Group 1 - The core issue is that despite the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding to 3,800 points, 15 funds under Oriental Asset Management have negative returns since inception, with 12 of them being three-year holding period products, raising questions about the design of such funds [1][3] - Among the 55 three-year holding period products in the market that have recorded losses since inception, Oriental Asset Management accounts for 12, nearly one-fifth of the total, indicating a significant disparity between market recovery and fund performance [1][4] - The performance of these three-year holding period funds ranges from -3.61% to -37.93%, with five products experiencing declines exceeding 25%, highlighting a severe mismatch between the intended design and actual outcomes [3][4] Group 2 - Oriental Asset Management remains a key pillar for its parent company, Oriental Securities, which reported a revenue of 8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with wealth and asset management contributing 2.57 billion yuan, accounting for 32.01% of total revenue [5] - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets under management for Oriental Asset Management reached 233.8 billion yuan, an 8% increase from the end of the previous year, with public funds making up over 70% of this figure [5] - The newly launched Oriental Core Value Mixed Fund raised 1.99 billion yuan, but its performance has been disappointing, with returns of only 8.2%, lagging behind its benchmark and major competitors [5][8] Group 3 - The collective predicament of Oriental Asset Management's three-year holding period products reveals a misalignment between the original intent of the system and its actual effectiveness, leading to deep losses and erosion of investor trust [8] - The public fund scale of Oriental Asset Management is relatively small, ranking 41st in the industry with 178.9 billion yuan, compared to larger competitors like Huatai PineBridge, which has surpassed 1 trillion yuan in management scale [8]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Transformation of Macroeconomic Research under New Circumstances" highlighted the accelerating transformation of China's economy towards high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic research in guiding investment strategies and understanding market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Transformation and Opportunities - China is at a critical juncture with the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the preparation for the 15th, focusing on new development patterns such as domestic demand, high-level openness, and green development, which present both opportunities and challenges [3][4]. - The capital market is transitioning from a "financing market" to an "investment market," enhancing its attractiveness to both domestic and foreign investors [3][4]. - The three narratives of asset revaluation in China include the global reassessment of China's innovation capabilities, signs of stabilization in housing prices in first-tier cities, and the gradual effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in stabilizing the real economy [4][5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Research and Strategic Insights - The current macroeconomic research paradigm must adapt to the significant changes in the international landscape, requiring a more comprehensive set of indicators that reflect China's unique economic logic and resilience [5][6]. - Key issues affecting the Chinese economy include real estate dynamics, tariff impacts, and consumption stimulus policies, which need to be addressed with a long-term perspective [6][7]. - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to its large scale and heterogeneity, allowing it to maintain stability and recover quickly from external shocks [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The recent stock market rally is driven by improved expectations of national governance and technological advancements, rather than direct macroeconomic data [8][9]. - The U.S. economic growth forecast is declining, which may lead to a reallocation of global capital towards emerging markets, including China, potentially benefiting its market performance [9].

Group 1 - The company, Dongfang Securities, has decided to optimize its branch network by closing the Shanghai Minhang District Suhong Road Securities Office [1][2] - Customers from the Shanghai Minhang District Suhong Road Securities Office will be transferred to the Shanghai Changning District Changning Road Securities Office after the market closes on September 19, 2025 [1][5] - Customers' account details, trading methods, and services will remain unchanged during the transfer process [1][5] Group 2 - Customers who do not wish to transfer to the new branch must complete account closure procedures by September 12, 2025 [1][5] - The Shanghai Minhang District Suhong Road Securities Office will cease to accept new clients from the date of the announcement until its closure [2][5] - Contact information for both the closing and receiving branches has been provided for customer inquiries [2][5]

一、2025年9月19日闭市后，东方证券上海闵行区苏虹路证券营业部客户将整体迁移至东方证券上海长 宁区长宁路证券营业部。整体平移后，您的资金账号、交易密码和资金密码、原交易方式、交易软件及 已有的各项服务均保持不变，您的证券交易和资金划转不受影响。 二、如果您不同意成为转入分支机构的客户，请自本公告公布之日起至2025年9月12日止，由您本人携 带有效身份证明文件，前往东方证券任意分支机构现场办理销户手续或通过东方赢家app线上办理（仅 支持个人普通账户）。逾期未办理销户手续，我公司将视同您同意整体迁移方案，并成为转入分支机构 的客户。 尊敬的投资者： 东方证券股份有限公司（以下简称：东方证券）为优化分支机构网点布局，经公司研究决定撤销东方证 券上海闵行区苏虹路证券营业部。我公司将按照《中华人民共和国证券法》和《关于取消或调整证券公 司部分行政审批项目等事项的公告》的相关要求，妥善处理客户资产，结清证券业务并终止经营活动， 办理工商注销等相关手续，并向撤销分支机构所在地中国证监会派出机构备案。为保障您的证券交易、 资金划转的正常进行，现将相关事项公告如下： 三、自本公告公布之日起，东方证券上海闵行区苏虹路证券 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Securities Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the securities industry in the first half of 2025, focusing on listed securities firms in China, excluding financial holding companies and Dongfang Caifu [1][2]. Key Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 42 listed securities firms achieved total operating revenue of 251.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 104 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 65% [2]. - In Q2 2025, net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase and a 19% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][4]. Core Business Drivers - The core drivers of performance growth are the brokerage and investment businesses, with brokerage net income increasing by 44% year-on-year to 63.5 billion yuan, and investment business net income rising by 52% [5][6]. - The investment banking sector also showed signs of recovery, with net income growing by 18% year-on-year to 15.5 billion yuan [5]. Profitability and Leverage - The average annualized Return on Equity (ROE) for listed securities firms is approximately 7%, the highest in recent years, with a year-on-year increase of 2.45 percentage points [6]. - The average leverage ratio slightly decreased to 3.34 times, down by 0.01 times year-on-year [6]. - Overall expenses increased by 18% to 125.7 billion yuan, but the expense-to-revenue ratio decreased by 5 percentage points, indicating improved cost control [6]. Market Concentration and Competition - Market concentration has increased, with the top three firms accounting for 28% of operating revenue and 33% of net profit, while the top five firms account for 39% and 48%, respectively [7]. - This indicates a strengthening advantage for leading firms, while smaller firms exhibit greater performance volatility [7]. Brokerage Business Performance - The brokerage business benefited from increased market trading activity, with the top three firms being CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities [8]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds increased by 64% year-on-year, with Q2 showing a 61% increase [8]. Investment Banking Business Performance - The investment banking sector's net income was 15.5 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [9]. - Leading firms in this sector include CITIC Securities, CICC, and Guotai Junan, with significant growth in IPOs and refinancing activities, where equity transaction volume surged by 403% [9]. Asset Management Business Performance - The asset management business reported a slight decline in net income by 3% to 21.2 billion yuan [13]. - The top three firms in terms of net income were CITIC, GF, and Guotai Junan, with growth rates varying significantly among firms [13]. Public Fund Performance - Public funds performed well, with non-monetary public fund assets reaching 20.2 trillion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase [14]. - Equity public fund assets grew by 27% to 8.4 trillion yuan, although management fee rates are expected to decline due to new regulations [14]. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The overall performance of listed securities firms is expected to maintain a high growth rate, projected at around 30% for the year [17]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on firms with significant mismatches between performance and valuation, those with high proportions of margin financing and investment income, and firms with high H-share premiums [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - Various types of funds are entering the market, with insurance increasing stock allocation and public fund issuance/net subscriptions showing signs of recovery. The trend of residents "moving deposits" may have just begun [1][14] - The A-share liquidity index has shown a rapid increase, correlating highly with the median rise of brokerage stocks. Historical data indicates that significant increases in the liquidity index often precede or coincide with strong performance in brokerage stocks [2][41] - The brokerage industry is expected to achieve a profit growth rate of approximately 48% in the first half of 2025, with specific recommendations for undervalued and high ROE brokerage firms [3][48] Summary by Sections Current Fund Inflows - Since September 24, 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged various funds to enter the market, particularly focusing on long-term capital [14][15] - Insurance funds have shown stable premium growth, with stock allocation increasing to 8.5% as of Q2 2025, up 1.7 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21][1] - Public funds are experiencing a recovery in both issuance and net subscriptions, with a notable increase in active equity fund subscriptions [23][1] - A new cycle of residents "moving deposits" has begun, with the total market capitalization to resident deposits ratio at a low of 0.59, indicating potential for further inflows [26][1] Market Liquidity and Brokerage Stocks - The average daily trading volume and margin financing balance have reached historically high levels, indicating improved market liquidity [34][41] - The maximum turnover rate of the Wind All A index has historically aligned with peaks in brokerage stock performance, suggesting a potential indicator for market tops [35][41] - The A-share liquidity index has shown significant increases during previous bullish phases, with a 74% rise in brokerage stocks since the market transition on July 10, 2024 [2][41] Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is projected to see a profit growth of around 48% in 2025, with specific recommendations for leading brokerage firms that are undervalued and have high ROE [3][48] - The report suggests focusing on firms like Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others that are expected to benefit from market conditions and potential mergers [3][48] - The report highlights a calendar effect where brokerage stocks typically exhibit excess returns from July to November, influenced by policy discussions and financial performance reviews [52][41]

Core Viewpoint - The sell-side research business in China's securities industry is considered the "crown jewel," reflecting a brokerage's professional capability and comprehensive influence, despite not generating significant profits [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sell-Side Research Capability Measurement - The measurement of sell-side research capabilities among brokerages is primarily based on the total amount of commission allocated by public funds and their rankings. The recent commission ranking, following the public fund commission reform, highlights the strengths and weaknesses of research and service capabilities [3][4]. Top Tier: Expected Reshuffling and Surprises - The merger of two traditional institutions, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, into Guotai Haitong Securities has created a reshuffling opportunity in the top tier of sell-side research. However, the merged entity did not surpass CITIC Securities, which remains the leader with a significant gap in commission income [4][5]. Commission Rankings - CITIC Securities leads with a total commission of 319 million yuan, holding a market share of 7.13%. Guotai Haitong Securities follows with 268 million yuan, while GF Securities ranks third with 250 million yuan [5][6][8]. Competitive Landscape - The competition for the second and third positions in the sell-side research market is expected to be intense, particularly between Guotai Haitong and GF Securities, given their close commission figures [7]. First Tier: Strong Contenders - The top ten brokerages are characterized by complete systems, strong teams, and significant influence. The rankings are subject to change based on performance in the latter half of the year [9][10]. Rising Institutions - Zhejiang Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, and CICC have shown significant improvements in their rankings without the benefit of mergers, indicating genuine growth in their research capabilities [11][12]. Second Tier: The "Billion Club" - The second tier of brokerages, ranked 11th to 20th, is highly competitive, with many firms vying for the "billion club" threshold. The top three in this tier are Tianfeng Securities,招商证券, and东吴证券, all closely matched in commission income [14][15]. Notable Exceptions - Guolian Minsheng Securities, which also underwent a merger, is uniquely positioned in the rankings due to its late merger timing, potentially affecting its future standings [16]. Bottom Tier: Rare Positive Growth - Among the bottom ten brokerages, there are rare examples of positive growth, particularly华源证券 and华福证券, which have seen significant increases in their commission income due to strategic hires and team expansions [17][19].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 降息前后美国经济仍疲弱 ——海外札记 20250903 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 04 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 降息按下快进键：——海外札记 20250825 | 2025-08-27 | | --- | --- | | 美国通胀风险未能阻碍市场上行：——海 | 2025-08-19 | | 外札记 20250818 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in China has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, raising questions about the sustainability of this momentum in the second half and the potential for mid-term dividend plans [1][2][4]. Group 1: Performance and Growth - Several securities firms reported strong net profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increases in brokerage, securities investment, and investment banking revenues [2]. - The A-share market's positive performance in the first half has contributed to the revenue growth of securities firms, leading to heightened investor interest in whether this growth can be maintained in the second half [2][3]. Group 2: Mid-term Dividend Plans - CITIC Securities announced a mid-term profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 2.90 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.298 billion yuan, marking an increase from the previous year's 3.557 billion yuan [4]. - Northeast Securities is also planning to implement a proactive and sustainable profit distribution policy, considering various factors such as company development and market trends [4]. Group 3: Differentiated Competitive Advantages - Smaller and specialized securities firms are exploring differentiated development paths to enhance their competitive advantages [5]. - Southwest Securities attributed its profit growth to the active A-share market and its strategic reforms aimed at building unique competitive strengths [6]. - Northeast Securities aims to establish itself as a comprehensive securities firm focused on small and innovative enterprises, enhancing its competitive edge in wealth management and investment banking [6].

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced a pullback for two consecutive days, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 1% and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.95% on September 3, indicating mixed market sentiment [1][4] - The leading securities ETF (560090) has seen a decline of 3.07% but recorded a premium of 1.03% at the end of the trading day, suggesting strong buying interest despite the overall market weakness [1][4] - Over the past three days, there has been a net inflow of over 160 million yuan into the securities ETF, indicating continued investor interest in the sector [1][4] Group 2 - The majority of the index components for the leading securities ETF have experienced declines, with notable drops in stocks such as Dongfang Caifu (down over 4%) and CITIC Securities (down over 3%) [3] - The securities industry has shown resilience, with a reported revenue of 251.036 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.47%, and a net profit of 112.28 billion yuan, up 40.37% [4][6] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests that the securities industry may further demonstrate performance elasticity, supported by high trading volumes and normalized equity financing [6]