上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01-21 02-21 03-21 04-21 05-21 06-21 07-21 08-21 09-21 10-21 11-21 12-21 01-21 宝丰能源 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 21.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 22.17/13.85 | | 市净率 | 3.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.21 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 158,767 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,116.94 ...

2025 年 2 月 17 日 22 时 16 分，宁夏宝丰能源马莲台煤矿（以下简称马莲台煤矿）20907 切眼导硐掘进 工作面发生一起一般爆破事故，造成 11 人受伤（其中9 人重伤、2人轻伤），直接经济损失 563.8 万 元。 经调查认定，马莲台煤矿"2·17"事故是一起因20907切眼导硐掘进工作面违规爆破作业扬起煤尘形成局 部爆燃造成的生产安全责任事故。 该矿在 20907 切眼导硐掘进工作面内违规裸露爆破，爆炸扬起粉煤达到爆燃浓度，引起煤尘爆燃，是事 故的直接原因： 国家矿山安全监察局宁夏局1月19日公布《宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司马莲台煤矿"2·17"一般爆破 事故调查报告》。 1.违规裸露爆破。现场未实施打眼作业，爆破工将炸药卷直接放置在迎头浮煤堆里实施爆破。现场视频 显示，事故发生前 10 分钟内，切眼导硐浮煤上炸药滑落，爆破工将部分炸药用脚向浮煤内踩踏、部分 炸药扔在浮煤上。 2.20907 切眼导硐留有浮煤。自2 月15 日至2月17日早班共进行了 5 次爆破作业，均未按照爆破说明书实 现全断面一次爆破成型，留有 1.8 米底煤台阶。 3.未采取综合防尘措施。事故当班辅助运输下山大巷供 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baofeng Energy's stock has shown significant growth in recent months, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 20, Baofeng Energy's stock rose by 2.03%, reaching 21.66 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 9.67 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.61%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 158.41 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Baofeng Energy's stock price has increased by 10.34%, with a 5-day increase of 11.71%, a 20-day increase of 18.30%, and a 60-day increase of 19.67% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baofeng Energy achieved a revenue of 35.545 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.950 billion CNY, which is a 97.27% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Baofeng Energy has distributed a total of 17.348 billion CNY in dividends, with 8.121 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Baofeng Energy had 65,400 shareholders, an increase of 3.70% from the previous period, with an average of 112,206 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 3.57% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 177 million shares, a decrease of 25.624 million shares from the previous period, while the Chemical ETF has entered the top ten as a new shareholder with 32.987 million shares [2].

Market Overview - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 3.05% on January 19, with Junzheng Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] Top Performers - Junzheng Group (601216) closed at 5.76, up 8.68%, with a trading volume of 4.2296 million shares and a transaction value of 2.373 billion [1] - Weiyuan Co., Ltd. (600955) closed at 18.72, up 8.52%, with a trading volume of 334,500 shares and a transaction value of 616 million [1] - New Jinlu (000510) closed at 16.69, up 7.68%, with a trading volume of 1.1245 million shares and a transaction value of 1.780 billion [1] Market Capital Flow - The chemical raw materials sector saw a net inflow of 117 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 236 million [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 353 million from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Junzheng Group had a net inflow of 237 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 103 million from speculative funds [3] - Weiyuan Co., Ltd. experienced a net inflow of 106 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 90.63 million from speculative funds [3] - North Yuan Group (601568) had a net inflow of 37.92 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 16.12 million from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in the chemical industry, focusing on price movements, supply and demand dynamics, and investment opportunities in undervalued leading companies amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and changing market conditions [1][4][8]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of January 12-18, 49 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 20 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. The average monthly price of 49% of products rose compared to the previous month [3]. - The average price of WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.66% to $63.76 per barrel during the same week [4]. - As of January 9, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 58,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 272,000 barrels year-on-year. Total U.S. oil demand was 21.009 million barrels per day, up by 178,200 barrels from the previous week [4]. Price Movements - The price of butadiene rose by 4.04% to 9,663 yuan per ton as of January 18, with a month-on-month increase of 25.98% but a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. The production of butadiene was 109,300 tons, down 2.85% from the previous week [5]. - Epoxy propane prices increased by 8.84% to 8,620 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year rise of 9.88%. The market operating rate was 65.38%, reflecting a 1.51% increase from the previous week [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - As of January 18, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the SW basic chemical sector is 14.68, at the 59.64% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.54, at the 40.20% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM P/E ratio of 13.44, at the 39.81% historical percentile [8]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid rising prices [2][8]. - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, with a focus on sectors like semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Baofeng Energy has shown significant stock performance and financial growth, indicating strong market interest and operational success in the coal-to-olefins sector. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 19, Baofeng Energy's stock rose by 2.01%, reaching 21.28 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 771 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.50%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 156.05 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Baofeng Energy's stock price has increased by 8.41%, with a 9.86% rise over the last five trading days, 17.89% over the last 20 days, and 23.01% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baofeng Energy achieved a revenue of 35.545 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.950 billion CNY, which is a 97.27% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Baofeng Energy has distributed a total of 17.348 billion CNY in dividends, with 8.121 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Baofeng Energy had 65,400 shareholders, an increase of 3.70% from the previous period, with an average of 112,206 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 3.57% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 177 million shares, a decrease of 25.624 million shares from the previous period, while Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and Chemical ETF are also among the top shareholders [3]

Core Viewpoint - Baofeng Energy, a leading enterprise in efficient coal-based new materials in China, is expected to achieve a record net profit of 11 to 12 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 73.57% to 89.34% due to the production launch of its Inner Mongolia olefin project [2][3][4] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 110 to 120 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of approximately 46.62 to 56.62 billion yuan compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 73.57% to 89.34% [3][4] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Baofeng Energy reported revenues of 355.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.43%, and a net profit of 89.50 billion yuan, up 97.27% [5][6] - The company’s financial condition has improved, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.10% as of September 2025, down from 51.98% at the end of 2024 [9] Project Developments - The Inner Mongolia olefin project, which began construction in 2021, is set to be the world's largest coal-to-olefin production line, with a capacity of 3 million tons per year and a green hydrogen coupling project [2][6][8] - The project is expected to be fully operational by mid-2025, significantly increasing the production and sales of olefin products [2][6] Shareholder Returns - Baofeng Energy has committed to a share repurchase plan of no less than 1 billion yuan, with 1 billion yuan already spent on repurchasing shares [10] - Since its listing in 2019, the company has distributed a total of 173.48 billion yuan in cash dividends, with an average dividend payout ratio of 40.59% [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane industry were 17,843 yuan/ton, 14,014 yuan/ton, and 14,188 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 200 yuan/ton, 157 yuan/ton, and 290 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits also declined [2]. - In the oil - gas - olefin sector, prices of raw materials such as ethane, propane, etc. had different changes this week. The average prices of polyethylene and polypropylene increased, and the theoretical profits of different production routes also changed accordingly [2]. - In the coal - chemical industry, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had slight fluctuations, and their gross profits also changed slightly [2]. - In the animal nutrition products sector, the average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine had minor changes this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The Basic Chemical Index had a weekly increase of 0.9%, a monthly increase of 12.3%, a quarterly increase of 12.9%, an annual increase of 44.7%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.0% as of 2026/1/16. Different chemical companies had different performance in terms of stock price changes and earnings. For example, Wanhua Chemical's stock price decreased by 0.8% this week, while Baofeng Energy's increased by 5.2% [8]. - The report also provided data on the total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of relevant companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data** - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: The average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI decreased this week. Their respective seven - year quantiles were 51%, 45%, and 65% for prices, and 71%, 49%, and 71% for gross profits [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane, NYMEX natural gas, Brent crude oil, and naphtha had different changes. Their ten - year quantiles also varied [8]. - **Profit Comparison of Different Routes**: The single - ton profits of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene had different changes compared to the previous week, the beginning of the year, and the same period last year [8]. - **C2 and C3 Plates**: The average prices and price differences between products and raw materials in the C2 and C3 plates had different changes, with different ten - year quantiles. For example, the price of ethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the price difference between HDPE and ethylene increased by 353 yuan/ton [10]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: - **Coal - Coke Products**: The average prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the gross profit of coke was - 47 yuan/ton, with a 3 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Traditional Coal - Chemical Products**: The average prices and gross profits of synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **New Materials**: The average prices and gross profits of DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, PA6, and PA66 had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **Animal Nutrition Products Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine changed slightly, with different ten - year quantiles [10]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends**: The report did not provide specific content in the text, only the title. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector**: The report presented the price trends of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in China, as well as their price - spread situations [16][18][20]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector**: It showed the price trends of raw materials such as MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, and the profit situations of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene [24][27][29]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector**: The report presented the price trends and gross profit situations of coal - coke products, traditional coal - chemical products, and new materials in the coal - chemical industry [40][46][51]. - **2.5 Animal Nutrition Products Sector**: It showed the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [55][59][61].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing an increase in performance announcements as the deadline for annual report forecasts approaches, with over 280 companies having disclosed their 2025 annual report forecasts by January 16, representing nearly 5.2% of the total market [1]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Nearly half of the disclosed companies have positive performance forecasts for 2025, with around 140 companies (47.6%) expecting an increase, slight increase, turnaround, or continued profit [3]. - The breakdown of positive forecasts includes 26.9% expecting an increase, 14.7% a slight increase, 5.6% a turnaround, and 0.3% continued profit [3]. - Conversely, about half of the companies are expected to incur losses in 2025, with 19.6% continuing losses, 10.5% first-time losses, 8.7% reduced losses, 4.9% increased losses, and 4.5% reduced forecasts [3]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The sectors with the highest number of companies expecting positive performance include basic chemicals, electronics, automotive, pharmaceutical biology, and machinery, accounting for nearly 56.6% of the positive forecast companies [3]. - In terms of loss forecasts, the sectors with the highest concentration of expected losses are electronics, electrical equipment, construction decoration, machinery, and pharmaceutical biology [4]. Group 3: Individual Company Performance - Among the disclosed forecasts, 11 companies are expected to have a net profit (lower limit) exceeding 5 billion yuan, with Zijin Mining leading at 51 billion yuan [8]. - Other notable companies with significant profit forecasts include Luoyang Molybdenum, Luxshare Precision, WuXi AppTec, Muyuan Foods, and Baofeng Energy, all exceeding 10 billion yuan [8]. - A total of 48 companies are expected to see their profit growth double, with Kewen Biological, Zhongtai Shares, SAIC Motor, and Bawei Storage among the top performers [8]. Group 4: Turnaround Companies - There are 16 companies expected to turn around from losses, with Kewen Biological leading with a projected profit growth of over 10 times [10]. - Other companies with significant turnaround forecasts include Zhongtai Shares, Huazheng New Materials, and Haowu Shares, all showing growth rates above 2 times [10]. - The sectors with the most turnaround companies include machinery, basic chemicals, agriculture, automotive, and others [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a positive trend in the petrochemical industry, with the China Petrochemical Industry Index rising by 0.8% and significant gains in constituent stocks such as Guangwei Composites and Tongcheng New Materials [1][2] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a continuous inflow of funds over the past seven days, totaling 173 million yuan, reaching a new high in size at 431 million yuan [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has recorded a net value increase of 54.60% over the past two years, with the highest single-month return since inception being 15.86% [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities analysis suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new phase of capital expenditure, with construction projects reaching their highest year-on-year growth since Q3 2012 [2] - The chemical industry is expected to experience a supply-demand reversal by 2026, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing internal competition [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petrochemical Industry Index account for 56.73% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [2]