证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 桐昆股份（601233.SH） 1H24 业绩大幅改善，看好长丝盈利逐步改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|---------| | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 61,993 | 82,640 | 93,084 | 99,232 | 107,114 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 4.8 | 33.3 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 7.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 125 | 797 | 2,469 | 3,875 | 4,709 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -98.3 | 539.1 | 209.7 | 57.0 | 21.5 | | ROE （ % ） | 0.4 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 10.4 | | EPS 最 ...

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2024-061 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于召开2024年第二次临时股东大会的提示性公告 至 2024 年 9 月 13 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股东 大会召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00；通过互联网 投票平台的投票时间为股东大会召开当日的 9:15-15:00。 ●股权登记日：2024年9月6日 桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称："本公司"）已于2024年8月29日在指定信 息披露媒体及上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）上发布了《桐昆集团股份有 限公司关于召开2024年第二次临时股东大会的通知》（公告编号：2024-059） 本次股东大会将通过上海证券交易所网络投票系统向社会公众股股东提供网络 形式的投票平台，根据中国证监会《关于加强社会公众股股东权益保护的若干规定》 （证监发【2004】118号）的要求，现发布召开本次股东大会的提示性公告如下： 一、会议召开时间 ●网络投票时间： 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票 ...

桐昆集团股份有限公司 2024 年 第二次临时股东大会会议材料 桐昆集团股份有限公司 2024 年 9 月 1 目录 | 桐昆集团股份有限公司 | 年第二次临时股东大会通知 | 2024 | 3 | 桐昆集团股份有限公司 | 年第二次临时股东大会会议须知 4 | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 桐昆集团股份有限公司 | 年第二次临时股东大会会议议程 6 | 2024 | 议案一：关于变更部分募投项目的议案 7 | | | | 电 话：0573-88180909 地 址：浙江省桐乡市凤凰湖大道 518 号桐昆股份董事会办公室 通知发出日期：2024 年 8 月 29 日 2 桐昆集团股份有限公司2024年第二次临时股东大会通知 各位股东及股东代表： 桐昆集团股份有限公司 2024 年第二次临时股东大会拟于 2024 年 9 月 13 日 下午 14：00 时在桐昆集团股份有限公司总部会议室召开。 本次股东大会审议和表决议题如下： 《关于变更部分募投项目的议案》。 以上议案，已经公司 2024 年 8 月 27 日召开的第九届董事会第十二次 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) and lowers the target price to 15.70 CNY from the previous 17.70 CNY [3][4]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 30.67% to 48.2 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.065 billion CNY, reflecting a 778% increase [3]. - The report highlights that the polyester filament market is experiencing price improvements due to the leading companies' pricing strategies, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY increasing by 2.58%, 0.70%, and 2.71% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Investment income from Zhejiang Petrochemical, in which the company holds a 20% stake, has turned profitable, contributing 4.17 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, compared to a loss of 350 million CNY in the same period of 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 48.2 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.065 billion CNY and a non-recurring profit of 900 million CNY, marking a 2800% increase year-on-year [3][10]. - The Q2 2024 net profit was 485 million CNY, down 18.67% year-on-year and 16.31% quarter-on-quarter, with core profit excluding investment income at approximately 324 million CNY [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the polyester filament industry has a high concentration, with a CR6 close to 70%, enhancing the pricing power of leading companies [3]. - The "one-price" model adopted by leading companies has improved price differentials, with the price gap for various filament types showing month-on-month improvement [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by downstream inventory replenishment, particularly in the winter season, despite current challenges posed by high temperatures affecting production and sales [3].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工/基础化工材料制品 证券研究报告 桐昆股份（601233）公司半年报点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 股票数据 0[9Ta月b0le2_日S收to盘c价k（In元fo）] 11.58 52 周股价波动（元） 10.63-16.44 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 2411/2272 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 27921/26313 《长丝产销稳定增长，浙石化盈利逐季改善》 《长丝盈利改善，产销稳定增长》2023.09.09 [Table_QuoteInfo] 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1，公司实现营收 482.15 亿元，同 比+30.67%，环比+5.40%；实现归母净利 10.65 亿元，同比+911.35%，环 比+54.00%。 价格及销量上升较大，产品收入涨幅可观。2024H1，公司 POY 销量 441.09 万吨，同比+30.98%；FDY 销量 95.41 万吨，同比+51.78%；DTY 销量 50.87 万吨，同比+12.27%；PTA 销量 72.18 万吨，同比+109.95%。价格方面。 POY 价格为 68 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 showed significant recovery, with Q2 revenue stabilizing. H1 2024 revenue reached 48.215 billion yuan, up 30.67% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.065 billion yuan, up 911.35% YoY. Q2 revenue was 27.103 billion yuan, up 28.38% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 485 million yuan, down 16.31% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in investment income from Zhejiang Petrochemical [4] - The company's polyester filament products experienced both volume and price increases, with production and sales continuing to rise. H1 2024 production of polyester filament reached 6.36 million tons, with sales of 5.87 million tons and a sales-to-production ratio of 92.4%. The average selling prices of POY/FDY/DTY increased by 1.69%/2.03%/2.06% YoY, respectively [4] - The company is further enhancing its integrated industrial chain layout, with several key projects progressing smoothly. Current PTA/polyester filament production capacity stands at 10.2/13.5 million tons, and the company is expanding its capacity and market share during the industry's cyclical upturn [4] - The price difference for polyester filament remained strong, and the industry structure is improving under the leadership of major players. In H1 2024, there were no new capacity additions in the polyester filament industry, and the price difference for POY/FDY/DTY was 1,230/1,780/2,730 yuan/ton as of July, with industry profitability expected to gradually improve [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue growth is expected to slow down, with projected revenue growth rates of 12.61%, 7.02%, and 6.03% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 203.91%, 46.19%, and 21.78% for the same periods [5] - The company's profitability is improving, with gross margins expected to rise from 5.06% in 2023A to 6.86%, 7.22%, and 7.39% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively. Net margins are also expected to increase from 0.99% in 2023A to 2.67%, 3.65%, and 4.19% in the same periods [6] - ROE is projected to increase from 2.25% in 2023A to 6.44%, 8.68%, and 9.65% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, indicating improving returns on equity [6] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 35.97 in 2023A to 11.84, 8.10, and 6.65 in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, reflecting a more attractive valuation [5] - The P/B ratio is also expected to decline from 0.81 in 2023A to 0.76, 0.70, and 0.64 in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, indicating a lower valuation relative to book value [6]

公 司 研 究 桐昆股份（601233.SH） 2024 年 08 月 29 日 2024H1 业绩同比大幅增长，看好长丝盈利继续修复 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2024/8/28 当前股价(元) 11.69 一年最高最低(元) 16.44/10.63 总市值(亿元) 281.86 流通市值(亿元) 265.63 总股本(亿股) 24.11 流通股本(亿股) 22.72 近 3 个月换手率(%) 61.61 股价走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 桐昆股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024H1 业绩预计同比高增，看好下 半年长丝盈利继续修复—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.7.16 《Q1 业绩同环比大幅增长，看好长丝 盈利继续修复—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.5.5 《2023 年业绩同比高增，长丝景气度 有望继续修复—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.1.31 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 金益腾（分析师） 龚道琳（分析师） 蒋跨跃（分析师） jinyiten ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) with a current price of 11.71 CNY [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant year-on-year growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 48.2 billion CNY, up 31%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.065 billion CNY, up 911% [4][5] - Q2 2024 performance showed a decline due to weak industry demand, but the outlook for H2 2024 is optimistic as the demand for polyester filament is expected to rise [5] - The company has launched a stock incentive plan, reflecting confidence in future growth, with performance targets set for net profit growth [6] - The initiation of the integrated refining project in Indonesia marks the company's entry into the refining sector, indicating potential for future growth [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 48.2 billion CNY, a 31% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.065 billion CNY, a 911% increase [4] - Q2 2024 revenue was 27.1 billion CNY, up 29% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 485 million CNY, down 19% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter [4] Market Conditions - In Q2 2024, the domestic PTA price spread was 404 CNY/ton, down 84 CNY/ton year-on-year and 12 CNY/ton quarter-on-quarter, indicating pressure on profitability due to narrowing spreads in the chemical fiber industry [5] - The report anticipates an improvement in the supply-demand balance for polyester filament in H2 2024, driven by seasonal demand and production cuts by leading companies [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company has introduced a stock incentive plan with ambitious performance targets, including a net profit growth rate of no less than 40.5% for 2023 and cumulative growth rates of 200.5% and 450.5% for 2023-2024 and 2023-2025, respectively [6] - The launch of the integrated refining project in Indonesia involves an investment of approximately 8.624 billion USD, with a capacity of 16 million tons/year, indicating a strategic expansion into the refining sector [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2024-2025, expecting net profits of 2.546 billion CNY (down 18%) and 3.891 billion CNY (down 15%) for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with an EPS of 1.06 CNY for 2024 [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the polyester market, with a gradual increase in market share as new capacities come online [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the recovery in the long filament and refining industries, indicating that the company's performance potential is gradually being released. The overall oil price showed a stable trend after a peak in the first half of 2024, with the average Brent oil price at $83.05 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 48.215 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.065 billion yuan, a significant increase of 911.35% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the polyester segment will continue to recover, benefiting from the gradual improvement in the long filament industry, with the average cash flow per ton for POY/FDY/DTY showing positive trends [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.215 billion yuan, up 30.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.065 billion yuan, up 911.35% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share reached 0.45 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1025.00% [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.16%, but a net profit of 0.485 billion yuan, which was a decrease of 18.50% year-on-year [1]. Industry Outlook - The report notes that the refining industry is expected to accelerate consolidation, with Zhejiang Petrochemical's contribution to the company's profits likely to increase. The refining capacity in China is projected to undergo significant changes, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacities [2]. - The long filament industry is expected to see limited new capacity in the second half of 2024, which, combined with seasonal demand, may enhance the company's performance elasticity [1][2]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 2.275 billion yuan, 3.398 billion yuan, and 4.138 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 185.5%, 49.4%, and 21.8% [2]. - The report estimates the diluted EPS for the same period to be 0.94 yuan, 1.41 yuan, and 1.72 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.39, 8.29, and 6.81 times [2].

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2024-053 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于召开2024年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2024 年 09 月 11 日(星期三) 下午 15:00-16:30 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址： http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 一、 说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以视频结合网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年上半年的经营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动 交流和沟通，在信息披露允许的范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行 回答。 二、 说明会召开的时间、地点 （一） 会议召开时间：2024 年 09 月 11 日下午 15:00-16:30 （二） 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址： http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） （三） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 三、 参加人员 公司 ...