Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - In the first half of 2024, the company adjusted its liquid milk channels, resulting in improved freshness of products, with terminal data indicating a healthy overall performance despite a slowdown in shipment pace [2][3]. - The market share of the company's white milk business increased, with organic white milk growth also leading the market [3]. - As of July 2024, the liquid milk channel adjustments were nearly complete, laying a solid foundation for business recovery in the second half of the year [4]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing Strategy - The average selling price of dairy products decreased in the first half of the year due to imbalances in raw milk supply and demand, but this stimulated consumption in lower-tier cities [6]. - The company anticipates a gradual stabilization and recovery of prices in the second half of the year, supported by improved product freshness and ongoing market adjustments [3][4]. - The company plans to leverage digital marketing strategies to enhance consumer engagement and capitalize on seasonal opportunities such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook and Consumer Trends - The dairy industry is expected to achieve stable growth driven by increasing health awareness among consumers and advancements in dairy technology [6][7]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding into new consumer segments, particularly in adult nutrition products, which are projected to have significant growth potential [8][9]. - The company is also exploring cross-industry collaborations to create innovative ecosystems and enhance product offerings [9]. Group 4: Investment and Shareholder Returns - The company aims to maintain a stable dividend policy, with expectations of increasing dividend amounts compared to 2023, targeting a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years [16]. - The company is committed to maximizing shareholder value through consistent returns and effective cost management strategies [16]. Group 5: Raw Milk Supply and Demand Dynamics - The raw milk supply is currently in excess, but the growth rate of raw milk production is slowing, indicating a potential narrowing of the supply-demand gap in the near future [14][15]. - The company is actively working to balance raw milk supply and demand, with expectations of achieving basic equilibrium by next year [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 599.15 billion yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 9.49% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 75.31 billion yuan, an increase of 19.44% [3]. - The liquid milk and cold drink segments faced short-term pressure, but the growth of milk powder and dairy products accelerated [3]. - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company to be 116.72 billion yuan, 115.57 billion yuan, and 125.91 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products was 368.87 billion yuan (-13.05%), 145.09 billion yuan (+7.31%), 73.22 billion yuan (-20.04%), and 4.06 billion yuan (+26.59%) respectively [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 34.78%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in milk prices [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 12.57%, up 3.04 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from the increase in gross margin and investment income [3]. Sales and Distribution - The number of distributors decreased by 909 in H1 2024 but saw a net increase of 157 in Q2 2024, indicating a recovery in distributor numbers [3]. - Revenue from the North China, South China, Central China, East China, and other regions in H1 2024 was 167.98 billion yuan, 147.06 billion yuan, 109.98 billion yuan, 90.84 billion yuan, and 75.39 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.05%, 11.93%, 11.11%, 13.77%, and 5.05% [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with projected net profits showing a year-on-year growth of 11.92% in 2024, a slight decline of 0.98% in 2025, and a rebound of 8.95% in 2026 [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the company's performance, particularly in the milk powder and dairy product segments, despite current challenges in the liquid milk and cold drink markets [3].

公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 经营短期调整,期待轻装上阵 2024 年中报点评 核心观点 ● ● 事件:8月29日,公司发布公告,24H1 实现营收 599.1 亿元,同比-9.5%; 归母净利润 75.3亿元,同比+19.4%;扣非归母净利润 53.2 亿元,同比-12.8%。 其中 24Q2营收 273.4亿元,同比-16.5%;归母净利润16.1 亿元,同比-40.2%; 扣非归母净利润16.0亿元,同比-39.8%。 乳品需求偏淡,把握结构性增长机遇。当前乳制品行业供给阶段性过剩、需 求整体承压,公司主动优化渠道,多元拓展业务增量,部分抵御不利因素。分 产品看,24Q2奶粉及奶制品/其他产品收入同比+16.5%/+13.9%,婴幼儿奶粉 实现逆势增长,主要得益于优质产品迭代+二次配方注册带来的份额提升,龙 年新生儿数量回升亦有贡献;餐饮 B2B 实现营收双位数增长。液体乳/冷饮产 品收入同比-19.6%/-44.3%,液体乳系主动处理大日期产品,影响出货节奏; 冷饮业务受到天气因素与基数影响。分渠道看,24Q2经销/直营收入同比- 16.6%/-20.9%,经销商数量 18588 家,环比+0.9%。分 ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-080 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、回购股份的基本情况 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 4 月 28 日、2024 年 5 月 20 日召开第十一届董事会临时会议和 2023 年年 度股东大会，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案 的议案》，同意公司使用不低于人民币 10 亿元（含）且不超过人民币 20 亿元（含）的自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，回购价格不 超过人民币 41.88 元/股（含），回购期限自公司股东大会审议通过回购 方案之日起不超过 12 个月，回购股份将用于依法注销减少注册资本。具 体内容详见公司于 2024 年 5 月 21 日披露的《内蒙古伊利实业集团股份 有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的回购报告书》。 1 回购方案首次披露日 2024/4/30 回购方案实施期限 2024/5/20~2025/5/19 预计回购金额 10 亿元~20 亿元 回购 ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-081 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于股东股份补充质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 呼和浩特投资有限责任公司持有内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公 司（简称"公司"）股份538,535,826股，占公司总股本的8.46%。本次 补充质押后，呼和浩特投资有限责任公司所持公司股份累计质押数量 195,914,400股，占其持股总数的36.38%。 公司于2024年9月2日接到股东呼和浩特投资有限责任公司函告，获 悉其所持有本公司的部分股份办理了补充质押业务，具体事项如下： 三、股东累计质押股份情况 截至2024年9月2日，呼和浩特投资有限责任公司累计质押股份情况 如下: | 股东 | | 持股 | 本次质押前累 | 本次质押后累 | 占其所 | 占公司 总股本 | 已质押股份情况 已质押 | 已质押 | 未质押股份情况 未质押 | 未质押 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 30 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：22.63 元 伊利股份（600887）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 渠道库存调整基本到位，期待下半年轻装上阵 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营业总收入 599 亿元，同比下滑 9.5%；实现归母净利润 75.3亿元，同比增长 19.4%。其中 24Q2实现营业总收 入 273亿元，同比下滑 16.5%；实现归母净利润 16.1亿元，同比下滑 40.2%。 液奶渠道库存调整基本到位，奶粉及奶制品增速领先。2024H1液体乳、奶粉及 奶制品、冷饮产品分别实现营业收入 369亿元（-13%）、145亿元（+7.3%）、 73.2 亿元（-20%）。1）液体乳：渠道库存调整已基本到位，终端表现好于行 业整体，零售额继续稳居行业第一。白奶表现领先，低温液奶逆势增长。2）奶 粉及奶制品：公司整体婴幼儿奶粉、成人奶粉零售额市场份额分别达到 16.9%、 24.3%；奶酪线下零售额市场份额约 18.8%（+1.2pp）。3）冷饮：受天 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Hold" due to concerns over limited profit growth potential in the slowing dairy market [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry with strong brand power and solid fundamentals. However, the slowing market demand raises concerns about future profit growth [1]. - The company's revenue growth is expected to remain in the mid-single digits over the next 2-3 years, with profit growth projected in the mid to high single digits. The current valuation lacks sufficient cost-effectiveness [1]. - The future revenue growth is contingent on the recovery of end-demand, with a cautious approach to shipment schedules in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The company aims to increase shareholder returns, transitioning from a growth stock to a value stock, with a dividend payout ratio not less than 70% [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 123,171 million RMB, with a projected decline to 121,203 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of -3.9% [2]. - Net profit for 2022 was 9,431 million RMB, expected to rise to 12,319 million RMB by 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [2]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 12.9x for 2024 and 12.2x for 2026 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 18.1% in 2022 to 20.9% in 2024 [2]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's liquid milk revenue declined by 13% year-on-year, while excluding inventory clearance effects, a single-digit decline is anticipated [1][5]. - The company reported a 7.3% year-on-year increase in milk powder revenue in the first half of 2024, outperforming most peers [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 34.4%, showing an improvement from 32.8% in the first half of 2023 [5][6]. Market Outlook - The company faces challenges in enhancing profitability due to limited cost reduction opportunities, with management targeting a stable profit margin for 2024 [1]. - The overall industry outlook remains uncertain, impacting the company's long-term revenue growth prospects [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 59.9 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.531 billion yuan, an increase of 19.44% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively adjusting its shipment pace to clear channel inventory, which has impacted revenue in Q2 2024, particularly in liquid milk, while the milk powder segment showed strong performance [2][3]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and profit starting from Q3 2024, as the adjustments made in Q2 are nearing completion [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.3 billion yuan, down 16.54% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.608 billion yuan, down 40.21% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 33.84%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in raw milk prices [2]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 5.92%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, affected by increased sales expenses and asset impairment losses [2]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage, with its liquid milk products performing better than the industry average despite adjustments in shipment [2]. - The milk powder segment has seen significant growth, with market share reaching 16.9% for infant formula, and the adult powder segment remains the market leader [2]. - New business segments, such as cheese and water beverages, have also shown robust growth, with cheese C-end business recovering and achieving positive growth in Q2 [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to have an EPS of 1.81 yuan in 2024, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13 times, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [3]. - The long-term outlook for dairy consumption in China remains positive, correlating with GDP growth, suggesting potential for further consumption increases [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a sequential improvement in H2 2024, focusing on long-term growth [2][9] - The company reported a revenue of 59.696 billion (down 9.53%) and a net profit of 7.531 billion (up 19.44%) for H1 2024 [6][9] - The Q2 revenue was 27.233 billion (down 16.60%), with a net profit of 1.608 billion (down 40.21%) [6] Revenue Summary - Q2 revenue breakdown: liquid milk 16.626 billion (down 19.61%), milk powder 7.081 billion (up 16.49%), and cold drinks 2.989 billion (down 44.27%) [7] - The company actively adjusted its market share in Q2 to address challenges, leading to weaker performance in liquid milk [7] Profitability Summary - Q2 gross margin increased by 1.1 percentage points to 33.58%, driven by lower raw milk costs [8] - The net profit margin for Q2 was 5.94%, down 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by credit impairment losses of 440 million [8] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation, anticipating improved performance in H2 2024 as inventory levels stabilize and cost efficiencies are realized [9] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1218.95 billion, 1277.32 billion, and 1331.9 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 114.79 billion, 109.77 billion, and 118.16 billion [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The company has passed the peak pressure point for liquid milk inventory, with expectations for both revenue and profit to improve moving forward [3][4]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 599.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.49% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.44% to 75.31 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue is primarily due to inventory reduction in liquid milk and slow sales in cold beverages, which have negatively impacted profits [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company's gross margin was 35.02%, and net profit margin was 12.57%, showing improvements of 1.65 and 3.04 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The company experienced a significant increase in investment income, amounting to 26.28 billion yuan, primarily from the sale of a subsidiary [4]. - Credit impairment losses rose to 4.54 billion yuan, reflecting increased provisions due to cautious assessments of upstream partners [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2024, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold beverages, and other products was 368.87 billion yuan, 145.09 billion yuan, 73.22 billion yuan, and 4.06 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The revenue for liquid milk decreased by 13.05% year-on-year, while milk powder and dairy products saw a growth of 7.31% [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the second half of 2024 will see improved performance in the liquid milk segment as inventory pressures ease and marketing expenses stabilize [6]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 1197.91 billion yuan, 1249.49 billion yuan, and 1290.36 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of -5.06%, 4.31%, and 3.27%, respectively [6][8]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 121.68 billion yuan, 113.01 billion yuan, and 124.91 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.68%, -7.13%, and 10.53% [6][8].