Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth and development of inclusive finance in China, particularly focusing on small and micro enterprises and rural areas, with a notable annual growth rate of over 20% in inclusive micro loans during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] - As of June 2025, the balance of inclusive micro loans reached 36 trillion yuan, which is 2.3 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with a decrease in interest rates by 2 percentage points [1][2] - The average interest rate for newly issued inclusive micro loans was 3.48% as of June 2025, reflecting a decrease of 66 basis points year-on-year [1][2] Group 1: Digital Empowerment - Digital technology has been a key driver for the development of inclusive finance, with banks utilizing big data and AI to enhance loan approval efficiency and reduce financing costs [2][7] - The market structure among banks is changing, with large commercial banks holding a 45.11% share of inclusive micro loans, while rural financial institutions have seen a decline in their market share [2][3] - The average growth rate of inclusive micro loans has been slowing down, with a decrease from 30.9% in 2020 to 12.3% by mid-2025 [2][3] Group 2: Performance of Listed Banks - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Beijing Bank reported the highest growth rates in inclusive micro loans at 18.50%, 17.30%, and 17.27% respectively [3][4] - In contrast, some banks, including Shanghai Bank and Zhengzhou Bank, experienced negative growth rates of -3.97% and -2.06% [3][4] - The performance of different banks varies significantly, with state-owned banks generally showing stronger growth in inclusive micro loans compared to smaller banks [3][4] Group 3: Interest Rates and Risk Management - The interest rates for newly issued inclusive micro loans have decreased across various banks, with the highest rate at 4.20% and the lowest at 2.94% [7][8] - The gap in interest rates between large and small banks is narrowing, with some large banks' rates aligning closely with those of smaller banks [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of risk management in the inclusive finance sector, with several banks focusing on improving asset quality and managing non-performing loans [9][10]

Summary of China Regional Banks 3Q25 Review Industry Overview - The report focuses on the performance of China Regional Banks (CRBs) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) - Overall profits for CRBs grew by 6% year-over-year (y/y), a decrease from 9% y/y in 2Q25, primarily due to a decline in non-fee income [1][3] Core Earnings and Profitability - CRBs demonstrated a core earnings recovery of 12% y/y, outperforming large banks which only saw a 1% y/y increase in core earnings [1][3] - Net Interest Income (NII) for CRBs grew by an average of 7% y/y, improving from 5% y/y in 2Q25, while large banks averaged only 0.4% growth [3][7] - Fee income increased by 16% y/y, reversing a contraction trend, supported by agency fee growth as market sentiment improved [3][7] - Non-fee income saw a significant decline of 32% y/y, primarily due to fair value losses in bond investments [3][7] Asset Quality - Asset quality remained stable, with the average Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio declining by 1 basis point (bps) q/q to 0.96% in 3Q25 [1][21] - The Special Mention Loan (SML) ratio increased by 3 bps q/q, indicating some pressure on asset quality compared to large banks [21] - The NPL coverage ratio decreased slightly by 1 bps q/q, suggesting a cautious approach to provision releases [21] Capital and Growth Constraints - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio for CRBs decreased by 11 bps q/q, raising concerns about growth constraints due to lower capital levels [3][21] - CRBs reported a 2% q/q loan growth, consistent with industry trends, but with significant variations among banks [20] - Deposit growth was flat on average, with BoNB experiencing the highest contraction at -1.4% q/q [20] Investment Recommendations - Top picks among regional banks include BoNB and BoNJ, both showing double-digit growth in core earnings and stable asset quality [1][3] - BoBJ's performance was the weakest, with a profit contraction of 2% y/y and a low CET1 ratio, although its high dividend yield of 5.8% provides some downside protection [1][3] - Caution is advised regarding CSRCB until clearer signs of improvement in SME asset quality are observed [1][3] Valuation Insights - The report includes a valuation comparison of various regional banks, highlighting differences in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) [5] - The average P/E for CRBs is projected at 6.1 for FY25E and 5.7 for FY26E, with an average dividend yield of 5.0% for FY25E [5] Conclusion - The overall performance of China Regional Banks in 3Q25 indicates a steady recovery in core earnings, although challenges remain in non-fee income and capital levels. The investment outlook is cautiously optimistic for select banks, particularly BoNB and BoNJ, while caution is warranted for others like CSRCB and BoBJ.

Group 1 - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) has seen significant participation from local procurement teams, with Shanghai's procurement orders reaching approximately $2.776 billion and additional projects worth about 2.99 billion yuan signed by major enterprises [1][2] - Various local procurement teams from regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Greater Bay Area, and others are targeting procurement goals starting from 10 billion yuan [1][2] - The Zhejiang procurement team has sent 47,000 professional buyers, focusing on products like biscuits and candies, and has signed import agreements worth 14.5 billion yuan with suppliers from 14 countries [2][3] Group 2 - The CIIE serves as a platform for Chinese companies to reconnect with existing clients and seek new partnerships, with a focus on understanding global product trends and innovations [3][4] - AI and healthcare technologies are key areas of interest, with companies like Dian Diagnostics signing contracts for medical equipment and diagnostic reagents [3][4] - The Fujian procurement team has intentions to purchase over $2.2 billion worth of goods, including medical devices and food products, maintaining stable procurement levels compared to previous years [5][6] Group 3 - Shenzhen's procurement team is expected to exceed previous years' purchasing amounts, focusing on high-tech products and green energy [7][8] - The Anhui procurement team has registered over 1,900 units and expects procurement intentions to surpass previous years, aiming to leverage the CIIE for economic development [8][9] - The Henan province is utilizing the CIIE to enhance its import structure and attract quality resources for economic growth [9][10] Group 4 - The global market environment is shifting, with Chinese companies looking to expand into European markets as traditional export models face challenges [10] - Data indicates a 7% year-on-year increase in China's exports to Europe, highlighting the need for companies to adapt their strategies for better market presence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term deposit products, once considered a "stabilizing force" for investors, are gradually disappearing from the shelves of some banks, indicating a profound restructuring of the banking industry's profit logic in response to deepening interest rate marketization and a low-interest environment [1][4][8]. Group 1: Disappearance of Long-term Deposits - As of November 9, major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have removed 5-year large certificates of deposit (CDs) from their offerings, with banks like ICBC, ABC, and BOC no longer listing these products [2][3]. - The interest rates for commonly available 3-year large CDs are now between 1.5% and 1.75%, with some banks facing a "one order hard to find" situation due to limited availability [2][3]. - Regional banks are also tightening their long-term CD offerings, with many now focusing on shorter terms such as 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Shift in Banking - The current low net interest margin has prompted banks to lower their liability costs to maintain stable profit levels, leading to the reduction or cancellation of high-interest long-term CDs [4][7]. - Smaller banks, particularly village banks, are also halting long-term deposit products, reflecting a broader industry trend towards optimizing balance sheets in response to regulatory pressures and changing market conditions [5][7]. - The traditional banking model of high-interest deposits and low-interest loans is facing unprecedented challenges, with net interest margins dropping to historical lows [8][9]. Group 3: Future Directions - The banking sector is expected to increasingly favor short-term adjustments and flexible combinations of various financial products to enhance customer loyalty and stabilize relationships [9]. - Banks are likely to optimize their liability structures by offering more medium- and short-term deposit products, reducing the proportion of high-cost deposits, and improving overall profitability through wealth management services [9].

Group 1 - The eighth Hongqiao International Economic Forum held multiple sub-forums focusing on financial support for global trade, supply chain stability, and cross-border trade development, highlighting the importance of financial cooperation in international markets [1][2][3] - China Bank and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council signed a strategic cooperation memorandum to assist enterprises in expanding into international markets [1] - The launch of the "Digital Trade" ecological alliance by the Bank of Communications aims to enhance cross-border trade quality [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised its guidelines for using government bonds as margin, facilitating futures companies in managing collateral [7] - Shanghai banks are innovating in financial services, such as the launch of the "Xinyu" cross-border products by Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank to support enterprises in global markets [11] - The signing of a strategic cooperation framework agreement between Shanghai United Assets and Macau Financial Assets Exchange aims to enhance cross-border asset trading and technological collaboration [9] Group 3 - The China Export-Import Bank introduced a tailored financial service plan for the eighth China International Import Expo, focusing on providing efficient cross-border financial services [14] - The Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau reported a total asset balance of 28.59 trillion yuan in the banking sector as of September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.25% [30] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange successfully recorded the first cross-border share pledge registration, enhancing the efficiency of cross-border transactions [20]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) has seen Shanghai's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) achieve significant procurement agreements, totaling 113 orders worth approximately $2.776 billion, indicating continued growth in participation and engagement [1] - Since the first CIIE, Shanghai's SOEs have organized 177,000 professional attendees and secured a cumulative procurement amount of $22.2 billion, maintaining the leading position among Shanghai's trade delegations for eight consecutive years [2] - A total of 12 projects from 11 major enterprises, including SAIC Motor and Shanghai Electric, were signed with a transaction amount of approximately 2.99 billion RMB, enhancing strategic partnerships with global companies [3] Group 1 - Shanghai's SOEs have played a crucial role in the CIIE, fulfilling major tasks related to infrastructure, transportation, and support services, thereby acting as a driving force for the event [1] - The total exhibition area for overseas enterprises reached 11,500 square meters, with 860 companies registering 21,500 professional attendees, reflecting a strong international presence [2] - The focus on high-quality procurement in sectors such as bulk commodities, biomedicine, high-end equipment, and intelligent systems has led to an increase in both procurement quality and transaction amounts [2] Group 2 - The ongoing reforms and development plans for Shanghai's SOEs are centered around the construction of "five centers," aiming to optimize state asset structures and enhance innovation capabilities [2] - The signing of contracts with global enterprises signifies a deeper collaboration and innovation ecosystem, extending the cooperation across broader dimensions and deeper levels of the industrial chain [3]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai has seen a significant number of investment and procurement projects signed, showcasing new collaborations and orders [1] - Shanghai state-owned enterprises signed 12 projects with a total transaction amount of approximately 2.99 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in procurement efforts across various sectors including bulk commodities, biomedicine, high-end equipment, and intelligent systems [2] - Since the first CIIE, Shanghai state-owned enterprises have organized 177,000 professional attendees and achieved a cumulative intended procurement amount of 22.2 billion USD with companies from over 20 countries and regions [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Medical Security Bureau signed procurement intentions for selected drugs and high-value medical consumables, with a total intended procurement amount of approximately 2.07 billion yuan [4] - The procurement includes products from foreign enterprises that were selected in the national centralized procurement process, with companies like Sanofi and Abbott participating [4] - The city is exploring centralized procurement for high-value medical consumables, aiming to reduce medical costs for the public [4] Group 3 - The Hongkou division of the Shanghai trading group achieved a record high in procurement orders amounting to 1.88 billion USD, with significant contributions from companies like Shiseido and Panasonic [5] - The Jing'an district's procurement orders have consistently ranked first in the city for seven consecutive years, accounting for a quarter of the total procurement orders at this year's CIIE [5] - Major companies including Cargill, L'Oréal, and Calvin Klein signed procurement and cooperation agreements during the event [5] Group 4 - The Yangpu division of the Shanghai trading group reported a new high in intended transaction amounts, with notable procurement in food products and high-end consumer goods reflecting market consumption upgrades [6] - Strategic cooperation agreements were signed with companies like Synopsys and Amcor, indicating a focus on innovation and sustainable development in the industry [6]

Core Insights - Shanghai Bank Ningbo Branch held a seminar focused on "exchange rate neutrality" to address the cross-border financial needs of export-oriented enterprises in Ningbo, providing a comprehensive financial service platform for over 40 companies [1][2] - The seminar featured key speakers from the People's Bank of China Ningbo Branch and Shanghai Bank, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among government, banks, and enterprises to promote stable foreign trade in Ningbo [1][2] Group 1: Seminar Highlights - The seminar provided insights into the advantages of cross-border RMB settlement and practical applications for small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - Detailed explanations were given on exchange rate risk management, foreign trade enterprise subsidy policies, and key policies for overseas direct investment and lending [2] - Shanghai Bank showcased real case studies to illustrate the application of risk management tools and promoted a diverse range of financial products tailored to cross-border business needs [2] Group 2: Future Directions - The bank's president stated a commitment to deepening engagement with Ningbo's export-oriented economy through precise policy interpretation, professional market analysis, and a rich product system [3] - The bank aims to enhance its cross-border financial services and strengthen collaboration among government, banks, and enterprises to support the high-quality development of Ningbo's foreign trade [3] - Future efforts will focus on integrating resources, expanding cooperation networks, and contributing to regional economic development, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [3]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) has seen the Shanghai State-owned Assets and Enterprises Group achieve 113 intended procurement orders, amounting to $2.776 billion, indicating continued growth in participation and procurement activities [1] - Shanghai's State-owned enterprises have organized 177,000 professional attendees since the first CIIE, reaching a cumulative intended procurement amount of $22.2 billion, maintaining the top position among all sub-groups of the Shanghai trading group for eight consecutive years [2] - A total of 12 projects from 11 enterprise groups, including SAIC Motor Corporation and Shanghai Electric, were signed with a transaction amount of approximately 2.99 billion RMB, establishing closer strategic partnerships with global enterprises [3] Group 1 - The Shanghai State-owned Assets and Enterprises Group plays a crucial role in the CIIE, fulfilling major tasks related to infrastructure, transportation, and support services [1] - The focus for the next five years will be on building "five centers," deepening reforms, and expanding high-level opening-up to enhance connections between global enterprises and the Chinese market [1][2] - The procurement efforts have been intensified in sectors such as bulk commodities, biomedicine, high-end equipment, and intelligent systems, leading to improvements in both procurement quality and transaction amounts [2] Group 2 - The total exhibition area organized by Shanghai State-owned enterprises reached 11,500 square meters, with 860 companies and 21,500 professional attendees registered [2] - The strategic cooperation established through the signing of projects aims to extend collaboration across broader dimensions and deeper levels of the industrial chain [3] - The ongoing reform and development plans will focus on optimizing the structure of state-owned assets and enhancing innovation capabilities [2]

Market Overview - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.21% on November 7, with Qilu Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Individual Bank Performance - Xiamen Bank closed at 7.23, up 0.98% with a trading volume of 333,300 shares and a transaction value of 241 million [1] - Ningbo Bank closed at 29.31, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 297,300 shares and a transaction value of 875 million [1] - Qilu Bank closed at 6.08, down 1.46% with a trading volume of 648,100 shares and a transaction value of 39.86 million [2] - Suzhou Bank closed at 8.33, down 1.07% with a trading volume of 373,400 shares and a transaction value of 314 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 148 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 163 million [2] - Jiangsu Bank had a net inflow of 63.24 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 39.08 million from speculative funds [3] - Nanjing Bank experienced a net inflow of 24.45 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 30.58 million from speculative funds [3]