晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 033 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 1 银行业（郭怡萍） 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年四季度银行业主要监管指标数据情况。 商业银行盈利增速回正，净利润增速逐季提升。2025 年，商业银行净利润同比增长 2.3%， 年内净利润增速持续提升。分机构类型看，城商行和农商行净利润增速在低基数基础上实 现较快的利润增长，净利润增速分别达 12.9%和 4.6%。大型银行净利润增速持平为 2.3%， 股份制银行净利润增速则下降至-2.8%。商业银行资本利润率 7.78%，资产利润率 0.60%，均 较前值有所下降。其中，大型银行资产利润率保持在 0.67%，体现一定盈利能力韧性。 商业银行息差延续边际趋稳态势，支持提升核心盈利能力。四季度银行净利息收益率 1.42%，持平于三季度，二季度以来净息差整体保持稳定，有助于提升核心盈利能力。全年 来看，商业银行息差同比下降 11 BP，基本符合预期，其中城商行息差体现出较强的韧性， 同比仅下行 1 BP。商业银行非利息收入占比为 22.53%，较三季度继续下降，主要是债市波 动所致。 时 间：2026 ...

股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted the 2025 assessment of systemically important banks, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1] Group 1: Assessment of Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1] - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group consisting of 11 banks, the second group having 4 banks, the third group with 2 banks, the fourth group containing 4 banks, and the fifth group having no banks [1] Group 2: Breakdown of Bank Groups - The first group includes: China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1] - The second group consists of: Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1] - The third group includes: Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1] - The fourth group comprises: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] - The fifth group currently has no banks included [1] Group 3: Future Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will implement additional regulatory measures for systemically important banks according to the "Regulations on Additional Supervision of Systemically Important Banks (Trial)" [1] - The aim is to enhance the synergy between macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision, ensuring the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks [1] - This initiative is intended to better support the high-quality development of the real economy [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The banking index fell by 1.3% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [6][19] - H-shares of banks led the gains, while most A-shares declined, with notable performances from Huaxia Bank and Shanghai Bank due to improved earnings and strong expectations for convertible bond conversions [6][19] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio and return on equity (ROE) of bank stocks remain undervalued, with a continued recommendation for high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, and Suzhou Bank [6][19] - The report also suggests focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend, and convertible bond opportunities, particularly in Industrial Bank [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector's trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates falling, although the transaction volume share for state-owned and rural commercial banks has rebounded [8][39] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.28%, with a spread of 249 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while H-shares yield 5.21% [7][29] Profit Growth and Net Interest Margin - The overall asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 9.0% year-on-year by the end of Q4 2025, with major state-owned banks seeing a growth rate of 10.8% [9][44] - The net profit growth for commercial banks was 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend, particularly among city and rural commercial banks [9][44] - The net interest margin for 2025 is projected at 1.42%, with a marginal stabilization observed, and a further narrowing of the decline expected in 2026 [9][46] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios across various banks are stable or improving, attributed to increased write-off efforts, while the provision coverage ratio continues to decline [10][49] - Capital adequacy ratios remain stable, with attention on the potential impact of the second round of fiscal injections for state-owned banks and refinancing for smaller banks in 2026 [10][49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% in Q4 2025, showing an improvement compared to the previous quarters [4][10]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.42%, with expectations of a narrowing decline in 2026 due to the re-pricing of high-cost long-term deposits and a slowdown in the reduction of new loan rates [4][10]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.50%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4][10]. - The capital adequacy ratio improved slightly to 15.5%, reflecting a marginal increase in capital levels [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Regulatory Indicators for Q4 2025 - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with large banks showing a growth rate of 10.8% [7]. - The average capital return rate was 7.78%, and the average asset return rate was 0.60% [10]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and ensuring adequate liquidity [10]. - The banking sector's focus for 2026 includes identifying banks with potential for performance growth, particularly recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [4][10]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - The report includes weekly tracking of stock performance, with notable fluctuations in bank stock prices, indicating market volatility [18].

每经AI快讯，据证券时报·数据宝统计，1月以来，调研机构数在50家及以上且评级机构数在10家及以上 的公司，合计有35家。其中，大金重工获得318家机构调研居首。从评级机构数来看，中际旭创获34家 机构评级居首。江苏银行、上海银行、南京银行3只银行股进入榜单，其中江苏银行有多达133家机构调 研。数据显示，上榜个股今年以来平均涨幅超过16%，远超大盘同期表现。其中，帝科股份、菜百股 份、洁美科技、美好医疗等个股均涨超40%。 ...

节后行情怎么走？机构扎堆调研情况或提供一些线索。 随着春节假期进入尾声，市场即将重新开市，投资者关注度逐渐升温，机构资金的动向尤为引人瞩目。 其中，大金重工获得318家机构调研居首。公司在近期的调研中表示，英国AR7拍卖了8.4GW的海风项 目，超出前期市场预计数量，项目规模和补贴金额均创历史新高，固定式和漂浮式项目的执行电价相较 上一轮均实现同比上升，补贴年限也从15年延长至20年，提高了开发商的参与热情。另外，AR8预计在 今年也将拍出一定体量的项目量。本轮AR7中标的业主是公司已合作的重要客户，公司对本年市场订单 的获取很有信心。 从评级机构数来看，中际旭创获34家机构评级居首。国泰海通证券认为，公司业绩符合预期。从行业情 况看，1.6T有望在2026年快速上量，2027年需求有望进一步大幅提升。公司为云数据中心客户提供 400G、800G和1.6T等高速光模块，赢得了海内外客户的广泛认可，并保持了市场份额的持续成长，有 望大幅受益。 江苏银行、上海银行、南京银行3只银行股进入榜单，其中江苏银行有多达133家机构调研。 在众多的市场参与主体中，机构投资者凭借其专业的研究能力和信息优势，往往能率先布局具备 ...

据经济观察报-经济观察网 2025年，中国手机银行用户规模见顶，行业从增量获取转入存量提升，金融 机构需极致效率与精准生态才能生存。艾瑞咨询报告显示，在存量博弈中，股份制银行选择差异化生存 路径，头部效应显著。招商银行以7185.4万MAU稳居股份制银行首位，超越部分国有大行，得益于其 在财富管理与智能交互领域的深耕。平安银行与中信银行构成第二梯队，MAU维持在2000万至3000万 区间，前者通过AI重构服务链路，后者依托消费生态整合。民生银行、光大银行等第三梯队及之后机 构，MAU滑落至1000万至2000万区间，生存空间逼仄。地方银行中，深耕本地的机构逆势增长。城商 行如江苏银行、北京银行等，MAU稳定在300万以上；农商行与农信社中，福建农信等MAU突破450 万，占据县域与农村流量腹地。民营银行处境严峻，2025年TOP50榜单几近绝迹，因缺乏线下网点、本 地生活生态，且获客成本高，在手机银行赛道失去竞争力。存量时代，生态与区域能力成为制胜关键。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese mobile banking market is entering a stage of stock competition in 2025, with monthly active users (MAU) stabilizing between 648 million and 739 million [2] - State-owned commercial banks dominate the market due to their ecological embedding advantages, with Agricultural Bank of China leading at 249 million MAU, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (194 million) and China Construction Bank (109 million) [2] - Private banks are expected to collectively exit the top 50 MAU rankings in 2025 due to a lack of offline branch support and local living ecosystems [2] Group 1: Major Players - Agricultural Bank of China has the highest MAU at 249 million, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with 194 million and China Construction Bank with 109 million, forming the first tier of banks [2] - China Bank and Postal Savings Bank have MAUs exceeding 50 million, constituting the second tier [2] - China Merchants Bank leads the joint-stock banks with 71.85 million MAU, while Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank form the second tier, with other joint-stock banks generally below 20 million MAU [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The core advantage of state-owned banks lies in their "full-scenario integration" capabilities, embedding services deeply into high-frequency life scenarios such as government affairs, social security, healthcare, and education [2] - Agricultural Bank of China extends its services to rural areas through intelligent service matching and customer customization, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China utilizes its "Gong Xiao Zhi" model for interactive service [2] - Regional banks like Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, and Ningbo Bank show stable performance by focusing on local markets, with some rural commercial banks like Fujian Rural Credit exceeding 4.5 million MAU, indicating the sustainability of localized operations in the stock market [2]