Market Overview - On December 23, the securities sector declined by 0.33% compared to the previous trading day, with Huachuang Yuxin leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3919.98, up 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13368.99, up 0.27% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Bank of China Securities (601696) with a closing price of 14.55, up 2.46% and a trading volume of 1.1162 million shares, totaling 1.626 billion yuan [1] - GF Securities (000776) closed at 21.91, up 1.44% with a trading volume of 714,700 shares, totaling 1.571 billion yuan [1] - Notable decliners included: - Huachuang Yuxin (600155) closed at 6.56, down 3.24% with a trading volume of 499,700 shares, totaling 332 million yuan [2] - China International Capital Corporation (601995) closed at 35.53, down 1.50% with a trading volume of 275,900 shares, totaling 986 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 1.535 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 821 million yuan [2] - The main capital flow for selected stocks included: - Bank of China Securities had a net inflow of 86.0426 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 87.7168 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Industrial Securities (601377) saw a net inflow of 31.4879 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 49.1248 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the buying behavior of large funds by calculating the proportion of large order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to identify buy and sell orders based on bid and ask sequence numbers 2. Filter transactions by order size to identify large orders 3. Calculate the ratio of large buy order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount - Formula: $ \text{Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Large Buy Order Transaction Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator effectively captures the buying behavior of large funds[7] 2. Model Name: Net Active Buy Amount Ratio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures the active buying behavior of investors by calculating the net active buy amount as a proportion of the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to classify each transaction as either active buy or active sell based on the buy/sell flag 2. Calculate the net active buy amount by subtracting the active sell amount from the active buy amount 3. Compute the ratio of the net active buy amount to the total daily transaction amount - Formula: $ \text{Net Active Buy Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount} - \text{Active Sell Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ - **Model Evaluation**: This indicator effectively captures the active buying behavior of investors[7] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio - **Top 10 Stocks by 5-Day Average**: - **East Securities (601198.SH)**: 88.1%, 99.6% time-series percentile[9] - **Shanghai Kaibao (300039.SZ)**: 86.3%, 100.0% time-series percentile[9] - **Sanxiang Impression (000863.SZ)**: 86.0%, 99.6% time-series percentile[9] - **Chongqing Steel (601005.SH)**: 86.0%, 78.7% time-series percentile[9] - **Jinzhengda (002470.SZ)**: 85.7%, 89.8% time-series percentile[9] - **Wanlong Optoelectronics (300710.SZ)**: 85.6%, 99.6% time-series percentile[9] - **Yasheng Group (600108.SH)**: 85.5%, 84.4% time-series percentile[9] - **Sinochem International (600500.SH)**: 85.5%, 90.4% time-series percentile[9] - **Chongqing Water (601158.SH)**: 85.2%, 96.7% time-series percentile[9] 2. Net Active Buy Amount Ratio - **Top 10 Stocks by 5-Day Average**: - **Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH)**: 26.2%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Bailong Oriental (601339.SH)**: 22.9%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Zijin Bank (601860.SH)**: 20.2%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Bailong Chuangyuan (605016.SH)**: 19.5%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Hengshun Vinegar (600305.SH)**: 17.8%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Qingfangcheng (600790.SH)**: 17.7%, 99.6% time-series percentile[10] - **Shandong Steel (600022.SH)**: 17.7%, 99.6% time-series percentile[10] - **Shengda Forestry (002259.SZ)**: 17.5%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Taoli Bread (603866.SH)**: 17.2%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] - **Jiangsu Sopo (600746.SH)**: 16.8%, 100.0% time-series percentile[10] 3. Broad-Based Indices - **5-Day Average Results**: - **Shanghai Composite Index**: Large Order Ratio 73.7% (82.0% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 2.2% (3.7% percentile)[12] - **SSE 50**: Large Order Ratio 71.7% (58.2% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 5.8% (92.6% percentile)[12] - **CSI 300**: Large Order Ratio 73.0% (41.0% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 2.9% (20.9% percentile)[12] - **CSI 500**: Large Order Ratio 73.8% (86.9% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 1.5% (3.3% percentile)[12] - **ChiNext Index**: Large Order Ratio 70.5% (6.1% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 0.1% (14.8% percentile)[12] 4. Industry-Level Analysis - **Top Industries by 5-Day Average**: - **Steel**: Large Order Ratio 79.0% (79.1% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 12.7% (0.8% percentile)[13] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: Large Order Ratio 77.1% (87.7% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 10.8% (3.3% percentile)[13] - **Food and Beverage**: Large Order Ratio 71.5% (95.5% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 10.1% (32.8% percentile)[13] - **Real Estate**: Large Order Ratio 78.7% (70.9% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 8.8% (9.8% percentile)[13] - **Consumer Services**: Large Order Ratio 75.8% (32.4% percentile), Net Active Buy Ratio 8.9% (13.9% percentile)[13] 5. ETF Analysis - **Top 10 ETFs by Large Order Ratio**: - **Haifutong Shanghai Urban Investment Bond ETF (511220.SH)**: 93.4%, 63.5% percentile[15] - **Fortune Military Industry ETF (512710.SH)**: 92.1%, 100.0% percentile[15] - **Guotai CSI A500 ETF (159338.SZ)**: 91.5%, 19.7% percentile[15] - **Guotai 10-Year Treasury ETF (511260.SH)**: 91.5%, 91.8% percentile[15] - **Penghua National Defense ETF (512670.SH)**: 90.7%, 99.6% percentile[15] - **Top 10 ETFs by Net Active Buy Ratio**: - **Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH)**: 18.2%, 99.6% percentile[16] - **Yinhua 5G Communication ETF (159994.SZ)**: 16.7%, 100.0% percentile[16] - **E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank ETF (512070.SH)**: 16.0%, 95.9% percentile[16] - **Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890.SH)**: 15.7%, 94.3% percentile[16] - **Fortune Agriculture ETF (159825.SZ)**: 15.2%, 96.7% percentile[16]

Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The last LPR quote for the year shows no change in both 1-year and 5-year rates, with only one interest rate cut in 2025 [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates three times this year, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points, contributing to the appreciation of the RMB against the USD [2][12] - This situation has reduced barriers for international capital flow into China and indicates significant monetary policy space for the upcoming year [13] Group 2: M&A Activity - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is set to absorb and merge with both Xinda and Dongxing Securities [3][14] - The merger involves a complex share exchange where 1 share of Dongxing will convert to 0.4373 shares of CICC, and 1 share of Xinda will convert to 0.5188 shares of CICC [15] - Current share prices indicate a discrepancy, with Dongxing's implied post-merger price at 15.77 CNY and Xinda's at 18.71 CNY, while their actual prices are 14.21 CNY and 17.85 CNY, respectively, showing a price difference of 9.89% and 4.6% [6][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The price difference arises from two factors: uncertainty regarding the execution of the merger and the time required for regulatory approvals [7][16] - If the merger is successful, the share prices of Xinda and Dongxing are expected to converge towards their implied merger prices as the execution date approaches [16] - Investors can consider strategies such as buying Xinda or Dongxing while shorting CICC to lock in the price difference, although this involves risks if the merger fails [7][16] Group 4: Cash Exit Options - Shareholders of Xinda and Dongxing have the option to choose cash instead of shares if they do not wish to become shareholders of CICC, which is a protective measure for shareholders [18] - The cash exit prices are set at 34.8 CNY for CICC, 17.79 CNY for Xinda, and 13.13 CNY for Dongxing, with hidden cash exit prices calculated based on the share exchange ratios [19] - Various strategies can be employed around these cash exit prices, including buying below the cash exit price and selling at the hidden cash exit price [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown strong performance this week, with notable developments in the brokerage sector, including the merger plans of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing and Xinda, indicating a further acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry. The insurance sector is also seeing regulatory advancements with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) seeking public opinion on the draft asset-liability management guidelines for insurance companies. The report suggests that the long-term outlook is positive, with improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery expected, making the sector increasingly attractive for investment [2][4]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have strong market positions and business models. Additionally, it highlights companies like New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their earnings elasticity and valuation levels [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.9% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.2%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 9.8%, but underperformed the CSI 300 by 6.3% [5]. - The average daily trading volume in the market decreased to 17,604.84 billion yuan, down 9.86% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 1.83%, down 19.91 basis points [5]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Key announcements include the merger plans of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, and the CBIRC's public consultation on insurance asset-liability management guidelines. The report also notes the upcoming dividend announcements from Huaxi Securities, CICC, and Shenwan Hongyuan [6][19]. Insurance Sector Insights - In October 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 548.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.99%. Life insurance premiums grew by 9.56%, while property insurance premiums increased by 4.02% [23][24]. - The total assets of insurance companies reached 40.59 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 35.68 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.68% increase [27][28]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights a decline in the overall equity market, with the CSI 300 index down 0.28% and the ChiNext index down 2.26%. The brokerage sector's investment assets are primarily in bonds, with equity investments comprising about 10%-30% [40][46]. - Margin trading balances decreased to 2.50 trillion yuan, down 0.34% week-on-week, indicating a cautious approach to stock pledge business due to previous credit risks [49]. Financing and Asset Management - In November 2025, equity financing reached 50.65 billion yuan, while bond financing totaled 706 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in financing activities [53]. - The report notes a rebound in the issuance of collective asset management products, with 4.387 billion units issued in November, up 4.1% from the previous month [55].

中国经济网北京12月22日讯杰美特（300868）(300868.SZ)今日收报28.48元，跌幅3.91%。 杰美特于2020年8月24日在深交所创业板上市，公开发行股份数量为3200万股，发行价格为41.26元/ 股。募集资金总额为132,032.00万元，扣除发行费用13,061.69万元后，募集资金净额为118,970.31万元， 其中超募资金总额为76,671.84万元。上述募集资金已于2020年8月14日到达公司募集资金专用账户。 上市次日，即2020年8月25日，杰美特盘中创下上市以来最高点95.60元。目前该股处于破发状态。 杰美特于2020年8月14日披露的招股说明书显示，该公司拟募集资金4.46亿元，拟分别用于移动智能终 端配件产能扩充项目、技术研发中心建设项目和品牌建设及营销网络升级项目。 杰美特的保荐机构为东兴证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人为彭丹、贾卫强。杰美特首次公开发行股票的 发行费用总计1.31亿元，其中，东兴证券股份有限公司获得保荐、承销费用1.12亿元。 ...

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——中金公司重组预案出炉，中央财办进一步明确政策导向 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年12月22日 1 1、中金公司"三合一"重大资产重组预案出炉。12月17日晚间，中金公司与东兴证券、信达证券同步披露重大资产重组预 案，中金公司换股吸收合并两家公司的交易定价与方案明晰。3家上市券商A股股票均于12月18日开市起复牌。本次合并后主 体有望在发挥原有中金公司投资银行、私募股权投资、机构业务、资产管理和国际化业务优势的基础上，吸收信达证券和东 方证券在企业纾困、并购重整、区域布局、零售客户上的特色资源，新主体资本金得到进一步补充的情况下，有望充分发挥 AMC产业优势和股东赋能，实现汇金系"投行+AMC资源"的深度协同，加快一流投资银行和投资机构建设进程。 2、中央财办详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神。12月16日，中央财办有关负责同志详解年中央经济工作会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote industry self-discipline and capacity verification, leading to a stable increase in coal prices, with the coal industry transitioning towards high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - The coal price is anticipated to recover from its lows, with a projected stable increase in 2026. In 2025, coal prices are expected to fluctuate, with the lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping to 610 CNY/ton in mid-June and recovering to 813 CNY/ton by December 1 [2]. - The China coking coal price index is projected to fluctuate between 1100-1570 CNY/ton in 2025, with a significant recovery of 37.14% from its lowest point [2]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to break low-price competition and shift the industry focus from scale expansion to quality improvement. The National Energy Administration has initiated capacity verification for coal mines in several provinces, which may lead to a decline in production due to stricter safety regulations [3]. - The coal import tax reinstated on January 1, 2024, and the emphasis on controlling low-quality coal imports are expected to reduce the volume of imported coal, with a notable 11% decrease in coal and lignite imports from January to November 2025 [3]. Group 3: Demand Side Insights - Thermal power generation is expected to remain resilient, with a projected increase in demand driven by AI computing power, which is anticipated to significantly boost electricity consumption in data centers [4]. - The cumulative thermal power generation from January to October 2025 was 52,130.5 billion kWh, showing a slight year-on-year decline, but thermal power is expected to play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand during peak periods [4]. Group 4: Dividend and Investment Outlook - The coal industry is witnessing a shift towards higher dividend payouts, with companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal aiming to maintain or increase their cash dividend ratios, reflecting a broader trend of enhancing shareholder returns [5]. - The introduction of market value management assessments and the emphasis on cash dividends are expected to strengthen the investment value of coal companies, with a focus on stable and sustainable returns [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, cost advantages, and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also considering companies with growth potential like Guanghui Energy and Huayang Co [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are effective means for securities firms to achieve external growth, enhance industry competitiveness, optimize resource allocation, and promote healthy market development under the trend of policy-driven high-quality development in the securities industry [1][2] - The report highlights that the merger and acquisition activity will help increase industry concentration and create scale effects, suggesting a focus on potential acquisition targets and leading securities firms [1][2] Group 2 - On December 17, major asset restructuring proposals were announced by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, with CICC planning to absorb and merge the other two firms through a share swap [2] - The share swap prices are set at 36.91 CNY per share for CICC, 16.14 CNY for Dongxing Securities, and 19.15 CNY for Xinda Securities, with respective swap ratios of 1:0.4373 and 1:0.5188 [2] - The restructuring involves both A-share and H-share listed companies, enhancing resource integration and scale effects, which will strengthen customer coverage and regional layout [3] Group 3 - Post-merger, CICC's estimated operating revenue is projected to reach approximately 27.4 billion CNY, with the number of outlets increasing from 245 to 436 and retail clients rising from 9.72 million to over 14 million [4] - The merger is expected to enhance CICC's overall strength, optimize business layout, and improve core competitiveness in capital strength, customer base, and comprehensive services [4][5] - The integration of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda Securities will leverage their differentiated advantages in network coverage, customer base, and capital strength, facilitating comprehensive financial solutions for a broader client base [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from the trend of bank deposits moving to insurance products, with a positive outlook for the liability side performance in 2026 due to successful short-term sales initiatives. The introduction of a tiered product pricing structure is anticipated to significantly alleviate the risk of interest spread losses. The "reporting and operation integration" is expected to promote industry consolidation and enhance the concentration of leading companies [4][31]. - The securities sector is experiencing a rise in market risk appetite and sustained high trading activity, benefiting from both valuation and performance attributes [4][31]. - Key companies to watch include China Ping An, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - The insurance sector is undergoing a systematic upgrade in asset-liability management, with new regulations requiring comprehensive coverage, reasonable matching, and robust supervision. The new rules include three mandatory indicators for property insurance companies, all of which must not fall below 100% [1][2]. - The report highlights the performance of listed insurance companies, with New China Life reporting a cumulative premium income of 188.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [14]. 2. Securities - The public fund performance benchmark reform has been initiated, focusing on the transformation of existing products and ensuring a smooth transition without drastic changes to holdings. The reform aims to enhance the attractiveness of the capital market [18]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 22,219 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.20% week-on-week [22]. 3. Multi-Financial - Nanhua Futures has set the final price for its H-share issuance at 12 HKD per share, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [30].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's capital market continued to recover, enhancing the securities industry's ability to serve the real economy and new productive forces, with significant improvements in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities was completed, accelerating the construction of a first-class investment bank, while securities firms strengthened their overseas subsidiaries, deepening high-level opening-up. Looking ahead to 2026, the securities industry's functional capabilities are expected to be better utilized, contributing to the construction of a financial powerhouse [1]. Industry Development: Functional Capabilities and Capital Strength - The securities industry's functional capabilities became increasingly significant in 2025, serving the real economy and new productive forces effectively. Notable companies such as Moer Thread and Nidec were listed, and major firms like CATL and Zijin Mining successfully completed IPOs in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regaining its position as the top global IPO market [2]. - Investor satisfaction improved significantly in 2025, with the scale of financial products sold by securities firms growing. In the first half of the year, 42 listed securities firms achieved financial product sales revenue of 5.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [2]. Investment Banking: Recovery and Service to the Real Economy - In 2025, the investment banking sector showed signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing and mergers and acquisitions. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity [5]. - The Hong Kong IPO market also rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.889 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [6]. - Mergers and acquisitions became a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their service to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industry integration and transformation [6]. Wealth Management: Transition to Management Fees - In 2025, the wealth management business of securities firms saw significant growth, with total revenue from related businesses reaching approximately 145.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.4% [9]. - The shift from earning transaction commissions to management and service fees was evident, with online account openings exceeding 90% and over 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [11]. - The demand for wealth management services is expected to grow, driven by an increase in residents' financial assets, particularly in equity [12]. Asset Management: New Development Paths - The asset management industry underwent significant restructuring in 2025, with total private asset management product scale reaching 57.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [13]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses by securities firms was paused, with many withdrawing applications, indicating a shift towards exploring differentiated development paths [14]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with a focus on meeting diverse client needs [15]. Mergers and Acquisitions: Accelerated Restructuring - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry intensified in 2025, with significant cases such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC [16][17]. - The restructuring is characterized by a focus on resource integration and strategic transformation, supported by clear policy incentives [17]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure in 2026, with a focus on leading firms and potential growth among mid-sized securities companies [18].