证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 中金公司（601995.SH） 优于大市 从券业整合看并购如何创造长期价值 并购价值创造体现在三方面：即以合理估值识别标的、以具备优势的价格完 成交易，以及通过整合实现潜在的协同增量。本次中金公司吸收合并东兴证 券、信达证券定价相对公允，契合政策导向，将显著增强中金公司的资本实 力、业务网络与综合竞争力，为其长期发展战略注入强劲动力。 合并将大幅增厚中金公司的资本与资产规模。静态测算显示，合并后公司总 资产将突破万亿元级别，归母净资产提升约 48%，行业排名跃升至第 4 位。 财务表现方面，基于 2025 年前三季度数据，合并将使中金公司营业收入增 长约 32%，行业排名提升至第 3 位；归母净利润增长约 45%，行业排名提升 至第 6 位。更重要的是，公司的资本结构将得到优化：这不仅增强了风险抵 御能力，也为未来运用杠杆扩张资产规模提供了广阔空间。 业务协同与整合前景：全方位优势互补，发展潜力充分。一是资本运用与自 营投资：合并后，公司杠杆率存在提升潜力（中金平均 5.4 倍 vs. 东兴、 信达平均 3.5 倍），资金运用效率有望提高。自营投资业务将融合中金控制 ...

同时，为保护中小投资者权益，中金公司A股及H股异议股东可行使收购请求权，东兴证券与信达证券 的异议股东享有现金选择权。此外，包括中央汇金、中国东方、中国信达在内的主要股东已出具长期承 诺，将其在本次交易中获得或原有的中金公司股份锁定36个月，彰显对整合后长远发展的信心。 不到一个月，中金公司（601995）换股吸收合并东兴证券（601198）、信达证券（601059）迎来重大进 展。 12月17日晚间，中金公司、东兴证券、信达证券同步披露重大资产重组预案并公告复牌事项。12月18 日，3家券商股票复牌，东兴证券涨停，中金公司、信达证券分别收涨3.70%、2.47%。 中信建投（601066）非银及金融科技首席分析师赵然表示，此次合并将催生一个在资产规模、净资本和 业务覆盖面上均位列行业前茅的券商。于行业而言，有望重塑行业竞争格局，加快一流投行建设脚步。 三方确定换股价格 根据3家公司披露的交易预案，本次交易定价以各方董事会决议公告日前20个交易日均价作为基准价 格，吸收合并方中金公司作为存续主体，换股价格为36.91元/股，被吸收合并方东兴证券换股价格为 16.14元/股，信达证券换股价格为19.15元/股。 ...

东兴证券发布研报称，计算机行业的投资应围绕"基本面、性价比、吸引力"三维框架展开。人工智能作 为科技周期的核心主线，在政策支持、技术演进与需求释放的三重驱动下，形成了"多维共振"。从基本 面来看，"十五五"规划将"科技自立自强"列为关键目标，为AI、"新质生产力"、信创等领域提供了有力 支持。 投资策略：聚焦AI主线，关注信创景气回升及新兴/未来产业结构机会 主线上全球在AI算力上持续投入，同时应用价值逐步释放。AI算力侧关注国产AI芯片(海光信息、寒武 纪、沐曦股份、摩尔线程等)、AI服务器(中科曙光（603019）、浪潮信息（000977）、华勤技术 （603296）等)、液冷温控(曙光数创、英维克（002837）等)及智算服务(紫光股份（000938）、商汤、 华为产业链等)。AI应用侧重点布局AI Agent与端侧智能，AI Agent正从Copilot向自主决策演进，在金 融、coding、营销等高人力成本行业具有显著降本增效潜力；端侧智能受益于豆包手机等新品催化，AI 眼镜、陪伴机器人等硬件加速放量。推荐金山办公、同花顺（300033）、中科创达（300496）、科大讯 飞（002230）等公司。 ...

不到一个月，中金公司换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券迎来重大进展。 12月17日晚间，中金公司、东兴证券、信达证券同步披露重大资产重组预案并公告复牌事项。12月 18日，3家券商股票复牌，东兴证券涨停，中金公司、信达证券分别收涨3.70%、2.47%。 中信建投非银及金融科技首席分析师赵然表示，此次合并将催生一个在资产规模、净资本和业务覆 盖面上均位列行业前茅的券商。于行业而言，有望重塑行业竞争格局，加快一流投行建设脚步。 三方确定换股价格 根据3家公司披露的交易预案，本次交易定价以各方董事会决议公告日前20个交易日均价作为基准 价格，吸收合并方中金公司作为存续主体，换股价格为36.91元/股，被吸收合并方东兴证券换股价格为 16.14元/股，信达证券换股价格为19.15元/股。其中，东兴证券相对于基准有26%溢价。 根据上述价格，东兴证券、信达证券与中金公司A股的换股比例分别为1:0.4373与1:0.5188。东兴证 券与信达证券全部A股参与换股，以此计算，中金公司预计将新发行A股约30.96亿股。业内人士认为， 该交易方案充分体现了两家公司资产价值，有利于平衡各方股东利益。 同时，为保护中小投资者权益，中 ...

万联证券指出，证券行业仍有广阔的增量业务空间，在全面深化资本市场改革，推动行业高质量发展进 程中，头部券商有望通过并购重组以及提高杠杆率进一步做优做强，中小机构在差异化特色化发展上也 有望迎来更多具体政策支持和引导，看好券商业绩继续提升、估值修复。具体标的上，建议关注头部券 商中估值相对较低的标的、并购重组潜在受益标的，以及在细分赛道上表现突出的中小券商。 有行情，买券商！券商ETF（512000）及其联接基金（A类 006098；C类007531）被动跟踪中证全指证 券公司指数，一键囊括49只上市券商股，是集中布局头部券商、同时兼顾中小券商的高效率投资工具。 券商ETF（512000）最新基金规模超400亿元，年内日均成交额超10亿元，为A股规模、流动性居前的顶 流券业ETF。 提醒：近期市场波动可能较大，短期涨跌幅不预示未来表现。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险 承受能力理性投资，高度注意仓位和风险管理。 数据来源于沪深交易所、公开资料等。 风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600155 | 华创云信 | 6.56 | -3.24% | 49.97万 | 3.32亿 | | 601236 | 红塔证券 | 8.20 | -1.91% | 14.74万 | 1.22亿 | | 601995 | 中金公司 | 35.53 | -1.50% | 27.59万 | 9.86亿 | | 601198 | 东兴证券 | 14.02 | -1.34% | 79.58万 | 11.26亿 | | 601066 | 中信建投 | 26.67 | -1.33% | 19.30万 | 5.18亿 | | 600864 | 哈投股份 | 6.69 | -1.33% | 19.87万 | 1.34亿 | | 601375 | 中原证券 | 4.32 | -1.14% | 21.53万 | 9359.75万 | | 002670 | 国盛证券 | 16.48 | -1.14% | 15.06万 | 2.49 Z | | 000712 | 锦龙股份 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the buying behavior of large funds by calculating the proportion of large order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to identify buy and sell orders based on bid and ask sequence numbers 2. Filter transactions by order size to identify large orders 3. Calculate the ratio of large buy order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount - Formula: $ \text{Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Large Buy Order Transaction Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator effectively captures the buying behavior of large funds[7] 2. Model Name: Net Active Buy Amount Ratio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures the active buying behavior of investors by calculating the net active buy amount as a proportion of the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to classify each transaction as either active buy or active sell based on the buy/sell flag 2. Calculate the net active buy amount by subtracting the active sell amount from the active buy amount 3. Compute the ratio of the net active buy amount to the total daily transaction amount - Formula: $ \text{Net Active Buy Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount} - \text{Active Sell Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator effectively captures the active buying behavior of investors[7] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio - **Top 10 Stocks by 5-Day Average**: - **East Securities (601198.SH)**: 88.1%, 99.6% time-series percentile[9] - **Shanghai Kaibao (300039.SZ)**: 86.3%, 100.0% time-series percentile[9] - **Sanxiang Impression (000863.SZ)**: 86.0%, 99.6% time-series percentile[9] - **Chongqing Steel (601005.SH)**: 86.0%, 78.7% time-series percentile[9] - **Jinzhengda (002470.SZ)**: 85.7%, 89.8% time-series percentile[9] - **Wanlong Optoelectronics (300710.SZ)**: 85.6%, 99.6% time-series percentile[9] - **Yasheng Group (600108.SH)**: 85.5%, 84.4% time-series percentile[9] - **Sinochem International (600500.SH)**: 85.5%, 90.4% time-series percentile[9] - **Chongqing Water (601158.SH)**: 85.2%, 96.7% time-series percentile[9] 2. Net Active Buy Amount Ratio - **Top 10 Stocks by 5-Day Average**: - **Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH)**: 26.2%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Bailong Oriental (601339.SH)**: 22.9%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Zijin Bank (601860.SH)**: 20.2%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Bailong Chuangyuan (605016.SH)**: 19.5%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Hengshun Vinegar (600305.SH)**: 17.8%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Qingfangcheng (600790.SH)**: 17.7%, 99.6% time-series percentile[10] - **Shandong Steel (600022.SH)**: 17.7%, 99.6% time-series percentile[10] - **Shengda Forestry (002259.SZ)**: 17.5%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Taoli Bread (603866.SH)**: 17.2%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Jiangsu Sopo (600746.SH)**: 16.8%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] 3. Broad-Based Indices - **5-Day Average Results**: - **Shanghai Composite Index**: Large Order Ratio 73.7% (82.0% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 2.2% (3.7% percentile)[12] - **SSE 50**: Large Order Ratio 71.7% (58.2% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 5.8% (92.6% percentile)[12] - **CSI 300**: Large Order Ratio 73.0% (41.0% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 2.9% (20.9% percentile)[12] - **CSI 500**: Large Order Ratio 73.8% (86.9% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 1.5% (3.3% percentile)[12] - **ChiNext Index**: Large Order Ratio 70.5% (6.1% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 0.1% (14.8% percentile)[12] 4. Industry-Level Analysis - **Top Industries by 5-Day Average**: - **Steel**: Large Order Ratio 79.0% (79.1% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 12.7% (0.8% percentile)[13] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: Large Order Ratio 77.1% (87.7% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 10.8% (3.3% percentile)[13] - **Food and Beverage**: Large Order Ratio 71.5% (95.5% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 10.1% (32.8% percentile)[13] - **Real Estate**: Large Order Ratio 78.7% (70.9% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 8.8% (9.8% percentile)[13] - **Consumer Services**: Large Order Ratio 75.8% (32.4% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 8.9% (13.9% percentile)[13] 5. ETF Analysis - **Top 10 ETFs by Large Order Ratio**: - **Haifutong Shanghai Urban Investment Bond ETF (511220.SH)**: 93.4%, 63.5% percentile[15] - **Fortune Military Industry ETF (512710.SH)**: 92.1%, 100.0% percentile[15] - **Guotai CSI A500 ETF (159338.SZ)**: 91.5%, 19.7% percentile[15] - **Guotai 10-Year Treasury ETF (511260.SH)**: 91.5%, 91.8% percentile[15] - **Penghua National Defense ETF (512670.SH)**: 90.7%, 99.6% percentile[15] - **Top 10 ETFs by Net Active Buy Ratio**: - **Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH)**: 18.2%, 99.6% percentile[16] - **Yinhua 5G Communication ETF (159994.SZ)**: 16.7%, 100.0% percentile[16] - **E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank ETF (512070.SH)**: 16.0%, 95.9% percentile[16] - **Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890.SH)**: 15.7%, 94.3% percentile[16] - **Fortune Agriculture ETF (159825.SZ)**: 15.2%, 96.7% percentile[16]

Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The last LPR quote for the year shows no change in both 1-year and 5-year rates, with only one interest rate cut in 2025 [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates three times this year, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points, contributing to the appreciation of the RMB against the USD [2][12] - This situation has reduced barriers for international capital flow into China and indicates significant monetary policy space for the upcoming year [13] Group 2: M&A Activity - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is set to absorb and merge with both Xinda and Dongxing Securities [3][14] - The merger involves a complex share exchange where 1 share of Dongxing will convert to 0.4373 shares of CICC, and 1 share of Xinda will convert to 0.5188 shares of CICC [15] - Current share prices indicate a discrepancy, with Dongxing's implied post-merger price at 15.77 CNY and Xinda's at 18.71 CNY, while their actual prices are 14.21 CNY and 17.85 CNY, respectively, showing a price difference of 9.89% and 4.6% [6][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The price difference arises from two factors: uncertainty regarding the execution of the merger and the time required for regulatory approvals [7][16] - If the merger is successful, the share prices of Xinda and Dongxing are expected to converge towards their implied merger prices as the execution date approaches [16] - Investors can consider strategies such as buying Xinda or Dongxing while shorting CICC to lock in the price difference, although this involves risks if the merger fails [7][16] Group 4: Cash Exit Options - Shareholders of Xinda and Dongxing have the option to choose cash instead of shares if they do not wish to become shareholders of CICC, which is a protective measure for shareholders [18] - The cash exit prices are set at 34.8 CNY for CICC, 17.79 CNY for Xinda, and 13.13 CNY for Dongxing, with hidden cash exit prices calculated based on the share exchange ratios [19] - Various strategies can be employed around these cash exit prices, including buying below the cash exit price and selling at the hidden cash exit price [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown strong performance this week, with notable developments in the brokerage sector, including the merger plans of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing and Xinda, indicating a further acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry. The insurance sector is also seeing regulatory advancements with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) seeking public opinion on the draft asset-liability management guidelines for insurance companies. The report suggests that the long-term outlook is positive, with improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery expected, making the sector increasingly attractive for investment [2][4]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have strong market positions and business models. Additionally, it highlights companies like New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their earnings elasticity and valuation levels [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.9% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.2%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 9.8%, but underperformed the CSI 300 by 6.3% [5]. - The average daily trading volume in the market decreased to 17,604.84 billion yuan, down 9.86% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 1.83%, down 19.91 basis points [5]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Key announcements include the merger plans of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, and the CBIRC's public consultation on insurance asset-liability management guidelines. The report also notes the upcoming dividend announcements from Huaxi Securities, CICC, and Shenwan Hongyuan [6][19]. Insurance Sector Insights - In October 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 548.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.99%. Life insurance premiums grew by 9.56%, while property insurance premiums increased by 4.02% [23][24]. - The total assets of insurance companies reached 40.59 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 35.68 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.68% increase [27][28]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights a decline in the overall equity market, with the CSI 300 index down 0.28% and the ChiNext index down 2.26%. The brokerage sector's investment assets are primarily in bonds, with equity investments comprising about 10%-30% [40][46]. - Margin trading balances decreased to 2.50 trillion yuan, down 0.34% week-on-week, indicating a cautious approach to stock pledge business due to previous credit risks [49]. Financing and Asset Management - In November 2025, equity financing reached 50.65 billion yuan, while bond financing totaled 706 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in financing activities [53]. - The report notes a rebound in the issuance of collective asset management products, with 4.387 billion units issued in November, up 4.1% from the previous month [55].

中国经济网北京12月22日讯杰美特（300868）(300868.SZ)今日收报28.48元，跌幅3.91%。 杰美特于2020年8月24日在深交所创业板上市，公开发行股份数量为3200万股，发行价格为41.26元/ 股。募集资金总额为132,032.00万元，扣除发行费用13,061.69万元后，募集资金净额为118,970.31万元， 其中超募资金总额为76,671.84万元。上述募集资金已于2020年8月14日到达公司募集资金专用账户。 上市次日，即2020年8月25日，杰美特盘中创下上市以来最高点95.60元。目前该股处于破发状态。 杰美特于2020年8月14日披露的招股说明书显示，该公司拟募集资金4.46亿元，拟分别用于移动智能终 端配件产能扩充项目、技术研发中心建设项目和品牌建设及营销网络升级项目。 杰美特的保荐机构为东兴证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人为彭丹、贾卫强。杰美特首次公开发行股票的 发行费用总计1.31亿元，其中，东兴证券股份有限公司获得保荐、承销费用1.12亿元。 ...