● 本报记者 赵中昊 胡雨 在建设金融强国的战略指引下，我国证券行业正迎来一轮"自上而下、政策驱动"的深度整合浪潮。近 日，中金公司（601995）宣布换股吸收合并东兴证券（601198）与信达证券（601059），交易完成后预 计总资产规模将跨越万亿元大关，一家新的"航母级"券商雏形初现。这仅是行业变局的缩影，2025年以 来，包括国泰君安与海通证券合并在内的多起重磅案例陆续落地。 业内人士认为，此轮并购旨在超越简单的规模叠加，其核心逻辑已从解决个体问题升级为服务国家战 略，证券行业发展模式从单纯的规模扩张转向追求功能协同与专业能力的跃迁，以期优化金融供给、锻 造一流投行，标志着行业步入以功能跃迁为核心的高质量发展新阶段。 行业并购风起云涌 头部券商格局生变 日前，中金公司吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券再迎实质性进展：中金公司正式宣布换股方式吸收合并东 兴证券及信达证券的方案，交易完成后预计总资产规模将超过万亿元，又一家"航母级"券商呼之欲出， 新一轮证券行业并购重组浪潮提速。 "不同于以往市场化自发整合，本轮证券行业并购浪潮是在建设金融强国和打造一流投行的战略指引下 推进的，呈现出'自上而下、政策驱动、目标明 ...

● 本报记者 赵中昊 胡雨 在建设金融强国的战略指引下，我国证券行业正迎来一轮"自上而下、政策驱动"的深度整合浪潮。近 日，中金公司宣布换股吸收合并东兴证券与信达证券，交易完成后预计总资产规模将跨越万亿元大关， 一家新的"航母级"券商雏形初现。这仅是行业变局的缩影，2025年以来，包括国泰君安与海通证券合并 在内的多起重磅案例陆续落地。 业内人士认为，此轮并购旨在超越简单的规模叠加，其核心逻辑已从解决个体问题升级为服务国家战 略，证券行业发展模式从单纯的规模扩张转向追求功能协同与专业能力的跃迁，以期优化金融供给、锻 造一流投行，标志着行业步入以功能跃迁为核心的高质量发展新阶段。 行业并购风起云涌 头部券商格局生变 日前，中金公司吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券再迎实质性进展：中金公司正式宣布换股方式吸收合并东 兴证券及信达证券的方案，交易完成后预计总资产规模将超过万亿元，又一家"航母级"券商呼之欲出， 新一轮证券行业并购重组浪潮提速。 据中国证券报记者不完全统计，2025年已有包括中金公司吸收合并前述两家券商在内的多起并购重组案 例取得进展。其中，国泰君安吸收合并海通证券、国信证券收购万和证券、浙商证券吸收合并国都 ...

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry in China has shown significant recovery in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities to serve the real economy and new productive forces, alongside a notable increase in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities marks a step towards building a first-class investment bank, while the industry continues to strengthen its overseas subsidiaries and deepen high-level openness [2][4][5]. Industry Development - The securities industry has increasingly demonstrated its functional capabilities, with total assets of 107 securities firms reaching 14.5 trillion yuan, a growth of over 10% from the end of 2024. Net assets rose to 3.3 trillion yuan, showing steady growth [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed securities firms reported a combined operating income of 419.56 billion yuan, with an average year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit of 169.29 billion yuan, reflecting an average increase of 88.68% [5]. - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has been completed, achieving a "1+1>2" effect, while other mergers, such as CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, are in progress [4][5]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector has shown signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing, mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border service upgrades. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan [7][8]. - The Hong Kong IPO market has rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.89 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [8]. - Mergers and acquisitions have become a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their services to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industrial integration and transformation [8]. Wealth Management - The wealth management business of securities firms has seen significant growth, with a total revenue of approximately 145.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 37.4% [11]. - Brokerage fee income reached 111.78 billion yuan, up 74.64%, while asset management fees were 33.25 billion yuan, showing a modest increase [11]. - The transition from earning trading commissions to management and service fees is evident, with over 90% of new accounts opened online and more than 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [13]. Asset Management - The asset management industry is undergoing a restructuring, with the total scale of private asset management products reaching 5.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [15]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses has been paused, with several firms withdrawing their applications, indicating a shift in focus towards private asset management strategies [16]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with firms expected to enhance their offerings in active management and client service [17]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has intensified, with significant deals such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing and Xinda Securities by CICC [18][19]. - Policies supporting the consolidation of leading firms aim to enhance core competitiveness and encourage differentiated development among smaller firms [19]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure by 2026, with a focus on integrating resources and enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese securities firms [19].

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government emphasizes a stable and progressive economic work approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for this year[3][10]. - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance through integrated stock and incremental policies[3][10]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is prioritized as a key task for next year, aiming to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides[5][17]. Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Recent policies include the release of the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits and the introduction of antitrust compliance guidelines for internet platforms[13][14]. - The 2026 national energy work conference has set key tasks, emphasizing the transition to green and low-carbon energy sources, with an expected addition of over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity[14]. Real Estate Policy - Shandong Province has introduced guidelines for a "housing old-for-new" program, proposing three models to encourage housing upgrades[15][16]. - The total urban housing demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be around 4.98 billion square meters[16]. Financial Regulation - The central financial committee stresses the importance of effectively managing financial risks related to local small and medium financial institutions and real estate enterprises, while also addressing local government financing platform debts[19][20]. - The merger plan for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities has been announced, marking a significant consolidation in the financial sector[20]. Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, with a voting outcome of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a cautious approach to future rate changes[24]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan has raised its rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat persistent inflation[24][25].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the non-bank financial sector, particularly highlighting the insurance and brokerage segments as having strong growth potential [1][3]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.90% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.17 percentage points. The insurance sector saw a significant rise of 7.03%, driven by asset under management (AUM) expansion and interest margin recovery, indicating a favorable market environment for insurance stocks [1][9]. - The brokerage sector also showed positive momentum with a 1.01% increase, supported by strategic mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to enhance market concentration and profitability [2][17]. - The banking sector experienced a modest increase of 1.00%, with expectations of improved credit growth driven by government policies and infrastructure investments [3][19]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's index rose by 7.03%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.30 percentage points. Key players like Ping An and China Pacific saw their stock prices reach new highs, reflecting strong market confidence [1][13]. - The growth in the insurance sector is attributed to the dual drivers of AUM expansion and interest margin recovery, which enhance investment income certainty. The sector is positioned for a critical recovery phase in both performance and valuation [16][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Pacific and New China Life [16][24]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's index increased by 1.01%, with notable developments including the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing and Xinda, which is expected to enhance CICC's market position [2][17]. - The report highlights a mismatch between profitability and valuation in the brokerage sector, suggesting potential for valuation recovery. Recommended stocks include large, low-valuation brokerages and those involved in mergers [18][17]. Banking Sector - The banking sector's index rose by 1.00%, with a focus on improving credit growth supported by government initiatives. The report emphasizes the transition from traditional investment models to a dual-driven approach focusing on both physical and human investments [19][21]. - Recommendations for the banking sector include focusing on high-quality regional banks and those with strong growth potential in government-related financing [23][19].

Macro Economic Overview - The economic performance in the first quarter may be affected by the later timing of the Spring Festival, suggesting that macro policies should consider early deployment [1][4] - The asset allocation order is recommended as follows: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency [1][5] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.28% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures fell by 1.09% [2][12] - Futures for coking coal rose by 7.92%, and iron ore main contracts increased by 2.24% [12] - The expected yield for bank wealth management products settled at 1.85%, and the annualized yield for Yu'ebao increased by 2 basis points to 1.02% [12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds declined by 1 basis point to 1.83%, with active ten-year government bond futures rising by 0.08% [12] Economic Data Insights - In November, industrial output increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 1.3% [20] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with real estate development investment down by 15.9% [21] - National fiscal revenue for the first eleven months reached 20.05 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8% year-on-year [21] Policy and Strategic Insights - The focus remains on the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies [4] - The upcoming economic work conference emphasizes the need to boost domestic demand as a strategic move for economic stability and security [22] - The central government aims to enhance consumption through various measures, including financial support for key sectors [23] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Stocks are recommended for overweight allocation, with attention to the implementation of 'incremental' policies [4][13] - Bonds are suggested for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][13] - Commodities are maintained at a standard allocation, with a focus on the progress of fiscal incremental policies [4][13] Market Trends and Sector Performance - The A-share market showed significant sector differentiation, with consumer sectors leading gains, while sectors like power equipment and electronic components faced declines [41][42] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with policies aimed at controlling inventory and promoting the construction of affordable housing [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance and brokerage sectors, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for both industries, indicating expected outperformance compared to the overall market [2][66]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on leading firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics [2][5]. - The insurance sector is poised for a systematic value reassessment, with significant regulatory changes expected to enhance asset-liability management practices [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,568.18 with a slight decline of -0.28% over the week, while the non-bank index rose by 2.90% [5]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 1.01%, 7.03%, and 1.39% respectively [5]. Key Data in Non-Banking Sector - As of December 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,033.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.23% compared to the previous month [41]. - The margin trading balance reached 24,993.66 billion yuan, an increase of 34.0% from the end of 2024 [15]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, marking a significant consolidation trend in the brokerage industry [2][29]. - The brokerage index's price-to-book ratio (PB) is currently at 1.38, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2]. Insurance Sector Insights - The new asset-liability management regulations are expected to significantly impact the insurance industry, emphasizing the need for effective risk management and alignment of assets and liabilities [2][17]. - The insurance sector index increased by 7.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.30 percentage points [2]. Investment Recommendations - For the brokerage sector, the report recommends focusing on top-tier firms such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive conditions [2]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance are highlighted for their potential in the ongoing value reassessment [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, particularly focusing on the insurance and brokerage industries, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on leading institutions benefiting from an optimized competitive landscape [2]. - The insurance sector is entering a new phase of asset-liability management, with the introduction of new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the stability and efficiency of insurance operations [2][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,568.18 with a slight decline of -0.28%, while the non-bank index rose by 2.90% [5]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 1.01%, 7.03%, and 1.39% respectively [5]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector's index (PB) is at 1.38 times, which is in the 44th percentile since 2018, indicating that valuations remain low [2]. - Recent mergers, such as the absorption of Dongxing and Xinda Securities by CICC, are seen as a new approach to consolidation in the industry, potentially increasing efficiency and concentration [2]. - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: leading firms with strong competitive advantages, firms with high earnings elasticity, and those with strong international business capabilities [2]. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance index rose by 7.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.30 percentage points [2]. - The new asset-liability management regulations aim to enhance governance structures and monitoring indicators, which are expected to significantly impact the insurance industry [19]. - Key management goals include matching the duration of assets and liabilities, ensuring liquidity, and improving cost-benefit alignment [19]. Important Data - As of December 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,033.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.23% from the previous month [46]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached 24,993.66 billion yuan, an increase of 34% compared to the end of 2024 [17]. Individual Company Highlights - China Pacific Insurance reported a total premium income exceeding 430 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [31]. - New China Life Insurance achieved a premium income of 188.85 billion yuan, marking a 16% increase year-on-year [32]. - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities is expected to streamline operations and enhance market positioning [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Views - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales proportion of savings products. The report anticipates improvements in both the liability and investment sides of the insurance business [46]. - The securities sector is undergoing transformation, which is expected to bring new business growth points, benefiting from a recovering market and favorable policy environment [46]. - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, providing a safety margin and a balanced risk-reward profile [46]. Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Recent Performance - From December 15 to December 19, 2025, all non-bank financial sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the insurance sector rising by 7.04%, multi-financial sector by 2.04%, and securities sector by 1.06%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 2.99% [11][12]. Securities Sector - Trading volume decreased month-on-month in December 2025, with the average daily trading amount for stock funds at 21,087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.09% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.91% [16]. - The margin balance reached 24,994 billion yuan, up 32.93% year-on-year and 34.04% since the beginning of the year [16]. - The report highlights the merger of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, which will result in a combined asset scale exceeding one trillion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry [20]. Insurance Sector - The report discusses the public consultation on new asset-liability management regulations, which aim to strengthen regulatory requirements and optimize long-term stock risk factor requirements [24]. - The insurance sector's valuation is currently between 0.67 and 1.01 times the 2025E P/EV, indicating it is at a historical low, thus maintaining an "Overweight" rating [32]. Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion yuan by June 2025, a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [32]. - The futures market experienced a significant increase in trading volume and value, with November 2025 figures showing a year-on-year increase of 13.54% in volume and 7.11% in value [39]. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial sectors, recommending companies such as China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CICC, and Tonghuashun [46].

12月19日，是东兴证券复牌的第二个交易日。在前一日收获涨停后，19日股价则有所调整，截至收 盘，最终报收14.39元/股，微跌0.35%。 而此前一日，相伴东兴证券9年之久的大股东山东高速公告称，根据相关会计准则及政策，拟在2025年 度对联营企业东兴证券对应的长期股权投资计提减值准备，预计减值准备金额约为6.9亿元。 据青岛荣晟企业管理咨询有限公司董事长、资深IPO顾问王立慧对证券时报·券商中国记者分析，山东高 速计提的6.9亿元减值，并非对东兴证券的投资交易"不划算"，而是在交易预案发布后，将其账面上"虚 高"的长期股权投资价值，向下调整到即将换入的中金公司股票的公允价值水平。这是一个必要的会计技 术处理，以确保财务报表反映交易的经济实质。 计提减值系会计上的计量调整 山东高速发布公告当日，即东兴证券复牌首日。12月17日，中金公司换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券 的预案出炉。其中，被吸收合并方东兴证券换股价格为16.14元/股，较基准价格溢价26%。以此计算， 东兴证券与中金公司A股的换股比例为1∶0.4373。 根据山东高速12月18日公告，基于中金公司吸收合并东兴证券的预案，为更加客观、公正地反映公 ...