自2024年7月政治局会议提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争，至2025年7月1日中央财经委员会正式提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动 落后产能有序退出，反内卷相关政策是在不断推进加强的。当前外有关税冲击、出口环境恶劣，加剧国内产能过剩；内有多行业长期有 规模无利润，行业生态日益恶劣，已陷入低价通缩循环。因此治理无序竞争、调整产能结构、促进产业升级的反内卷势在必行。特别是 光伏、汽车、钢铁等重点行业。 此次会议研讨后，我们认为反内卷影响周期长，至少是下半年一条交易主线，部分板块存在投资机会。商品主要关注多晶硅，股票关注 通威和隆基，同时股指300也是较好的标的。 具体商品来看： 以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者能化组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品期货 和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述 进入7月，"反内卷"新一轮供给侧改革论调，已开始成为近期商品交易的一大主线。此轮反内卷与以往有何不同，是否将是下半年的投资 主线，各板块又存在哪些投资机 ...

Group 1 - The core finding of the report indicates that the top ten global solar photovoltaic module manufacturers are expected to ship a record 500 GW in 2024, nearly double the previous year's volume, despite these leading companies collectively incurring a loss of $4 billion [1] - The report highlights that these top manufacturers account for 62% of global production capacity and 89% of module shipments, showcasing a high level of industry concentration [1] - The ranking includes manufacturers from over 10 countries, with Jinko Solar leading the list with a score of 90.6, followed closely by JA Solar and LONGi Green Energy [2] Group 2 - Geographic expansion is identified as a key strategy to address trade challenges, with China remaining the dominant player in solar module manufacturing, while emerging competitors like India, South Korea, and Vietnam are rapidly closing the gap [3] - The report emphasizes a continuing trend of vertical integration among manufacturers, with a focus on upstream control, as top module producers increasingly integrate battery production into their operations [3] - Several companies are accelerating investments in wafer manufacturing, reflecting the industry's shift towards comprehensive vertical integration [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has successfully raised nearly 5 billion yuan through its subsidiary Yongxiang Co., Ltd., marking the largest financing record in Sichuan this year, with a pre-investment valuation of Yongxiang reaching 27 billion yuan [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financing Details - Yongxiang Co., Ltd. introduced 11 strategic investors, collectively investing 4.916 billion yuan, which is half of the previously expected amount, but still the largest financing in Sichuan this year [5]. - The post-investment valuation of Yongxiang is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan [5]. - The funds raised will be used to repay bank loans and supplement working capital for Yongxiang and its subsidiaries [5]. Group 2: Company Background - Yongxiang Co., Ltd. was established in 2002 and is a key subsidiary of Tongwei Co., Ltd., specializing in high-purity crystalline silicon, a core material for solar cells [6][7]. - Yongxiang has a production capacity of over 900,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon across four production bases in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia [7]. - In 2023, Yongxiang achieved revenue of 45.03 billion yuan, with a net profit of 15.18 billion yuan, although it faced a net loss of 990 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 due to industry challenges [7]. Group 3: Leadership Transition - Liu Shuqing, born in 1989, has taken over leadership of Tongwei Co., Ltd. as CEO, focusing on digital transformation and global supply chain development [11][13]. - Under her leadership, Tongwei has secured significant contracts and expanded its international presence, with products now used in over 70 countries [13]. Group 4: Industry Context - Leshan, where Yongxiang is located, is recognized as "China's Green Silicon Valley," housing multiple leading companies in the photovoltaic industry and forming a significant industrial cluster [15][16]. - The region is also developing a new energy storage industry, with plans to establish a comprehensive production base for vanadium flow batteries by 2027 [17]. - Sichuan's renewable energy sector is rapidly growing, with projected revenues of approximately 2,350 billion yuan in 2024, including 1,950 billion yuan from photovoltaics [18].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry has shown active performance since July, driven by "anti-involution" policies, attracting significant market attention and capital inflow [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 10, 2025, the photovoltaic ETF (515790) has accumulated a capital inflow of 1.469 billion yuan since July, with an average daily trading volume of 855 million yuan, and a single-day capital inflow of 315 million yuan on July 10 [1] - The latest scale and share of the photovoltaic ETF reached 16.961 billion shares and 12.367 billion yuan, with monthly increases of 14.35% and 23.87%, respectively, marking a historical high in share size since its inception [1][2] Group 2: Price Trends - Recent reports indicate a stabilization and recovery trend in the prices across multiple segments of the photovoltaic industry chain, with expectations of price increases in polysilicon leading to fluctuations in downstream silicon wafer prices [1] - Several silicon material companies have begun adjusting their product prices, demonstrating a strong determination to maintain pricing, which may lead to a systematic rebound in prices across the industry chain [1][2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the recovery of industry chain prices is a crucial step towards achieving "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic sector, with expectations for a solidification of the industry's fundamentals and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated production capacity [2] - The photovoltaic ETF (515790) closely tracks an index covering the entire photovoltaic industry, selecting no more than 50 representative companies, with the top five constituent stocks being leading firms in the industry, likely to benefit from the overall price recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][9]. Core Insights - The price of polysilicon has been continuously rising, currently near the full cost of leading companies, with spot prices reaching 44,500 CNY/ton, which is close to the estimated full cost range of 42,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton for top polysilicon producers [3]. - The price increases in the supply chain are expected to lead to higher component prices, with downstream prices for silicon wafers and batteries also rising, indicating a successful price transmission within the industry [3]. - The anticipated price increases are expected to benefit export profitability, mitigating concerns over domestic demand declines in the second half of the year, as overseas market demand is gradually increasing [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Polysilicon prices have surged, with N-type dense material quoted at 44,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 5,500 CNY/ton [1]. - Silicon wafer prices for N-type 182 and 210 sizes have increased by 13.64% and 13.45%, respectively, indicating a cascading effect of price increases throughout the supply chain [1]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a positive feedback loop in the industry, driven by self-discipline and anti-involution measures, which are expected to sustain the upward trend in polysilicon prices [3]. - The report suggests that the price increases will not lead to a rise in polysilicon production rates due to industry self-regulation [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy, which are expected to benefit from rising polysilicon prices [3]. - It also highlights companies with independent alpha trends, including Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy, as well as auxiliary material companies like Foster and Flat Glass [3].

如何看待反内卷进程？ 当前光伏投资机会展望 20250710 摘要 Q&A 光伏行业目前的供给侧改革进展如何？ 多晶硅行业通过 CPI 年度大会及月度例会，对企业生产配额进行管控， 旨在恢复产业链报价并降低开工率，类似于 OPEC 模式，通过行政手段 干预市场供需关系。 协鑫科技提出产能并购整合方案，通过金融机构支持，头部公司联合并 购低效产能，以实现产能出清和可控，该方案已获政府确认并推进。 近期多晶硅价格显著上涨，n 型居民料报价从 33.5 元/公斤上涨至 40 元 /公斤，预计本周内最高报价可能达到 45 元/公斤，安泰科对报价的严格 要求进一步支撑价格上涨趋势。 光伏需求总体稳定，地面电站需求受集中式项目企稳支撑，工商业分布 式项目自发自用未受政策影响，海外需求预计自 7 月起环比复苏，出口 退税取消政策亦有助推作用。 2025 年 7 月全行业多晶硅排产为 10.4 万吨，环比小幅上升，主要由于 云南地区丰水期产能复产，预计八九月份西南、西北地区部分产能将持 续复产。 哪些光伏标的值得关注？ 多晶硅价格未来几个月的走势如何？ 多晶硅价格预计将继续上涨。根据 SMM 官方报价，上周 n 型居民料报价 ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Silicon Material Industry - The photovoltaic silicon material industry is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the solar industry [1] - By 2027, the industry is projected to enter a stable development phase, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment due to differences in capacity costs and financial strength among companies [1] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing continuous advancements, with equipment from Winbond Technology successfully delivered to major domestic clients [2] - Material production is ramping up, with significant capacity in oxide electrolytes and expectations for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [2] - Companies of interest in this sector include Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Development - The central government is promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power, with a focus on enhancing the marine economy and encouraging private investment [3] - Goldwind Technology has secured over 7.7GW of international orders for 2024, with significant revenue growth reported for its international subsidiary [3] - Key players in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and Dajin Heavy Industry [3] Group 4: Data Center Investment - Global data center investments are accelerating, with Amazon planning to invest AUD 20 billion (approximately USD 13.1 billion) in Australia and SK Telecom collaborating with Amazon Web Services for a significant data center project in South Korea [4] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems is underway, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] - Companies to monitor in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and others [4] Group 5: Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, with Goldwind Technology rated "Outperform" and projected to have an EPS of 1.28 in 2025 [5] - Jinpan Technology and other companies also received "Outperform" ratings, indicating positive market sentiment [5] Group 6: Industry Performance Overview - The electric power equipment sector outperformed the market in June, with a 6.68% increase compared to a 2.5% rise in the CSI 300 index [13] - The sector's PE ratio at the end of June was 30.3, reflecting a slight recovery in valuations [13] - The report highlights that the electric power equipment industry has shown strong performance across various sub-sectors, including lithium battery materials and wind power [23]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report highlights increasing government concern over disorderly competition in China's solar industry, while noting uncertainty in the implementation of supply-side reforms and risks related to weak demand and the predominance of private enterprises in the market [1] Industry Insights - From June 30 to July 8, Chinese solar stocks, particularly polysilicon companies (Tongwei, Daqo, GCL-Poly, and Xinte), saw stock price increases of 28%-36%, compared to a 0.3% rise in the Hang Seng Index and a 1.5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Supply-Side Reform Developments - Key developments regarding supply-side reforms include: - On June 29, the People's Daily emphasized the intense competition within the solar module industry - On July 1, the Central Financial Committee condemned low-price competition, with solar photovoltaic being a key focus - On July 3, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology hosted a forum with leading photovoltaic companies and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) - GCL-Poly and Tongwei hinted at the possibility of forming a capacity acquisition fund with other top-ranked companies to consolidate the polysilicon industry [3] Market Conditions and Risks - Morgan Stanley identifies several uncertainties in the implementation of reforms: - Due to policy milestones in May, photovoltaic demand may decline in the second half of 2025, with a projected installation capacity of 198GW from January to May 2025 - The photovoltaic manufacturing value chain is predominantly led by private enterprises, with many new capacities established under local government investment attraction since 2022 - Most new capacities in the polysilicon/silicon wafer/cell/module segments were built between 2022-2024, utilizing new emission standards and technologies - High polysilicon inventory levels (>300 thousand tons) equate to four months or more of demand [3][4][6]

| 股票代码：600438 | 股票简称：通威股份 | | | 公告编号：2025-065 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110085 | 债券简称：通 | 22 | 转债 | | 自 2025 年 10 月 11 日起首个交易日重新开始计算，如"通 22 转债"未 来再次触发转股价格向下修正条款，公司董事会将再次召开会议决定是否行使 "通 22 转债"转股价格向下修正的权利。 一、"通 22 转债"基本情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可[2021]4028 号文核准，公司于 2022 年 2 月 24 日公开发行了 12,000 万张可转换公司债券，每张面值 100 元，共计 120 亿元。本次可转债期限 6 年，自 2022 年 2 月 24 日起至 2028 年 2 月 23 日止， 票面利率为第一年 0.20%、第二年 0.40%、第三年 0.60%、第四年 1.50%、第 五年 1.80%、第六年 2.00%。 经上海证券交易所自律监管决定书[2022]61 号文同意，公司本次发行的 1,200,000.00 万元可转换公司债券于 2022 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant surge, with leading stocks reaching new highs amid a broader market focus on the solar energy sector [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - The silicon energy sector is leading the market, with stocks like Silicon Treasure Technology rising over 17% and several others hitting their daily limit [2][4]. - Huaguang Huaneng has achieved six consecutive trading limits, with a total increase of 77.09% during this period, bringing its market capitalization to 17.59 billion [3][4]. Group 2: Price Trends - The futures market for polysilicon has seen a rise of over 5%, with the main contract priced at 41,205 yuan per ton, while industrial silicon has increased by 3% to 8,410 yuan per ton [5][6]. - Polysilicon prices have surged by 25% to 35%, with new order volumes remaining limited despite the price hikes [10][12]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has been on an upward trend since late June, with the photovoltaic equipment sector rising over 18% and the organic silicon sector increasing by over 15% [15][18]. - Major photovoltaic glass companies announced a collective production cut of 30%, marking the beginning of a "de-involution" movement in the industry [18][20]. - The government has been actively addressing issues of low-price disorderly competition, indicating a strategic shift towards supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector [20][21].