来源：五道口江湖 12月12日，证券从业系统显示，中泰证券4大分析师同一天离任 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1、安永超，有色金属分析师 2、刘耀齐，有色金属分析师 3、陈凯丽，有色金属分析师 4、蔡星荷，中泰北交所&先进产业研究分析师 而中泰证券之前有色金属的首席分析师是谢鸿鹤，同样也是中泰证券的前副所长，已经在8月份正式加 入长城证券。 另外听说正在发nzj？有没有知情人士确认下？ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：何俊熹 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：五道口江湖 12月12日，证券从业系统显示，中泰证券4大分析师同一天离任 1、安永超，有色金属分析师 2、刘耀齐，有色金属分析师 3、陈凯丽，有色金属分析师 4、蔡星荷，中泰北交所&先进产业研究分析师 而中泰证券之前有色金属的首席分析师是谢鸿鹤，同样也是中泰证券的前副所长，已经在8月份正式加 入长城证券。 另外听说正 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guanglian Aviation is focusing on a strategic upgrade from a high-end component supplier to a full-space equipment solution provider, leveraging a "technology reuse, ecological extension, and full-space coverage" strategy [1][5]. Group 1: Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is expanding into commercial aerospace through the acquisition of Tianjin Yuefeng, which is seen as a key move due to the burgeoning market for rocket structure products [2][6]. - The acquisition is based on three main logics: the commercial aerospace sector is at a pre-explosion stage with vast market potential; Tianjin Yuefeng possesses leading technology and qualifications in rocket metal structures; and the potential for technology reuse to extend from national mission rockets to commercial operational rockets [2][6]. - The company aims to achieve strategic control with a 51% stake in Tianjin Yuefeng, with plans to increase this stake based on future developments [6]. Group 2: Business Segments - In the maritime sector, the company is focusing on deep-sea equipment, main warships, and civil vessels, addressing traditional metal hull challenges through technological breakthroughs [3][4]. - In the land sector, the company is centered on robotics, providing technical solutions for humanoid and industrial robots, and is also entering the controlled nuclear fusion research support field [4]. - In the aerospace sector, the company is leveraging composite material technology for rocket fairings and satellites, with plans to acquire Tianjin Yuefeng to enhance its capabilities in commercial aerospace [5]. Group 3: Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has established deep strategic partnerships with industry leaders like Gongda Satellite, providing core structural components for satellites and covering major domestic rocket models [8]. - The company is also collaborating with leading gas turbine manufacturers, enhancing its role as a strategic supplier through a comprehensive production system that supports various stages of the supply chain [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Outlook and Management - The company is implementing strategies to optimize order structure and enhance capacity utilization to address profit fluctuations, with a long-term view of gradually increasing profitability as new capacity is released [12]. - The chairman has returned to normal duties, and the company has maintained efficient operations during his absence, indicating a robust governance structure and stable customer relationships [11].

Core Viewpoint - The changes in institutional liability behavior have become a primary driving factor for trends and structures in the equity market this year, despite marginal changes in macroeconomic conditions and liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Behavior and Market Trends - The shift in institutional liability behavior is more fundamental than the observed capital flow phenomena, indicating a reversal from years of chasing low-risk assets to a focus on performance-driven technology stocks and a withdrawal from long-duration bonds [2]. - The increase in the proportion of dividend insurance, multi-asset products in wealth management, and the conversion of matured fixed deposits have indirectly influenced long-term changes in institutional behavior [2]. Group 2: Bull Market Outlook - The current bull market is expected to continue, driven by liability-side factors pushing institutional allocations towards the stock market. The period from 2022 to 2024 saw capital flowing out of the stock market into low-risk assets, with 2025 marking a turning point back towards equities [3]. - As of the first three quarters of this year, net inflows into the stock market from insurance amounted to approximately 1.44 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.1 trillion yuan after excluding market value growth [3]. Group 3: Forecasts for Future Inflows - Predictions for 2026 indicate that institutional inflows into the stock market will reach approximately 3.1 trillion yuan, with the scale of public fixed income products expected to double from this year's levels [3][4]. - The expected inflows from insurance, wealth management, and pension funds for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan, respectively [4][18]. Group 4: Wealth Management and Pension Fund Dynamics - The amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2025-2026 is estimated to reach 142 trillion yuan, with a portion likely to be reinvested in wealth management products, potentially increasing equity investment proportions to 4% and 6% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][23]. - Pension funds are anticipated to contribute significantly to the stock market, with expected inflows of approximately 6.8 billion yuan and 8.0 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. Group 5: Quantitative Analysis of Investment Behavior - The insurance sector's investment portfolio needs to increase its equity proportion by 4.96% to achieve a balanced return, with a target equity investment ratio of 18.31% [4][17]. - The growth in the scale of wealth management products is expected to continue, with significant inflows projected as fixed deposits mature and investors seek higher returns [24].

来源：中泰证券研究所 原标题： 《为有源头活水来：从资金现象到负债行为》 今年，在宏观和流动性边际变化不大的情况下，机构负债行为的变化成为了权益市场趋势和结构的主要 驱动因子。 我们认为相比于机构买卖呈现的资金流现象，机构背后负债行为的变化更为本质。 回顾今年，市场投票到有业绩的科技股、流出利率敏感性资产超长债等，代表着持续了多年的"追逐无 风险资产交易"的逆转。 分红险占比的提高、理财固收多资产产品的提高，和定存到期的转换，负债行为的变化间接影响了机构 行为的长期变化。 今年我们坚定看好本轮牛市，看多的逻辑来自于负债端驱动机构配置向股市倾斜。 如果说2022-2024年是一轮周期，各路资金从股市流出，先后涌入定期存款、债券、红利、黄金等"低风 险资产"，那么2025年就是天平重新转向股票的转折点。 今年我们持续强调险资增配股票，这只是一个缩影，展望明年，负债端的力量还将继续发挥作用，并产 生势不可挡的力量。 分析牛市能持续多久，从负债驱动的视角，需要明确，第一，今年以来的牛市途中负债驱动形成了多少 流入股市的资金；第二，展望明年，负债驱动的力量还有多强？ 2025年股市已经实现了2.26万亿的净流入。 截至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The changes in institutional liability behavior have become a major driving factor for trends and structures in the equity market this year, despite marginal changes in macroeconomic conditions and liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Behavior and Market Trends - The shift in institutional liability behavior is more fundamental than the observed capital flow phenomena, indicating a reversal from years of chasing low-risk assets to a focus on performance-driven technology stocks and a withdrawal from long-duration bonds [2]. - The increase in the proportion of dividend insurance, the rise of multi-asset products in wealth management, and the conversion of maturing fixed deposits have indirectly influenced long-term changes in institutional behavior [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Predictions - The current bull market is expected to continue, driven by liabilities pushing institutional allocations towards the stock market, with 2025 seen as a turning point for a shift back to equities [3]. - As of the first three quarters of this year, net inflows into the stock market from insurance amounted to approximately 1.44 trillion yuan, while pension funds contributed around 418.1 billion yuan [3][12]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that institutional inflows into the stock market could reach 3.1 trillion yuan, with the scale of public fixed income products expected to double from this year's levels [3][5]. Group 3: Specific Contributions from Different Sectors - Insurance sector: The expected incremental funds entering the market from insurance in 2026 are projected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan, increasing to 1.7 trillion yuan in 2027, with the equity allocation needing to rise to 18.31% [4][18][22]. - Wealth management: With a significant amount of fixed deposits maturing, the expected incremental funds from wealth management products are estimated to be 905.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.3567 trillion yuan in 2027, assuming a gradual increase in equity investment [23][24]. - Pension funds: Long-term investment strategies are expected to drive pension funds to contribute approximately 678.8 billion yuan in 2026 and 801 billion yuan in 2027 to the stock market [4][15]. Group 4: Overall Market Dynamics - The total net inflow into the stock market for 2025 is projected to be around 2.26 trillion yuan, with contributions from various sectors including insurance, wealth management, and foreign investments [3][16]. - The growth in the broad fixed income plus (固收+) fund scale is expected to at least double, potentially reaching 36.099 trillion yuan by 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), highlighting the company's strong capabilities in commercial channels, which ensure revenue and profit growth, supported by stable property channels for steady performance improvement [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and a net profit attributable to equity shareholders of 2 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [1] - The company's comprehensive gross margin was 37.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, with all expense ratios declining, leading to improved operational efficiency [1] - The interim dividend per share was 0.529, a significant increase of 89.6%, with a payout ratio of 60%, up 24 percentage points [1] Group 2: Commercial Channel Performance - In the first half of 2025, revenue from the commercial channel reached 3.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.65%, with a gross margin of 66.1%, up 5.2 percentage points [1] - The total operational area of shopping centers reached 13.093 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.11%, with 84.4% of the area coming from the parent company [1] - The commercial channel revenue accounted for 38.3% of total revenue, becoming a key driver for overall revenue and profit growth [1] Group 3: Property Management Performance - In the first half of 2025, property channel revenue was 5.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a gross margin of 18.8%, down 0.1 percentage points [2] - Revenue from property management services was 3.5 billion, up 8.8% year-on-year, with a managed area of 27.5505 million square meters, an increase of 6.2% [2] - The company has a balanced business structure in property management, effectively combining resources from both the parent company and third parties [2]

Core Viewpoint - The changes in institutional liability behavior have become a major driving factor for trends and structures in the equity market this year, despite marginal changes in macroeconomic conditions and liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Behavior and Market Trends - The shift in institutional liability behavior is more fundamental than the observed capital flow phenomena, indicating a reversal from years of chasing low-risk assets to a focus on performance-driven technology stocks and a withdrawal from long-duration bonds [2]. - The increase in the proportion of dividend insurance, the rise of multi-asset products in wealth management, and the conversion of maturing fixed deposits have indirectly influenced long-term changes in institutional behavior [2][3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Predictions - The current bull market is expected to continue, driven by liability-side factors pushing institutional allocations towards the stock market, with 2025 seen as a turning point for a shift back to equities [3]. - As of the first three quarters of this year, net inflows into the stock market from insurance amounted to approximately 1.44 trillion yuan, while pension funds contributed around 418.1 billion yuan [3][12]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that institutional inflows into the stock market could reach 3.1 trillion yuan, with the scale of public fixed income products expected to double from this year's levels [3][5]. Group 3: Specific Contributions from Different Sectors - Insurance sector: The expected incremental funds entering the market from insurance in 2026 are projected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan, increasing to 1.7 trillion yuan in 2027, with the equity allocation needing to rise to 18.31% [4][18][22]. - Wealth management: With a significant amount of fixed deposits maturing, a portion of these funds is anticipated to flow into wealth management products, potentially contributing 905.1 billion yuan and 1.3567 trillion yuan to the equity market in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10][23]. - Pension funds: Long-term investment strategies are expected to drive pension funds to contribute approximately 678.8 billion yuan and 801 billion yuan in incremental funds in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. Group 4: Quantitative Data and Market Dynamics - The total net inflow into the stock market for 2025 is estimated at 2.26 trillion yuan, with contributions from various sectors including insurance, wealth management, and foreign investments [3][16]. - The wealth management sector saw a net outflow of 108 billion yuan from the stock market in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift in investment strategies [10][14]. - The private equity sector is also showing signs of recovery, with an estimated inflow of 343.1 billion yuan into the stock market in 2025 [16].

（原标题：中泰证券戴志锋：未来城市更新将更加注重功能完善和品质提升） 人民财讯12月14日电，12月14日，中泰证券研究所所长、金融研究大组组长戴志锋表示，今年的中央经 济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为明年首要任务，充分体现了扩大内需在经济工作 全局中的重要地位。投资端"推动投资止跌回稳"的表述直指当前痛点。今年以来固定资产投资增速持续 放缓，特别是房地产投资和民间投资压力较大。"高质量推进城市更新"被单独提出，其深意在于：城市 更新不同于传统的大拆大建，更加注重功能完善和品质提升，投资周期长、带动效应强，能够成为对冲 房地产投资下行的重要抓手。 ...

12月14日，中泰证券研究所所长、金融研究大组组长戴志锋表示，今年的中央经济工作会议在"坚持改 革攻坚"部分提出"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"，延续了去年会议的改革要求，体现了资本市场 改革的连续性和系统性。值得注意的是，本次会议对资本市场的表述相对简洁，没有像去年那样单独强 调"稳股市"。这一方面说明今年资本市场改革措施已经取得积极成效，市场运行总体平稳；另一方面也 表明，资本市场的稳定发展需要融入经济工作全局，通过提升服务实体经济能力、优化投融资功能来实 现内生性稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the article emphasizes the importance of the capital market in supporting national strategies and empowering the real economy, with a focus on structural opportunities arising from advancements in artificial intelligence and emerging industries [1][2][3] - The 2026 capital market is expected to present more structural opportunities, particularly influenced by the fourth industrial revolution and technological advancements [3][5] - The current economic structure in China shows a surplus in supply but a lack of demand, leading to downward pressure on prices, which is a structural issue that needs long-term observation [5][7] Group 2 - The improvement in the profitability of listed companies is a key factor supporting the performance of the A-share market this year, with a year-on-year profit growth of 5.47% in the first three quarters, surpassing the actual GDP growth rate [7][8] - The growth in profitability is concentrated in sectors such as software and services, technology hardware, and materials, while industries like real estate and consumer services are experiencing significant declines [8][9] - The 2026 market outlook includes a focus on four main directions: strong performance in gold and related sectors due to geopolitical tensions, long-term growth in AI technology stocks, emerging consumption trends related to younger demographics, and the attractiveness of high-dividend and fixed-income assets [9][11]