网内外业务齐拓展，持续推进 SST 布局 四方股份(601126) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | 本报告导读： 公司是国内极少数能够提供数据中心交直流配电系统一二次关键设备及全套解决方 案的企业。针对 AIDC 特殊需求，公司加紧与客户建立深度合作关系。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 盈利预测与投资评级。预计 2025-2027 年，公司归母净利润 8.43 亿 元、9.94 亿元、11.72 亿元，增速为 17.8%、17.9%、17.9%。对应 EPS 1.01 元、1.19 元、1.41 元。结合公司市场地位，以及同业估值，给 予公司 2026 年 40 倍 PE，目标价 47.6 元，维持"增持"评级。 网内、网外业务齐拓展： （1）主网业务：受益于二次设备招标规模的带动，公司中标规模明 显高于预期。 （2）配网业务：公司积极推进一二次融合、综合能源管理等技术和 产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the power equipment sector [4][15]. Core Insights - North American CSP companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with Meta's Q4 2025 capex reaching $22.14 billion and projected to rise to $115-135 billion in 2026. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are also increasing their capex, indicating a robust demand for AI training and inference [3][12][13]. - Domestic AI applications are entering a commercialization inflection point, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba launching significant promotional campaigns to stimulate user engagement and application usage [12][13]. - The AI industry is transitioning from a focus on computational power to a collaborative expansion involving infrastructure and application ecosystems, benefiting sectors such as servers, power equipment, data centers, and liquid cooling systems [14]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report suggests focusing on the IDC sector, highlighting companies like Kehua Data and Jinpan Technology due to their growth potential. It also recommends monitoring high-voltage circuit breakers and power supply sectors, with specific mentions of companies like Liangxin and Sunshine Power [4][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic data center sector is beginning to expand and upgrade, with significant opportunities in direct current power supply equipment. The power equipment sector is expected to benefit from these trends [4][17]. - The report highlights that the State Grid's fixed asset investment grew by over 35% year-on-year in January, indicating strong infrastructure investment [18][19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, including Kehua Data, Liangxin, and Sunshine Power, with specific EPS and PE ratios outlined for 2024 to 2026 [7][16].

证券日报网讯2月9日，四方股份（601126）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年度经营情况 符合既定目标，整体推进有序、交付节奏正常。 ...

证券日报网讯2月9日，四方股份（601126）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司坚定发展储能业 务。公司目前公布的营收构成按网内、网外及其他进行分类的，储能属于公司产品的一部分，从营收构 成的角度来看，拆分到了网内和网外业务里，分类方式不同。公司储能产品以"全栈自研、全域支撑"为 目标，持续加大研发投入，推动构网型控制技术、高压级联储能技术、高安全储能集成等先进技术的研 究及工程应用。目前，公司储能产品和解决方案已实现全应用场景覆盖，在发输配用各个环节有效支撑 电网安全稳定运行和电量高效利用，公司持续加大研发及市场投入，加快技术迭代以及海内外市场拓 展。在技术迭代方面，实现了构网型储能技术在国内外多个项目应用；火储联合调频技术完成储能与百 万千瓦机组联合调频项目投运；集中式储能变流器技术在电网侧大型独立储能电站的应用规模持续扩 大。市场拓展方面，进一步推动海外市场的应用规模。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The data center industry has become the core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration for power equipment [5][2] - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate AI industry multidimensional indicators to accurately gauge the demand for power distribution equipment, given the capital expenditure scale and long investment return cycles in the data center sector [2][5] - Key indicators are constructed from three aspects: demand side (capital expenditure from leading cloud vendors), supply chain (GPU supply tracking), and AI application side (development of AI applications) [2][5] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Capital expenditure from overseas major cloud vendors reached $113.862 billion in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.30% [7] - Alibaba's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55% [10] - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.05% [10] Supply Chain - NVIDIA's total revenue in Q3 2025 was $57.006 billion, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [15] - TSMC's revenue in December 2025 was 335 billion NTD, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [22] - The CPU price index in December 2025 was 101.21, showing a slight increase from 99.04 in November [27] AI Application Side - The token call volume from January 27 to February 2, 2026, was 9.81 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.91% [36] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index decreased by over 50% in Q3 2025 [45] - The report highlights the steady growth in the number of AI models and the increasing application deployment, which directly impacts the capital expenditure cycle of data centers [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the power industry is expected to undergo high-quality development due to accelerated marketization and ongoing reforms in the electricity system in China, particularly in the context of the "dual carbon" strategy [2] - The report highlights that the investment in the power grid is anticipated to increase, with significant growth in transformer exports to the U.S. and other countries in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of gas turbines as a primary solution for addressing electricity shortages in the U.S., with Chinese companies expected to expand their presence in international markets [4] Group 2 - The report notes that the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) power lines is likely to accelerate due to the rising demand for green electricity, despite a slowdown in construction during the latter part of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - The investment in distribution networks is expected to become a key focus during the 15th Five-Year Plan, as the reliability of power supply is challenged by the rapid growth in peak electricity load [3] - The profitability of wind power equipment is projected to continue improving, with domestic companies accelerating their international expansion, supported by high bidding volumes and rising prices [5]

Group 1 - The power industry is expected to achieve high-quality development as it enters a year of comprehensive marketization, driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and accelerated reforms in the electricity system [3][7][8] - The electricity market reform is set to fully unfold in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with significant policies introduced in the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan that will have far-reaching impacts [3][11][12] - The core idea of the electricity reform is to reflect the different values of power sources (energy value, capacity value, adjustment value, and clean value) in market pricing, which has been historically dominated by energy value due to the predominance of coal power [8][10] Group 2 - The reform is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) and distribution networks, with UHV construction likely to speed up again as green electricity demand rises [3][16][24] - The investment in distribution networks has been low, with a continuous decline in the investment ratio, but this is expected to change as the demand for reliable power supply increases [28][34][41] - The introduction of capacity pricing for UHV and distribution networks is anticipated to stabilize project returns and promote the development of related projects [26][41] Group 3 - The surge in AI investments is projected to significantly increase electricity demand in the U.S., with OpenAI planning to deploy over 250GW of computing power by 2033, which could lead to a substantial electricity shortfall [45][49] - The U.S. electricity demand has been stagnant, but projections indicate that by 2030, peak load could approach 1000GW, driven largely by data centers [49][51] - The anticipated increase in electricity demand from AI investments presents a significant opportunity for companies involved in power generation and distribution [45][49] Group 4 - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to improve, with domestic companies accelerating their international expansion as domestic bidding volumes remain high and prices trend upward [3][4] - Companies such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Industry are recommended for investment due to their competitive advantages in cost and market position [3][4]

Core Insights - The report introduces a "Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework" that integrates multiple factors affecting stock price performance, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than relying on a single indicator [3][9] - Historical backtesting from 2016 to February 2025 shows that industries with higher scores in this framework tend to perform better, with annualized returns for the top scoring group at 11.8% compared to -10.5% for the lowest scoring group [21][23] - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors for February, particularly in high valuation industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers [3][34] Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework - The framework consists of five dimensions: market style, fundamentals, liquidity, trading, and valuation, with subjective judgments applied to market style, liquidity, and valuation [9][12] - The scoring process involves adjusting weights based on market conditions, with equal weighting during non-earnings seasons and increased emphasis on fundamentals during earnings seasons [8][30] February Market Outlook - The report anticipates a growth-oriented market style for February, with expectations of net inflows from public funds and a focus on high valuation sectors [3][34] - Key industries identified for investment include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [34][35] Industry Recommendations - **Electronics and Communications**: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and ShenNan Circuit are highlighted for their strong positions in AI-related markets and expected growth in demand for high-end products [36] - **Power Equipment**: Firms such as Shenghong Co. and Yangguang Electric are recommended due to their potential benefits from overseas storage and AI power sectors [40] - **High-End Manufacturing**: Companies like Anpeilong and Jingjin Equipment are noted for their advancements in robotics and AI applications, with significant growth potential [42] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to benefit from rising copper prices and strategic stockpiling initiatives [46][47] - **Computers**: Firms such as Hikvision and Kingsoft are recognized for their strong AI capabilities and market positioning, with expectations for sustained growth [49][50]

2月5日，上证指数下跌0.64%，深证成指下跌1.44%，创业板指下跌1.55%。盘后龙虎榜数据显示，共有48只个股 因当日异动登上龙虎榜，资金净流入最多的是平潭发展（000592.SZ），达8.34亿元。 据21投资通智能监测，22只个股龙虎榜出现了机构的身影，北向资金参与龙虎榜中的个股共涉及22只。 8.34亿资金抢筹平潭发展，3.74亿资金出逃四方股份 48只上榜的龙虎榜个股中，23只个股被净买入，25只个股被净卖出。其中，资金净买入最多的是平潭发展，达 8.34亿元，占总成交金额的30.64%。平潭发展当日收盘上涨10.05%，换手率为12.27%。 | | | | んだけ170円/12大天月/九 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 买方机 构数 | 卖方机 构数 | 机构净买额 (万元) | 机构净买额占 总成交比 | 换手率 | | 巨力索具 | 7.21% | 2 | 0 | 24755 | 3.48% | 40.36% | | 海峡创新 | 20% | 1 | 2 | 5088 | 1.69% | 3 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On February 5, a total of 30 stocks were involved with institutional investors, with 10 stocks showing net buying and 20 stocks showing net selling. Group 1: Institutional Net Buying - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were: - Yinlun Co., Ltd. with a net buying amount of 442.29 million yuan, an increase of 2.75% [1][2] - TeFa Information with a net buying amount of 281.63 million yuan, an increase of 4.73% [1][2] - JuLi Rigging with a net buying amount of 247.55 million yuan, an increase of 7.21% [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Net Selling - The top three stocks with the highest net selling by institutions were: - Sifang Co., Ltd. with a net selling amount of 288.91 million yuan, a decrease of 10.01% [1][3] - Minbao Optoelectronics with a net selling amount of 81.17 million yuan, an increase of 20.00% [1][3] - *ST Chengchang with a net selling amount of 80.82 million yuan [1][3]