公司报告 | 半年报点评 业绩大幅增长，新疆基地有望再造成长曲线 2024 年上半年公司实现归母净利润 33.05 亿，同比+46.44% 2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入 168.97 亿元，同比+29.09%；实现归母净 利润 33.05 亿，同比+46.44%；扣非归母净利润 35.16 亿元，同比+44.37%。 其中 Q2 实现归母净利润 18.84 亿元，同比+75.8%，环比+32.6%。 量价齐升，烯烃盈利有望持续高位 销量方面：2024 年上半年，公司聚烯烃销量大幅提升，其中聚乙烯销量 57.50 万吨，同比增长 68.4%，聚丙烯销量 57.22 万吨，同比增长 79.2%。 新增 EVA 销量 7.16 万吨；焦炭销量 354.3 万吨，同比增长 3.7%。 煤价下跌，烯烃价差走阔：2024 年上半年，内蒙古东胜坑口煤价 663 元/ 吨，同比-16%；PE 受二季度乙烯检修偏多的影响，叠加国内烯烃需求复苏， 均价+3%，PP 均价-2%；烯烃价差走阔，根据我们的测算，上半年烯烃模拟 价差 2770 元/吨，同比+33%。三季度受美国乙烯大范围检修的影响，库存 或处于低位，对国内烯烃形 ...

基础化工/化学原料 公 司 研 究 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 2024 年 08 月 13 日 烯烃产能释放叠加煤价回落，公司业绩稳步提升 ——2024 年中报点评报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/13 | | 当前股价(元) | 15.35 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.94/12.84 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,125.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,125.67 | | 总股本(亿股) | 73.33 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 73.33 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 16.54 | 股价走势图 宝丰能源 沪深300 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 数据来源：聚源 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 相关研究报告 《宁东三期烯烃贡献增量，煤价回调 成本优势提升—2024 一季报点评报 告》-2024.4.26 《成本优势致盈利保持韧性，内蒙烯 烃项目贡献 ...

C o m p a n y U p d a t e 2024 年 08 月 13 日 费倩然 H70507@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 20 公司基本资讯 | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------------| | 产业别 | 化工 | | A 股价(2024/8/12) | 15.35 | | 上证指数(2024/8/12) | 2858.20 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 17.63/12.62 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 7333.36 | | A 股数(百万) | 7333.36 | | A 市值(亿元) | 1125.67 | | 主要股东 | 宁夏宝丰集团 | | | 有限公司 | | | (35.65%) | | 每股净值(元) | 5.46 | | 股价/账面净值 | 2.81 | | | 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | | 近期评等 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|----------|-------| | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | 2024.05.30 ...

C o m p a n y U p d a t e 2024 年 08 月 13 日 费倩然 H70507@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 20 公司基本资讯 | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------------| | 产业别 | 化工 | | A 股价(2024/8/12) | 15.35 | | 上证指数(2024/8/12) | 2858.20 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 17.63/12.62 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 7333.36 | | A 股数(百万) | 7333.36 | | A 市值(亿元) | 1125.67 | | 主要股东 | 宁夏宝丰集团 | | | 有限公司 | | | (35.65%) | | 每股净值(元) | 5.46 | | 股价/账面净值 | 2.81 | | | 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | | 近期评等 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|----------|-------| | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | 2024.05.30 ...

基础化工 2024 年 08 月 13 日 宝丰能源 (600989) —— Q2 业绩符合预期，新疆布局 400 万吨煤制烯烃再 次打开成长空间 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持）投资要点： ⚫ 公司公告：公司发布 2024 年中报，2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入 168.97 亿元（YoY+29.09%）， 归母净利润 33.05 亿元（YoY+46.44%），扣非归母净利润 35.16 亿元（YoY+44.37%）；其中 2024Q2 实现营业收入 86.70 亿元（YoY+36.39%，QoQ+5.39%），归母净利润 18.84 亿元（YoY+75.80%， QoQ+32.57%），扣非归母净利润 20.34 亿元（YoY+76.03%，QoQ+37.27%），业绩符合预期。 ⚫ 聚烯烃价格修复+成本煤炭下行导致聚烯烃价差快速扩大，Q2 业绩同环比高增。2024 年上半年，公 司核心产品聚乙烯、聚丙烯、焦炭销量分别为 57.50、57.22、354.40 万吨，分别同比+23.36、+25.29、 +12.80 万吨，聚乙烯、聚丙烯、焦炭均价分别为 7108、6668、1458 元/吨， ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月13日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 优于大市 二季度盈利同环比提升，聚烯烃量价齐升 公司 2024 年二季度营收及净利同环比提升。公司 2024 年二季度营收 86.7 亿元（同比+36%，环比+5%），归母净利润 18.8 亿元（同比+76%，环比 +33%），扣非归母净利润 20.3 亿元（同比+76%，环比+37%）。盈利提 升主要是由于产能扩张后聚烯烃产销量提升，且烯烃价格受油价支撑及 二季度供给有所收缩带来的价格提升。2024 年二季度销售毛利率/净利 率为 38%/22%，期间费用率 9%，同环比提升。 公司主营产品聚烯烃产销量及价格同比提升。宁东三期 100 万吨烯烃项目 贡献产能增量，2024 年二季度公司聚烯烃产销量同比提升，同时，聚烯 烃价格同环比提升。一季度聚烯烃价格偏强，主要是由于原油价格上涨 传导；二季度聚烯烃价格延续上涨趋势，除成本支撑因素之外，还受到 国内聚烯烃装置检修集中，产品供应偏紧的影响。 焦炭需求继续承压。2024 年二季度公司焦炭产销量同比略有下降而环比 有所提升。焦炭产销量同比下行，价格环比下跌，主要是由于下游需求 承压，房地产新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.894 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.304 billion RMB, up 46.44% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 8.670 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, and a net profit of 1.884 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 75.80% year-on-year [1]. - The company is operating at high capacity, maintaining low-cost advantages, with stable production levels in its polyethylene products and slight improvements in the profitability of its coke segment [2]. - The second quarter saw a decrease in coal prices and an increase in olefin prices, leading to a significant widening of product price differentials, with an overall gross margin of approximately 38.23%, up from 28.72% in Q1 [3]. - The company is progressing with its new projects, including a 3 million-ton olefin project in Inner Mongolia, which is set to begin trial production in October, and a 4 million-ton olefin project in Xinjiang, which is currently undergoing environmental assessments [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company disclosed a revenue of 16.894 billion RMB for H1 2024, a 29.09% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.304 billion RMB, up 46.44% year-on-year [1]. Operational Analysis - The company maintained high operational efficiency in Q2, with stable production levels and low-cost advantages, particularly in its polyethylene and coke segments [2]. Price Dynamics - The second quarter experienced a decrease in coal prices and an increase in olefin prices, resulting in improved profitability and a gross margin increase to 38.23% [3]. Future Outlook - The company has several ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production capacity and profitability, including significant olefin projects in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 38.503 billion, 61.471 billion, and 61.850 billion RMB, with net profits of 7.927 billion, 14.036 billion, and 15.415 billion RMB respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [1] Core Views - The significant growth in revenue and profit for Baofeng Energy in the first half of 2024 is primarily attributed to the increase in both volume and price of polyolefins, driven by the commissioning of the Ningdong Phase III coal-to-olefins project [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth potential due to the upcoming commissioning of the Inner Mongolia Phase I project, which will support future performance [6] - Baofeng Energy is enhancing its technological advantages and accelerating the development of new technologies, with substantial investments in R&D [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Baofeng Energy achieved operating revenue of 16.897 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.305 billion yuan, up 46.44% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2024 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 8.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.8% [4] Production and Pricing - The production of polyolefins reached 1.2227 million tons in the first half of 2024, marking an 87% increase year-on-year [5] - The average price of polyethylene products, such as LLDPE film grade, was 8,417 yuan per ton in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 2.6% increase year-on-year [5] Future Growth Drivers - The Ningdong Phase III project, which utilizes advanced DMTO technology, is expected to significantly enhance the company's production capacity, adding 1.5 million tons of methanol and 1 million tons of olefins annually [6] - The project is anticipated to commence production of polyolefin products by October 2024, contributing to long-term revenue growth [6] R&D and Technological Advancements - Baofeng Energy invested 740 million yuan in R&D in the first half of 2024, with a focus on maintaining leadership in coal-to-olefins technology and developing new chemical raw materials [7] - The company has successfully developed four new varieties of coke and has positive market feedback on its new product formulations [7] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for Baofeng Energy is projected to be 1.14 yuan in 2024, 1.84 yuan in 2025, and 2.03 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.4, 8.3, and 7.5 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 16.897 billion yuan (up 29.09% YoY) and net profit at 3.305 billion yuan (up 44.64% YoY) [1] - The second quarter performance showed a revenue of 8.670 billion yuan (up 36.39% YoY, up 5.39% QoQ) and a net profit of 1.884 billion yuan (up 75.80% YoY, up 32.57% QoQ) [1] - The increase in performance is attributed to the launch of new projects and price recovery in olefin products, with polyethylene and polypropylene revenues increasing by 69% and 75% respectively [1] - The company is expected to maintain stable product price margins due to limited downside in product prices and a decline in raw material costs [1] - The upcoming launch of the Inner Mongolia project is anticipated to significantly boost production capacity, with potential revenue doubling based on current sales prices [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 33.60% and a net margin of 19.56% in the first half of 2024, with Q2 margins improving to 38.23% and 21.73% respectively [1] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 8.162 billion, 14.081 billion, and 15.961 billion yuan, with growth rates of 44.45%, 72.51%, and 13.35% respectively [1][6] Market Outlook - The company’s main products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke, have shown stable pricing trends, with minor fluctuations observed since June [1] - The company is strategically positioned with projects in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, which are expected to enhance long-term growth and reduce production costs [1] Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 14, 8, and 7 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as the company expands its production capacity [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in its 2024 H1 performance, with operating revenue reaching 16.897 billion yuan, a 29.09% increase, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 3.305 billion yuan, up 46.44% [1]. - The company is set to benefit from the upcoming production of its Inner Mongolia project, which is expected to enhance its growth potential [2]. - The report highlights the recovery in profitability for the polyethylene and polypropylene segments due to a decrease in coal prices, which has improved the margins for coal-to-olefins production [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024 H1, the company achieved revenue of 16.897 billion yuan, a 29.09% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.305 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.44% growth [1]. - The second quarter alone saw revenue of 8.670 billion yuan, a 36.39% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.884 billion yuan, up 75.80% year-on-year [1]. - The average profit for coal-to-polypropylene was reported at 1,073 yuan per ton, showing a clear advantage over other production routes [2]. Segment Analysis - **Olefins Segment**: The report indicates stable growth in polyethylene and polypropylene demand, with respective consumption increases of 3.0% and 3.5% year-on-year. The company’s revenue from polyethylene and polypropylene reached 4.087 billion yuan and 3.815 billion yuan, marking increases of 69.23% and 75.48% year-on-year [2]. - **Coking Segment**: The coking segment faced challenges due to weak downstream demand, resulting in a revenue decline of 3.40% year-on-year, with an average price of 1,458.23 yuan per ton, down 6.89% [2]. - **New Projects**: The Inner Mongolia project is progressing well, with the first production unit expected to start trial production in October 2024. Additionally, the Xinjiang coal-to-olefins project is set to expand the company's growth opportunities [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits for the company to be 8.044 billion yuan, 12.475 billion yuan, and 13.287 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.10 yuan, 1.70 yuan, and 1.81 yuan [2][3].