Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989) [1][3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.34% to 5.651 billion yuan. The adjusted net profit increased by 11.46% to 5.949 billion yuan [1] - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 8.735 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 25.77% and 19.48%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.760 billion yuan, up 89.25% year-on-year and 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The Ningdong Phase III project has been steadily contributing to performance, with a production capacity utilization rate of 93.7% and a total of 1.585 million tons of olefin sales in 2023, an increase of 22.1% year-on-year [1] - The oil-coal price differential has improved, leading to a continuous rise in the profitability of the olefin segment. The report anticipates a recovery in olefin profitability due to the widening oil-coal price gap [1] - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing steadily, with a total olefin production capacity expected to reach 5.2 million tons upon completion. An employee stock ownership plan is proposed to align the interests of core employees [1] Financial Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 29.136 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.651 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.3% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.77 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [1] - Forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate significant growth, with net profits expected to reach 9.779 billion yuan in 2024 and 14.823 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12 and 8, respectively [1][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34% [5][7] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by the production of the olefins phase III project, which increased sales volume, while the decline in profit was mainly due to a significant drop in coke prices [5] - The company is actively advancing capacity construction and major projects, with several significant projects underway to enhance capacity and create new profit growth points [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.48% [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 5.651 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.34% compared to the previous year [7] - The gross margin and net margin for 2023 were 30.40% and 19.39%, respectively, showing a decrease of 2.47 and 2.78 percentage points year-on-year [5][7] Product Performance - Revenue changes by product for 2023 included polyethylene (+12.22%), polypropylene (+4.28%), coke (-13.40%), pure benzene (-49.72%), modified asphalt (-14.08%), and MTBE (+2.21%) [5] - The average selling prices (excluding tax) for these products also saw declines, with coke prices dropping by 22.86% [5] Future Outlook - The company expects to see significant growth in EPS, forecasting 1.17 yuan for 2024, 1.46 yuan for 2025, and 1.76 yuan for 2026 [6][11] - The estimated reasonable valuation range for the company is between 18.72 and 21.06 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 16-18 times for 2024 [6] Capacity Expansion - The company has completed the olefins phase III project, adding 1.5 million tons/year of methanol capacity and 1 million tons/year of olefins capacity [6] - New projects in Inner Mongolia are expected to be completed in 2024, further enhancing production capabilities [6] Cost Management - The company has implemented 15 energy-saving projects in 2023, achieving a reduction in comprehensive energy consumption by 2.55% [6] - The comprehensive electricity price (including tax) decreased by 0.0215 yuan per kilowatt-hour compared to 2022 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.68 CNY, based on the current price of 15.72 CNY [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.14 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10% to 5.65 billion CNY [2]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 showed a significant recovery with a revenue of 8.74 billion CNY, up 26% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased production and higher coke prices [3]. - The company is expected to see growth in 2024 due to multiple projects coming online, including a significant increase in polyethylene and polypropylene production capacity [4]. - The Inner Mongolia project, with an investment of 67.3 billion CNY, aims to establish a coal-to-olefins capacity of 4 million tons, which is projected to generate an average annual revenue of 21.3 billion CNY and increase net profit by 6.2 billion CNY [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 39.53 billion CNY, 57.51 billion CNY, and 62.11 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 46%, and 8% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 8.57 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 51.79% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.17 CNY, 1.90 CNY, and 2.08 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][7].

2024 年 3月 21日公司披露了年报，2023 年公司实现营收291.36 亿元，同比增长 2.48%；实现归母净利润 56.51 亿元，同比下降 10.34%；其中 Q4 实现营收87.35 亿元，同比增长 25.77%；实现归 母净利润17.60 亿元，同比增长89.25%。 四季度烯烃新产能投产小幅贡献增量，稳定后预计仍将有所提升： 四季度公司宁夏三期项目进入运行状态，聚烯烃产能提升90万吨， 带动四季度聚烯烃的产量获得提升，环比增长约15 万吨，预估进 入2024 年三期项目装置运行逐步稳定，将有望进一步提升产量， 实现满负荷甚至超负荷运行；根据百川宁夏动力煤价格数据，四 季度烯烃的原料价格有所提升，带动烯烃价差有所收窄，带动四 季度公司整体毛利率下行约3.5个点至30.93%。一季度煤炭价格 环比四季度呈现下行趋势，带动烯烃价差有一定程度的回升，2024 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 年宁夏三期和内蒙项目仍将贡献增量，带动烯烃板块盈利提升； 17.00 1,600 焦炭运行有所承压，远期规划逐步着手：四季度公司焦炭销量已 1,400 16.00 1,200 经接近满负荷运行，但由于焦煤价格维 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Trading Buy" [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 29.136 billion RMB for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.651 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.34% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 8.745 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.48%. The net profit for the same quarter was 1.760 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 89.25% [4][6]. - The company has multiple projects that commenced production in 2023, contributing to revenue growth, although the decline in product prices has negatively impacted gross margins [5][6]. Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, with a focus on olefin products (48.6% of revenue), coking products (38.7%), and fine chemicals (12.7%) [2]. - The current A-share price is 15.60 RMB, with a target price set at 17.90 RMB [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company’s polyethylene sales reached 830,000 tons in 2023, up 18% year-on-year, while polypropylene sales increased by 14% to 750,000 tons. Coking sales also rose by 12% to 6.98 million tons [5][6]. - The average price for polyethylene was 7,084 RMB/ton (down 19% year-on-year), and for polypropylene, it was 6,759 RMB/ton (down 23% year-on-year) [5][6]. - The gross margin for 2023 decreased by 2.47 percentage points to 30.40% due to falling product prices [5]. Future Outlook - The company is in a rapid capacity expansion phase, with new projects expected to significantly increase production capacity. The total olefin production capacity is projected to double from 2.1 million tons to 5.1 million tons per year [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 7.881 billion RMB, 13.273 billion RMB, and 14.823 billion RMB respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 39%, 68%, and 12% [7][8].

Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 2,047,551,370, which translates to CNY 0.3158 per share for minority shareholders and CNY 0.2650 per share for major shareholders[4]. - The total number of shares used for the dividend calculation is 7,313,816,494 shares, excluding repurchased shares[4]. - The company's cash dividend distribution is subject to the condition that the net profit for the year is positive and the accumulated undistributed profits at year-end are also positive[138]. - The cash dividend policy stipulates that at least 20% of the distributable profit should be distributed in cash during the first three years post-IPO[138]. - In mature stages without significant capital expenditure, the cash dividend proportion should be at least 80% of the profit distribution[138]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to CNY 2,047,551,370, which represents 36.24% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the consolidated financial statements[140]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was approximately CNY 29.14 billion, an increase of 2.48% compared to CNY 28.43 billion in 2022[16]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was approximately CNY 5.65 billion, a decrease of 10.34% from CNY 6.30 billion in 2022[16]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 31.19% to approximately CNY 8.69 billion in 2023, compared to CNY 6.63 billion in 2022[16]. - The total assets of the company reached approximately CNY 71.63 billion at the end of 2023, reflecting a 24.40% increase from CNY 57.58 billion at the end of 2022[16]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 13.76% to approximately CNY 38.54 billion at the end of 2023, compared to CNY 33.87 billion at the end of 2022[16]. - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were CNY 0.77, down 10.47% from CNY 0.86 in 2022[17]. - The weighted average return on equity decreased to 15.72% in 2023, down 3.85 percentage points from 19.57% in 2022[17]. Audit and Compliance - The company has received a standard unqualified audit report from Ernst & Young Hua Ming[3]. - The board of directors and management have confirmed the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the annual report[2]. - There are no non-operating fund occupations by controlling shareholders or related parties reported[5]. - The company has not violated decision-making procedures for external guarantees[5]. - The company does not face any significant risks related to the inability of the majority of directors to guarantee the report's integrity[5]. - The company has established a comprehensive internal control system, maintaining effective financial reporting controls without significant deficiencies[142]. Risk Management - The company has outlined potential risks in its future development discussions[6]. - The report includes a forward-looking statement risk disclaimer, indicating uncertainties in future plans and strategies[5]. - The company aims to enhance risk prevention by systematically identifying and addressing issues related to land, energy, water, pollution, and carbon emission rights[101]. - The company expects to face challenges in actual production capacity realization due to regulatory and market conditions, potentially leading to lower than planned capacity coming online[96]. Research and Development - The company filed 130 patent applications in 2023, with 38 patents granted, indicating a strong focus on innovation[28]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 185.76% to RMB 431.07 million, reflecting a strong focus on innovation[54]. - The company is focused on strengthening research and development of key technologies to extend the industrial chain and develop new products[101]. - The company aims to enhance its innovation capabilities by developing high-performance, specialized polyethylene products and expanding into high-end fine chemicals[99]. Environmental Responsibility - The company invested CNY 226,051,680 in environmental protection during the reporting period[147]. - The company has obtained pollution discharge permits for all production projects as of 2023, ensuring compliance with environmental regulations[148]. - The company implemented 17 energy-saving and carbon reduction projects in 2023, achieving a total emission reduction of 756,500 tons[156]. - The dry quenching project at the coking plant involved an investment of over 1 billion yuan, expected to save approximately 360,000 tons of standard coal annually and reduce carbon emissions by about 900,000 tons[157]. - The company’s hydrogen energy project utilizes renewable energy sources to produce "green hydrogen" and "green oxygen," integrating new energy with modern coal chemical processes[157]. - The company’s environmental protection measures include a focus on reducing waste gas, waste, and wastewater emissions, contributing positively to regional environmental quality[156]. Corporate Governance - The board of directors operates in compliance with the company's articles of association and relevant regulations, ensuring prudent and scientific decision-making[111]. - The supervisory board strictly adheres to legal and regulatory requirements, effectively safeguarding shareholder rights and company interests[112]. - The company has established four specialized committees under the board of directors to ensure efficient operations and sound decision-making[111]. - The independent directors play a crucial role in providing independent opinions on significant matters, protecting the rights of minority shareholders[111]. - The company has a long-term commitment to timely and strictly fulfill its obligations regarding related party transactions[166]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its market presence and product offerings through new projects and technological advancements in the olefin and fine chemical sectors[29][30]. - The company plans to focus on risk control, performance improvement, and team building in its operational strategy for 2024[100]. - The company is exploring new technologies for hydrogen production from renewable energy sources, aiming to become a leading supplier of coal-based new materials and "green hydrogen"[99]. - The company is expanding its market presence, targeting new regions in Southeast Asia, aiming for a 10% market share by 2025[118]. Employee Management - The total number of employees in the parent company is 13,728, and the total number of employees in major subsidiaries is 5,034, resulting in a combined total of 18,762 employees[133]. - The company has implemented a compensation policy aimed at attracting, retaining, and developing talent, enhancing employee loyalty and team cohesion[134]. - The total outsourced labor hours amount to 4,530,960 hours, with total payments for outsourced labor reaching 55.877 million yuan[136]. - The company conducted training programs focusing on enhancing basic skills and compliance, achieving the highest certification rates historically for specialized personnel[135]. Related Party Transactions - The company engaged in related party transactions, including purchasing coal for 350,187,241.77 RMB, which accounted for 3.11% of similar transactions[179]. - The company purchased electricity from a related party for 53,302,069.71 RMB, representing 4.89% of similar transactions[179]. - The company purchased gasoline from a related party for 14,151,146.43 RMB, which constituted 93.99% of similar transactions[179]. - The company purchased diesel from a related party for 48,458,052.90 RMB, representing 100% of similar transactions[179]. - The company reported no non-operating fund occupation by controlling shareholders or related parties[172]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders reached 71,110 by the end of the reporting period, up from 66,274 at the end of the previous month[191]. - The top ten shareholders held a total of 5,160,470,000 shares, with Ningxia Baofeng Group holding 2,608,470,063 shares, representing 35.57% of the total[192]. - The company did not report any changes in share capital structure during the reporting period[188]. - The controlling shareholder, Ningxia Baofeng Group Co., Ltd., holds 2,608,470,000 shares, which are subject to a 50-month lock-up period[195].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.3% year-on-year. The Q4 performance showed a significant improvement with a revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, up 25.8% year-on-year and 19.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.76 billion yuan, up 89.3% year-on-year [3] - The olefin segment benefited from a decline in coal prices, improving cost structures, and the contribution from the Ningdong Phase III project. The revenue from olefin products reached 14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, with a gross margin of 30.3%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [3] - The company is expanding its coal-to-olefin capacity, with plans for a 5 million ton capacity in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to significantly enhance performance in the olefin segment [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 28.43 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 39.298 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.88% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 6.303 billion yuan, projected to rise to 8.986 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a growth of 59.04% [2] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 0.77 yuan per share, expected to increase to 1.23 yuan in 2024 [2] Business Segments - The olefin segment's revenue was 14 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 30.3%. The sales volumes for polyethylene and polypropylene were 830,000 tons and 750,000 tons, respectively, showing increases from the previous year [3] - The coking segment faced challenges with a revenue of 11.2 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year, due to weak downstream demand [3] Capacity Expansion - The company’s coal-to-olefin capacity reached 2.2 million tons per year by the end of 2023, with plans for an additional 5 million tons in Inner Mongolia, expected to start production in Q4 2024 [3] Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 9 billion yuan for 2024 and 15 billion yuan for 2025, with a new estimate of 16.1 billion yuan for 2026. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 12.7, 7.6, and 7.1 times [3]

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月22日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 买入 四季度业绩同环比提升，产能持续投放 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2023年业绩同比下降，2023Q4业绩同环比提升。公司发布2023年年度报 基础化工·化学原料 告，2023年营收291.4亿元（同比+2.5%），归母净利润56.5亿元（同 证券分析师：杨林 证券分析师：余双雨 比-10.3%），扣非归母净利润59.5亿元（同比-11.5%）；其中2023Q4 010-88005379 021-60375485 yanglin6@guosen.com.cn yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn 单季度营收87.3亿元（同比+25.8%，环比+19.5%），归母净利润17.6 S0980520120002 S0980523120001 亿元（同比+89.3%，环比+7.7%），扣非归母净利润18.0亿元（同比+85.5%， 基础数据 环比+5.5%）。2023Q4销售毛利率为30.9%（同比+9.6pct，环比-3.5pct）， 投资评级 买入(维持) 销售净利率为20.1%（同比+6.8pct，环比-2.2pct）； ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.34% to 5.651 billion yuan [5] - The company's olefin segment saw both sales and profitability increase, while the coking segment experienced a decline in profitability [6] - The company is recognized as a leader in coal-to-olefin production, with multiple projects progressing smoothly, indicating strong growth potential [12] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 8.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.48% [3] - The net profit for Q4 2023 was 1.760 billion yuan, up 89.25% year-on-year and 7.70% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 4.67%, an increase of 1.93 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin was 30.93%, up 9.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 20.15%, an increase of 6.76 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product Segment Performance - The olefin segment generated revenue of 14.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.13%, with a gross margin of 30.25% [4] - The coking segment's revenue was 11.183 billion yuan, down 14.62% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.02% [4] - The fine chemical products segment achieved revenue of 3.670 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%, with a gross margin of 35.51% [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.417 billion yuan, 13.889 billion yuan, and 15.808 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.6, 8.2, and 7.2 [12][52] - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its production capacity significantly, particularly in the olefin segment [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.651 billion yuan, down 10.34% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 8.735 billion yuan, up 25.77% year-on-year and 19.48% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.760 billion yuan, marking an 89.25% increase year-on-year and a 7.70% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in annual profit was primarily due to the significant drop in coke prices, which fell by 22.86% year-on-year, impacting the profitability of the coking segment. However, the successful launch of the Ningdong Phase III olefin project contributed to the strong performance in Q4 [1] - The company’s sales volumes for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 8.325 million tons, 7.528 million tons, and 6.976 million tons respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 18.24%, 14.10%, and 12.26% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.651 billion yuan. The Q4 performance was particularly strong, with revenue of 8.735 billion yuan and net profit of 1.760 billion yuan [1] - The company expects revenues of 37.355 billion yuan and 60.015 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, representing growth rates of 28.21% and 60.66% respectively. The net profit is projected to be 7.550 billion yuan and 16.397 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth of 33.62% and 117.16% [5][6] Business Outlook - The coal-to-olefins industry is experiencing an upward trend, supported by rising oil prices and a significant drop in coal prices. The company’s olefin production capacity is expected to increase significantly with the commissioning of the Ningdong Phase III project and the Inner Mongolia project, which will enhance its market position [2] - The Inner Mongolia project, which includes a capacity of 2.6 million tons/year for coal-to-olefins and associated facilities, is anticipated to start production in 2024, further boosting the company's growth potential [2]