房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 止跌回稳压力加大，后续政策具备较大发 力空间 核心观点 我们不同于市场的见解： 1、今年Q2以来房地产数据持续下行趋势，但同时我们观测到多地优质新盘热销。 对于这两者之间的矛盾，我们的理解为，今年以来高得房率四代宅、新规项目陆续 入市，有效释放改善型需求，但是目前"好房子"体量相对较小，并且二手房以价 换量对于新房也存在挤压效应，新房市场整体企稳仍需要一定时间。 2、不需要过度猜测政策节奏，实际上地产行业及地产股价的修复并不完全依赖于 政策具体的出台时间。无风险利率的下行和行业风险评价降低是推动地产股修复的 主要原因。实际上房地产行业进入下行阶段以后，社会的中高息回报资产明显减 少，自然会带动无风险利率下行。前几年地产股价明显下行，是因为分子端的影响 超过了分母端；目前房地产进入了新的筑底阶段，以及无风险利率进入低利率区 间，分母端的影响超过了分子端，从而将带来未来股价的回升。而在这个过程中， 政策的出台节奏快一点慢一点，强一点弱一点，都不实质性改变整件事情的基本预 期。所以，我们认为只要对国家治理能力抱有信心，那么投资者自然就会对政策能 托底地产存在信心。考虑房地产的底部 ...

以下文章来源于克而瑞产品测评 ，作者产品力研究中心 克而瑞产品测评 . 聚焦房地产产品、交付研究及产品力、交付力测评 如何平衡空间的开放性与居住的隐私性，成为第四代住宅设计中必须关注的问题。 文/产品力研究中心 第四代住宅，凭借高赠送面积、空中庭院创新场景等优势赢得市场关注，但邻居之间的视线干扰，也是居 住者难以回避的尴尬问题。如何平衡空间的开放性与居住的隐私性，成为第四代住宅设计中必须关注的问 题。近期，已有住宅产品通过 创新的空间布局和结构设计，彻底改变了传统露台对视的尴尬局面， 让第 四代住宅的居住私密性得到保障。 "奇偶层错位布局+上层实体墙"基本解决对视问题 01 重庆海成云湖郡项目以创新的垂直空间规划，彻底解决了上下层对视问题。 以127㎡户型为例，奇数层与偶数层的空中露台在南北方向错位排布，同时每个露台上方均对应为上层住 户的实体墙结构。这种设计既实现了空间错位，又 通过实体墙的物理阻隔彻底切断了来自上层的俯视干 扰， 居住者在露台上活动时无需担心被楼上邻居窥视， 私密性得到保障。 图：重庆海成云湖郡127㎡户型 在同层视线阻隔方面，海成云湖郡同样有所规划，奇数层南向露台居中设置于主卧外侧，来自 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing innovation and iteration in residential products, particularly in the light luxury segment, driven by evolving consumer demands and preferences Group 1: Fourth Generation Residential Privacy and Lighting Optimization - Fourth generation residential products are continuously innovating to enhance privacy and lighting, with examples like Jiaxing Fuxiang Garden implementing effective privacy protection measures using frosted glass and vegetation [2][6] - Chongqing Longfor Yuhujing employs innovative spatial separation solutions to eliminate visual interference, achieving a new standard of privacy in fourth generation residences [8] Group 2: Community Focus on Children's Learning and Relaxation Spaces - The report emphasizes the importance of creating children's learning and growth spaces within communities, as families with children represent a significant portion of the target market [14] - Projects like Huafa Zhuhai Bay and Beijing招商序 are innovating in children's activity spaces, integrating educational elements and promoting a balanced lifestyle [17][18] Group 3: Localization and Cultural Integration - The report discusses the shift from superficial regional expressions to deeper explorations of local culture in residential products, with projects like Chengdu招商锦城序 incorporating local natural beauty into their landscape design [26][28] - Guangzhou's Yuexiu Longyue Xiguan focuses on local culinary habits, such as providing specialized kitchen designs for soup preparation, reflecting a commitment to regional lifestyle [30][31] Group 4: Small Plot Development and Value Enhancement - The report notes the increasing interest in small land plots by developers, which, despite spatial limitations, can foster innovation and lead to high-quality, unique products [40] - Shanghai Zhongtie World Expo Cloud Realm exemplifies this trend by creating a community entrance that enhances the living experience and fosters community interaction within a compact space [41][43]

随着各地政府对于第四代住宅的政策扶植，越来越多的第四代住宅进入市场。更高的得房率以及独特的外形，让第四代住宅对比传统住宅成为 销售上致命的降维打击。但是开发商最终需要面对一个客观的问题，即第四代住宅的成本问题。 那么，第四代住宅会带来哪些成本上的影响呢？它和售价的关系是怎么样的呢？它和销售价格又会产生什么样的联动呢？相信所有开发商在拿 地之前都会好好地算一笔账，看看这个投入到底值不值呢？ 第四代住宅设计改变 为了探讨问题的方便，我们将项目所在地设置于江苏苏州，其他区域的项目可以按照当地具体的政策做相应的调整。 从政策面来看，苏州政府目前出台两个与第四代住宅相关的政策。一个文件是《苏州市改善型住宅项目规划管理相关技术要点（试行）》，此 要点主要确定了第四代住宅的可以做空间花园的面积50平方米，且需要两层通高设置。 另外，在此之前，政府出台了《市政府办公室关于印发住宅空中庭院和共享平台规划建设管理指 引（试行）的通知》明确了空中花园的使用用 途，并确定了建筑日照分析以及建筑间距以主体建筑为准，即空中庭院不纳入建筑间距以及日照的计算范围。戳我，让成本控得住，不超支 为了更好地执行市政府的政策，各地也推出了区域的细则 ...

Group 1 - In July, the Wuhan real estate market showed a "reverse warming" trend during the traditional off-season, with new residential property registrations reaching 10,405 units, a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - The market is transitioning from scale expansion to quality competition, forming a positive cycle of "good houses - good land - good market" [1] - Various policy incentives, such as a down payment ratio reduced to 15% and increased public housing loan limits, have significantly lowered the barriers to home buying and boosted consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - The land market reflects the warming signals, with intense bidding for multiple plots in July, including a residential land in Hankou that sold at a premium rate of 54.36%, setting a new high for the year [2] - Developers are now more willing to invest in "good houses," indicating a recognition of the long-term value of the Wuhan market [2] - The shift in focus from "who sells more" to "who does better" among real estate companies is driving a transformation towards quality competition, emphasizing good housing, good amenities, and good services [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the comprehensive research and analysis services provided by CRIC Research Center, focusing on the real estate industry, including market trends, risk warnings, and strategic insights for real estate companies [2][6][29]. Group 1: Research Services Overview - CRIC Research Center offers a systematic intelligence customization solution for real estate companies, providing insights across ten categories including macro research, market research, corporate governance, project benchmarking, marketing cases, product cases, operational models, corporate depth, corporate financing, and profit models [2][4]. - Each year, the center provides a selection of 50 specialized topics for companies to choose from, tailored to their specific needs [2][4]. Group 2: 2025 Research Highlights - The 2025 China Real Estate Investment Outlook expands its research scope to 297 cities, introducing new indicators such as land supply adjustments and optimizing analysis methods using various mathematical tools [6]. - The report predicts a stable demand for high-end luxury properties, particularly in Shanghai, while competition in cities like Chengdu and Wuhan intensifies [7]. Group 3: Financial Trends and Challenges - In 2024, the operating cash flow of real estate companies, excluding state-owned enterprises, contracted by 16.8%, with private and mixed-ownership companies facing significant pressure [9]. - The financing cash flow for real estate companies showed a net outflow of 343.4 billion, indicating a need for improved competitiveness and transformation [9]. Group 4: Product Trends and Market Dynamics - The analysis of high-quality products in the first half of 2025 indicates a trend of improvement across various dimensions, including space utilization, craftsmanship, public area landscaping, and community amenities [10]. - The light luxury segment is evolving, reflecting changes in buyer preferences and emphasizing localized features and high-quality experiences [11]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The article emphasizes the need for continuous policy support to stabilize the market, with a focus on optimizing and strengthening existing measures [13]. - The overall performance of leading real estate companies showed a year-on-year growth, indicating a potential recovery in the market [13].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the company JianTou has successfully acquired the Guandu Ancient Town land parcel with a premium rate of 9.36%, which increases the difficulty of future development [1] - The recent land auction in Kunming was highly competitive, marking a significant event in the local real estate market after a period of fewer bidding rounds [1] - JianTou previously acquired the North Second Ring Road墨水厂 land parcel at a premium rate of 8.6%, with a floor price exceeding 7000 yuan [1] Group 2 - The墨水厂 land parcel, now named XuanYing Academy, has a small area of 23.5 acres and was initially thought to have low development difficulty due to a low plot ratio of 1.6, allowing for competitive multi-layer elevator apartments [2] - However, discrepancies arose as the project is planned to develop small high-rise buildings despite the low plot ratio, with a maximum building height of 54 meters, allowing for up to 17 floors [5] - The project does not align with the fourth-generation residential design trend, which may limit its market appeal [5] Group 3 - The development progress of XuanYing Academy is likely to be slower than expected, with the project not yet having passed regulatory approval as of mid-July [6] - Although some construction has begun on adjacent affordable housing, the main project has not started, complicating the timeline for a potential launch within the year [6][7] - The current real estate market conditions require new projects to have physical sales offices and model units, which could delay the launch until the end of the year [6]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Kunming has shown significant changes in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in new residential property transactions and a shift in market dynamics towards innovative products [1][15] - The emergence of innovative housing products, particularly those with zero or negative public area, has gained traction among buyers, especially among the younger demographic [1][10] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume of new residential properties in Kunming reached 1.68 million square meters, representing a 22% year-on-year increase, translating to approximately 14,000 units sold [1] - The average monthly sales of new homes were around 2,510 units, indicating a robust market activity [1] Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers in the Kunming real estate market are now 90s generation clients from other provinces and local improvement buyers, favoring well-located, reasonably priced innovative residential products [3][15] - Preferred property sizes are between 130-150 square meters, with total prices ranging from 2.5 to 3 million yuan [3] Product Trends - The market has seen a rise in the popularity of fourth-generation residential products, which have been well-received by buyers, with two projects achieving sales of 448 million yuan and 257 million yuan respectively [8][10] - Traditional high-density projects are losing competitiveness, while projects with high space utilization and advantageous locations remain resilient [10][15] Sales Dynamics - The top-selling projects in the first half of 2025 include several innovative and improvement-oriented developments, contrasting with older, less competitive offerings [7][11] - The introduction of housing ticket projects has provided new avenues for inventory clearance, with significant sales success reported [12][15] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue favoring innovative residential products, with traditional high-density and high-public area projects facing increasing sales pressure [15] - Companies are likely to focus on core areas and zero-public area markets as the new battleground for competition [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing innovation and iteration in residential products, highlighting trends such as the enhancement of privacy and lighting in fourth-generation homes, the continuous evolution of community spaces, the deepening localization of features, and the value creation in small land plots, all reflecting a shift in buyer demands and the upgrade direction of luxury products [3]. Group 1: Fourth-Generation Homes - Fourth-generation residential products are innovating in privacy and lighting, with projects like Jiaxing Fuxiangyuan implementing features such as frosted glass for visual barriers and horizontal grating to maintain natural light [5][10]. - Chongqing Longfor Yuhujing addresses visual interference with a three-dimensional isolation scheme, ensuring zero visual disturbance between units while balancing lighting and privacy [13]. Group 2: Community Space Development - Community space development is increasingly focused on children's learning and relaxation, with projects like Huafa Zhuhai Bay creating age-specific activity areas for children [18]. - Beijing Zhaoshang Xuzu innovatively integrates children's growth spaces with educational policies, offering diverse recreational and training areas [20]. - Other community spaces are also evolving, with projects like Chongqing Longfor Yuhujing enhancing community culture through music halls and gathering spaces [24]. Group 3: Localization of Features - The localization of residential products is moving towards deeper exploration, with projects like Chengdu Zhaoshang Jinchengxu incorporating regional natural beauty into landscape designs [28]. - Guangzhou Yuexiu's localized product line focuses on the unique cultural habits of local residents, such as specialized kitchen designs for soup cooking [31]. - The Tianfu series by Yuexiu integrates local cultural elements into modern living spaces, creating a blend of historical depth and contemporary lifestyle [32]. Group 4: Value Creation in Small Land Plots - Small land plots are gaining popularity among developers, with projects like Shanghai Zhongtie Shibo Yunjing utilizing innovative designs to maximize space and create high-quality living environments [40][41]. - Despite spatial limitations, projects like Shanghai Zhongtie Shibo Yunjing achieve rich landscape experiences and functional diversity through thoughtful design [44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant differences in quality and pricing between new and second-hand residential properties, highlighting that the improved quality of new homes is not reflected in their prices, leading to a shift in buyer preferences towards new properties over older ones [5][21]. Summary by Sections New Property Quality - New properties feature larger living spaces, with examples showing living and dining areas reaching up to 50 square meters and multiple bathrooms in smaller units [1][3][4]. - The design of new homes, such as open-plan layouts, allows for more functional use of space, making them more appealing compared to older properties [4][5]. Price Comparison - The price per square meter of new homes is often lower than that of second-hand homes when comparing actual usable space, leading to a perception that second-hand homes are overpriced [7][6]. - For instance, a new home priced at 3 million yuan for 143 square meters results in a unit price of approximately 21,000 yuan per square meter, while a second-hand home with significant shared space costs about 2,450 yuan per square meter [7][6]. Rental Yield Concerns - The rental yield in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is low, averaging around 1.5%, making buying less attractive compared to renting [10][11]. - In contrast, cities like Tokyo and New York have rental yields around 6%, indicating a stark difference in investment returns [10]. Economic and Market Pressures - Economic uncertainty and job stability concerns are causing potential buyers to hesitate in committing to long-term mortgages, leading to a preference for renting over buying [15][14]. - The high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are limiting the ability of local markets to lower rates, further complicating the housing market dynamics [16][17][19]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that until key economic indicators improve, such as rental yields approaching mortgage rates and a stabilization of income expectations, the housing market may continue to face downward pressure [22][23]. - The potential for future price increases in real estate is contingent upon observable changes in market conditions, which are currently lacking [22][24].