证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学原料 宝丰能源(600989) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 12 日 原料下行助力盈利改善，内蒙古投产产能弹性显著 ——宝丰能源点评报告 事件： ❑ 公司发布 2024 年年报，全年实现营收 329.8 亿元（yoy+13%），归母净利润 63.4 亿元 （yoy+12%），其中 Q4 单季度营收 87.1 亿元（yoy-0%，qoq+18%），归母净利润 18.0 亿元（yoy+2%，qoq+46%）。 点评： ❑ 盈利预测与估值 公司是国内煤制烯烃行业龙头， 成本护城河显著，随着公司内蒙古基地等项目投 产，业绩弹性显著。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年 归 母 净 利 润 为 113.96/132.50/154.39 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 速 分 别 为 +79.81%/+16.27%/+16.53%，对应当前股价 PE 分别为 11/9/8 倍， 维持 "买入"评级。 ❑ 风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动风险，产品需求不及预期风险，新项目投产不及预期风险 财务摘要 | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 5.51 | 5.32 | 5.64 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 4.47 | -0.28 | 6.99 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 03 月 12 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：17.43 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：煤制烯烃 民企典范，成本领先成长广阔》， 2024.11.19 宝丰能源(600989.SH):价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！ 投资要点 请务必阅 ...

2025 年 3 月 13 日 | 費倩然 | | | --- | --- | | H70507@capital.com.tw | | | 目標價(元) | 21.00 | 公司基本資訊 | 產業別 | | 化工 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/3/12) | | 17.00 | | 上证指数(2025/3/12) | | 3371.92 | | 股價 12 個月高/低 | | 19.07/14.03 | | 總發行股數(百萬) | | 7333.36 | | A 股數(百萬) | | 7333.36 | | A 市值(億元) | | 1246.67 | | 主要股東 | | 宁夏宝丰集团 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (35.65%) | | 每股淨值(元) | | 5.86 | | 股價/賬面淨值 | | 2.90 | | | 一個月 三個月 | 一年 | | 股價漲跌(%) | 1.1 5.3 | 12.5 | | 産品組合 | | | --- | --- | | 烯烃产品 | 58.7% | | 焦化产品 | 30.8% | | 精细化工产品 | 10. ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 2024Q4 业绩环比大幅增长，内蒙项目逐步投产 周期/化工 事件：公司发布 2024 年报，2024 年实现营业收入 329.83 亿元，同比增长 13.21%，实现归母净利润 63.38 亿元，同比增长 12.16%，扣非归母净利润 67.80 亿元，同比增长13.97%；其中四季度单季实现收入87.08亿元，同比下降0.30%， 归母净利润 18.01 亿元，同比增长 2.33%，环比增长 46.16%，扣非归母净利润 18.74 亿元，同比增长 3.90%，环比增长 34.79%。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、原材料供应及价格波动、新增产能不及预期、 产品价格下跌。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 29136 | 32983 | 55334 | 62189 | 66938 | | 同比增长 | 2% | 13% | 68% ...

证券研究报告 宝丰能源 (600989 CH) 内蒙项目兑现，筑牢低成本护城河 资料来源：公司公告、华泰研究预测 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 12 日│中国内地 | 化学原料 | 宝丰能源于 3 月 11 日发布 24 年年报：24 年实现收入 329.8 亿元， yoy+13.2%，归母净利 63.4 亿元（扣非后 67.8 亿元），yoy+12.2%（扣非 后+14.0%）；其中 24Q4 单季度实现收入 87.1 亿元，yoy-0.3%/qoq+18.0%， 归母净利 18.0 亿元，yoy+2.3%/qoq+46.2%。公司拟派现 30.1 亿元（含税）， 其中：中小股东每股派现 0.46 元，大股东每股派现 0.39 元。公司 Q4 净利 同环比提升，超出我们的前瞻预期（16.4 亿元），主要系煤炭价格大幅回落， 煤制烯烃盈利水平显著提升。我们认为未来伴随内蒙项目陆续投产，低成本 产能扩张有望筑牢公司煤制烯烃领域竞争优势，维持"买入"评级。 内蒙基地逐步放量，成本压力缓解带动毛利率提升 据年报，24 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [7][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 33 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 6.34 billion, up 12.16% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7]. - The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is anticipated to double the company's output, significantly boosting revenue and profits [8]. - The company is well-positioned as a leader in the domestic coal-to-olefins sector, with a favorable outlook for long-term growth [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, with a current A-share price of RMB 17.00 as of March 12, 2025, and a market capitalization of RMB 124.67 billion [2]. - Major shareholder is Ningxia Baofeng Group, holding 35.65% of shares [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings in recent evaluations, with the latest rating issued on August 12, 2024 [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.34 billion for 2024, with a significant increase in polyethylene and polypropylene sales, up 36% and 55% year-on-year, respectively [8][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.4598 per share to minority shareholders, representing a dividend payout ratio of 47.44% of net profit [7][13]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The Inner Mongolia project is set to release 3 million tons of capacity by 2025, with plans for further expansion in Xinjiang [8]. - The company’s polyethylene production capacity is expected to grow by 61.90% year-on-year in 2024 [8]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The company benefits from stable prices for its main products, with a decrease in raw material coal prices contributing to an increase in gross margin by 2.75 percentage points to 33.15% [8][10]. - The average price of polyethylene in 2024 is projected to be RMB 7,088.56 per ton, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 10.86 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 71.39% [11][13]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.48, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.48 [11][13].

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月12日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 优于大市 四季度归母净利提升，内蒙烯烃项目逐步投产 公司 2024 年四季度归母净利润同环比提升。公司 2024 年营收 329.8 亿元 （同比+13%），归母净利润 63.38 亿元（同比+12%）；其中，2024 年四 季度营收 87.1 亿元（同比-0.3%，环比+18%），归母净利润 18.0 亿元 （同比+2%，环比+46%），毛利率/净利率为 31.4%/20.7%，同比略增； 期间费用率 5.9%，同环比下降。营收增长主要来自于新产能释放与销量 增加，同时费用率进一步优化助力利润提升。 公司主营产品聚烯烃产销量提升。2024 年四季度公司主营产品聚乙烯产销 量为 31.58/30.97 万吨，聚丙烯产销量为 34.15/34.06 万吨，产销量同 环比提升源于烯烃新产能贡献增量。四季度国内聚烯烃开启传统需求旺 季，并伴随国内政策性利好支撑，价格有所修复，公司聚乙烯/聚丙烯 不含税平均售价分别为 7106/6663 元/吨,聚乙烯价格同环比提升，聚丙 烯略降。EVA 量价环比提升，三季度检修装置恢复，2024 年四季度 E ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.98 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [7] - The first production line of the Inner Mongolia project, with an annual capacity of 1 million tons, is set to be operational by the end of 2024, which will enhance the sales of olefin products [7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in sales volumes for its main products, including PE, PP, and coke, due to the commissioning of new projects [7] - The report anticipates an increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with projections of 12.36 billion yuan and 14.08 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 32.98 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 13.21% for 2025 [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12.36 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 95.03% increase compared to 2024 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.69 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.09 [8] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow to 124.02 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.99% [8]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化学原料 宝丰能源（600989） 2024 年报点评：业绩稳步增长，内蒙&新疆 项目打开公司成长空间 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 29136 | 32983 | 56291 | 60389 | 60461 | | 同比（%） | 2.48 | 13.21 | 70.67 | 7.28 | 0.12 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5651 | 6338 | 12360 | 14076 | 14880 | | 同比（%） | (10.34) | 12.16 | 95.03 | 13.88 | 5.71 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.77 | 0.86 | 1.69 | 1.92 | 2.03 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.06 | 19.67 | 10.09 | 8.86 | 8.38 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.98 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [7] - The first production line of the Inner Mongolia project, with an annual capacity of 1 million tons, is set to be operational by the end of 2024, which will enhance the sales of olefin products [7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in sales volumes for its main products, including PE, PP, and coke, with respective increases of 36%, 55%, and 2% year-on-year in 2024 [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 12.36 billion yuan and 14.08 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on future growth [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 32.98 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 13.21% for 2025 and 70.67% for 2026 [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 95.03% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.69 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.09 [8] - The company's total assets are forecasted to reach 124.02 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.99% [8]