Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Bank successfully hosted the "Suyin Cross-border: Set Sail" event to support Chinese enterprises going global, focusing on the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Central Asia as key areas for expansion [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event gathered leaders from Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce, Shanghai Pudong New Area Business Committee, and industry experts, along with over a hundred representatives from Chinese enterprises [1]. - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is highlighted as a crucial hub for linking global resources and expanding international markets, while Central Asia is identified as a potential blue ocean for economic cooperation [3]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - Jiangsu Bank's President Yuan Jun emphasized the bank's commitment to accompany Chinese enterprises in seizing opportunities in the Pudong Free Trade Zone and exploring the Central Asian market [3]. - The event featured a keynote speech by Liang Zhonghua, Chief Macro Analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, providing macroeconomic insights for corporate strategic decision-making [5]. Group 3: Support Services - The Shanghai Pudong New Area Business Committee's Deputy Director Dong Xiaoling delivered a presentation on development opportunities in Pudong, aiding enterprises in understanding regional dynamics [5]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the Shanghai Pudong New Area Enterprise Going Global Comprehensive Service Center and Jiangsu Bank Shanghai Branch to empower enterprises in their international ventures [5]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - Ding Hai, Vice President of Suhao Holdings Group, introduced the China-Central Asia Trade Connectivity Cooperation Platform, offering comprehensive support for enterprises entering the Central Asian market [8]. - Askar Dairova, representative from the Kazakhstan Trade Policy Development Center, discussed Kazakhstan's trade policies and cooperation opportunities, providing essential references for enterprises [8]. Group 5: Financial Services - Jiangsu Bank's Assistant General Manager of the International Business Department, Chen Lingjia, elaborated on the "Suyin Cross-border" brand, which offers a comprehensive cross-border service solution based on a "4+6" financial and non-financial service system [10]. - The bank aims to continue providing one-stop support for clients' global operations, focusing on innovation and customer-centric services [12].

Group 1 - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.31% on December 8, with Shanghai Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] - Key individual stock performances in the city commercial bank sector included Xiamen Bank rising by 3.32% and Shanghai Bank falling by 1.43% [1][2] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds into the city commercial bank sector was 129 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 156 million yuan [2] - The table of fund flows indicated that Jiangsu Bank had a net outflow of 56.86 million yuan from main funds, while Hangzhou Bank had a net inflow of 49.79 million yuan [3] - The overall trend showed that retail investors were withdrawing funds from several banks, with notable outflows from Suzhou Bank and Qingdao Bank [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the ΔEVE (Economic Value of Equity) indicator for major banks has decreased compared to 2024, with some banks potentially exceeding the regulatory requirement of -15% [4][15] - The report highlights that for every 20 trillion yuan of local government bonds undertaken by banks, the ΔEVE/ Tier 1 capital ratio deteriorates by 0.65% to 1.73% [24][25] - The current regulatory buffer allows major banks to undertake approximately 666.8 billion yuan of 30-year local government bonds [33][34] - The report suggests a potential relaxation of regulatory requirements for interest rate risk indicators, which could facilitate banks' ability to manage long-term local government bonds [7] Summary by Sections ΔEVE Indicator Assessment - As of H1 2025, the ΔEVE/ Tier 1 capital ratio for major banks is as follows: ICBC at -16.66%, CCB at -17.26%, ABC at -14.89%, BOC at -12.28%, PSBC at -9.02%, and BC at -12.46% [15][16] - The report notes a decline in the ΔEVE indicator for these banks compared to 2024, with specific changes of -1.95pct for ICBC and -2.52pct for CCB [4][15] Local Government Bond Undertaking - The report estimates that major banks added 3.25 trillion yuan in local government bonds in H1 2025, with state-owned banks accounting for 1.86 trillion yuan, representing 57.2% of the total [5][32] - The duration of local government bonds is assumed to be distributed across various terms, with 30% of bonds being 10 years and 23% being 30 years [25][29] Debt Capacity Assessment - The current regulatory buffer allows major banks to support the undertaking of 30-year local government bonds up to 666.8 billion yuan, with potential increases if regulatory requirements are relaxed [33][34] - For every 1% relaxation in the ΔEVE/ Tier 1 capital ratio, banks could undertake an additional 593.4 billion yuan of 30-year local government bonds [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a bottom-line allocation to large state-owned banks, with specific beneficiaries being ABC and ICBC [39] - Core allocations should focus on leading comprehensive banks, with recommended stocks including CMB and CCB [39] - For flexible allocations, regional banks with unique characteristics, such as JSB and CQB, are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [10] Core Insights - The banking sector has experienced a third consecutive week of decline, primarily due to a rebound in market risk appetite, leading to the outflow of previously defensive capital. The bond market has also adjusted, affecting investment returns. Despite short-term style changes, the report remains optimistic about the revaluation direction of bank stocks, particularly favoring large banks like Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank, as well as leading city commercial banks such as Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [2][7] - Recent adjustments in insurance risk factors encourage long-term allocations towards low volatility dividend stocks and technology innovation sectors. The National Financial Regulatory Administration has lowered risk factors for certain indices, which is expected to enhance the solvency of insurance companies and promote long-term investments in quality equity assets [4][39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index fell by 1.1% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.3% and 2.9% respectively. The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares rose to 3.85%, with a 200 basis point spread over the 10-year government bond yield. H-shares maintain a 5% average dividend yield, with a 23% discount compared to A-shares [7][20][26] Credit Growth - As of the end of October 2025, credit growth across various regions remains differentiated, with major provinces like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Sichuan, and Anhui maintaining growth rates above 8%. Sichuan leads with a growth rate of 10.8%. Corporate loans continue to be the main growth driver, with Jiangsu and Sichuan showing growth rates of 13.6% and 13.3% respectively [6][34] Insurance Capital Allocation - Insurance capital is in a continuous process of increasing allocations to bank stocks, particularly during the third quarter adjustment period. The report outlines three core strategies for capital allocation: large insurance funds strategically investing in state-owned banks and leading city commercial banks, and smaller insurance companies seeking long-term equity investment opportunities in smaller banks [5][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The positioning of the digital RMB is expected to advance, with significant potential in the payment sector. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is working on optimizing the management system for digital RMB, which may evolve from a cash-like payment instrument (M0) to broader monetary categories (M1, M2) [2][8]. - Infrastructure development for digital RMB is progressing, with the establishment of international and operational centers in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction amount in pilot areas reached 14.2 trillion yuan, with 2.25 billion personal wallets opened [3][8]. - The banking sector is expected to see a systematic recovery in valuations in 2026, transitioning from a defensive to a growth-oriented investment logic. Key investment themes include high dividend yields and low valuations, particularly as risk-free interest rates decline [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector comprises 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, representing 13.04% of the market [4]. - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 10,583.60 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.65% increase from the previous week [8]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [5]. - The report highlights that the banking index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points during the week [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. State-owned banks and major commercial banks like China Merchants Bank. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with improving net interest margins and credit costs. 3. City commercial banks benefiting from regional policies and showing significant performance potential [9]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and several city commercial banks such as Chengdu Bank and Chongqing Bank [9][10].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The banking industry's net interest margin (NIM) is expected to reach its bottom level around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating a potential end to the current downtrend in NIM [1][42]. - The report predicts a decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 10 basis points (bps) in 2026, which will likely lead to a year-on-year decrease in NIM of about 5 to 8 bps [2][3]. - The monetary policy for 2026 is characterized as "reasonable and ample" with a focus on precise adjustments, aiming to balance economic growth and financial stability [3][67]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality stocks that are expected to see an inflection point in NIM, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also considering stocks with attractive dividend yields like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][5]. NIM Analysis - The report estimates that the NIM for 2026 will narrow by approximately 2 to 5 bps, marking the likely end of the current downtrend cycle [66]. - The projected decline in loan rates is about 24 bps, which will negatively impact NIM by approximately 15 bps, while deposit rates are expected to decrease by 14 to 17 bps, providing a positive impact on NIM of about 10 to 13 bps [66][60]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy framework for 2026 emphasizes a balanced approach, with the LPR expected to decrease by 10 bps, contingent on economic conditions [3][68]. - The report highlights that maintaining stability in NIM and deposit rates will be a key objective for the People's Bank of China in 2026 [71][72].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of balancing positions, indicators, and costs in treasury liability strategies, focusing on liquidity management and cost optimization [2][14][16] - Current treasury strategies are characterized by a focus on long-term funding, short-term deposits, cost control, and improving liquidity indicators, with banks experiencing reduced cost pressures and increased expected liquidity gaps [3][4][6] - The report identifies that the expected liquidity gap is exacerbated by factors such as the non-bankization of deposits and the concentration of high-interest deposits maturing, estimating that 17 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits will mature in the second half of 2025, and 26 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026 [3][4][19] Group 2 - The liquidity risk indicators are under pressure, with some joint-stock banks experiencing a rapid decline in their Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), indicating a reliance on the liability side for liquidity adjustments [4][5][22] - The report suggests that the pricing of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) may increasingly reflect internal management demands, with banks focusing on managing liquidity gaps and improving liquidity indicators through NCD issuance [5][6][20] - Investment recommendations include positioning in large state-owned banks, core holdings in leading comprehensive banks, and flexible allocations in regional banks, with specific banks identified as beneficiaries [6][14][19]

Core Points - Jiangsu Bank issued a new financial bond on December 3, 2025, with a total issuance amount of 5 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.87% [1] Group 1 - The bond is a 3-year floating rate bond [1] - The issuance is part of Jiangsu Bank's ongoing financing strategy [1]

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