Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [7] Core Viewpoints - Since Q2 of this year, real estate data has shown a continuous downward trend, yet there has been a notable hot sales performance for quality new properties in multiple regions. This contradiction is understood as a release of improvement-driven demand due to the introduction of high-efficiency residential projects, although the overall new housing market stabilization will require more time [2][4] - The recovery of the real estate industry and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy implementations. The main drivers for the recovery are the decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments. The real estate sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rates) surpassing that of the numerator (fundamentals), leading to a potential rebound in stock prices [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to July, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in China decreased by 6.5% in value and 4.0% in area year-on-year. In July alone, sales amounted to 532.5 billion, down 14.1% year-on-year, with a sales area of 57.09 million square meters, down 8.4% year-on-year [4] - The price of newly built commercial residential properties in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 1.1%, 2.8%, and 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month. Notably, Shanghai saw a price increase of 6.1% due to concentrated demand for high-end and improved housing [4] Policy Outlook - Given the weakening trend in the new housing market, there is significant room for future policy adjustments. Recent policy changes in Beijing and Shanghai include optimizing purchase restrictions and increasing support for housing funds, with expectations for Shenzhen to follow suit [5] - The year-on-year decline in new construction has been narrowing, attributed to improved cost-effectiveness of new land parcels, enhancing developers' profit outlook. From January to July, new construction area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, but the decline has been narrowing for two consecutive months [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks to watch include China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Hold) [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56 points, above the six-month moving average, with an increase of 1.51% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 31,769.48 million yuan [1] Stocks Breaking the Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 83 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - ST Yilianzhong (18.16%) - Kunlun Technology (7.79%) - Huazhi Wine (7.67%) [1] Detailed Stock Performance - The following table summarizes the performance of selected stocks that broke the six-month moving average: | Stock Code | Stock Name | Daily Change (%) | Turnover Rate (%) | Six-Month Average (yuan) | Latest Price (yuan) | Deviation Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300096 | ST Yilianzhong | 19.90 | 6.74 | 4.08 | 4.82 | 18.16 | | 831152 | Kunlun Technology | 11.70 | 11.86 | 20.98 | 22.62 | 7.79 | | 300755 | Huazhi Wine | 8.88 | 5.96 | 18.21 | 19.61 | 7.67 | | 600539 | Shitou Co. | 10.02 | 11.47 | 11.30 | 11.97 | 5.94 | | 603198 | Yingjia Wine | 7.22 | 2.79 | 44.61 | 47.08 | 5.54 | | 000002 | Vanke A | 9.15 | 8.16 | 6.81 | 7.16 | 5.20 | | 688646 | ST Yifei | 5.53 | 4.39 | 31.37 | 32.82 | 4.63 | | 003041 | True Love Home | 4.93 | 6.05 | 28.37 | 29.59 | 4.29 | | 839371 | Oufu Industry | 4.59 | 4.82 | 11.15 | 11.62 | 4.20 | | 601933 | Yonghui Supermarket | 5.04 | 5.91 | 5.03 | 5.21 | 3.66 | | 600325 | Huafa Co. | 4.19 | 4.88 | 5.05 | 5.22 | 3.37 | | 601238 | GAC Group | 3.04 | 1.05 | 7.89 | 8.13 | 3.00 | | 600657 | Xinda Real Estate | 3.16 | 2.50 | 4.13 | 4.25 | 2.91 | | 603108 | Runda Medical | 3.00 | 7.99 | 18.43 | 18.90 | 2.54 | | 600988 | Chifeng Gold | 4.03 | 5.40 | 24.67 | 25.30 | 2.54 | | 000069 | Overseas Chinese Town A | 3.86 | 3.88 | 2.36 | 2.42 | 2.44 | | 600872 | Zhongju Gaoxin | 3.29 | 4.97 | 19.37 | 19.78 | 2.14 | | 003000 | Jin Zai Food | 2.46 | 7.48 | 13.07 | 13.35 | 2.13 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai has introduced new real estate policies aimed at optimizing housing purchase regulations, which are expected to stimulate the housing market and improve sales in the outer ring areas starting from August 26, 2025 [1][2][11]. Policy Adjustments - The new policies include reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund policies, improving personal housing credit, and refining property tax regulations [2][7]. - Housing purchase limits have been relaxed, allowing eligible residents to buy unlimited properties outside the outer ring, while single adults will be treated similarly to family units in terms of purchase limits [7][11]. - The maximum loan amount for housing provident funds has been increased, with first-time buyers now eligible for up to 216 million yuan, and second-time buyers up to 149.5 million yuan [7][8]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the real estate sector saw significant gains, with the real estate development sector rising by 3.4%, and individual companies like Vanke A and Rongsheng Development experiencing increases of over 9% and 8%, respectively [5][6]. - The policy is expected to alleviate inventory pressure in the outer ring areas, where 80% of the inventory is located, and improve the balance in the housing market [11][13]. Implications for Buyers - The changes are anticipated to benefit two main groups: middle-class families looking to upgrade their homes and those previously limited by purchase restrictions who now have more flexibility [12][14]. - The removal of interest rate differences between first and second homes is expected to reduce financial burdens for buyers, facilitating the release of pent-up demand [14]. Strategic Outlook - The policy aligns with broader market trends observed in other major cities, indicating a shift towards more flexible housing regulations to stimulate demand and support economic growth [11][13].

Group 1 - The real estate development sector increased by 3.22% on August 25, with Wantong Development leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56, up 1.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07, up 2.26% [1] - Notable individual stock performances included Wantong Development with a closing price of 12.77, up 9.99%, and Vanke A at 7.16, up 9.15% [1] Group 2 - The real estate development sector saw a net inflow of 1.57 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 564 million yuan [2] - Main fund inflows for Vanke A amounted to 1.087 billion yuan, representing 19.35% of its trading volume, while retail investors had a net outflow of 588 million yuan [3] - Other companies like Jindi Group and Rongsheng Development also experienced significant fund flows, with Jindi Group seeing a net inflow of 154 million yuan [3]

(本文来自第一财经) 万通发展（维权）封板涨停，万科A涨超7%，金地集团涨超6%，特发服务、绿地控股、华联控股等多 股涨超5%，保利发展等跟涨。 ...

Market Overview - On August 25, A-shares experienced a collective rise in the morning session, with the ChiNext Index surging by 3% at one point. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index was up by 2.24% [3][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 20 trillion yuan, reaching 20,782 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5,677 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] Index Performance - The North China 50 Index, which had been leading in gains this year, suddenly dropped into negative territory near the midday close [5] - The Sci-Tech 50 Index initially surged nearly 6% but later adjusted to a gain of 2.35% by midday [8] Semiconductor Equipment Sector - The semiconductor equipment index fluctuated before turning negative, with stocks like Jingzhida and Dazhu Laser seeing gains of over 2% [11] - Notable stocks in the semiconductor sector included North Huachuang, which fell by 0.83%, and Zhongwei Company, which dropped by 2.06% [12] Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth and rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks saw a significant surge, with Jinli Permanent Magnet rising by 18.38% and several other stocks hitting the daily limit [14] - The recent issuance of the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Separation" has positively impacted the sector, allowing more companies to obtain rare earth quotas [14] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector experienced a collective rebound, with Vanke Enterprises rising by 15.67% [17] - Vanke reported that it has over 60 million square meters of undeveloped projects and land available for development, indicating a stable supply pipeline [20] Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector also showed strength, with Shede Liquor hitting the daily limit and other brands like Shui Jing Fang and Jiu Gui Jiu rising over 6% [20] - Analysts suggest that the liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies likely to benefit from adjustments in channel structures and market expansion opportunities as consumer demand gradually improves [22]

8月25日，"房可圆"微信公号发文称，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，促进房 地产市场平稳健康发展，8月25日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务 局、人民银行上海市分行、市公积金管理中心等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的 通知》（以下简称《通知》），包括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人 住房房产税等政策。《通知》自2025年8月26日起施行。 一、调减住房限购政策 为更好满足居民改善性需求，促进宜居安居、职住平衡，《通知》明确进一步调减住房限购政策。一是 符合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数。对符合本市住房购买条件的居民家庭，包括本市户籍居民家 庭、在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1年及以上的非本市户籍居民家庭，在外环外购买住房不 限套数，包括新建商品住房和二手住房。二是成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策。 按照上述规定，沪籍居民家庭和沪籍成年单身人士，在外环外购买住房不限套数；在外环内限购2套住 房。非沪籍居民家庭和非沪籍成年单身人士，自购房之日前在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房 ...

8月25日，"房可圆"微信公号发文称，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，促进房 地产市场平稳健康发展，8月25日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务 局、人民银行上海市分行、市公积金管理中心等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的 通知》（以下简称《通知》），包括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人 住房房产税等政策。《通知》自2025年8月26日起施行。 一、调减住房限购政策 为更好满足居民改善性需求，促进宜居安居、职住平衡，《通知》明确进一步调减住房限购政策。一是 符合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数。对符合本市住房购买条件的居民家庭，包括本市户籍居民家 庭、在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1年及以上的非本市户籍居民家庭，在外环外购买住房不 限套数，包括新建商品住房和二手住房。二是成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策。 按照上述规定，沪籍居民家庭和沪籍成年单身人士，在外环外购买住房不限套数；在外环内限购2套住 房。非沪籍居民家庭和非沪籍成年单身人士，自购房之日前在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房 ...

Core Viewpoint - On August 25, Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies to better meet residents' housing needs and promote a stable and healthy real estate market, effective from August 26, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Housing Purchase Policy Adjustments - The housing purchase limit will be reduced, allowing eligible residents to buy an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring road, including both new and second-hand homes [2][8]. - Local residents and single adults can purchase up to two homes within the inner ring road, while non-local residents can buy one home if they have paid social insurance or income tax for three years [2][9]. Group 2: Housing Provident Fund Policy Optimization - The maximum loan amount for housing provident fund loans will increase by 15% for those purchasing new green buildings rated two stars or above, with the first loan limit rising from 1.6 million to 1.84 million yuan [4][10]. - Homebuyers can withdraw their provident fund to pay the down payment for new homes, and this withdrawal will not affect their loan limit [4][10]. Group 3: Personal Housing Loan Interest Rate Mechanism - The interest rate pricing mechanism for personal housing loans will be optimized, with no distinction between first and second homes, allowing banks to set rates based on market conditions and customer risk [5][10]. Group 4: Property Tax Policy Improvements - Non-local residents purchasing their first home will be exempt from property tax, while those buying a second or additional homes will receive a tax exemption for 60 square meters per person after calculating the total housing area [6][10]. Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, real estate stocks surged, with Vanke A hitting a six-month high, and several other companies also experiencing significant gains, indicating positive market sentiment towards the new policies [12][13].

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting transaction trends and market sentiments during Week 33 of 2025. Key Highlights - **Inventory Buyback Initiatives**: Policymakers are preparing to mobilize central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to purchase unsold homes from distressed property developers. The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy report emphasizes the need to enhance existing supportive measures, including the ARH relending program, which has an issuance balance of Rmb16.2 billion by the end of Q3 2024 against a total quota of Rmb300 billion, aimed at stabilizing the housing market and optimizing financing systems for the property sector [1][2]. Market Performance - **Transaction Volumes**: - Primary market transactions increased by **9% week-over-week (wow)** but decreased by **17% year-over-year (yoy)**. - Secondary market transactions decreased by **2% wow** and **1% yoy**. - Overall, the market sentiment remained stable, with new home search activities unchanged week-over-week, while secondary home visitor traffic improved by **3% wow**. However, secondary price expectations from agents weakened by **0.7 percentage points (pp) wow**, marking the second consecutive week of softening [2][5]. Key Data Points - **Sales Performance**: - New home sales volume averaged **+9% wow** and **-17% yoy**, with tier-3 cities and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) outperforming. - Secondary transactions averaged **-2% wow** and **-1% yoy**, with negative price appreciation expectations from agents but not homeowners. - Year-to-date (YTD) primary gross floor area (GFA) sold was down **7% yoy**, while secondary GFA sold was up **12% yoy** [5][25]. Inventory and Valuation Insights - **Inventory Levels**: - Inventory balance decreased by **0.1% wow** and **4.0% from end-2024 levels**, with inventory months at **25.8** (compared to an average of **26.0** in July 2025) [35]. - **Valuation Trends**: - Offshore coverage developers saw an average share price increase of **6% wow** (compared to **3% for MSCI China**), with CR Land and Greentown outperforming at **+11%** and **+10% wow**, respectively. Onshore developers averaged **+2% wow** [46][48]. Completions and New Starts - **Completions**: - The GSPC tracker indicates a **20% yoy decline** in completions for August 2025, compared to a **29% yoy decline** in July 2025 [40]. - **New Starts**: - New starts are expected to record a mid-teens level yoy decline in August, based on land sales trends in 300 cities and a **+2pp wow** increase in nationwide cement shipment ratios [40]. Implications for the Market - The report suggests that property sales in approximately **75 cities** indicate a likely **17% yoy decline** in presales for top-100 developers in August, compared to a **27% decline** in July [7]. - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with ongoing challenges in sales and price expectations, despite some positive movements in specific segments [6][7]. Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing a plateau in transaction volumes, with mixed performance across different city tiers. Policymaker interventions and market stabilization efforts are crucial as the sector navigates ongoing challenges and seeks to transition to a new development model [1][2][6].