3BP [2][18]. 4. The Yields of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds Followed the Decline of Certificates of Deposit, with the Short - to - Medium - Term Performing Relatively Strongly - 1Y secondary and perpetual bonds: Yields decreased by 2 - 3BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP [21]. - 3Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 2BP, and spreads decreased by 2 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds decreased by 3 - 4BP, and spreads decreased by 3 - 4BP [21]. - 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of AA + and above perpetual bonds decreased by 1BP, and spreads increased by 1BP, while the yields of AA perpetual bonds decreased by 4BP, and spreads decreased by 2BP [21]. 5. The Excess Spreads of 5Y Industrial Bonds and 3Y Urban Investment Bonds Slightly Decreased - AAA 3Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads remained at 3.82BP, at the 1.32% quantile since 2015; 5Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.86BP to 7.65BP, at the 4.18% quantile since 2015 [24]. - Urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.65BP to 3.75BP, at the 0.29% quantile; urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bond excess spreads increased by 0.09BP to 10.21BP, at the 10.93% quantile [24]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. Historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Industrial and urban investment bond credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are provided, including how to calculate spreads, which samples to select, and which samples to exclude [31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with a notable performance divergence among listed companies, as many report substantial losses while a few manage to turn profits [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - As of July 17, 2025, 61 listed real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with a total expected loss ranging from 342.56 billion to 464.97 billion [1]. - Out of these, 24 companies anticipate profits while 37 expect losses, indicating that 60% of the companies are projected to report losses [1][2]. - The overall trend shows a decline in performance, with companies like China Vanke and Greenland Holdings shifting from profit to loss, while others like Joy City and Urban Construction Development have managed to turn losses into profits [1][2]. Group 2: Companies Turning Profits - In the first half of 2025, 24 companies are expected to achieve profits totaling between 68.68 billion and 80.16 billion, with 12 companies successfully reversing previous losses [2][3]. - Urban Construction Development is projected to report a net profit of 4.4 billion to 6.54 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of up to 575.14% [3][7]. - Other companies that have turned profitable include Zhongzhou Holdings, City Investment Holdings, and Joy City, showcasing resilience in a challenging market [2][3]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Losses - Among the 37 companies forecasting losses, 13 are expected to report their first-ever losses, including Shahe Co., Xiangjiang Holdings, and Greenland Holdings [8][11]. - The total expected loss for these companies ranges from 422.72 billion to 533.64 billion, with Vanke leading with a projected loss of 100 billion to 120 billion [8][11]. - Other notable companies with significant losses include Jindi Group, which anticipates a loss of 34 billion to 42 billion, and Xinda Real Estate, expecting a loss of 35 billion to 39 billion [11][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, but signs of stabilization are emerging, particularly in first-tier and some strong second-tier cities [14]. - Analysts suggest that the second half of 2025 may present a turning point for the industry, with potential recovery driven by policy adjustments and improved buyer confidence [13][14]. - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 18,364.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.8%, but the rate of decline is narrowing [13].

Group 1 - Gindai Group has experienced a decline for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -7.28% [1] - Gindai Group, founded in Shenzhen in 1988 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2001, has developed into a comprehensive listed company focusing on real estate development and related diversified businesses [1] - Two funds under Xingquan Global Fund have entered the top ten shareholders of Gindai Group, both being new additions in the first quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The two funds are Xingquan Business Model Mixed (LOF) A and Xingquan New Vision Open Mixed, with year-to-date returns of 6.58% and 6.12% respectively [1] - Xingquan Business Model Mixed (LOF) A ranks 2604 out of 4519 in its category, while Xingquan New Vision Open Mixed ranks 939 out of 2296 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts of real estate companies indicate a mixed recovery, with some companies turning losses into profits while others continue to face significant losses [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of July 17, 2025, 25 real estate companies listed on A-shares have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 10 companies, including Poly Developments and Binjiang Group, reporting profits [1][3]. - Poly Developments leads with a forecasted net profit of 27.35 billion yuan, although this represents a decline compared to previous years [3]. - Binjiang Group is noted for its impressive profit growth, with an expected net profit increase of 40.01% to 69.98%, attributed to a higher volume of property deliveries [5][6]. Group 2: Profitability Trends - Among the 25 companies, 15 are expected to report losses, with notable companies like Kinka Real Estate and Financial Street showing potential for reduced losses in the upcoming period [3][4]. - Companies such as China Communications Real Estate and Greenland Holdings have seen their losses increase, while others like Jin Di Group have reported significant losses due to reduced sales and asset impairment provisions [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a recovery driven by policy support, with significant increases in land sales and new housing transactions in cities like Beijing [7][8]. - The focus on high-quality product offerings and understanding consumer needs is emphasized as critical for companies to enhance their market competitiveness [8].

Group 1 - The company, through its subsidiary Vision Century Investments (China) Limited, provides a guarantee for a loan of up to RMB 57.5 million to Link JV Holdings Limited, with a maximum guarantee amount of RMB 28.75 million [1][2][3] - The loan is intended to support the development of a project located in Shanghai, with a loan term of up to 12 months [1][2] - The guarantee falls within the authorized limit approved by the company's board and shareholders, which allows for a total guarantee amount of up to RMB 10 billion [1][2][3] Group 2 - The company has a total external guarantee balance of RMB 17.991 billion, which accounts for 30.47% of the company's audited net assets attributable to shareholders for 2024 [3] - The guarantees provided to subsidiaries amount to RMB 12.779 billion, while guarantees to joint ventures and associates total RMB 5.212 billion [3] - There are no overdue guarantees reported by the company [3]