CNOOC(600938)
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中国海油:公司事件点评报告:Q3油气产量提升,优质多元资产支撑稳健经营

Huaxin Securities· 2024-11-13 09:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 3260.24 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1,166.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.47% [2] - Despite a challenging external environment, the company increased its oil and gas production by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent [3] - The company's cost control measures were effective, with the cost per barrel of oil remaining stable at 28.14 USD, and operating cash flow increased by 14.92% year-on-year to 1827.68 billion yuan [4] - The company made 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating strong growth potential [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 992.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 369.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.98% [2] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1827.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.92% [4] - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1459 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 8.6x, and is projected to grow to 1679 billion yuan by 2026, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [6] Production and Exploration - The company's total oil and gas production in Q3 2024 was 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7%, driven by contributions from fields such as Bozhong 19-6 and Enping 20-4, as well as the Payara project in Guyana [3] - The company made 2 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 5 oil and gas structures in Q3 2024, further enhancing its resource base [5] Cost Management - The company's cost per barrel of oil was 28.14 USD in the first three quarters of 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous year [4] - The company's total period expense ratio was 3.15%, an increase of only 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating effective cost control [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1459 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 1679 billion yuan by 2026, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [6] - The company's ROE is projected to be 20.1% in 2024, maintaining a strong level of profitability [6] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 2.60 yuan in 2023 to 3.53 yuan in 2026, indicating strong earnings growth potential [12]
中国海洋石油:克服油价下跌的不利影响,实现净利增长

海通国际· 2024-11-12 10:28
Investment Rating - Maintains an **OUTPERFORM** rating with a target price of HK$24.19 [1] - The current price is HK$17.30 as of November 11, 2024 [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 326.024 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.26% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 116.659 billion, up 19.47% year-on-year, with diluted EPS of RMB 2.45 [1] - Despite a decline in Brent crude prices, the company maintained strong profitability through cost reduction and increased production [1] - Single-quarter net profit has remained above RMB 30 billion since Q1 2022, driven by growth in oil and gas production and lower production costs [1][6] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 Brent crude average price was $78.71/barrel, down 8.40% year-on-year, but the company still achieved year-on-year net profit growth [1] - Oil and gas equivalent production in Q3 2024 was 179.50 million barrels, up 7.04% year-on-year, with oil liquid production at 139.1 million barrels (up 7.58%) and natural gas production at 235.5 billion cubic feet (up 5.28%) [1] - Forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 are RMB 2.97, 3.00, and 3.08, respectively, with a 2024 BPS of RMB 15.68 [1][7] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company is valued at a 2024E P/B multiple of 1.4x, with a target price of RMB 21.95/HK$24.19 [1][7] - Compared to peers, the company's valuation is higher than PetroChina (0.64x P/B) and Sinopec (0.57x P/B) but lower than ExxonMobil (2.02x P/B) [2] Key Financial Metrics - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 444.187 billion, up 7% year-on-year, with net profit expected to grow 14% to RMB 141.224 billion [4] - Gross profit margin is forecasted to remain strong at 51.1% in 2024E, with ROE at 18.9% [4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 31.5% in 2024E, reflecting improved financial health [4]
中国海油:2024第三季度报点评:油气净产量同比增高,现金流持续健康,高成长性值得期待

Dongxing Securities· 2024-11-12 09:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1][9]. Core Views - CNOOC's oil and gas net production has increased year-on-year, with healthy cash flow and high growth potential expected [2][8]. - The company has signed four new offshore oil exploration contracts in Brazil, expanding its overseas exploration potential [3][6]. - CNOOC's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached approximately 326.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, CNOOC achieved total revenue of 326.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 116.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 19.5% respectively [2][4]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 36.93 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year but down 7.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Production and Sales - CNOOC's oil and gas sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 271.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with net production reaching 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s net production in Q3 2024 was 17.96 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year [3]. Cost Management - The average cost per barrel of oil for the first three quarters of 2024 was 28.14 USD, remaining stable year-on-year, while the average Brent crude oil price was 81.88 USD per barrel, a slight decrease of 0.30% year-on-year [3][4]. - CNOOC's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased significantly due to effective cost management despite fluctuations in international oil prices [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.9% to 182.77 billion yuan, indicating stable and healthy cash flow [4]. - The company maintained a prudent financial policy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 33.24% as of September 2024, down 3.56 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - CNOOC is expected to continue its strategy of increasing reserves and production, with several new projects successfully launched in 2024, including developments in both domestic and overseas markets [8]. - The company is projected to maintain high dividend payouts, with expected average dividend yields of 4.34% and 6.50% for CNOOC and CNOOC Ltd. respectively from 2024 to 2026 [8][9].
中国海油:公司简评报告:2024年前三季度原油实现价格维持较高水平,油气净产量保持增长

Capital Securities· 2024-11-11 13:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 326.024 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 116.659 billion yuan, up 19.47% year-on-year. However, Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Oil prices remained high, with the average Brent crude oil futures price for the first three quarters of 2024 at $81.76, $85.03, and $78.71 per barrel. The company's realized oil price was $79.03 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The exploration sector saw multiple successes, with the company making 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluating 23 oil and gas structures. New projects such as the Suizhong 36-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields are expected to support future growth [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 182.768 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with capital expenditures of 85.107 billion yuan, up 5.24% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 143.098 billion yuan, 153.975 billion yuan, and 162.355 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.01, 3.24, and 3.42 yuan, and PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.609 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -1.3%. For 2024E, revenue is expected to be 460.573 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.6% [3] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 124.090 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -12.6%. For 2024E, net profit is projected at 143.385 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.5% [3] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 is expected to be 209.743 billion yuan, with a steady increase projected for the following years [4] - Capital expenditures for 2023 are estimated at 68.451 billion yuan, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [4] Balance Sheet - Total assets for 2023 are projected at 1,005.598 billion yuan, with a steady increase expected through 2026 [4] - Total liabilities for 2023 are estimated at 337.722 billion yuan, with a slight increase projected for the following years [4]
中国海油:加拿大长湖西北项目投产

Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2024-11-07 14:30
Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully launched the Northwest Long Lake project in Canada, marking a significant milestone in its international operations [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Northwest Long Lake project is located in Alberta, Canada, and includes the construction of a new surface well site and four transportation pipelines [1] - The project utilizes Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) production technology, deploying eight pairs of production wells [1] - The project is expected to reach a peak production capacity of 8,200 barrels of oil per day by 2025 [1] Group 2: Ownership and Operations - CNOOC's wholly-owned subsidiary holds 100% interest in the Northwest Long Lake project and serves as the operator [1]
中国海油:事件点评:加拿大长湖西北项目投产,海外资源开发能力持续提升

EBSCN· 2024-11-07 14:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The production of the Long Lake Northwest project in Canada has commenced, enhancing the company's overseas resource development capabilities [1] - The project is expected to reach a peak production of 8,200 barrels per day, contributing to the company's overall production growth [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas oil and gas production, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Project Development - The Long Lake Northwest project is located in Alberta, Canada, and includes new surface well pads and pipelines, utilizing Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) technology [1] - The company has made advancements in oil sands extraction technology and pipeline construction, which have facilitated rapid production increases [1] Production and Financial Performance - The company's overseas oil and gas production reached 172.9 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 32% of total production [1] - The company aims for production targets of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024 and 780-800 million barrels in 2025, with annual production growth rates of 4.7% and 11.3% respectively [1] Cost Management - The company's main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was $28.14, showing a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year [1] - The company has maintained a competitive cost structure, with operational costs and depreciation per barrel being effectively managed [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 145.7 billion, 158.2 billion, and 163.9 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.07, 3.33, and 3.45 yuan per share [1] - The company is well-positioned to navigate through oil price cycles due to its robust overseas resource development strategy [1]
中国海油:2024年三季报点评:扎实推进增储上产,Q3净利润创历史同期新高

Guohai Securities· 2024-11-02 15:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8][15] Core Views - The company has solidified its cost competitiveness, achieving a record high net profit for the third quarter [4][8] - The company is actively advancing its reserve increase and production, with significant contributions from new oil and gas fields [7][8] - The average realized oil price for the first three quarters of 2024 was $79.03 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1][6] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 99.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.92% [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 56.14%, an increase of 9.35 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Production and Exploration - The company achieved a net production of 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [6][7] - The company made 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters of 2024 [7][8] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-year dividend distribution plan, with a total cash dividend of 31.118 billion yuan, achieving a payout ratio of 40.28%, the highest for the same period in history [8][15] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 424.5 billion, 475.3 billion, and 495.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 147.9 billion, 157.9 billion, and 163.6 billion yuan [15][18] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory due to its leading position in offshore oil and gas production in China [8][15]
中国海油:克服油价下跌的不利影响,实现净利增长

Haitong Securities· 2024-11-01 10:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit growth of 25% year-on-year for the first half of the year, driven by production growth and rising oil prices, leading to stable profitability [2] - The company achieved an operating revenue of 3260.24 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1166.59 billion yuan, corresponding to an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.45 yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 19.47% [5] - The company has maintained a quarterly net profit above 30 billion yuan since the first quarter of 2022, supported by factors such as oil price stability, increased oil and gas production, and reduced production costs [5] - Despite a decline in Brent crude oil prices, the company managed to achieve profit growth by lowering costs and increasing production [5] Financial Summary - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 179.50 million barrels in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 7.04%, with crude oil production at 139.1 million barrels (up 7.58% year-on-year) and natural gas production at 2355 billion cubic feet (up 5.28% year-on-year) [5] - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is 2.97 yuan, 3.00 yuan, and 3.08 yuan respectively, with a book value per share (BPS) of 15.11 yuan in 2024 [6] - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.9-2.0 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 28.71-30.22 yuan, which translates to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.0-10.2 times for 2024 [6] - The company’s operating revenue is projected to be 444.19 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 141.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [7]
中国海油:油气产量稳步提升,归母净利润同比增长

中银证券· 2024-10-31 08:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in oil and gas production, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 19.5% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The average selling price of oil liquids increased by 2.9% year-on-year, contributing to a 13.9% increase in oil and gas sales revenue [2] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with net cash inflow from operating activities increasing by 14.9% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3260.24 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1166.59 billion RMB, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 992.54 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 369.28 billion RMB, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year [5] Production and Cost Analysis - The company's net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, with a primary cost of 28.14 USD per barrel equivalent, remaining stable year-on-year [2][3] - The production from domestic and overseas sources accounted for 68% and 32% of total output, respectively, with domestic production increasing by 6.8% and overseas production by 12.2% [2] Sales and Revenue Breakdown - The product structure for the first three quarters of 2024 showed that oil liquids and natural gas accounted for 78% and 22% of total output, respectively [2] - The sales revenue from oil liquids was 2353.82 billion RMB, up 14.6% year-on-year, while natural gas sales revenue was 360.50 billion RMB, up 9.4% year-on-year [2] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 1827.68 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [2] - Capital expenditures for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 953.4 billion RMB, a 6.6% increase from the previous year [2]
中国海油:2024年三季报点评:业绩符合预期,成长性持续兑现

Huachuang Securities· 2024-10-30 14:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 34.3 CNY, compared to the current price of 27.11 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 326.02 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion CNY, up 19.47% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue for Q3 was 99.25 billion CNY, showing a decrease of 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit for the same period was 36.93 billion CNY, reflecting an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - CNOOC achieved oil and gas sales revenue of approximately 271.43 billion CNY in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The revenue from oil liquids and natural gas was 235.38 billion CNY and 36.06 billion CNY, respectively, with increases of 14.6% and 9.4% year-on-year. The growth was driven by increased sales volume, higher realized prices, and exchange rate fluctuations [2]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 79.03 USD per barrel, while the price for natural gas decreased by 1.8% to 7.78 USD per thousand cubic feet [2]. - The total oil and gas production for the first three quarters was 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year, primarily due to contributions from domestic oil and gas fields and the Payara project in Guyana [2]. Capital Expenditure and Growth - CNOOC's capital expenditure for Q1-Q3 2024 was 95.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. This includes exploration, development, and production expenditures of 13.85 billion CNY, 61.79 billion CNY, and 17.97 billion CNY, respectively [2]. - The company made nine new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters, indicating strong exploration prospects [2]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 182.77 billion CNY, significantly exceeding capital expenditures. The company has sufficient cash flow to support shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% for 2022-2024 [2]. - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 152.7 billion CNY, 163.0 billion CNY, and 170.9 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 8, and 8 [2][3].