Group 1: Market Performance - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 1.61%, with a transaction volume of 1.74 billion yuan [2] - The latest scale of the Rare Earth ETF reached 108.04 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment and ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The latest share count of the Rare Earth ETF is 6.034 billion shares, also a new high since its inception, and ranks first among comparable funds [2] - Over the past 7 days, the Rare Earth ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.184 billion yuan, totaling 3.405 billion yuan [2] - As of October 20, the net value of the Rare Earth ETF has increased by 88.93% over the past two years, ranking 59th out of 2358 index equity funds, placing it in the top 2.50% [2] - The highest monthly return since the establishment of the Rare Earth ETF is 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being 4 months and the longest increase percentage being 83.89% [2] Group 2: Industry Developments - On October 19, Tianhe Magnetic Materials announced plans to invest 850 million yuan in a project for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets and related equipment in Baotou City [3] - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced an increase in rare earth prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 [3] - In September, the export of rare earths and related products reached 10,538 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with a cumulative export of 95,875 tons from January to September, up 3.1% year-on-year [3] - The Ministry of Commerce of China issued two announcements on October 9 regarding rare earth export controls, indicating that products containing Chinese-origin rare earths valued at 0.1% or more may be subject to export restrictions [3] - The new regulations on rare earths are seen as a necessary response in the context of global supply chain competition, following similar measures for gallium and germanium [3] - It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities along the "resources + growth" dual lines, considering the potential impact of regional politics and export policies from major resource countries [3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing strong demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to significant price increases for gold and silver [2][27][30] - Base metals, particularly copper, are facing price volatility with limited fundamental support, as domestic consumption remains weak and supply disruptions are easing [1][13][14] - The tungsten industry is seeing price fluctuations with a divergence in the supply chain, while the molybdenum market is experiencing price increases due to higher output from mines [3][71] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have retreated from highs, with domestic inventories increasing due to limited downstream demand and ongoing maintenance at smelters [1][13] - Aluminum prices have risen slightly, supported by stable supply and improved demand, with a decrease in social inventories [1][21][22][23] - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][27][29] Minor Metals - The tungsten market is experiencing mixed price movements, with some products increasing while others remain stable or decline due to weak downstream demand [3][66][67] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by increased output from mines and stable demand from steel manufacturers [71][73] Rare Earths - Recent export control policies are expected to strengthen China's position in the rare earth industry, with price fluctuations observed in various rare earth products [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend of inventory reduction continues, driven by increased demand, and the aluminum price is expected to show stronger performance as inventory decreases [11] - The aluminum industry is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth and ongoing demand growth points [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 17, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,778.5 per ton, a week-on-week increase of $32.5 per ton, and a year-on-year increase of $191.0 per ton [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,910.0 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 70.0 yuan per ton, and a year-on-year increase of 320.0 yuan per ton [24] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 118,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 74,000 tons [56] - The alumina production in September 2025 was 7.604 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 135,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 38.3 million tons [56] 3. Inventory - As of October 16, the domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 627,000 tons, a week-on-week reduction of 22,000 tons, indicating a potential return to the inventory reduction trend [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility in metal prices due to fluctuating tariff expectations and geopolitical factors, particularly affecting copper and aluminum prices [4][30]. - The precious metals sector is expected to benefit from increased central bank purchases, particularly gold, as the current pricing environment favors safety over yield [22]. - Industrial metals like copper are projected to see price increases due to stable demand from infrastructure investments and AI data centers, despite short-term tariff impacts [4][30]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.99% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 3.07%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.85 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 69.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 54.87 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [4]. - Industrial metals experienced mixed results, with copper prices decreasing by 4.34% and aluminum by 1.19% [4][9]. - Lithium prices showed slight increases, while cobalt prices surged by 10.33% [4][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is expected to tighten due to production disruptions from incidents at major mines, with a projected 2.2% decrease in global copper supply [4][30]. - The aluminum sector is witnessing stable demand, with a shift towards peak consumption season anticipated [4][44]. - The steel industry is experiencing a decrease in production, while downstream demand is increasing, leading to a reduction in steel inventory [4][20]. Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the precious metals sector include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating differing market expectations [19]. - In the industrial metals sector, companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted for their growth potential, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt the market, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have reached new highs [1][2]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, despite short-term volatility caused by tariffs [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3]. - Precious metals are benefiting from strong central bank purchases and high expectations for interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Tariff-induced short-term volatility is affecting copper prices, but supply disruptions are expected to support prices [2]. - Aluminum demand remains resilient, with a decrease in social inventory indicating a potential price stabilization [2][19]. - The report highlights key companies in the industrial metals sector, including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are rising due to new export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium demand remains strong due to the growth of the electric vehicle market [3]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to strong demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold [3].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, with only four industries showing gains, notably banking and coal, which rose by 4.89% and 4.17% respectively [1] - The electronic and media sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 7.14% and 6.27% respectively [1] - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 301.74 billion yuan, with only two sectors seeing net inflows: banking (24.19 billion yuan) and coal (2.67 billion yuan) [1] Industry Performance - The banking sector had a weekly increase of 4.89% with a net inflow of 24.19 billion yuan [2] - The coal industry also performed well, increasing by 4.17% with a net inflow of 2.67 billion yuan [2] - The electronic industry faced the largest capital outflow, totaling 700.79 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with 416.92 billion yuan [2] Non-Metal Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 3.07% this week, with a net outflow of 326.17 billion yuan [2] - Within this sector, 30 out of 137 stocks increased, with notable gains from Xinlaifu (49.84%), Baiyin Nonferrous (28.54%), and Antai Technology (19.20%) [2] - Conversely, 107 stocks declined, with Jiangnan New Materials, Bowei Alloys, and Huaxi Nonferrous experiencing the largest drops of 15.31%, 13.34%, and 12.71% respectively [2] Capital Flow in Non-Ferrous Metals - In the non-ferrous metals sector, 15 stocks had net inflows, with China Aluminum leading at 2.12 billion yuan, followed by Shanjin International and Western Gold with 1.58 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively [3] - A total of 59 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with North Rare Earth, Ganfeng Lithium, and Zijin Mining seeing the largest outflows of 3.756 billion yuan, 2.747 billion yuan, and 2.100 billion yuan respectively [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a positive outlook for the industry from 2025 to 2031, with specific data on production volumes and growth rates [1]. Industry Summary - In April 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.76 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of these metals totaled 26.6 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 2.3% [1]. - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry research institution in China [1].

Core Insights - On October 17, China Aluminum conducted a block trade with a transaction volume of 580,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.9126 million yuan, at a price of 8.47 yuan per share [1] - The buyer was Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., and the seller was China International Capital Corporation [1] Trading Activity - In the last three months, China Aluminum has recorded a total of six block trades, amounting to a cumulative transaction value of 30.1571 million yuan [1] - The closing price of China Aluminum on the day of the trade was 8.47 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.51% [1] - The daily turnover rate was 2.13%, with a total trading volume of 2.408 billion yuan and a net outflow of main funds amounting to 34.1802 million yuan [1] Financing Data - The latest financing balance for China Aluminum is 3.373 billion yuan, with an increase of 64.1925 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 1.94% [1]

Group 1 - A new company, China Aluminum (Dalian) Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 3.17 billion yuan [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Cheng Tao, indicating a structured leadership [1] - The business scope includes non-ferrous metal rolling processing, common non-ferrous metal smelting, and new material technology research and development [1] Group 2 - The company is wholly owned by China Aluminum Corporation (stock code: 601600), reflecting a strategic expansion in the aluminum industry [1]