每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵司在之前透露过公司已具备茂金属聚乙烯等产品的 生产能力，请问这些产品在今年有实际生产和销售吗？ （记者 王晓波） 宝丰能源（600989.SH）12月19日在投资者互动平台表示，公司具备茂金属聚乙烯、钛系聚乙烯和铬系 聚乙烯等产品的生产能力。近年来，公司烯烃二厂生产的牌号HD55110的聚乙烯是一款明确标注为"钛 系双峰高密度聚乙烯"（Bimodal HDPE）的产品，采用雪佛龙菲利普斯（Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC，简称CPCHEM）工艺生产，具有特殊的分子量分布结构。融合了高分子量部分的优异 物理性能和低分子量部分的良好加工性能。该产品生产销售情况一直良好。 ...

化工行业：行业有望底部回暖，供需格局 或迎积极变化 2025 年 12 月 18 日 看好/维持 化工 行业报告 ——化工行业 2026 年策略报告 | | | 投资摘要 我国化工行业景气有望底部回暖，行业供需格局预期改善。2025 年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低景 气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极变化。具体来说，供给 端化工行业投资增速持续放缓，反内卷政策引导行业自律，叠加海外老旧化工品产能退出力度加大，供给端压力有所减轻； 需求端传统需求弱复苏，新兴产业有望带来增量；库存端去库存周期结束，已现小幅补库迹象。综合来看，在行业供需格局 预期改善的背景下，我国化工行业景气有望边际改善。 展望 2026 年，随着化工品供需格局改善，以及原油、煤炭等大宗原材料价格回落、行业成本压力有所缓解，我们认为处于 中游的化工行业景气度有望改善，并迎来布局良机。我们建议重点关注以下三大投资方向： （1）供需格局有望改善、行业景气有望回升的子行业。结合前述我们对于国内化工供给和需求格局的分析，我们认为，从 供给端来看，受到行业竞争加剧、市场价格下行、投资回 ...

Group 1 - The report forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate around $60-65 per barrel in 2026, with potential short-term increases due to geopolitical factors [3][6][7] - The midstream and downstream sectors are expected to improve, driven by a global economic resonance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply-side contractions due to anti-involution policies [3][7] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in cyclical growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors [3][8] Group 2 - In 2025, oil prices are projected to oscillate between $60-70 per barrel, with a slight recovery in midstream and downstream sectors [6][7] - The report outlines a three-phase oil price trend in 2025, characterized by initial declines, a subsequent recovery, and a final drop influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production decisions [6][27] - Natural gas prices are expected to decrease due to increased LNG supply, with the JKM and TTF gas prices showing a downward trend compared to the previous year [6][30] Group 3 - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural improvements in end-consumer demand, particularly in the textile sector, although domestic consumption remains under pressure [7][56] - The report anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity as global interest rate cuts stimulate economic activity [7][8] - Key investment themes include cyclical opportunities, growth stocks, and companies benefiting from the coal chemical investment cycle [8][9] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality growth stocks, particularly in the coal chemical sector and energy companies with stable cash flows and high dividend yields [8][9] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and high-dividend firms like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8][9] - The report also notes the expected benefits for companies involved in high-end material imports and coal chemical equipment investments as the domestic coal chemical investment cycle unfolds [8][9]

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业深度 2025 年 12 月 16 日 供应端扩产高峰已过，"反 内卷"助力景气度回升 支撑评级的要点 投资主线 化工行业当前处于周期底部，"反内卷"有望加速行业竞争格局优化，推动景气 度上行，龙头企业有望实现盈利估值双提升，推荐万华化学、华鲁恒升，中国石 油，宝丰能源，新和成等。2）关注率先推行自律减产的涤纶长丝、农化、氟化工、 有机硅等子行业，推荐桐昆股份、新凤鸣、利尔化学、联化科技、云天化、巨化 股份、浙江龙盛，建议关注合盛硅业、兴发集团、新安股份、鲁西化工、扬农化 工。3）产能存在上限，当前处于周期底部的炼化行业，有望受益于落后产能出清， 景气度快速回升，推荐中国石化、中国石油、恒力石化、东方盛虹、卫星化学， 建议关注荣盛石化。 评级面临的主要风险 "反内卷"行动不及预期；全球经济增速放缓；国内稳增长政策力度减弱等。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20251130》20251130 《化工行业周报 20251123》20251123 《化工行业周报 20251116》20251116 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry report indicates a mixed performance in chemical product prices, with 42 products increasing in price, 37 decreasing, and 21 remaining stable during the week of December 8-14 [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid price increases [1][6] Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 47% of tracked chemical products saw a month-on-month price increase, while 44% experienced a decrease, and 9% remained unchanged [2] - The top price increases were noted in nitric acid, sulfuric acid, raw salt, bisphenol A, and TDI, while the largest declines were in PVA, LLDPE, trichloroethylene, and NYMEX natural gas [2] Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.44 per barrel (down 2.45%) and Brent crude at $61.12 per barrel (down 2.19%) [3] - The U.S. oil production averaged 13.853 million barrels per day, an increase of 38,000 barrels from the previous week and 222,000 barrels from the same period last year [3] - U.S. oil demand rose to an average of 21.082 million barrels per day, with gasoline demand increasing to 8.456 million barrels per day [3] TDI Market Analysis - TDI prices increased to an average of 14,713 yuan/ton, up 2.49% week-on-week and 5.51% month-on-month [4] - TDI production decreased, with an overall operating rate of approximately 58.55%, and various factories experiencing operational issues [4] - Average costs for TDI were 11,819 yuan/ton, down 0.92% week-on-week, while average gross profit rose by 31.79% week-on-week [4] Methionine Market Analysis - Methionine prices decreased to an average of 17,900 yuan/ton, down 2.45% week-on-week and 9.14% month-on-month [5] - The production remained stable at 18,350 tons, with an operating rate of 89.42% [5] - The cost of methionine was 13,853.73 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 23.67% [5] Valuation Metrics - As of December 12, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector was 24.14, and the price-to-book ratio was 2.19 [6] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector had a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 12.85 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued leading companies, sectors benefiting from policy support, and emerging fields such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials [6] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The political bureau meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies and the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, which is expected to provide a clearer reversal signal for the chemical industry at the bottom of the cycle [2][3] - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.2, indicating significant upside potential [2][18] - The report highlights the importance of supply-side optimization and the potential for price recovery in industries with high concentration and low profitability [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - The report discusses the impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices, with Brent oil closing at $61.28 per barrel, down $2.47 (-3.9%) from the previous week [17] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown unexpected recovery, which has increased attention on the chemical sector [18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The chemical sector index decreased by 2.2% in the week, ranking 26th among 31 industry sectors [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical sector index has increased by 25.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.0% [24][27] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 97 stocks rose while 325 fell during the week [32] - The top gainers included companies like Bluestar Technology (+18.1%) and Qiaoyuan Co. (+15.2%) [34] 4. Key Investment Themes - **Theme One**: Focus on upstream resource assets with strong profit certainty, such as phosphorus and sulfur [19] - **Theme Two**: Emphasis on supply-side optimization and price elasticity in sectors like organic silicon and PTA [20] - **Theme Three**: Attention to low-valued leading companies in the sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical [22] - **Theme Four**: Investment in new productive forces aligned with green energy and semiconductor materials [23]

万华化学与宝丰能源入围三季报归母净利润百强，清晰地反映了当前化工行业的两大核心逻辑：凭借全球竞争力穿越周期（万华化学） 和 依托成本优势实 现逆势扩张（宝丰能源）。同时，也映射出化工行业正在进行的一场 "高端化、低碳化" 的深刻变革。 1.万华化学（证券代码600309）：三季报归母净利润91.57亿元（同比增长-17.45%），排名第72名（半年报排名第74名）。 2.宝丰能源（证券代码600989）：三季报归母净利润89.50亿元（同比增长97.27%），排名第75名（半年报排名第78名）。 这两家公司代表了化工行业两种成功但不同的模式，正在不断变革中提质增效。同时，全球能源成本重构（如欧洲高成本）为中国具备完整产业链的化工龙 头提供了结构性机遇。万华化学的发展潜力在于 MDI格局优化和新材料业务的持续突破。 宝丰能源的发展潜力在于明确的产能增长和绿氢与现代煤化工协 同带来的低碳竞争力。通过推进技术创新与全球化运营，其全球竞争力有望不断提升。 ...

宝丰能源2025年上半年财报显示，公司累计销售聚乙烯、聚丙烯产品227.08万吨，实现营收149.4亿元。 简单计算可得，其烯烃产品平均单价约为6579.18元/吨。财报同时披露，公司煤制烯烃板块的毛利率高 达42.84%。 | . 1 F π | | --- | | 吨, | | . 灯 | | 单位: | | 序号 | 主要品种 | 产量 | 销量 | 销售收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 聚乙烯 | 116. 30 | 115. 29 | 775, 964. 98 | | 2 | 聚内烯 | 113.04 | 111. 79 | 718.049.48 | | 3 | EVA/LDPE | 11. 12 | 10. 95 | 97.009.97 | | ব | 焦灰 | 341.80 | 340. 15 | 343.672.06 | | 5 | 焦化苯 | 3.87 | 3.83 | 21,802.22 | | 6 | 改质沥青 | 6.80 | 6.81 | 24. 209. 00 | | 7 | 甲基叔丁基醚 | 5.15 | 5.06 | 25.0 ...

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to stabilize and recover in price due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints as the year-end safety inspections become stricter [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In October, electricity consumption exceeded expectations with a growth of 10.4%, while non-electric demand remained weak, leading to a 9.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports [1]. - Domestic coal prices saw fluctuations in November, with a rise followed by a decline, while long-term contract prices were adjusted upwards [1]. - International coal prices, particularly for Australian thermal and coking coal, continued to rise in November [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, and coal imports fell by 12.0% in November [1]. - The global seaborne coal loading volume dropped by 3.6% year-on-year in the first ten months, but demand from emerging markets remained strong [1]. - Seasonal demand is expected to increase from December to January, supporting coal prices as supply remains relatively low due to stricter safety regulations [2]. Group 3: Key Companies - Companies with stable earnings and dividends include China Shenhua (601008.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [3]. - Companies likely to benefit from improved demand expectations and supply reductions include Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) [3]. - Companies with notable long-term growth potential include Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) and China Qinfa (00866) [3].