中期不确定性较大，印尼煤炭产量通常高于年初计划 （1）印尼上一次申报RKAB是在2022年末至2023年初，但紧随其后，印尼允许企业在2023年7月31日之 前提交一次RKAB变更；（2）2023年下半年，RKAB有效期从一年变为三年，并在2025年下半年变回 一年，当前正处于2026年RKAB的获批期，部分观点认为后续仍有较大可能会出现变化；（3）2016年 以来，印尼煤炭实际产量多数年份显著高于RKAB配额或政府目标。 长期对煤价抬升有利，印尼政府对提煤价有较强诉求 东方证券主要观点如下： 事件 印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口。据媒体报道，印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划， 该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼上月向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平降低40%至70%，作 为该国提振煤价计划的一部分。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告称可能引发裁员和矿山关闭。 预计对一季度煤价及预期产生明显提振 （1）对上游，由于印尼政府调低了产量配额，矿商在无法判断未来可出口配额的情况下，只能自发采 取先暂停现货合约的方式应对的防御性策略，等待政策确定后再恢复现货报价；（2）对中下游，在此 前对煤价的一致预期不 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 开启"投资于人"新一环——房地产新动 向的信号意义 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 产业转型过程中，大城市劳动密集型行业占比减少，技术密集型行业占比增加，可 能会制约劳动者的增加以及地产需求的扩大。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 刘姜枫 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electronic industry panel manufacturers are continuing their production control strategies, leading to price increases for large-sized panels, which are expected to persist due to demand from events like the World Cup [1][2]. Group 1: Panel Price Trends - Large-sized panel prices are expected to continue rising as manufacturers maintain production control, with demand remaining stable [2]. - AVC data indicates that all sizes of TV panels saw price increases in late January, with some monitor panels also experiencing price hikes [1][2]. - The tight supply-demand situation for TV panels is extending to monitor panels, with expectations of price increases in February [2]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - The large-scale capital expenditure cycle in the panel industry is nearing its end, with leading manufacturers expected to significantly reduce future spending [3]. - According to BOE's announcement, 2025 will be the peak year for capital expenditure, with a significant decline anticipated starting in 2027 [3]. - TCL Technology is focusing on investments aligned with the accelerated penetration of OLED in the mid-size market, with no major new production line investments planned beyond the T8 line [3]. Group 3: Mobile OLED Panel Market - Mobile OLED panel prices are under short-term pressure, but the impact is expected to be manageable [4]. - The penetration rate of mobile OLED panels is anticipated to continue increasing, which may offset the decline in overall smartphone shipments [4]. - Omdia forecasts that global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments will decrease slightly to 810 million units in 2026, a minor decline from 817 million in 2025 [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The favorable supply-demand relationship and the expected continuation of price increases for large-sized panels suggest potential investment opportunities in panel manufacturers such as TCL Technology, BOE A, and others [5]. - Related material manufacturers and display driver chip manufacturers are also highlighted as potential investment targets [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.66% and the ChiNext Index down 1.02% [1] - The banking sector showed strong performance, with Qilu Bank rising over 2%, while sectors such as precious metals, photovoltaic equipment, and storage chips experienced significant declines [1] Institutional Insights - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "spring market" may be more sustained this year, with potential trends including a stronger foundation for the spring rally, enhanced consumer and travel market activity, and a possible range-bound bond market [1] - The firm also notes that traditional patterns such as "bonds strong, stocks weak" before the holiday may be weakened this year, with expectations for a more balanced support for both stocks and bonds [1] - The anticipated market style post-holiday may involve a combination of growth and dividend strategies rather than a complete switch [1] Sector Analysis - Shangyin Fund indicates that recent fluctuations in the A-share market are primarily due to trading dynamics rather than fundamental changes, suggesting that the current adjustment may present attractive buying opportunities [2] - Dongfang Securities highlights that the rebound following the recent decline has been significant, indicating a stronger expectation for market stability moving forward, with a focus on technology sectors as potential areas of interest [3]

2026年02月03日，冰轮环境披露接待调研公告，公司于02月03日接待睿远基金、东方证券自营、财通证 券、银河证券、申万证券等9家机构调研。 调研情况显示，冰轮环境致力于在能源和动力领域提供先进的系统解决方案和全生命周期服务，主要产 品形式为压缩机和换热装置，实施温控、增压等冷热能管理功能，覆盖-271℃-200℃温度区间。具体产 品包括螺杆式压缩机、离心式压缩机、吸收式制冷机、活塞式压缩机、涡旋式压缩机、工业热泵、储能 蓄能装置、真空冻干设备、速冻装置、换热设备、船用制冷设备、多联机等，广泛应用于商业制冷系 统、工业冷冻系统、商用舒适空调、工业特种空调等多个领域。 公司在数据中心液冷系统应用方面，旗下顿汉布什公司和冰轮换热技术公司为数据中心乃至液冷系统提 供一次侧冷源装备和热交换装置等冷却装备。顿汉布什公司已有131年历史，其"变频离心式冷水机 组"和"集成自然冷却功能的风冷螺杆冷水机组"两项产品入选工信部《国家绿色数据中心先进适用技术 产品目录》，已成功服务国家超级计算广州中心、中国移动贵州大数据中心等诸多项目。在核电领域， 公司聚焦核岛冷却、核能供热等核心场景，服务了红沿河、宁德、阳江等多个核电站，旗 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，谷歌DeepMind开放世界模型Genie3的实验性研究原 型"Project Genie"，允许用户创建、编辑并探索虚拟世界。当前无需过度担忧海外Genie3等通用世界模 型，游戏商用潜力极低，即使是未来对于时长支持增长，Genie3判断可能仅能支持有限的剧情向游戏， 而无法很好支持无限时长延申的大型多人在线游戏。AI游戏编辑器开始兑现增长，拥有大DAU平台的 企业，尤其是能与自研AI引擎相结合的企业，有望获得未来AIGC游戏平台的入场券。 东方证券主要观点如下： 事项：北京时间2026年1月30日凌晨，谷歌DeepMind开放了世界模型Genie3的实验性研究原型"Project Genie"，允许用户创建、编辑并探索虚拟世界。同时在1月30日晚，心动公司、TapTap平台创始人黄一 孟在各大平台同步开启直播，正式官宣一款新产品"Taptap制造"。 国内AI游戏编辑器的技术路径已具备落地商用条件 以心动、腾讯为代表的国内厂商，其技术实现路径核心在于拆解游戏生产环节、AI模拟程序员的部分 生产工作，通过将AI输出的资产封装至通用硬编物理引擎，实现AI3D引擎能力与传 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002945 | 华林证券 | 7.47 | 517亿 | 24.85 | | 601555 | 东吴证券 | 3.26 | 473亿 | 4.97 | | 600621 | 华鑫股份 | 2.65 | 181亿 | 12.01 | | 601211 | 国泰海通 | 2.51 | 3524 Z | -2.73 | | 600369 | 西南址券 | 2.00 | 304亿 | 2.23 | | 601688 | 华泰证券 | 1.88 | 2002亿 | -5.98 | | 002736 | 国信证券 | 1.72 | 1275亿 | -5.11 | | 601881 | 中国银河 | 1.65 | 1680亿 | -2.29 | | 601066 | 中信建投 | 1.62 | 1893亿 | -8.31 | | 601108 | 财通证券 | 1.58 | 419亿 | 3.44 | | 601377 | 兴业证券 | 1.49 | 590亿 | -7.95 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing short-term performance pressure but is expected to drive innovation through self-research and transformation [1] Financial Performance - The company recently released a performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of 66 million to 96 million yuan, and a non-recurring net loss of 79 million to 110 million yuan [1] - The performance pressure is primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement and the MAH system on the company's generic drug business [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to optimize its business structure and return to a growth trajectory through active innovation [1] - A recent collaboration with Zhongshen Innovation on the self-researched oncology drug BIOS-0629 will provide the company with a milestone payment of 300 million yuan and a 10% share of the sales revenue [1] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term performance challenges, the company's long-term development potential is considered significant [1] - The company’s insights into the industry and research capabilities are expected to lead to a second growth curve through innovative drug development and licensing [1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2026 are projected to be -0.63 yuan and 0.37 yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.49 yuan and 2.80 yuan [1] - The EPS for 2027 is forecasted to be 0.61 yuan [1] Valuation - A DCF valuation method is employed, with a target price set at 53.84 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，国内拟将铜精矿纳入国家战略储备体系，以应对75%高进口 依存度，增强产业链安全。全球铜矿品位下降及资本开支不足加剧供给紧张，而新能源等领域需求持续 增长，支撑铜价中期上行。中国严控铜冶炼新增产能，"反内卷"政策有望推动铜价与冶炼费同步上升， 利好相关企业利润修复。 东方证券主要观点如下： 铜冶炼"反内卷"政策不变，继续看好铜价与铜冶炼费齐升的中期趋势 除对铜资源储备体系建设的完善外，发布会上秘书长段绍甫表示已叫停200多万吨铜冶炼项目，未来将 继续配合国家有关部门严控新增矿铜冶炼项目，副会长陈学森也表示，当前铜"反内卷"政策正在出台， 效果预计在后续两三年内逐步体现。该行认为，在国内铜冶炼产能严控新增以及"反内卷"政策落地见效 的预期下，铜冶炼费在中期有望迎来向上修复。该行继续看好中期铜价与铜冶炼费齐升，关注铜矿企业 以及铜冶炼企业的利润修复空间和投资机会。 投资建议：铜矿端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业，其他标的： 洛阳钼业、金诚信。铜冶炼端：建议关注米拉多铜矿放量提升铜精矿自给率、现货冶炼费改善预期下利 润弹性更为受益的铜陵有色。其他 ...

Core Insights - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights the significant commercial value of extrahepatic delivery technology, driven by MNCs' increasing interest and the rapid development of domestic companies in multi-target drugs and extrahepatic delivery platforms [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Frequent transactions in small nucleic acids indicate rising global recognition of domestic drugs, exemplified by recent strategic collaborations involving Shengyin Biotech and major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and Roche, which include upfront payments and milestone payments totaling up to $12 billion and $15 billion respectively [1] - MNCs are shifting focus from liver-targeted delivery technologies to extrahepatic delivery systems, targeting organs such as fat, muscle, central nervous system, heart, and kidneys, which could address significant unmet clinical needs [2] Group 2: Domestic Innovation - Domestic companies have accumulated substantial experience in chemical modifications and liver-targeted delivery technologies for small nucleic acids, covering high-value areas such as hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hepatitis B, and weight loss [3] - The proactive development of extrahepatic delivery platforms and multi-target small nucleic acid drug platforms positions domestic firms at the forefront globally, attracting MNCs' interest [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Potential investment targets include companies such as Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, Frontier Biotech, Fuyuan Pharmaceutical, Chengdu Xian Dao, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the growing market for small nucleic acid drugs [4]