关税扰动降低，双雄份额提升趋势未改 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——黑电行业更新报告 | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 谢丛睿(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090004 | 本报告导读： 越南作为对美产能重要基地，视为对美关税谈判风向标，多数国家达成新关税税率 有所降低，关税扰动降低；黑电双雄份额提升趋势未改，全球供应链韧性强。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.11 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：黑电行业正处于需求复苏与技术升级的窗口期，全球产 能布局（尤其墨西哥、越南）是应对关税挑战的核心策略。中国品 牌在高端化和成本控制上的优势，为行业带来韧 ...

报告导读： 越南作为对美产能重要基地，视为对美关税谈判风向标，多数国家达成新关税 税率有所降低，关税扰动降低；黑电双雄份额提升趋势未改，全球供应链韧性强。 投资建议： 黑电行业正处于需求复苏与技术升级的窗口期，全球产能布局（尤其墨西哥、越南）是应对关 税挑战的核心策略。中国品牌在高端化和成本控制上的优势，为行业带来韧性，通过灵活产能调配和产品 升级，有望维持增长动能。越南关税落地，预计对美主要产能基地的关税在10%~40%左右区间博弈，较 市场前期46%以上的悲观预期有好转，不确定性基本消除。 TCL电子、海信视像并称"双雄"，凭借技术、产能优势占据全球份额。 2024年全球电视市场扭转连续下 滑趋势，大尺寸电视（80英寸及以上）出货量显著增长，消费者偏好持续增强。中国品牌TCL和海信在全 球市场份额稳步上升，逐渐缩小与三星的差距，并抢占高端市场份额。同时，显示技术进入升级周期，三 星和LG等韩企转向OLED，而黑电双雄聚焦MiniLED技术，作为LCD的升级延续。MiniLED渗透率在中国 受"国补"政策刺激快速提升，中长期有望带动黑电厂商盈利能力增强。中国品牌通过体育营销提升全球品 牌声量。 本公众订阅号 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that government subsidies stimulated sales in Q2, leading to continued positive revenue growth. The competitive landscape in the small home appliance sector has improved, driving profit recovery, while leading players in the major appliance sector are helping to concentrate market share, suggesting an increase in holdings [2][29]. - The report recommends focusing on two main investment lines: 1) The improvement in the competitive landscape of small home appliances brings profit elasticity, particularly in the vacuum cleaner sector, which has high growth potential and low penetration rates. The kitchen small appliances sector is gradually returning to growth after two years of decline, with a significant increase in sales during the 618 shopping festival [2][29]. - The report indicates that leading brands in the white goods sector are dominating the current price competition, leading to increased industry concentration. The export performance of major appliance manufacturers is expected to gradually recover as uncertainties around tariff policies are clarified [3][31]. Group 2 - The company Salted Fish's differentiated product, the konjac sauce, achieved over 100 million in monthly sales within 16 months, setting a record for the fastest-selling snack product. The konjac snack segment is still in a high-growth phase, supported by a strong supply chain and channel capabilities [7][8]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence with its own brand "Mowon," developing localized products based on local tastes, which is expected to drive growth in international markets [8][9]. - The report maintains an "increase holdings" rating for the company, projecting EPS of 2.99, 3.73, and 4.63 for 2025-2027, with a target price of 100.00 yuan based on strong performance in konjac products [7][8].

黑电行业深度：黑电高端化还有多少空间 20260629 摘要 2024 年下半年国补政策显著刺激国内彩电市场，Q4 销量同比增长 6%，销额增长 28%。2025 年 Q1 短暂调整后，Q2 重回量价齐升，四 五月份线上线下销量均增长约 15%，销额增速超 20%，表明市场需求 强劲。 国内彩电市场大屏化趋势加速，2024 年 70 英寸以上产品线上线下销量 占比分别达 37%和 53%。主流尺寸从 2016-2022 年的 55 英寸跃升至 2024 年的 75 英寸，预计 2025 年 85 英寸将成主流，高端化趋势明显。 Mini LED 技术在国内市场爆发式增长，2024 年 9-12 月渗透率达 31%，2025 年四五月份线上线下渗透率达 31%和 33%。预计 Mini LED 背光将逐步成为中高端彩电标配，推动产品结构升级。 受国补影响，中系品牌主导国内彩电市场，2024 年中期龙头彩电线上 线下销量份额分别达 86%和 75%，70 英寸以上大屏市场份额分别达 88%和 74%，外资品牌市场份额持续萎缩。 全球高端彩电市场竞争格局变化，2025 年 Q1 三星与 LG 合计份额降至 40%左 ...

消费策略&组合配置：新消费创造成长主线，结构性牛市曙 光已现 20260629 摘要 中国经济增长引擎缺失，但出口复苏有望改善国内经济活动。企业偿债 现金流增速下降，资产负债表修复过半，出口正向冲击或带动高周转消 费修复，个人所得税反弹预示居民收入缓慢修复。 7 月投资策略应规避流动性驱动资产，关注基本面改善的服务消费和高 周转商品消费。新消费核心驱动力在于创造新场景和业态，关注高周转、 低杠杆的服务性消费及耐用消费品出口。 内需方面，消费板块投资偏向"红利加"品种，关注情绪价值消费（潮 玩、宠物）、功能价值消费（AI+）、消费出海和渠道变革（海澜之家 等）。 商贸零售面临供给过剩和需求不足挑战，关注新需求带来的边际机会， 包括传统渠道变革和即时零售崛起。新需求集中于服务性消费，跨境出 海企业需关注供应链、品牌溢价和渠道溢价能力。 2025 年 618 电商大促符合预期，抖音增速超预期，呈现全域协同趋势， 国补品类是增长动力，即时零售表现突出。线下零售渠道调整加速，永 辉超市调改店规模化，胖东来模式门店数量预计快速增长。 Q&A 当前宏观经济背景下，消费板块面临哪些挑战与机遇，尤其是在流动性与基本 面层面？ ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in June, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% while continuing quantitative tightening, which aligns with market expectations [2][3] - Economic forecasts indicate a downward adjustment in growth expectations for 2025 and 2026, with unemployment rates slightly increased, reflecting concerns over "stagflation" [3][4] - The dollar index is expected to decline further in 2025 due to tariffs, economic slowdown, and strengthening of alternative assets, stabilizing below 100 for the year [7] Home Appliances Industry - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from long-term stability, with white goods focusing on performance consistency and increasing dividend rates, while black goods present opportunities due to enhanced global competitiveness [9][12] - The industry has seen a significant increase in the SW home appliance index, with respective gains of 3.8%, 25.4%, and 1.93% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 YTD [9][10] - The outlook for the home appliance market is cautious due to potential demand exhaustion and intensified competition, particularly in the air conditioning segment [10][11] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently facing significant supply and demand pressures, with low profitability in the petrochemical sector, and a need for structural opportunities as the market stabilizes [15][16] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to range between $60-$70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, which may alleviate some cost pressures for the industry [15] - Key investment themes include domestic demand stimulation, supply-side constraints, and the domestic substitution of new materials [15][16] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on new technologies and non-US exports, particularly in the wind and solar energy segments [18][19] - The demand for energy storage is expected to shift from policy-driven to market-driven profitability, with significant growth potential in domestic and overseas markets [20][21] - The wind energy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by increased installations and demand from emerging markets [19][20] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies, particularly in state-owned enterprises, technology, and consumer sectors, which are expected to yield stable excess returns [24][25] - The development of public funds is expected to favor long-term and passive investment strategies, with a focus on ETFs and sector-specific funds [25][26] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns through quantitative stock selection strategies based on fundamental factors [24][26]

银河证券：白电板块的投资主要看公司业绩稳定性 中国银河证券指出，白电板块的投资主要看公司业绩稳定性，分红率稳步提升与无风险利率下行带来的 估值提升趋势；黑电板块的投资机会主要在于全球竞争力提升背景下的业绩弹性；清洁电器的投资机会 在于行业自2023年三季度以来深度整合之后龙头胜出后的机会；此外，AI与具身机器人技术的渗透， 部分公司将引入有吸引力的新智能产品。 光大证券指出，美高级官员透露美对伊袭击时间表，市场担忧中东局势再度升级，导致亚太股市普跌； 同时，刺激油气产业链逆市大涨。从A股自身来看，部分资金获利了结，前期强势的可控核聚变、稀 土、医药、新消费等板块带头下跌，直接拖累了整个市场。市场虽然调整，但指数仍然处于区间震荡的 格局，指数调整之后随时有望反弹。方向上关注人形机器人概念。 中金公司：未来IP及其衍生品产业有望步入下一阶段成长周期 中金公司研报表示，在全球IP商业化路径逐步成熟的背景下，预计未来IP及其衍生品产业有望在IP形象 和产品形式的持续创新驱动下，步入下一阶段成长周期。根据灼识咨询数据，全球IP玩具市场规模2024 年为5251亿元，预计2024—2029年CAGR（复合年均增长率）为8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance sector is expected to underperform the CSI 300 index in the first half of 2025 due to tariff increases, fluctuations in the trade-in policy, and high base expectations for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the home appliance sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [2]. - Key stocks showing positive performance include motorcycle and black appliance companies, such as Taotao Industry, Chunfeng Power, Ninebot, TCL Electronics, and others [2]. Group 2: White Appliance Sector - Demand differentiation between peak and off-peak seasons has increased, with a rapid recovery in Q2 2025 [3]. - China's dominance in global white appliance production remains intact, with short-term external shocks unlikely to alter long-term export growth trends [3]. - Adjustments in local subsidy policies aim to address previous imbalances and funding issues, with limited impact on annual sales expected [3]. - Emerging markets are showing stable economic growth, providing continuous incremental market opportunities for white appliance exports [3]. Group 3: Black Appliance Sector - Domestic and international demand remains robust, with significant structural upgrades towards large-size and MiniLED products [4]. - National subsidies are expected to continue driving domestic demand growth, with rapid increases in MiniLED penetration [4]. - Companies like Hisense and TCL are enhancing their overseas production capabilities, leading to expected growth in shipments and increased market share in the high-end segment [4]. Group 4: Cleaning Appliance Sector - The cleaning appliance category, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is benefiting significantly from national subsidies, with high growth expected in 2025 [5]. - The overseas market remains in a favorable cycle, with leading companies expanding their market share [5]. - The shift in consumer perception from optional to essential for cleaning appliances indicates substantial long-term growth potential in the domestic market [5]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2025 are primarily focused on the stability of the white appliance industry and the profit improvement potential in black appliances and robotic vacuum cleaners [6].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看待白电龙头打造高管"IP"？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，我们看到家电企业纷纷推进高管"IP"的打造。我们认为，一方面，企业管理层可以直 接和消费者在社媒平台进行交互，产品设计中的市场调研环节得到一定重构，消费者也有望获 得更多的"参与感"；另一方面，打造高管"IP"更加突出"反差感"，更加巩固"信任感"，使 得消费者可以更好了解企业文化和企业价值，企业管理层自身人格魅力也有望进一步巩固消费 者的品牌认同。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Summary2] 海尔、美的纷纷打造高管"IP" 近期，中国家电产业或正迎来新一代高管 IP 化的战略升级。2025 年 3 月 7 日，海尔周云杰因 与雷军同框亮相时的微表情走红，并在 3 月于不同平台上开启社交账号，后续海尔集团多名管 理层亦开始社媒账号布局。2025 年 3 月 11 日，广东美的制冷设备有限公司在美的集团采购平 台 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看显示技术迭代对黑电格局和盈利的影 响？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘上一轮显示技术变迁（从 CRT 升级至 LCD），全球市场来看，韩企三星、LG 通过逆周期 投资 LCD 面板实现对日企的超越， 2006 年三星液晶电视销量和销额市占率均为全球第一。中 国市场来看，海信视像准确把握 LCD 技术渗透契机，优化产品结构，实现电视业务毛利率提 升。本轮 Mini LED 升级趋势明确，中国企业在 Mini LED 技术研发上持续加码。大陆面板厂份 额扩大，叠加 Mini LED 电视产品面板成本占比较普通 LCD 产品更低。基于此，我们认为中国 黑电企业在本轮技术迭代中盈利能力和全球份额的提升具备可持续性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Titl ...