[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：20.72 元 分析师：孙颖 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘铭政 执业证书编号：S0740524070003 Email：liumz01@zts.com.cn 盈利韧性显现，供给端已开始优化 海螺水泥（600585.SH）/建筑 材料 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 3 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|---------|---------|------------------------------------------|---------|---------| | [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 132,022 | 140,999 | 132, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance relative to the benchmark index within a range of -10% to 10% over the next six months [9]. Core Views - The demand in the industry remains under pressure, but profitability is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 45.566 billion yuan, down 30.44% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.326 billion yuan, down 48.56% year-on-year [5]. - The company's cement and clinker sales volume for the first half of 2024 was 12.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.35% year-on-year, which is better than the industry average decline of 10% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 141 billion yuan, with a significant drop to 102.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 27.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 10.43 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.88 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 24.4% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.97 yuan in 2023, dropping to 1.49 yuan in 2024 [8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The cost of cement clinker for the first half of 2024 was 188 yuan per ton, down 16.03% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 is estimated at 52 yuan per ton, down 29% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of reduced industry demand [6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the industry, with a focus on normalizing staggered production to prevent excessive competition [6]. - Long-term expectations include the introduction of carbon emission policies in the cement industry, which may lead to stricter capacity replacement regulations [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Conch Cement (600585) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 45.566 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, primarily due to falling cement prices and reduced clinker revenue. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.326 billion yuan, down 48.56% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 24.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.92%, with a net profit of 1.823 billion yuan, down 53.40% year-on-year [2] - The company’s capital expenditure for the first half of 2024 was approximately 7.664 billion yuan, mainly for project construction investments [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s self-produced 42.5 and above grade cement, 32.5 grade cement, clinker, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete generated revenues of 23.687 billion yuan, 3.878 billion yuan, 2.645 billion yuan, 2.191 billion yuan, and 1.178 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.76%, -23.26%, -34.29%, +29.84%, +20.60%, and -64.08% [2] - The average selling price of self-produced cement clinker in the first half of 2024 was 240 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the unit cost was 188 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The overall gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 18.93%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 7.43%, down 2.98 percentage points year-on-year, with an operating cash flow net amount of 6.871 billion yuan, an increase of 1.793 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 8.652 billion yuan, 9.414 billion yuan, and 10.258 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.6, 11.5, and 10.6 times [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 25.9 CNY, indicating an expected upside from the current price of 20.49 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 was 3.33 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Revenue also fell by 30.44% to 45.57 billion CNY [1]. - The decline in revenue was primarily attributed to a drop in cement prices, while the aggregate business showed growth with a revenue increase of 29.84% [1]. - The company has maintained a strong cash flow with a net cash position of 46.4 billion CNY and an asset-liability ratio of 19.5% [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 18.92% for the first half of 2024, with a slight improvement in Q2 to 19.96% [1]. - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was 6.87 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35% [1]. - The company has reduced its profit forecast for 2024-2026, now estimating net profits of 8.4 billion CNY, 10.5 billion CNY, and 12 billion CNY respectively [1]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of 14.8% in the cement sector, with a production capacity of 27.4 million tons of clinker and 39.9 million tons of cement [1]. - The report highlights the company's scale advantages and anticipates a potential recovery in cement prices due to industry self-discipline [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company's ongoing project developments and capacity expansions will support future growth, with significant capital expenditures planned [1]. - The anticipated recovery in cement prices is expected to positively impact the company's performance in the coming quarters [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative benchmark index increase of over 15% [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance outperformed the industry, with a widening profitability gap [1] - Despite industry-wide pressure, the company maintained leading profitability in the cement sector [1] - The report expects a profit recovery in the second half of 2024, driven by marginal demand improvement and supply compression [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024H1 revenue: 45.566 billion yuan, down 30.37% YoY [1] - 2024H1 net profit attributable to parent company: 3.326 billion yuan, down 48.59% YoY [1] - 2024H1 gross margin: 18.93%, down 0.5 pct YoY [1] - 2024H1 net margin: 7.43%, down 2.97 pct YoY [1] Cement Business - 2024H1 cement clinker sales volume: 126 million tons, down 3.35% YoY [1] - 2024H1 cement clinker revenue: 30.21 billion yuan, down 23.99% YoY [1] - 2024H1 cement clinker average price: 239.76 yuan/ton, down 21.58% YoY [1] - 2024H1 cement clinker gross margin: 21.78%, down 4.96 pct YoY [1] Aggregate and Ready-mix Concrete Business - 2024H1 aggregate revenue: 2.191 billion yuan, up 29.84% YoY [1] - 2024H1 aggregate gross margin: 47.84%, down 9.71 pct YoY [1] - 2024H1 ready-mix concrete revenue: 1.178 billion yuan, up 20.6% YoY [1] - 2024H1 ready-mix concrete gross margin: 8.42%, down 4.2 pct YoY [1] Overseas Business - 2024H1 overseas revenue: 2.3 billion yuan, up 5.72% YoY [1] - 2024H1 overseas gross margin: 39.99%, up 10.23 pct YoY [1] Industry Overview - 2024H1 national cement output: 850 million tons, down 10% YoY [1] - 2024H1 national cement industry estimated loss: 1 billion yuan [1] - 2024H1 national cement average price: down 12.9% YoY [1] - 2024H1 East China cement average price: down 16% YoY [1] - 2024H1 South China cement average price: down 19.9% YoY [1] Future Projections - 2024-2026 projected net profit attributable to parent company: 8.012, 8.237, 8.522 billion yuan [1] - 2024-2026 projected PE ratio: 14x, 13x, 13x [1] - 2024-2026 projected EPS: 1.51, 1.55, 1.61 yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit due to weak demand in the cement industry, with a 30.37% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 45.566 billion yuan and a 48.59% drop in net profit to 3.326 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - Despite the challenging environment, the company has a strong risk resistance capability, with a low debt ratio of 19.50% and a cash asset ratio of 27.83%, allowing it to maintain a certain level of profitability [3][4]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 8.324 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.306 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.57 yuan to 1.94 yuan [4][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company's self-produced sales volume was 12.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.35% year-on-year, which is less than the industry average decline of 10% [3]. - The average selling price of cement fell to 239.76 yuan per ton, down 21.58% year-on-year, contributing to the largest revenue drop in 25 years [3]. - The company's gross margin and net profit margin were 18.93% and 7.43%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to previous periods [3]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from potential improvements in the supply-side policies and market conditions, as it continues to leverage its scale and cost advantages [3][4]. - The projected earnings for 2024-2026 indicate a recovery trend, with net profits expected to rise steadily, reflecting the company's resilience and strategic initiatives [4][9].

建材材料|水泥 证券分析师 戴铭余 S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 海螺水泥 沪深300 相关研究 公司点评 2024 年 08 月 29 日 海螺水泥 (600585) 增持（维持） ——业绩符合预期，DCF 估值支撑下具备配置价值 投资要点： ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年中报，实现收入 455.66 亿元，同比下降 30.44%，归母净利润 33.26 亿元，同比下降 48.56%；其中单二季度实现收入 242.38 亿元，同比下滑 28.92%，归母净 利润 18.23 亿元，同比下滑 53.40%，业绩符合预期。 ➢ 行业需求低迷致上半年营收及利润下滑。水泥业务继续承压。上半年，受国内地产新开工持续低 迷以及部分地区化债影响，国内水泥下游需求较弱，全国水泥产量 8.5 亿吨，同比下降 10.0% 。 供需矛盾的加重使得市场竞争加剧。2024H1 公司水泥熟料自产品销量为 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Conch Cement (600585), marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to weak cement demand, but cost control demonstrates resilience. In H1 2024, the total sales volume of cement and clinker was 128 million tons, down 4.9% year-on-year, with revenue of 33.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8% [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 45.57 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.33 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.18 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 30.4%, 48.6%, and 48.3% respectively [3][4]. - The average selling price per ton was 266.5 yuan, with costs at 205.2 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 61.3 yuan per ton, showing declines of 18.3%, 13.1%, and 32.0% year-on-year respectively [2][4]. Market Position - The company’s market share is expected to increase as its decline in sales volume is less than the industry average, which saw a 10.0% drop in national cement production in H1 2024 [2][4]. Capacity Expansion - In H1 2024, the company added 2.3 million tons of clinker capacity and 4.7 million tons of cement capacity, bringing total clinker capacity to 27.4 million tons and cement capacity to 39.9 million tons [2][4]. Non-Cement Business Growth - Non-cement businesses, including aggregates and ready-mixed concrete, reported revenues of 2.19 billion yuan and 1.18 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.8% and 20.6% [4][5]. - The revenue contribution from non-cement businesses increased from 4.1% in H1 2023 to 7.4% in H1 2024 [4]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The company reported a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow of 6.87 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 35.3% year-on-year [5]. - The asset-liability ratio and interest-bearing debt ratio were 19.5% and 10.3%, respectively, showing slight increases year-on-year [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 135.74 billion yuan, 139.13 billion yuan, and 143.17 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 8.01 billion yuan, 8.81 billion yuan, and 9.63 billion yuan [6][7].

推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:21.08元 平安观点： 行情走势图 证券分析师 主要数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------|---------------------------------| | 行业 | 建材 | | 公司网址 | www.conch.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 安徽海螺集团有限责任公司/36.40% | | 实际控制人 | 安徽省国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 5,299 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 4,000 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | 1,300 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,045 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 843 | | 每股净资产(元) | 34.64 | | 资产负债率(%) | 19.5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E ...

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 4,556.56 million, a decrease of about 30.44% compared to the same period last year[2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was approximately RMB 348.63 million, down approximately 48.37% year-on-year[2]. - The basic earnings per share for the reporting period was RMB 0.66, a decrease from RMB 1.27 in the same period last year[2]. - The company reported a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, amounting to RMB 3,184.88 million, down 48.25% year-on-year[10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 3.326 billion, down 48.56% year-on-year, with earnings per share of CNY 0.63, a decline of CNY 0.59 per share[20]. - The company reported a net profit for the period of RMB 3,547,266 thousand, representing a 50.2% decrease compared to RMB 7,122,732 thousand in 2023[50]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 243,734.51 million, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the end of the previous year[8]. - The total liabilities of the group amounted to 47.53 billion, a decrease of 1.66% compared to the previous year[36]. - The group’s equity attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.99% to 183.55 billion[37]. - The company's total assets were 243.73 billion, down 1.06% from the previous year-end[36]. - The net current assets decreased to RMB 68,824,198 thousand from RMB 71,709,224 thousand, a decline of 4.0%[52]. - The company reported a total equity of RMB 196,154,391 thousand as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 197,962,932 thousand, a decrease of 0.9%[53]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was RMB 6,870.68 million, an increase of 35.75% year-on-year[10]. - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 13,858,506 thousand from RMB 11,572,016 thousand, a rise of 19.7%[51]. - The current tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,122,936,000, compared to RMB 1,722,477,000 in 2023, indicating a decrease of 34.87%[70]. - The company reported a decrease in cash and cash equivalents of RMB (2,058,787) thousand for the period[93]. Shareholder Information - The total number of registered shareholders as of the reporting period was 264,950, with H-share registered shareholders numbering 122[12]. - The largest shareholder, Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., held 1,928,870,014 shares, representing 36.40% of the total shares[12]. - The company repurchased a total of 22,242,535 A shares, accounting for 0.42% of the total issued share capital as of the end of the reporting period[15]. - The total amount spent on share repurchases during the reporting period was approximately 161.43 million yuan, excluding transaction fees[15]. - The company’s major shareholders do not have any related relationships or act in concert with each other[13]. Business Operations - The company added new clinker capacity of 2.3 million tons and cement capacity of 4.7 million tons during the reporting period[21]. - The company’s main business in the building materials sector generated revenue of CNY 33.579 billion, a decrease of 20.82% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.01%[23]. - The sales of 42.5-grade cement accounted for CNY 23.687 billion, down 22.76% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.62%[23]. - The company’s direct sales model generated revenue of CNY 19.756 billion, a decrease of 20.28% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.74%[24]. - The company is actively promoting innovation and green development, focusing on energy-saving and consumption-reduction technology transformation[20]. Market and Expansion - The construction of the new cement projects in Uzbekistan and Cambodia is progressing smoothly, contributing to the company's international expansion[20]. - The overseas sales market showed improvement, with export sales increasing by 100.69% year-on-year[28]. - The company plans to focus on effective investment and strengthen its competitive advantages in the cement and upstream and downstream industries[45]. - The company aims to explore overseas business expansion and diversify its development model while improving the operational quality of overseas projects[45]. Research and Development - The company received the second prize of the National Science and Technology Progress Award for its project on high-speed rail anti-corrosion materials[20]. - Research and development expenses decreased by 29.24% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced spending on smart production projects[33]. - The company’s research and development expenses for the six months ending June 30, 2023, were RMB 707,058,000[82]. Taxation - The effective corporate income tax rate for most subsidiaries in mainland China is 25%, with certain subsidiaries qualifying for a reduced rate of 15% due to their status as high-tech enterprises[71][74]. - The company has received high-tech enterprise certification for several subsidiaries, allowing them to benefit from the 15% preferential income tax rate until 2024[74]. - The company has not recognized any taxable income under Hong Kong profits tax, thus no provision for Hong Kong profits tax is required[70]. Miscellaneous - The company has not repurchased, sold, or redeemed any listed securities other than those disclosed during the reporting period[16]. - The company has no significant events affecting its operations since the publication of its annual report as of December 31, 2023[47]. - The company has diversified its customer base, with no single customer accounting for more than 10% of total sales revenue[57].