股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

新春伊始，少儿理财的"竞技场"准时在银行圈内敲响战鼓。 红红火火的压岁钱不仅是春节的节庆符号，在金融机构眼中，更是零售金融撬动家庭资产配置的抓手。 信风注意到，如今各家银行并非仅仅停留在营销造势，而是将其沉淀为体系化的运营模式，这一点在头 部城商行、股份行乃至国有大行身上体现得尤为充分。 以北京银行为例，该行在儿童金融赛道的布局具有较强的代表性，其核心载体是自2022年推出的专 属"小京卡"。 在近期的春节营销中，北京银行推出了起存门槛仅1000元、利率具有明显优势的"小京压岁宝"，其三年 期定期存款利率达到1.75%，较该行同期限一般存款利率有显著上浮； 这种打法旨在通过实物卡片满足儿童的专属感，同时用手机银行"压岁钱账本"提升家长APP的活跃度。 本质上这也是在存量博弈时代，通过精细化客群运营来提前锁定未来的优质客户。 放眼全行业，这种"高收益、低门槛"存压岁钱的引流策略已成共识： 例如，广西北部湾银行推出的"梦想储蓄1号"，三年期利率高达1.9%，50元即可起存； 这种定向的利率红包，反映出银行对低成本、高粘性负债的渴求。 将视线转向以财富管理见长的招商银行，其策略则更侧重于生态化与场景渗透。 例如，招 ...

【文/羽扇观金工作室】 春节假期刚过，银行间一场围绕孩子的客户争夺战悄然升温。从国有大行到城农商行，多家银行在节前 就推出了针对未成年人的储蓄及理财服务，试图把孩子们春节收到的压岁钱，沉淀为银行的长期存款。 工商银行的"宝宝卡"、招商银行App内的"金小葵"专区、北京银行的"小京卡"......各家机构的产品设计各 有侧重。不少网点在春节期间迎来了带孩子办理开户业务的家长潮。驱动这一热潮的，不只是节日营销 惯例。随着家庭理财观念趋于理性，越来越多家长愿意通过规范的金融工具帮助孩子打理压岁钱，同时 培养孩子的财商意识。 而在银行自身经营层面，净息差持续收窄、揽储压力不断加大的背景下，压岁钱所代表的低成本、长留 存资金，其价值正被银行重新审视和发掘。 各路银行各显其能，利率倒挂背后是差异化的竞争逻辑 这场儿童金融竞争中，各家银行的打法并不相同，但有一点趋同——都在努力把产品做得更有辨识度。 国有大行凭借网点规模与品牌沉淀，选择打全面战。工商银行推出的"宝宝卡"针对儿童压岁钱储蓄，即 使存入金额较低，也可享受接近大额存款的利率优惠。以存款5000元为例，一般客户三年期存款利率为 1.25%，而"宝宝卡"客户三年期存 ...

《金融时报》记者采访时发现，春节前后，多家银行密集推出了儿童专属金融产品与服务，以利率上浮、特色权益、亲子共管等方式，竞相争抢"小客 户"，深度挖掘儿童金融这片"新蓝海"。 例如，在招商银行（600036）"金小葵管家服务"中，该行一年期存款年化利率为1.3%，两年期存款利率为1.4%，均高于该行普通定期存款利率；华夏银 行"阳光成长计划"为未成年群体提供存款专属服务，旗下的"月成长龙安3年"年利率达1.75%，起存金额仅50元，兼顾灵活性与收益性。 城商行的表现也颇为亮眼，北京银行针对孩子压岁钱推出了特色存款"小京压岁宝"，其中，2年期、3年期存款利率分别为1.60%、1.75%，较该行普通定 期存款利率均有不同程度上浮。 "让孩子的压岁钱成为成长路上的第一笔财富，见证宝贝的每一步成长！"2月6日，北京农商银行也推出了"阳光宝贝卡专属储蓄产品"，1年期、2年期、3 年期定期存款起存金额均为1000元，年利率分别为1.5%、1.6%、1.75%，而同期限定期存款挂牌利率分别为1.15%、1.2%、1.3%，利率优势显著。 如东农商银行还面向18周岁以下青少年推出了压岁钱定制存单，将1万元起存的一年期存款利率设 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

2月23日（正月初七），从老家返京的程程和妈妈兴致勃勃地来到银行，办理了自己人生的第一笔存款业务。过去，程程的压岁钱往往以两种方式终结：要 么被父母"代管"后悄然并入家庭日常开支，要么静静躺在钱包里，没有任何升值。 程程妈妈登陆小京卡（北京银行发行的儿童借记卡）管理账户，发现孩子名下的钱比大人的钱更"值钱"。 在北京银行针对儿童客群推出的"小京卡"及"小京压岁宝"专区，小京卡用户3年期定存利率为1.75%，起存金额1000元，最大存入金额50万元；2年期和1年期 定存利率分别为1.60%、1.50%，起存金额同样为1000元。 程程妈妈查询北京银行官网发现，该行3年期整存整取挂牌利率为1.30%。这意味着，如果把程程1万元的压岁钱存入小京卡，3年后到期利息可达525元，比 大人的定存利息高出不少。 由于手头恰好有2万元闲置资金，程程妈妈萌生了一个念头，何不一起存入孩子的小京压岁宝账户？返京第一天，程程妈妈便带着孩子来到银行，将3万元都 存入了孩子的银行账户，3年到期后，利息可达1575元。 其实，程程们的选择有很多。 每逢春节前后，金融机构都会盯上儿童的压岁钱。马年春节的一大看点就是，多家银行推出了儿童专属存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted the 2025 assessment of systemically important banks, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1] Group 1: Assessment of Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1] - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group consisting of 11 banks, the second group having 4 banks, the third group with 2 banks, the fourth group containing 4 banks, and the fifth group having no banks [1] Group 2: Breakdown of Bank Groups - The first group includes: China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1] - The second group consists of: Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1] - The third group includes: Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1] - The fourth group comprises: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] - The fifth group currently has no banks included [1] Group 3: Future Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will implement additional regulatory measures for systemically important banks according to the "Regulations on Additional Supervision of Systemically Important Banks (Trial)" [1] - The aim is to enhance the synergy between macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision, ensuring the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks [1] - This initiative is intended to better support the high-quality development of the real economy [1]

对于银行推出的压岁钱专属产品，不少投资者表示很心动。小俊今年13岁，他告诉记者，每年的压岁钱 自己都攒起来，目前已有四万余元。当记者问及是否愿意办理专属银行卡存压岁钱时，小俊高兴地 说："当然愿意，还能挣点利息，反正这笔钱家长平时也不让我花，存起来正合适。"小俊的妈妈李女士 表示，自己对银行推出的压岁钱专属产品很满意，这类产品既可以培养孩子的攒钱习惯，又能提供一定 的利息收入。 业内人士认为，压岁钱专属产品既是银行应对揽储压力的营销手段，也是挖掘场景金融、增强客户黏性 的重要工具。 ● 本报记者 李蕴奇 新春佳节之际，孩子们的压岁钱是不少家庭绕不开的话题。多家银行敏锐捕捉到这一热点，在春节期间 推出压岁钱专属产品，积极围绕儿童压岁钱开展营销活动，通过存款利率上浮、赠送权益等方式吸引客 户。专家分析，压岁钱专属产品既可以缓解银行揽储压力，也可通过场景金融，深化客户对银行品牌的 认知，增强客户黏性。 专属产品集中登场 中国证券报记者近期走访银行网点发现，多家银行围绕儿童压岁钱推出不少特色产品。北京银行 （601169）推出儿童专属银行卡——"小京卡"。北京银行微信公众号显示，当该行客户通过"小京卡"办 理三年期定 ...

据经济观察报-经济观察网 2025年，中国手机银行用户规模见顶，行业从增量获取转入存量提升，金融 机构需极致效率与精准生态才能生存。艾瑞咨询报告显示，在存量博弈中，股份制银行选择差异化生存 路径，头部效应显著。招商银行以7185.4万MAU稳居股份制银行首位，超越部分国有大行，得益于其 在财富管理与智能交互领域的深耕。平安银行与中信银行构成第二梯队，MAU维持在2000万至3000万 区间，前者通过AI重构服务链路，后者依托消费生态整合。民生银行、光大银行等第三梯队及之后机 构，MAU滑落至1000万至2000万区间，生存空间逼仄。地方银行中，深耕本地的机构逆势增长。城商 行如江苏银行、北京银行等，MAU稳定在300万以上；农商行与农信社中，福建农信等MAU突破450 万，占据县域与农村流量腹地。民营银行处境严峻，2025年TOP50榜单几近绝迹，因缺乏线下网点、本 地生活生态，且获客成本高，在手机银行赛道失去竞争力。存量时代，生态与区域能力成为制胜关键。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese mobile banking market is entering a stage of stock competition in 2025, with monthly active users (MAU) stabilizing between 648 million and 739 million [2] - State-owned commercial banks dominate the market due to their ecological embedding advantages, with Agricultural Bank of China leading at 249 million MAU, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (194 million) and China Construction Bank (109 million) [2] - Private banks are expected to collectively exit the top 50 MAU rankings in 2025 due to a lack of offline branch support and local living ecosystems [2] Group 1: Major Players - Agricultural Bank of China has the highest MAU at 249 million, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with 194 million and China Construction Bank with 109 million, forming the first tier of banks [2] - China Bank and Postal Savings Bank have MAUs exceeding 50 million, constituting the second tier [2] - China Merchants Bank leads the joint-stock banks with 71.85 million MAU, while Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank form the second tier, with other joint-stock banks generally below 20 million MAU [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The core advantage of state-owned banks lies in their "full-scenario integration" capabilities, embedding services deeply into high-frequency life scenarios such as government affairs, social security, healthcare, and education [2] - Agricultural Bank of China extends its services to rural areas through intelligent service matching and customer customization, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China utilizes its "Gong Xiao Zhi" model for interactive service [2] - Regional banks like Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, and Ningbo Bank show stable performance by focusing on local markets, with some rural commercial banks like Fujian Rural Credit exceeding 4.5 million MAU, indicating the sustainability of localized operations in the stock market [2]