Group 1 - The core argument presented is the five-year cycle theory, indicating that years ending in "4" and "9" are typically bottom regions for the index, with significant recoveries expected in the following years [1][2] - The current market sentiment reflects a "slow bull" trend, with many institutions believing this phase will continue for at least another one to two years, potentially reaching new highs [1][2][3] - As of August 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3771.1 points, marking a ten-year high, with expectations of further upward movement towards the 4000-point mark [1][3] Group 2 - Investor anxiety is prevalent, with many recalling past bear markets, leading to erratic trading behaviors as they attempt to capitalize on market movements [2][3] - The current bull market is driven by new factors, including institutional reforms and changes in capital structure, rather than solely economic growth [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics differ from previous bull markets, as companies are now more inclined to distribute dividends rather than reinvest profits, indicating a shift towards long-term value holding [5][6] Group 3 - The concept of "deposit migration" is emerging, where residents are moving funds from low-yield savings into equity markets, which could further stimulate market growth [6][7] - Analysts believe that the potential for deposit migration is significant, especially as the economy enters a new recovery cycle, which could enhance market performance [7]

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：601198 证券简称：东兴证券 公告编号：2025-032 东兴证券股份有限公司 东兴证券股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2024 年 8 月 20 日成功发行东兴 证券股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资券（以下简称本期短期融资券），本 期短期融资券发行规模为人民币 15 亿元，票面利率为 1.95%，期限为 365 天， 兑付日期为 2025 年 8 月 20 日（详见公司于 2024 年 8 月 22 日登载于上海证券交 易所网站 www.sse.com.cn 的《东兴证券股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资 券发行结果公告》）。 特此公告。 东兴证券股份有限公司 董事会 ...

2025 年 8 月 20 日 ， 公 司 兑 付 了 本 期 短 期 融 资 券 本 息 共 计 人 民 币 1,529,250,000.00 元。 特此公告。 东兴证券股份有限公司 董事会 证券代码：601198 证券简称：东兴证券 公告编号：2025-032 东兴证券股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资券兑付完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 东兴证券股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2024 年 8 月 20 日成功发行东兴 证券股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资券（以下简称本期短期融资券），本 期短期融资券发行规模为人民币 15 亿元，票面利率为 1.95%，期限为 365 天， 兑付日期为 2025 年 8 月 20 日（详见公司于 2024 年 8 月 22 日登载于上海证券交 易所网站 www.sse.com.cn 的《东兴证券股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资 券发行结果公告》）。 1 2025 年 8 月 22 日 ...

东兴证券研报指出，山金国际上半年实现归属上市公司股东净利润15.96亿元，同比增长48.43%，创历 史同期新高；基本每股收益0.57元/股，同比增长46%。全球黄金价格中枢持续攀升，公司黄金储量增 厚，多金属采选流程不断优化，多因素共振推动公司业绩创历史新高。行业高景气度叠加生产流程优化 推升盈利，持续增储扩产提升业绩弹性。考虑到黄金传统的依靠纯金融属性定价方式逐渐弱化，而依靠 商品供需属性的定价方式明显强化，黄金金融属性决定价格弹性而供需属性决定价格韧性。黄金已进入 商品供需层面上结构性偏紧状态，价格将呈现趋势性的易涨难跌格局。认为黄金价格有望受益于避险溢 价、流动性溢价及汇率溢价的发酵而稳步提升；锌铅产品供需关系稳定，预计价格稳中有升。维持"推 荐"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates an increase in U.S. oil product supply and a decrease in crude oil exports as of August 8. Brent, WTI, and ESPO crude oil spot prices have declined, while OPEC and domestic crude oil prices have risen in July [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of August 8, Brent crude futures settled at $66.59 per barrel, down 2.99% month-over-month, while WTI futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down 4.04% [1] - ESPO crude spot price was $62.49 per barrel, reflecting a 4.23% decrease [1] - In July, OPEC crude spot price was $70.97 per barrel, up 1.78% month-over-month [1] - China's crude oil spot average price (Daqing) was $65.59 per barrel, down 0.80%, while prices for South China Sea and Shengli increased slightly [1] Group 2: U.S. Oil Supply Dynamics - U.S. refinery utilization rate increased to 96.4%, up 2.5 percentage points [2] - Weekly gasoline supply in the U.S. reached 9,000 thousand barrels per day, up 511 thousand barrels per day, a 6.02% increase [2] - Gasoline inventory decreased to 226,290 thousand barrels, down 6,577 thousand barrels, a 2.82% decline [2] - Total U.S. oil product supply was 21,356 thousand barrels per day, up 2,172 thousand barrels per day, an 11.32% increase [2] Group 3: Import and Export Trends - U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,214.25 thousand barrels per day in July, up 98.75 thousand barrels per day, a 1.61% increase [3] - U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3,207.00 thousand barrels per day, down 9.80% month-over-month [3] - China's crude oil imports were 47.20 million tons, down 269.00 thousand tons, a 5.39% decrease [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment reflects a "slow bull" trend, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its upward trajectory for at least another one to two years, despite retail investors' skepticism and anxiety about market peaks [3][6][7]. Market Sentiment - Retail investors are experiencing anxiety and hesitation due to past bear market memories, leading to erratic trading behaviors [5][7]. - There is a significant divide in opinions among retail investors regarding the market's future, with discussions centered around whether the 4000-point mark represents a new beginning or an impending end to the bull market [7][9]. Historical Analysis - Historical data indicates that bull markets often begin amid skepticism and end in excitement, with the "five-year cycle theory" suggesting that significant market lows occur in years ending in 4 and 9 [6][10]. - The analysis of past bull markets shows that the A-share index is expected to maintain an upward trend until at least 2027, based on historical patterns [6][10]. Market Drivers - The current bull market is driven by institutional reforms, optimized capital structures, and economic transitions, differing from previous bull markets that relied heavily on rapid economic growth and corporate profit improvements [10][11]. - The shift in corporate behavior towards dividend distribution rather than reinvestment is seen as a key factor in supporting long-term market value [10][11]. Capital Flow Dynamics - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is emerging, where residents are expected to shift their savings from low-yielding assets to equities, potentially enhancing market liquidity and supporting a sustained upward trend [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment presents a significant opportunity for equity markets to attract capital as traditional investment avenues like real estate become less favorable [12].

东兴证券发布研报称，7月全国快递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。分类型看，同城 件业务量同比增长8.8%，异地件增长16.1%。价格方面，7月行业单票价格环比6月略降，同比降幅缩窄 至5.3%。申通、韵达与圆通7月单票收入同比降幅分别为1.5%、3.5%和7.1%。7月以来国家邮政局加强 了反内卷的力度并强调行业自律，或有助于后续价格竞争的缓和，预计后续各地还会继续跟进反内卷的 相关政策，建议重点关注服务品质领先的行业龙头中通快递-W(02057)和圆通速递（600233） (600233.SH)。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 件量增速继续放缓，各企业增速分化 7月全国快递服务企业业务完成量164.0亿件，同比增长15.0%。分类型看，同城件业务量同比增长 8.8%，异地件增长16.1%。行业件量增速3月以来缓慢下行，与去年同期基数较高有一定关系，也与以 价换量模式边际效益递减有关。与6月类似，7月上市快递公司件量增速分化依旧明显。其中顺丰增速显 著领先行业均值，4月以来维持了30%以上的高增长。通达系快递中，圆通增速高于行业均值，申通及 韵达则低于行业均值。 圆通单票收入继续下压，申通韵达 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东兴证券8月21日发布研报称，给予川环科技（300547.SZ，最新价：49.9元）推荐评级。评级理由主要 包括：1）Q2 公司营收同环比增长，增速略低于预期；2）强成本控制能力，毛利率维持稳定，期间费 率略有提升；3）积极拓展新的业务领域，超算中心、储能等新领域液冷管路前景可期。风险提示：汽 车等行业终端需求不及预期、能源与原材料价格上涨超预期、新业务拓展进程不及预期以及重点客户订 单执行不及预期等风险。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, continuing to reach a 10-year high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.33%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.28% [1] Sector Performance - The cross-border payment concept saw significant gains, with Tianrongxin hitting the daily limit, and Zhongyou Capital and Sifang Jingchuang both rising over 9% [1] - Brokerage stocks experienced a broad rally, with Zhongyin Securities increasing by over 5%, and Hatou Securities and Dongxing Securities both rising over 3% [1] - The photovoltaic equipment sector faced adjustments, with Huamin Co. dropping over 4% and Yamaton falling over 3% [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet concept initially declined, with Jintian Co. falling over 8% and Dongfang Zirconium dropping over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork are expected to fluctuate in July 2025, with average prices at 35.73 CNY/kg, 14.91 CNY/kg, and 25.37 CNY/kg respectively, reflecting a mixed trend in price changes [1] Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In July, pig prices rose and then fell, with a slight rebound in early August before continuing to decline, leading to an average price of 13.82 CNY/kg by August 11 [1] - The supply side was influenced by the rhythm of supply, with group farms reducing output to support prices in early July, but facing pressure from increased supply from individual farmers later in the month [2] - The demand side saw weak consumption due to high summer temperatures, leading to sluggish sales for slaughterhouses [2] Capacity Change Trends - As of June, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, showing a slight increase of 0.02% month-on-month, with a narrowing growth rate [2] - Data from July indicated a 0.52% increase in breeding sow samples, while other data remained stable, suggesting a potential halt in growth since February [2] Policy Guidance - Since late May, policies have focused on "reducing production capacity, controlling weight, and limiting secondary fattening," signaling a stabilization of pig prices [3] - Stricter environmental regulations have been implemented, particularly in southern water network areas, which may lead to short-term price pressures but are expected to benefit long-term market stability [3] Future Market Outlook - The ongoing capacity regulation driven by policy is expected to be a key theme in the near future, with an anticipated increase in the elimination of outdated capacity [4] - High-quality production capacity in 2025 is expected to maintain profitability due to cost advantages, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies in the industry such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] July Sales Data of Listed Companies - In July, the average sales prices for major companies were as follows: Muyuan Foods at 14.30 CNY/kg, Wens Foodstuff Group at 14.58 CNY/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 14.31 CNY/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.44 CNY/kg, with respective month-on-month changes of 1.56%, 1.32%, 1.85%, and 1.83% [5] - The sales volume for these companies showed a mixed trend, with Muyuan Foods down by 10.40% to 750,000 heads, while Wens Foodstuff Group increased by 5.24% to 316,000 heads [5] - The average weight of pigs sold decreased across most companies, indicating a continued trend of reduced weights in the industry [5]