Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on bank stocks, recommending a "Buy" rating for the sector, with expectations that stock prices will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [86]. Core Insights - The current rally in bank stocks is primarily driven by state-owned capital, with significant investments from central financial institutions and a shift in foreign capital's stance towards net inflows [30][12]. - The report highlights a strategic opportunity for bank stocks due to their stable performance, high dividends, and the backing of national credit, positioning them as a key asset class in the market [44][42]. - The anticipated recovery in bank stock valuations is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and addressing local government debt, which are expected to enhance asset quality [60][62]. Summary by Sections 1. State-Owned Capital as the Engine of Bank Stock Rally - The bank stock market has seen a continuous rise since 2023, with state-owned banks leading the charge, followed by a broader rally in various bank types in 2024 and 2025 [10][30]. - In 2023, net inflows from ETFs, state-owned capital, and financing funds were significant, while foreign and insurance funds experienced net outflows [12][30]. 2. Restructuring Logic of Equity Finance - The report discusses how state-owned capital's investment in bank stocks serves to stabilize financial markets and provide a buffer against systemic risks, with bank stocks representing over 14% of the A-share market [36][34]. - The focus on equity finance is seen as a means to supplement declining land transfer revenue, with high dividend yields making bank stocks attractive compared to low-yield government bonds [42][44]. 3. Funding Landscape - Long-term Capital as a Stabilizing Force - The report anticipates that insurance and public funds will continue to support bank stocks, with a projected influx of over 1 trillion yuan from insurance capital into the A-share market [54][51]. - The shift in insurance capital from net outflows to inflows in early 2025 indicates a growing interest in bank stocks as a viable investment [52][54]. 4. Fundamental Improvements - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and addressing local government debt are expected to enhance the asset quality of banks, leading to a revaluation of bank stocks [60][62]. - Innovations in credit expansion and technology are anticipated to provide new growth opportunities for the banking sector [63][66]. 5. Policy Environment - Interest Margins Expected to Rebound - The report notes that recent asymmetric interest rate cuts signal a turning point in the excessive benefits provided to the real economy, suggesting a potential rebound in interest margins [70][73]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to ensure the health of the banking sector while balancing support for economic growth [73][74]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on bank stocks with high dividend yields and strong operational efficiency, highlighting specific banks such as China Merchants Bank, Changshu Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank as favorable investment targets [80][76].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on June 10, with defensive sectors like banking leading the gains, as evidenced by the Tianhong Bank ETF (515290) rising by 1.29% and reaching a new high since its listing [1] - Multiple banks have announced dividend distributions, with 11 banks having completed their year-end dividend distributions by June 6, 2024, indicating an earlier payout schedule compared to previous years [1] - The Tianhong Bank ETF closely tracks the CSI Bank Index, which consists of up to 50 banking stocks, reflecting the overall performance of the banking sector [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan's latest report, the banking sector has experienced a recovery since the end of 2023, with a cumulative increase of 55%, driven primarily by valuation recovery and supported by high dividend yields [2] - Guotou Securities emphasizes that valuation changes have a more significant and lasting impact on banks compared to minor performance changes, with ongoing trends since 2021 expected to continue driving returns in the banking sector [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of trade tensions between the US and China, noting that after the US initiated tariff threats in March 2018, multiple high-level talks occurred, but the US frequently changed its stance, leading to a breakdown in negotiations and escalation of conflicts [2][29] - China's trade surplus has been increasing since 2020, with a projected total trade surplus of $1,105.3 billion by April 2025, compared to an average of $385.1 billion from 2018 to 2019 [2][29] - The report suggests that the domestic industrial production index is recovering, with specific sectors like methanol and polyester filament showing improvement, while others like Shandong refining and tires are declining [2][29] Group 2 - The report discusses the Chinese government's comprehensive financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including initiatives to boost the digital economy, with a target for the core digital economy to account for over 10% of GDP by 2025 [3] - The development of multimodal large models in technology is emphasized, with companies like ByteDance and Alibaba making significant advancements in AI capabilities [3] - The report indicates that the self-sufficiency strategy remains a long-term focus, driven by national policies and the need for domestic supply chain resilience, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on imports from the US [4][6] Group 3 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors with low valuations, particularly in defense, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, while suggesting a focus on the rhythm of industry development [6] - The report notes that the semiconductor industry is expected to see continued growth, driven by advancements in AI and the release of new products, particularly in the context of AI glasses and storage solutions [21][22] - The report highlights the performance of the REITs market, with a focus on infrastructure projects and the increasing activity in the sector, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank with a target price of 9.59 CNY, corresponding to a 0.91x PB for 2025 [5]. Core Views - Changshu Bank focuses on serving small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, emphasizing a "small and scattered" approach to deepen its presence in the inclusive finance sector [1][2]. - The bank benefits from a strong net interest income, with significant potential for improvement in non-interest income [2]. - The bank's asset quality is robust, supported by prudent risk control and sufficient provisioning, which enhances its ability to maintain stable dividends and internal capital replenishment [2][4]. - The macroeconomic policies promoting consumption and rural development are expected to favorably impact the bank's future growth [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Advantages - Jiangsu Province, where Changshu Bank is located, shows strong economic growth, with a GDP of 13.7 trillion CNY in 2024, ranking second nationally with a growth rate of 6.85% [12][15]. - Changshu City is strategically positioned in the Yangtze River Delta, contributing significantly to regional industrial chains and financial activities [2][31]. 2. Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is primarily derived from net interest income, with projections indicating a net profit growth rate of 12.67%, 12.60%, and 12.17% for 2025-2027 [4]. - The bank's financial metrics for 2025 include an expected operating income of 117 billion CNY and a net profit of 43 billion CNY [4]. 3. Business Strategy - Changshu Bank has established a broad network of branches, with 170 branches as of 2024, focusing on local markets while expanding into other regions through village and town banks [49][50]. - The bank's strategy includes leveraging its "investment management bank" qualifications to acquire smaller banks, facilitating future credit business expansion [2][4]. 4. Future Outlook - The bank's digital transformation strategy aims to enhance its operational efficiency and service delivery, with a focus on small and micro-loans [44][45]. - The bank's commitment to supporting rural and small business financing aligns with national policies aimed at promoting economic development in these sectors [51].

强于大市 银行业周报 存款利率调降稳定息差 按申万一级行业分类标准，银行板块本周上涨 0.04%，上周上涨 0.61%，银 行板块涨跌幅由高到低排名 18/31，较上周排名下降 10 位。个股方面 A 股 42 家银行有 26 家上涨。拉长时间来看，年初至今银行板块涨幅 7.70%，在全行 业中排名第四，红利仍然是银行的主线，关注银行股投资价值，建议关注招 商银行、农业银行。 银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 4 日 5 月 20 日，六家国有大行及招商银行、光大银行率先下调了存款挂牌利 率，随后几日，其余股份行以及部分城农商行纷纷下调利率，目前仅郑 州银行尚未跟进调降存款利率。本次调降中，五大行活期利率下调 5 bp 至 0.05%；定期整存整取 3 个月期、半年期、1 年期、2 年期均下调 15bp， 分别为 0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；3 年期和 5 年期均下调 25 bp， 分别至 1.25%和 1.30%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息三种期限均 下调 15 bp。7 天期通知存款利率下调 15 bp 至 0.30%。 5 月 7 日央行宣布要"实施好 ...

证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 可转债代码：113062 可转债简称：常银转债 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. （注册地址：江苏省常熟市新世纪大道 58 号） 公开发行 A 股可转换公司债券 受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 债券受托管理人 二〇二五年五月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"） 《江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 2021 年公开发行 A 股可转换公司债券之 受托管理协议》（以下简称"《受托管理协议》"）《江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有 限公司公开发行 A 股可转换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"） 《江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告》等相关公开信息披露 文件、第三方中介机构出具的专业意见等，由本期债券受托管理人中信证券股份 有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"）编制。中信证券对本报告中所包含的从上述 文件中引述内容和信息未进行独立验证，也不就该等引述内容和信息的真实性、 准确性和完整性做出任何保证或承担任何责 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in non-interest income and maintained prudent asset quality management [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.81% year-on-year [4][5]. - The total asset scale at the end of Q1 was 389.015 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.67%, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The net interest margin for the quarter was 2.61%, a decrease of 22 basis points year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q1 investment income and fair value changes amounted to 471 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, outperforming industry levels [5]. - The net commission income reached 71 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 495.23% [5]. Asset Quality - The company maintained a stable overall asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% at the end of Q1, down 1 basis point from the previous quarter [5]. - The company continues to adopt a cautious approach, increasing provisions, with asset impairment losses rising by 13% year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company expects further downward pressure on interest margins due to a new round of interest rate cuts, which will benefit its deposit structure primarily composed of personal deposits [8]. - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates operating revenues of 11.712 billion, 12.225 billion, and 13.570 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.238 billion, 4.687 billion, and 5.214 billion yuan [8][29].

| 证券代码：601128 | 证券简称：常熟银行 | 公告编号：2025-023 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113062 | 转债简称：常银转债 | | 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司关于 公开发行 A 股可转换公司债券 2025 年度跟踪评级结果的公告 2025年5月28日 前次债项评级："AAA"，主体评级："AAA"，评级展望：稳定 本次债项评级："AAA"，主体评级："AAA"，评级展望：稳定 重要内容提示： 根据本次评级结果，本行A股可转换公司债券（以下简称"常银转债"， 代码"113062"）仍可作为债券质押式回购交易的质押券 根据《上市公司证券发行管理办法》等有关规定，本行委托信用评级机构中 诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司（以下简称"中诚信"）对本行2022年9月公开 发行的"常银转债"进行了跟踪信用评级。 本行前次主体信用评级结果为"AAA"；"常银转债"前次信用评级结果为 " ...

江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 编号：信评委函字[2025]跟踪 0257 号 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 声 明 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 2025 年 5 月 27 日 2 ◼ 业务主要集中在综合经济实力雄厚的常熟市及长三角地区，发达的区域经济和良好的信用环境为其业务开展创 造了良好的运营环境，在常熟市的存贷款市场份额均居同业首位，在当地金融体系具有重要的地位 ◼ 拓展域外机构，有利于扩大业务发展空间、分散区域集中度 ◼ 信贷客户较为分散且小微信贷技术较为成熟，资产质量较为稳定 ◼ 个人存款和定期存款占比较高，存款稳定性较好 ◼ 主要服务的小微客户抗风险能力较弱，考虑到宏观经济增长仍面临多重因素挑战，未来需关注其资产质量的迁 徙情况 ◼ 经营所在区域市场竞争激烈，息差持续收窄对盈利带来不利影响 项目负责人：王钰莹 yywang01@ccxi.com.cn 项目组成员：王丽君 ljwang@ccxi.com.cn 王骁雄 xxwang@ccxi.com ⚫ 本次评级为委托评级，中诚信国际及其评估人员与评级委托方、评级对象不存在任何其他影响 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's non-interest income performance is strong, and asset quality management is prudent [1][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.81% year-on-year [4][5]. - The total asset scale at the end of Q1 was 389.015 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.67%, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a Q1 investment income and fair value changes of 471 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, outperforming industry levels [5]. - The net interest margin for Q1 was 2.61%, a decrease of 22 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to lower loan rates and a decline in the proportion of high-yield personal loans [5][6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q1 was 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.56%, down 10.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The company continues to adopt a cautious approach, increasing provisions, with asset impairment losses rising by 13% year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The report projects operating revenues for 2025-2027 to be 11.712 billion, 12.225 billion, and 13.570 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.238 billion, 4.687 billion, and 5.214 billion yuan [6][8]. - The company maintains a strong capital position, with a projected PB ratio of 0.82, 0.73, and 0.66 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8].