证券研究报告 2026年01月26日 电力设备 2026年电力设备年度展望：数据中心强化电力基建 需求，出海仍是企业长期增长驱动力 评级：推荐(维持) 李航(证券分析师) 王刚(证券分析师) S0350521120006 S0350524020001 lih11@ghzq.com.cn wangg06@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 68% 2025/01/… 2025/04/… 2025/07/… 2025/10/… 2026/01/… 电力设备 沪深300 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 3 核心提要 《新能源行业周报：马斯克推动太空算力布局，美国本土光伏产能建设加速 （推荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李昂》——2026-01-24 《电力设备行业周报：国网"十五五"投资预计高增，AIDC驱动北美电力紧 缺持续（推荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李昂》——2026-01-18 《电力设备行业周报：太空光伏催化不断落地，国内AIDC建设有望加速（推 荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李昂》——2026-01-11 沪深300表现 | 表 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the AI hardware and power supply sectors, particularly highlighting the developments in HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) technology and its implications for various companies involved in this space [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments AI Hardware Market - North American CSP cloud providers are expected to report earnings in mid-February, with overseas cloud business anticipated to exceed expectations, potentially acting as a catalyst for the AI hardware sector [1][2]. - The GTC conference in March will feature product showcases from companies like NVIDIA and Google, indicating a significant opportunity for investment in AI hardware over the next month [2]. Company Performances - **Maigemit**: - Expected to achieve an order volume of 16,000 AI power cabinets for the year, capturing 16% of the NV system market share, with potential growth to 20% [1][4]. - The total market size for AI power and HVDC is approximately 100 billion, with Maigemit's 20% market share translating to an additional revenue of 20 billion and profit of 4 billion, corresponding to a market valuation of 80 billion [1][4]. - **Youyou Green Energy**: - Noted as the most dynamic player in the HVDC sector, primarily engaged in charging pile modules and collaborating closely with Schneider and ABB [1][6]. - Expected to achieve a profit of 300-350 million in its main business by 2026, with HVDC business contributing an additional 400-500 million in profit [7]. HVDC Technology Developments - Significant changes in HVDC technology are anticipated by 2026, with major clients like ByteDance planning to adopt 40% of their cabinets using ±400V HVDC systems, and Google aiming for 30% with 800V HVDC systems [5]. - The penetration rate of HVDC technology is projected to rise from 0% to 30% by 2026, marking a critical year for the adoption of these systems [5]. Domestic Companies in Global HVDC Supply Chain - Domestic companies such as Yingfeiyuan, Tonghe, and Youyou Green Energy are positioned favorably in the global HVDC supply chain, providing OEM services to international firms due to lower production costs and supply chain advantages [3][8]. - Recommended companies in the HVDC sector include Youyou Green Energy and Tonghe, which are expected to benefit from increased demand for their products [9]. SST (Solid State Transformer) Market - SST is a growing area of interest, particularly for data centers, with companies like Google and Meta setting ambitious targets for net-zero emissions and PUE below 1.2 by 2024, driving demand for SST products [10]. - However, technical challenges have slowed SST product development, with expectations for small-scale deliveries starting in 2027 [10][11]. - Leading companies in the SST field include Yangguang Sifang, with key component suppliers like Telik and Jinqiuhua also being noteworthy [12]. Additional Insights - The AI hardware market is projected to have significant growth potential, with Maigemit being a top recommendation due to its potential market valuation reaching 100 billion [13]. - The overall landscape indicates a robust opportunity for investment in companies that are well-positioned within the AI hardware and power supply sectors, particularly those involved in HVDC and SST technologies [13].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) power supply revolution, highlighting significant advancements in data center chip power consumption and cabinet power density, with expectations for substantial growth in power requirements by 2028 [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Power Consumption Trends**: Data center chip power consumption has increased dramatically, with NVIDIA's Ruby chip consuming between 1,800 to 3,600 watts, a tenfold increase from the Titan X's 250 watts a decade ago [5]. Similar trends are observed in Google's TPU chips and other major players like Microsoft and Meta [5]. - **Cabinet Power Density**: The power density of data center cabinets has significantly improved, with NVIDIA's cabinets reaching megawatt levels, up from approximately 10 kilowatts in 2020 [6]. Google is also expected to achieve similar advancements with its Super Pod, targeting 10 megawatts by 2025 [6]. - **Future Power Requirements**: By 2028, North America is projected to add around 70 gigawatts of power for AI data centers, with global additions expected to reach 100 gigawatts [7]. - **Power Supply Strategies**: Both NVIDIA and Google have outlined four-step strategies for data center power supply, focusing on transitioning from traditional UPS systems to high-efficiency solutions like medium-voltage rectifiers and solid-state transformers (SST) [8][9]. - **OCP Standards Evolution**: The OCP (Open Compute Project) has iterated its power supply standards, significantly increasing the power capacity of server PSUs and transitioning to external power shelves, enhancing overall efficiency [10]. Investment Opportunities - **AIDC Power Supply Iteration**: Investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: AIDC power supply hosts (PSUs, HVDC, SST), energy storage at the power station level, core components (solid-state circuit breakers, supercapacitors, DCDC converters), and third-generation semiconductors (SiC and GaN) [3]. - **Energy Storage Market**: The U.S. energy storage market for data centers is expected to exceed 100 GWh by 2028, driven by new regulations encouraging self-built generation facilities and energy storage systems [4][25]. - **Core Component Development**: The shift to new technologies is driving the development of core components, such as solid-state circuit breakers, which are expected to see increased adoption due to their rapid response characteristics [4][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The AI chip capacitor market is dominated by Samsung and Murata, with significant demand for high-end capacitors driven by AI technology advancements [16]. The value of inductors in AI applications has also increased significantly, reflecting the rising power requirements [18]. - **Material Requirements**: AI chips have stringent material requirements, with high margins for suppliers who can meet performance specifications [19]. Companies like 博迁新材 (Bojian New Materials) are noted for their advanced capabilities in supplying nano-powders essential for AI applications [20]. - **Regulatory Impact**: New U.S. regulations are pushing data centers to adopt energy storage systems to enhance grid responsiveness, particularly in regions like Texas, where demand response capabilities are becoming critical [23][24]. - **Future Trends in Power Supply**: The PSU market is projected to reach a scale of billions in the next three years, driven by the expansion of IDC facilities and the adoption of HVDC technology [30][32]. - **Domestic Manufacturers' Advantages**: Domestic manufacturers in the power electronics sector are noted for their rapid technological advancements and broad application, positioning them favorably in the market [34]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the evolving landscape of the AIDC power supply industry and potential investment opportunities.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the trends and developments in the power systems, humanoid robots, and industrial control sectors, highlighting the significant growth potential in these areas. Key Points on Power Systems - The power systems are transitioning towards high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology, with rapid iterations in external power supply technology expected to lead to large-scale applications by 2028 [1][2]. - Domestic companies have a technological advantage in HVDC and solid-state transformers (SST), positioning them well in the market [1][2]. - The demand for transformers is strong due to long-cycle upgrades in the power grid, making them a critical component in the supply chain [1][6]. - Alibaba and Tencent have adopted HVDC technology, with the overseas market expected to initiate 800V projects by 2026, marking the arrival of the direct current era [1][7]. - The global investment in power grids is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5%, reaching a total capital expenditure of $650 billion by 2035 [1][18]. Key Points on Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is expected to see production reach 20,000 to 30,000 units by 2025, with domestic demand accounting for about 20,000 units [1][2]. - 2026 is identified as a critical year for technology convergence and supplier confirmation, with Tesla planning to prepare for mass production by the end of 2026 [1][2]. - The supply chain for humanoid robots is rapidly expanding, with companies like Zhejiang Rongtai making significant progress in component integration [1][4][5]. - The market for humanoid robots is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in orders by 2026, driven by strong policy support and commercial applications [1][27]. Key Points on Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is expected to recover starting in the second half of 2024, with significant contributions from the lithium battery industry and other OEM sectors [1][34]. - Domestic industrial control companies are actively exploring overseas markets, with companies like Inovance competing directly with Siemens [1][35]. - The focus on humanoid robots within the industrial control sector is increasing, with companies leveraging their technological advantages for future production phases [1][35]. Additional Insights - The global power grid construction faces bottlenecks, including supply chain issues, slow equipment expansion, and labor shortages, which may hinder rapid resolution of supply-side problems [1][17]. - The transformer market is experiencing a "super cycle," with demand driven by renewable energy and data centers, leading to a significant backlog of orders [1][19][20]. - The competitive landscape for power equipment companies shows that domestic firms like Siyuan are gaining market share, with room for valuation improvement compared to international counterparts [1][21]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include: - AIDC: Sunshine Sifang, Mai Mi, Zhongheng Hongfa, Liangxin - Humanoid Robots: Sanhua, Inovance, Rongtai, Keda Li, Weichuang, Zhenyu, Leisai, Beite, Sihong, Xinjie - Power Grid: Siyuan, Pinggao, XJ Electric, West Electric, Samsung, Haixing, Nanrui [1][36].

Core Insights - The overall judgment indicates that both domestic and overseas AI-driven demand will continue to grow, leading to stock price performance in the AIDC industry. The overseas market, particularly in the U.S., is experiencing tight supply and demand for power equipment, which presents opportunities for domestic supply chains to expand internationally. Additionally, domestic capital expenditure on power grids is steadily increasing [3]. AIDC Power Supply: Continuous Beta and Clear Industry Trends - The capital expenditure of major overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) is expected to continue increasing, driving high demand for AIDC. The total capital expenditure of the four major overseas CSPs (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) is projected to grow at rates of 34% in 2021, 20% in 2022, -7% in 2023, and 55% in 2024, with a significant increase of 71% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11]. - Domestic CSPs have also seen a resurgence in capital expenditure, with a staggering 184% year-on-year growth in 2024 and 87% in the first three quarters of 2025 [13]. - The power consumption of AI servers is expected to rise significantly, with cabinet power levels projected to exceed 200kW in the near future, indicating a need for technological upgrades in both internal and external power supplies [20][25]. - The transition from three-level to two-level voltage reduction in internal power supplies is anticipated, which will streamline power supply processes [28]. - External power supplies are shifting from UPS to HVDC and SST solutions, reflecting a clear trend towards direct current and medium voltage systems [32]. Power Equipment Export: Continuous High Demand - The U.S. has seen a rapid increase in new power installations since 2020, with growth rates of 1.20%, 2.42%, 0.98%, 2.14%, and 3.47% from 2020 to 2024, indicating a robust demand for power equipment [59]. - China's transformer exports reached 46.5 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, marking a 40.20% year-on-year increase, with other power equipment exports also showing significant growth [77]. Domestic Power Grid: Continued Investment and Recovery - The approval of ultra-high voltage direct current projects is progressing steadily, with a rich pipeline of projects expected to drive growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [81]. - The total bidding amount for power grid projects has reached 78.7 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 20% year-on-year increase, significantly surpassing the 7.61% growth rate of 2024 [84]. - The domestic smart meter replacement cycle is expected to smooth out, with a projected increase in bidding quantities in 2026-2027 as new standards are introduced [90].

Core Insights - North America is experiencing a power shortage, which is beneficial for the power equipment industry within the overseas supply chain [1] - The development of power generation, energy storage, and transmission & distribution sectors is expected to grow [1] - In 2024, 20 new DC transmission lines are projected to deliver 705.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with renewable energy accounting for 56.8%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The importance of grid equipment in the absorption of clean energy is highlighted [1] - The high demand for data centers is driving the transition to Solid State Transformer (SST) technology, leading to sustained growth in power equipment demand [1] - The industry is benefiting from the expansion of overseas energy infrastructure and structural opportunities in domestic ultra-high voltage and energy storage sectors [1] - The Grid ETF (561380) tracks the Hang Seng A-share Power Grid Equipment Index, which includes listed companies involved in key areas such as transmission and transformation equipment and grid automation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The North American electricity shortage is positively impacting the power equipment industry within the overseas supply chain, particularly in the generation, storage, and transmission sectors [1] Group 1: Power Generation and Storage - Demand in the energy storage sector continues to grow steadily [1] - The advancement of Solid State Transformer (SST) technology is gaining attention, with companies like Sifang Co., Ltd. being highlighted [1] Group 2: AI Data Centers and Cooling Technology - The power demand from AI Data Centers (AIDC) is increasing, benefiting power equipment companies [1] - The application of liquid cooling technology is also driving the development of companies such as Invec [1] Group 3: Mechanical ETF and Industry Index - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812), which selects listed companies involved in industrial automation and engineering machinery [1] - The index primarily covers companies with high technical capabilities and market competitiveness, reflecting the overall performance of quality companies in the mechanical equipment industry [1] - The index style leans towards a balanced allocation of growth and value [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "stronger than the market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The energy consumption and power demand of data centers are high and concentrated, leading to increased electricity costs, with global data center electricity demand expected to reach 415 TWh in 2024, accounting for approximately 1.5% of global electricity consumption [2][10] - The Solid State Transformer (SST) market is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing energy demands of data centers, with an estimated global SST demand value of approximately 11.5 billion yuan by 2027 [2][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of new power devices like SiC and GaN in enhancing the efficiency and power density of SST systems, which are crucial for meeting the high power requirements of modern data centers [2][30] Summary by Sections Industry Background - The AI market is rapidly growing, with projections indicating a market size of approximately $3.68 trillion by 2034, making data centers a core infrastructure for AI applications [6] - Data centers face challenges such as high energy consumption, high power requirements, and high electricity costs, with the AIDC's IT energy consumption expected to grow significantly from 55.1 TWh in 2024 to 146.2 TWh by 2027 [10][11] Power Supply Trends - The trend towards high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and green electricity connections is becoming mainstream to address the high power demands and reduce energy losses in data centers [22][26] SST Characteristics - SST systems utilize new power devices and high-frequency transformers to achieve high efficiency and integration, significantly reducing the footprint compared to traditional UPS systems [30][43] - The materials cost of SST is primarily concentrated in power devices and high-frequency transformers, with IGBT and high-frequency transformers being the main components [52] Market Structure - The SST market is dominated by overseas manufacturers, but domestic brands are gradually increasing their market share, particularly in the context of China's growing data center infrastructure [53][56] - Key international players in the SST manufacturing sector include companies like Eaton, Delta, and ABB, which hold over 60% of the market share [56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the production of SiC and GaN power devices, as well as those developing high-frequency transformers, as they are expected to benefit from the growing demand for SST systems [2][36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - The demand for humanoid robots is expected to surge due to advancements in AI technology and domestic companies' efforts in cost reduction, leading to significant market opportunities for early movers [2][14] - The domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) market is experiencing robust growth, with sales expected to continue rising due to new model launches and seasonal demand, achieving over 50% market penetration [3][18] - The global energy storage market is entering a high prosperity phase, driven by increasing demand for energy storage solutions and supportive government policies [4][31] - The overseas power equipment market is anticipated to maintain high demand due to urgent upgrades in power grids and the rising need for AI electrical equipment [8] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The completion of the IPO guidance for Yushu Technology indicates a strong market potential for humanoid robots, with significant domestic demand for core components [2][14] - Major companies are entering the humanoid robot space, enhancing the industry's growth prospects, particularly in the T-chain and domestic supply chains [15][16] New Energy Vehicles - October saw a year-on-year increase in NEV sales, with production and sales reaching 1.772 million and 1.715 million units respectively, marking a 21.1% and 20.0% increase [19] - The introduction of new technologies, such as solid-state batteries and high-performance materials, is expected to drive further growth in the NEV sector [20][21] Energy Storage - The global energy storage battery shipments reached 428 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, a 90.7% increase year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [31] - The implementation of compensation policies for energy storage projects is expected to enhance project profitability and stimulate market growth [30][31] Power Equipment - The urgent need for power grid upgrades in Europe and North America is creating significant opportunities for domestic power equipment manufacturers [8][9] - The price of energy meters has rebounded significantly due to new regulations, suggesting potential recovery in profitability for meter manufacturers [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue growth in the AIDC segment, with a focus on the progress of its SST technology [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.194 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 8.25% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 486 million yuan, up 20.27% year-on-year [1][3] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 26.08%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 9.29%, up 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.61% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 221 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.92% [1] - The company’s overseas market revenue accounted for over 30% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, with exports reaching 1.59 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 711 million yuan, 1.043 billion yuan, and 1.376 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 59.6, 40.7, and 30.8 [3][4] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 8.78 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.2% [4]