Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -49 billion to -52 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a significant loss compared to the previous year's net profit of -31.29 billion yuan [1][2] - The basic earnings per share for the reporting period is projected to be -0.6951 yuan [2] - Despite the ongoing growth in domestic and international photovoltaic installations, the industry continues to face supply-demand imbalances, leading to sustained low product prices and operational losses for the company [2] Group 2 - The company's core businesses, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, maintain competitive advantages, while the feed business continues to contribute stable performance [2] - The company has sufficient financial liquidity reserves and ongoing breakthroughs in technology research and development, which support its long-term healthy development [2] - The photovoltaic industry is recognized as a strategic emerging industry in China, playing a crucial role in the global transition to clean energy, with significant long-term growth potential despite current challenges [2]

股票代码：600438 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2025-066 债券代码：110085 债券简称：通 22 转债 通威股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利 润约为-49 亿元至-52 亿元左右。 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 本期业绩预告的具体适用情形：净利润为负值。 公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润约为-49亿元 至-52 亿元左右。扣除非经常性损益后，公司预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润约为-49 亿元至-52 亿元左右。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润约为-49 亿元至-52 亿元左右。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 四、风险提示 （二）基本每股收益：-0.6951 元。 三、本期业绩预 ...

通威股份：预计上半年净亏损49亿元-52亿元 智通财经7月14日电，通威股份(600438.SH)公告称，预计2025年半年度归属于母公司所有者的净利润约 为-49亿元至-52亿元。上年同期净利润为-31.29亿元。报告期内，尽管光伏装机规模增长，但行业供需 失衡导致产品价格低迷，公司经营出现亏损。 ...

股票方面，截至上周末，多晶硅板块通威股份（600438）7月至今大涨逾两成，大全能源大涨近两成； 光伏玻璃亚玛顿（002623）大涨逾六成；钢铁股金岭矿业（000655）大涨逾四成，重庆钢铁（601005） 大涨16%。 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 陈燕青 随着"反内卷"政策信号持续释放，市场对行业格局优化的预期增强，近期多晶硅、黑色系商品期货持续 反弹。根据统计，截至7月11日，7月以来多晶硅主力合约大涨23.4%，焦煤主力合约上涨8.37%，玻璃 主力合约上涨6.68%，螺纹钢主力合约上涨4.12%。 业内普遍认为，"反内卷"背后，意在减少低效竞争，解决产能过剩和资源浪费问题。 对此，广发证券首席策略分析师刘晨明表示，从2023年底以来，"反内卷"在多个顶层会议被频繁提及， 自上而下推动的供给调节与需求刺激手段形成配合，目标是使得经济的物价水平重回稳定区间。本轮市 场对于"反内卷"的形式和力度也存在观望期，未来行情斜率的提升还需要看到进一步坚决推进的政策信 号。如果政策持续，单靠供给收缩可以实现相关行业的资产周转率上升、价格上涨、利润修复，构成结 构性机会。 根据统计，7月以来商品价格上涨较多的品类集中在新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a rebound after nearly two years of losses, with significant price increases in silicon materials and a surge in stock prices for key companies in the sector [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase in N-type silicon materials reached a maximum rise of 6.92%, with the average price for multi-crystalline silicon materials rising to 37,100 RMB per ton [1][5]. - The A-share photovoltaic sector has seen substantial gains, with companies like Yamaton and Yijing Optoelectronics rising by 33% and 26% respectively over three trading days [1]. - The market sentiment has been positively influenced by policy signals aimed at reducing excessive competition and promoting product quality [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity in the photovoltaic industry [2][3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed plans to limit multi-crystalline silicon production to a maximum of 1.4 million tons by 2030, which represents a reduction of at least 56% from the current capacity of 3.23 million tons [3][4]. - The government has indicated that companies selling below cost may face severe penalties, echoing previous supply-side reforms in other industries [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Adjustments - Despite the recent price increases, the overall supply-demand imbalance in the multi-crystalline silicon market remains unresolved, and the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures will take time to manifest [9][10]. - A proposed plan involves leading silicon material companies forming a platform to consolidate excess capacity, which would help stabilize production and sales across the industry [10][11]. - The recent price adjustments in silicon wafers, driven by rising upstream silicon prices, have seen increases of 8% to 11.7% across various sizes [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates that the supply-side reforms will lead to a significant turnaround in the photovoltaic sector, with expectations for a more structured approach to capacity control [12][13]. - The commitment from national authorities to enforce these reforms is expected to instill confidence among financial institutions and industry players [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is currently facing challenges due to unclear downstream demand expectations and excess upstream capacity. However, the implementation of Document No. 136 is expected to clarify demand expectations, leading to improvements in both supply and demand dynamics within the industry [4][20] - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant increase in project bidding, with June 2025 seeing a record high of 62.8 GWh in public bidding capacity, a 228% increase compared to June 2024 [5][9] - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to rebound due to the "anti-involution" plan aimed at reducing excess capacity and promoting sustainable development within the industry [17][18] Summary by Sections Energy Storage - The energy storage industry is in a transitional phase, with ongoing government support expected to maintain resilient demand for storage projects. Key companies to watch include Haibo Shichuang and Sungrow Power [14][17] - The regions with high renewable energy penetration, such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Hebei, are showing positive attitudes towards supporting energy storage projects [14][15] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing rapid capacity growth, outpacing demand, leading to significant losses for companies. The "anti-involution" plan aims to address this by facilitating the exit of outdated capacity and stabilizing prices [17][18] - The price of polysilicon has seen a dramatic decline, dropping from 65 RMB/kg at the beginning of 2024 to 35 RMB/kg by July 2025, but there are signs of recovery [18][19] - Companies to focus on include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Xinte Energy in the polysilicon segment, and new technology firms like BQ Materials and Aiko Solar in the photovoltaic technology space [4][20]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate towards mass production due to breakthroughs in AI technology and increasing domestic and international enterprise layouts, with strong demand for domestic replacement of core components [12][15] - The domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) market is experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales in June exceeding 25% year-on-year, driven by technological advancements in vehicle performance [16][18] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a significant price increase across the board, with policies promoting orderly competition and a solidified industry foundation [24][29] - The approval of the UK's 1.5GW Mona offshore wind project marks a significant advancement in the European offshore wind sector, with expectations for further auctions and orders in the second half of the year [25][27] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is witnessing increased participation from major tech companies, with a focus on the T-chain and domestic supply chain developments, indicating a robust market opportunity [12][15] - Key components such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials are expected to see significant advancements, enhancing the efficiency and application of humanoid robots [13][15] New Energy Vehicles - The NEV sector is in a growth phase, with new models enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness, supported by advancements in solid-state batteries and other technologies [16][18] - The demand for lithium battery materials is expected to expand due to the recovery of the consumer electronics market and the growth of energy storage applications [20][22] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price surge due to supply chain adjustments and policy support, with specific beneficiaries identified in the silicon material and battery sectors [24][29] - The market is expected to stabilize as inventory levels decrease and production capacity is adjusted, with a focus on high-efficiency products and new technologies [30][32] Offshore Wind Power - The approval of the Mona offshore wind project is anticipated to stimulate further developments in the offshore wind sector across Europe, with domestic companies poised to benefit from upcoming orders [25][27] - The demand for offshore wind components is expected to rise, driven by both domestic and international projects, creating opportunities for companies involved in the supply chain [43][45]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing significant changes due to supply-side reforms, with a notable increase in polysilicon prices and market dynamics shifting towards a more concentrated structure among leading companies [1][17][29]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The polysilicon futures market reacted rapidly after the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1, with main contract prices rising from 32,000 yuan to over 41,000 yuan, a nearly 30% increase in just eight trading days [1]. - In the stock market, leading polysilicon companies like Tongwei Co., Xiexin Technology, and Daqo New Energy saw stock prices increase by over 23% during the same period, although the stock market's reaction was slower compared to the futures market [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform and Capacity Clearance - There is a consensus in the market regarding the need for supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, but skepticism remains about the pace of capacity clearance and price increases [4]. - The last supply-side reform was initiated in November 2015, with coal and steel capacity clearance policies taking effect in February 2016, indicating that similar timelines may apply to the current photovoltaic reforms [5]. - Some analysts believe that the pace of policy implementation for photovoltaic capacity clearance may be faster than expected due to prior engagements with enterprises and directives from higher authorities [6][9]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The average cost line for leading polysilicon manufacturers is above 40,000 yuan, establishing a price floor for polysilicon [12]. - Reports suggest that the target price for polysilicon should be at least 60,000 yuan to ensure that leading companies can cover costs and service debts, with some estimates suggesting prices may need to exceed 80,000 yuan [13][14]. - If polysilicon prices rise significantly, the ability of downstream manufacturers to pass on costs remains a contentious issue, with the current price increase primarily driven by supply-side reforms rather than demand from downstream sectors [15]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a fundamental shift, indicating a reversal of previous difficulties, although the stock prices of leading companies have not yet fully reflected this change [17][18]. - The current situation in the photovoltaic sector is reminiscent of the coal industry's supply-side reforms initiated in 2016, which led to significant capacity reductions and price increases over time [19][22]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see a recovery in valuations, although the demand landscape may face uncertainties due to trade barriers and other external factors [29].

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has successfully completed a strategic capital increase of 4.916 billion yuan for its subsidiary, Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., attracting 11 investment institutions, including several with state-owned backgrounds, despite the amount being half of the previously estimated scale [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The total capital increase amount is approximately 4.916 billion yuan, which is the largest single private equity financing amount disclosed in Sichuan Province for 2025 [3][4]. - After the capital increase, Tongwei's shareholding in Yongxiang has been diluted to 84.60%, while new investors hold a combined 15.40% [2][3]. - The funds from this capital increase will be used to repay bank loans and supplement working capital for Yongxiang and its subsidiaries [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Market Context - Yongxiang Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of over 900,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon and has ranked first globally in market share and shipment volume since 2021 [5]. - In 2023, Yongxiang achieved a revenue of 45.03 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.18 billion yuan, but faced a net loss of nearly 1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 due to a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [5]. - Analysts suggest that the financing indicates that leading companies in the photovoltaic sector can endure longer despite the industry's challenges, but it does not change the overall trend of the market [5]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Citigroup upgraded Tongwei's rating from "Sell" to "Buy," raising the target price from 14 yuan to 25 yuan, anticipating benefits from supply-side reforms that will reduce excess industry capacity [6]. - The analyst believes Tongwei is well-positioned to capitalize on potential benefits from supply-side reforms in the polysilicon production sector, enhancing its competitive cost structure [6].

自2024年7月政治局会议提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争，至2025年7月1日中央财经委员会正式提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动 落后产能有序退出，反内卷相关政策是在不断推进加强的。当前外有关税冲击、出口环境恶劣，加剧国内产能过剩；内有多行业长期有 规模无利润，行业生态日益恶劣，已陷入低价通缩循环。因此治理无序竞争、调整产能结构、促进产业升级的反内卷势在必行。特别是 光伏、汽车、钢铁等重点行业。 此次会议研讨后，我们认为反内卷影响周期长，至少是下半年一条交易主线，部分板块存在投资机会。商品主要关注多晶硅，股票关注 通威和隆基，同时股指300也是较好的标的。 具体商品来看： 以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者能化组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品期货 和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述 进入7月，"反内卷"新一轮供给侧改革论调，已开始成为近期商品交易的一大主线。此轮反内卷与以往有何不同，是否将是下半年的投资 主线，各板块又存在哪些投资机 ...