Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume-based timing signals to assess market sentiment and provide trading signals[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the volume timing signals of major broad-based indices - Signals are categorized as "cautious" or "optimistic" based on volume trends - As of January 30, 2026, all major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward approach to gauge market sentiment but may lack granularity in capturing nuanced market dynamics[23][24] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 Index over a specific period[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - The indicator is calculated as: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages with different window periods (N1 = 50, N2 = 35) to create a "fast line" and a "slow line" - A buy signal is generated when the fast line exceeds the slow line, and a neutral signal is generated when the fast line falls below the slow line[26][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator is effective in capturing upward market opportunities but may fail to predict downturns accurately. It also tends to miss gains during prolonged market exuberance[25] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index and generate trading signals[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 Index closing price with parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 - Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds: - If the price exceeds more than five moving averages, the sentiment is bullish - Generate a buy signal when the current price exceeds five moving averages[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear framework for trend analysis but may oversimplify complex market dynamics[36] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Model - All major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals as of January 30, 2026[24] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 N-day upward stock proportion indicator was above 60% as of January 30, 2026, indicating high market sentiment[25] - The fast line was above the slow line, suggesting a bullish outlook for the CSI 300 Index[26] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 Index was in a "sentiment prosperity zone" as of January 30, 2026, indicating a bullish sentiment[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to assess the Alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures short-term Alpha opportunities but may not fully reflect long-term trends[37] 2. Factor Name: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituents over time to assess the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides insights into market stability but may be less effective in highly volatile markets[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-sectional Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.14%, in the 69.55th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.45%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.61%, in the 66.93rd percentile of the past two years[38] 2. Time-series Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 0.96%, in the 57.20th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.22%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.17%, in the 64.94th percentile of the past two years[41]

Group 1 - In the past five trading days, a total of 162 companies were investigated by institutions, with Jiangsu Bank, Aerospace Hongtu, and Nanjing Bank being the most frequently researched [1][8] - Among the 162 companies, 143 were surveyed by securities firms, accounting for 88.27% of the total investigations, followed by 118 by fund companies and 67 by private equity firms [1][8] - Jiangsu Bank received the highest attention with 133 institutions participating in its research, followed by Aerospace Hongtu with 101 institutions and Nanjing Bank with 76 institutions [1][8] Group 2 - In terms of research frequency, Hai'an Group was the most intensely surveyed, receiving four investigations, while Haixia Co. and Tianlu Technology were each surveyed three times [1][8] - Among the stocks investigated by more than 20 institutions, 12 experienced net capital inflows in the past five days, with Jiangsu Bank seeing a net inflow of 1.047 billion yuan, the highest among them [1][8] Group 3 - In market performance, 17 stocks among those investigated rose in the past five days, with the highest increase seen in Liancheng CNC at 61.55%, followed by Zhongwei New Materials at 11.49% and Huatong Cable at 11.42% [2][9] - Conversely, 17 stocks declined, with the largest drop in Haozhi Electromechanical at 16.74%, followed by Wolong Nuclear Materials at 16.19% and Kaitai Co. at 12.37% [2][9] Group 4 - Among the stocks investigated, Nanjing Bank reported a net profit increase of 8.08% in its 2025 performance forecast, while Shenghong Technology is expected to have a median net profit of 4.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 277.68% [2][9]

行业点评报告 · 银行行业 银行板块配置窗口开启 —— 从资金流向看银行定价逻辑 2026 年 01 月 29 日 核心观点 银行行业 | | | 分析师 张一纬 ：010-80927617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理：袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⚫ 市场风格切换，主动型资金延续欠配状态，偏好度维持低点：2025Q4 主 动型基金对银行持仓总市值为 305.45 亿元，占比为 1.88%，环比+0.07pct， 仍处于近五年低位；低配比例为 8.88%，环比扩大 0.5pct。资金主要流向有 色金属、通信、非银金融行业，持仓占比分别较上季度+2.07pct、+1.89pct、 +1.03pct。2025Q3 以来，市场风格切换，板块轮动明显。2026 年年初至 1 月 28 日，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.9%，有色金属、石油石化、传媒行业涨幅居 前，分别上涨 28.89%、12.49%、12.22%，银行板块下跌 7.68%，表现弱于 其他行业。整体来看，银行板块受主动 ...

在金融消费场景化，年轻化愈发显著的当下，如何打破传统金融的刻板印象成了银行业转型的重要课 题，而江苏银行则给出了一个极具创新性的答案。 在成功牵手苏超并实现"金融+体育"的跨界出圈后，江苏银行在1月正式上线了"球宝养成记"。这项活动 以"专属城市足球形象养成"为核心，打造了一套机制简洁的长期陪伴体系。 用户可认领对应江苏13座城市的专属球宝，并通过完成日常登录、业务办理等指定行为积累"水"和"能 量棒"，助力球宝升级，最终解锁"闪光足球"道具，即可兑换其他城市球宝皮肤。未来还将开放趣味抽 奖、城市探索等隐藏玩法，持续提升参与感。 苏超IP再延伸 2025年，江苏省城市足球联赛（以下简称"苏超"）成为了一起现象级的体育事件。这场由江苏省体育局 主导，并以"全民参与+城市荣誉"为核心理念的足球赛事，共吸引了243万人次现场观赛，场均观众达 2.8万人，线上直播观看达22.2亿人次。而11月1日晚的苏超决赛更是以62329名现场人数刷新了全国业余 足球赛事纪录。 此次赛事的商业价值同样亮眼，前六轮赛事便带动了旅游、餐饮、住宿等相关服务业实现营收379.6亿 元；而在线上，抖音"苏超"相关内容累计播放达370亿次（5 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Jiangsu Provincial Urban Football League (referred to as "Su Super") is set to continue the momentum generated by its inaugural season in 2025, with a strong lineup of sponsors and heightened public interest [1][2] Sponsorship and Financial Aspects - The 2026 season has attracted 24 sponsors, including notable companies such as Jiangsu Bank, Suhao Holding Group, Heineken, Adidas, and Ant Financial, showcasing a robust sponsorship portfolio [1][2] - The total sponsorship amount for the 2026 season was previously reported to exceed 202 million yuan, although this figure is still subject to confirmation due to pending agreements [2] Audience Engagement and Popularity - The inaugural season of Su Super saw significant audience engagement, with a total attendance of 2.43 million across 85 matches, averaging 28,000 spectators per match, and online viewership reaching 2.2 billion [4] - The league has generated a cultural phenomenon, with various social media trends and memes emerging from the matches, indicating a strong community connection and engagement [4][5] Socioeconomic Context - The success of Su Super is attributed to the unique competitive spirit among the 13 cities in Jiangsu, each with its own economic strengths and cultural pride, creating a vibrant local rivalry [5][6] - The league's rapid growth in sponsorship from 6 to nearly 40 partners within a year reflects the effective governance and responsiveness of local authorities to capitalize on this sporting event [5] Changes and Innovations for the New Season - The 2026 season will introduce a new competition format, including a two-leg knockout stage in the playoffs, increasing the total number of matches to 91 [8] - The league will also expand its sponsorship model to include small and micro enterprises, allowing them to participate as official sponsors, thereby enhancing community involvement [9] Broader Implications and Future Prospects - The success of Su Super has inspired other regions to launch similar sports events, but experts suggest that replicating its success requires a deep understanding of local cultural and social dynamics [10]

证券之星消息，1月29日城商行板块较上一交易日上涨2.54%，青岛银行领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。城商行板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600919 江苏银行 | | 3.22 Z | 14.99% | -1.71 Z | -7.95% | -1.51 Z | -7.04% | | 002142 | 宁波银行 | 1.51亿 | 11.12% | -241.36万 | -0.18% | -1.49 Z | -10.94% | | 601169 | 北京银行 | 1.07 乙 | 8.92% | -2694.44万 | -2.24% | -8037.98万 | -6.68% | | 601229 | 上海银行 | 4165.56万 | 6.03% | 847.76万 | 1.23% | -5013.31万 | ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Jiangsu Province Urban Football League (referred to as "Su Super") is set to continue the momentum generated by its inaugural season in 2025, with a strong lineup of sponsors and heightened public interest [1][2]. Sponsorship and Financial Aspects - The 2026 season has attracted 24 sponsors, including notable brands such as Jiangsu Bank, Suhao Holding Group, Heineken, Adidas, and Ant Financial, showcasing a robust sponsorship portfolio [1][2]. - The total sponsorship amount for the 2026 season was previously reported to exceed 202 million yuan, although this figure is subject to confirmation due to pending agreements [2]. Audience Engagement and Popularity - The inaugural season of Su Super saw significant audience engagement, with a total attendance of 2.43 million across 85 matches, averaging 28,000 spectators per match, and online viewership reaching 2.2 billion [3]. - The league has generated a cultural phenomenon, with various social media trends and memes emerging from the matches, indicating a strong community connection [3][5]. Socioeconomic Context - The success of Su Super is attributed to the unique competitive spirit among the 13 cities in Jiangsu, which has historical and cultural significance, fostering a sense of rivalry and community pride [4][5]. - The league's rapid growth in sponsorship and popularity is also linked to the local government's effective governance and ability to connect with surrounding industries [4]. Changes and Innovations for the New Season - The 2026 season will introduce a new competition format, including a total of 91 matches, with a shift from single-elimination to two-legged knockout rounds in the playoffs, enhancing the competitive excitement [7]. - The league will also expand its sponsorship model to include small and micro enterprises, allowing them to participate alongside larger brands, which has been positively received by the public [8]. Broader Implications and Future Prospects - The success of Su Super has inspired other regions to replicate its model, although experts suggest that each area must leverage its unique cultural and social dynamics to achieve similar success [9].

银行板块盘中持续走高，青岛银行涨停，消息面上，青岛银行发布2025年度业绩快报，实现归属于母公 司股东净利润51.88亿元，同比增长21.66%。此前已有招商银行、兴业银行、宁波银行等8家上市银行率 先交出2025年度业绩快报，所有银行均实现净利润正增长。 中国银河证券指出，四季度市场风格整体延续上季度，资金对银行板块青睐程度维持在相对低位。但同 时，国有行、股份行持续受关注。近期被动资金流出对银行资金面形成扰动，但在低利率与中长期资金 加速入市的环境下，银行板块高股息、低估值的红利属性仍对险资等长线资金具备持续吸引力，加速估 值定价重构。继续看好银行板块红利价值。 截至2026年1月29日 14:07，中证银行指数(399986)强势上涨1.68%，成分股青岛银行上涨9.94%，渝农商 行上涨3.86%，宁波银行上涨3.70%，齐鲁银行，江苏银行等个股跟涨。银行ETF鹏华(512730)上涨 1.34%，最新价报1.59元。 银行ETF鹏华紧密跟踪中证银行指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投 资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiangsu Yabang Dyeing Co., Ltd., through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangsu Yabang Hual Dye Co., Ltd., has entered into a comprehensive credit agreement with Jiangsu Bank Lianyungang Branch for a maximum credit limit of 9.5 million RMB to support its operational needs [1][2]. Group 1: Guarantee and Counter-Guarantee Overview - Jiangsu Yabang Hual has signed a contract with Lianyungang Geshida Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd. to provide a joint liability guarantee for the aforementioned credit limit of 9.5 million RMB [1][2]. - The company has provided a real estate property of 3,987.95 square meters as collateral for the counter-guarantee [2]. Group 2: Internal Decision-Making Process - The board of directors approved the provision of guarantees for consolidated entities with a total limit not exceeding 1 billion RMB, with specific limits based on the debt-to-asset ratio [2]. - As of the announcement date, the company has utilized 438.5 million RMB of the approved guarantee amount, with 428.5 million RMB for entities with a debt-to-asset ratio below 70% and 10 million RMB for those above [2]. Group 3: Guarantee and Counter-Guarantee Contracts - The entrusted guarantee contract specifies a guarantee fee of 0.8% per annum, totaling 228,000 RMB over three years, payable in advance [4][5]. - The counter-guarantee contract outlines that the company will be liable for all amounts paid by the guarantor, including principal, interest, and other costs [6][7]. Group 4: Necessity and Reasonableness of the Guarantee - The guarantee is deemed necessary to meet the operational liquidity needs of the subsidiary, promoting its business development and improving operational efficiency [10]. - The board believes that the subsidiary's stable financial condition and debt repayment capability make the guarantee low-risk and will not adversely affect the company or its shareholders [11].

行 业 及 产 业 银行 2026 年 01 月 28 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 2026 年银行业选股为先，α优于β 看好 ——上市银行春季调研反馈暨板块思考 前言：年初至今银行板块累计下跌近 7% ，在各板块表现最为靠后，这与我们判断 2026 年基本面稳 步改善存在背离。开年以来我们密集走访各银行，就信贷投放、存款搬家、息差趋势、金市业务、 资产质量等市场关注重点详细交流，结合对现阶段银行板块的思考，本篇报告作以下总结。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 总体看 ...