Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant improvement in the cost of liabilities for banks in 2025, with a notable decrease of 28 basis points (bp) in the first half of the year, compared to only 4 bp in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by reductions in deposit and interbank liabilities costs, contributing 19 bp and 7 bp respectively [3][11]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline by approximately 5 bp in 2026, with the downward pressure on margins continuing to ease marginally, suggesting that some banks may stabilize their NIMs [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Improvement in 2025 - The first half of 2025 saw a significant reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the cost rate dropping to 1.70%, a decrease of 28 bp from 2024. This was supported by improvements in both deposit and interbank liability costs [11]. 2. Liability Side: Deposit Maturity and Repricing Benefits 1) **Term Structure**: The proportion of long-term deposits entering the repricing cycle has increased, with the share of deposits with a remaining maturity of 1-5 years declining by 1.5 percentage points (pct) to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Some banks, such as those in Ningbo and Chongqing, experienced declines exceeding 10 pct [4]. 2) **Price Factors**: Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable NIM levels has increased, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. The maximum reduction for three-year deposits could exceed 100 bp, indicating substantial room for cost improvement [5]. 3. Asset Side: Yield Pressure Expected to be Better than 2025 1) **Loans**: The repricing pressure on loans is expected to ease, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) declining by only 10 bp in 2025, significantly less than the 50 bp drop the previous year [6]. 2) **Debt Replacement**: The shift from high-interest to low-interest debt is anticipated to have a limited impact on net interest margins, estimated to drag down margins by about 4 bp [6]. 3) **Bond Maturity**: The widening gap between new bond issuance rates and existing bond yields is expected to exert downward pressure on investment yields, with an estimated drag of 6 bp on margins from the reallocation of bonds maturing within one year [6]. 4. NIM Projections - The report forecasts a 5 bp decline in NIM for 2026, with the downward trend continuing to converge. The asset yield is expected to decrease by 17 bp, while the cost of liabilities is projected to improve by 13 bp, with deposit costs improving by 17 bp [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The growth of M2 is primarily driven by government and corporate leverage, with government leverage's contribution increasing from 23.9% in 2015 to 45.5% in 2025, while corporate leverage is expected to contribute 63.6% to M2 growth in 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a divergence between the social financing (社融) and M2 growth rates, indicating a liquidity accumulation in the financial system when the demand for financing from the real economy is insufficient, which can lead to a decline in bond yields [5][19]. - The expected social financing-M2 differential for 2026 is projected to be 0.56%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33 basis points [32]. Summary by Sections M2 and Liquidity Analysis - M2 includes cash, personal deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank deposits, and deposits from non-deposit financial institutions. The main contributors to M2 growth are government and corporate leverage [5][13]. - The report discusses the relationship between the social financing-M2 differential and bond market performance, noting a shift in correlation since the second half of 2022 [5][19]. Social Financing Projections - For 2026, the report forecasts a total of 16.3 trillion yuan in new loans under the social financing framework, with a growth rate of 8.11% [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the net issuance of government bonds will reach 14.8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a proactive fiscal policy [34]. M2 Growth Forecast - The M2 growth rate for 2026 is projected at 7.55%, influenced by factors such as net fiscal deposits, the strengthening of the equity market, and cross-border capital flows [32][36].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a widespread decline in bank stocks, with China Merchants Bank falling by 3% [1] - Agricultural Bank of China, Qilu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank saw declines of over 2% [1] - Zhangjiagang Bank, Industrial Bank, Changshu Bank, and Bank of Communications each dropped nearly 2% [1]

Core Insights - The awards for financial bond underwriting and market-making have been announced, recognizing various banks and securities firms for their outstanding performance in the industry [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Group 1: Outstanding Underwriters - The title of "Outstanding Underwriter" was awarded to several banks, including CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [1][2] - A total of 10 banks were recognized as "Excellent Underwriters," highlighting their contributions to the financial bond market [1] Group 2: Excellent Market Makers - The "Excellent Market Maker" category included firms such as Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities, showcasing their role in enhancing market liquidity [2][4] - A diverse range of banks, including Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank, were acknowledged for their market-making capabilities [2][4] Group 3: Special Awards - Special awards were given for various categories, including "Debt Sea Rising Award" and "Green Low Carbon Award," recognizing banks like Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China for their innovative approaches [3] - The "Technology Innovation Award" was awarded to banks that demonstrated significant advancements in financial technology [3] Group 4: Individual Recognitions - Individual awards were presented to key personnel from various banks, such as CITIC Bank's Sun Wei and China Everbright Bank's Liu Yan, acknowledging their leadership in driving financial bond initiatives [4][5] - The "Outstanding Underwriting Supervisor" category highlighted individuals from major banks, emphasizing the importance of leadership in underwriting processes [5]

Group 1 - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.31% on December 8, with Shanghai Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] - Key individual stock performances in the city commercial bank sector included Xiamen Bank rising by 3.32% and Shanghai Bank falling by 1.43% [1][2] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds into the city commercial bank sector was 129 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 156 million yuan [2] - The table of fund flows indicated that Jiangsu Bank had a net outflow of 56.86 million yuan from main funds, while Hangzhou Bank had a net inflow of 49.79 million yuan [3] - The overall trend showed that retail investors were withdrawing funds from several banks, with notable outflows from Suzhou Bank and Qingdao Bank [3]

Core Viewpoint - Qilu Bank announced a temporary disruption in SMS services for customers using China Telecom mobile numbers due to network switch equipment updates scheduled for December 9, 2025 [1] Group 1 - Qilu Bank will be unable to send SMS messages from the number 106980096588 during the maintenance period [1] - Customers will also be unable to send SMS messages to Qilu Bank's number 106980096588 during the specified timeframe [1] - The maintenance is set to occur from 0:00 to 6:00 on December 9, 2025 [1]

值得一提的是，"科研贷"产品因其创新性与实效性，入选中国人民银行总行"科创金融改革优秀实践案 例""科技金融产品服务模式创新典型案例"及两项省级荣誉，并以第一名的成绩荣获济南市金融创新项 目一等奖。 筑牢体系根基：构建专业服务新范式 产品创新的背后，是深厚的体系支撑。齐鲁银行将科技金融与绿色金融定位为公司业务转型的两大核心 赛道，进行了深刻的组织变革与体系重塑。 该行搭建起自上而下的科技金融条线型垂直管理体系。总行层面设立科技金融管理岗和审批岗，实现业 务的专业化推动和审批。同时，在济南设立两家科技支行、三家科技金融特色支行和两家科技金融中 心，形成覆盖全市的服务网络。在2024年济南市科技金融机构擂台赛上，齐鲁银行科创金融中心支行以 总分第一的成绩荣获优秀奖。 专营机构确立了"专营、专注、专业"的"三专"发展策略。"专营"体现为业务专营和独立考核体系，科技 金融考核指标占比100%；"专注"在于行业深耕，通过"科技金融行业树"对客户准入进行精准把控；"专 业"则重在队伍建设，避免思维固化，并以"思享会"平台提升团队产业研究能力。 2025年11月，济南市获批建设国家级科创金融改革试验区已满四周年。作为扎根济 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qilu Bank has actively engaged in carbon reduction initiatives by providing carbon reduction loans to eligible projects, contributing to China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Reduction Loans - In Q3 2025, Qilu Bank issued carbon reduction loans totaling 18.3144 million yuan to two projects, with a weighted average interest rate of 3.6%, resulting in an annual carbon reduction of 4,649.74 tons of CO2 equivalent [1] - For the current year, Qilu Bank has cumulatively issued carbon reduction loans amounting to 56.6289 million yuan, with a weighted average interest rate of 3.66%, leading to an annual carbon reduction of 23,833.09 tons of CO2 equivalent [1] - Since receiving support from the carbon reduction support tool, Qilu Bank has issued carbon reduction loans totaling 112.1429 million yuan across 12 projects, with a weighted average interest rate of 3.83%, achieving an annual carbon reduction of 36,960.62 tons of CO2 equivalent [1] Group 2: Focus Areas and Future Commitment - The carbon reduction loans are specifically allocated for key areas such as clean energy, energy conservation, environmental protection, and carbon reduction technologies [2] - Qilu Bank will continue to play an active role in supporting green and low-carbon development, in accordance with the relevant regulations from the People's Bank of China, and will regularly disclose information related to carbon reduction loans [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in institutional research on local listed banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks, is driven by improving fundamental indicators, investment value, and market performance, with a generally optimistic outlook on net interest margins and dividend prospects [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Research Activity - As of December 3, 12 listed banks have received 195 research visits from 81 institutions since November, a significant increase from October's 58 visits [1][2]. - The banks involved in this round of research are all regional institutions, including Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and others [2]. - Year-to-date, 25 banks have been researched, with Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank leading in the number of visits, receiving 323 and 285 visits respectively [3]. Group 2: Outlook on Net Interest Margins - Institutions are focusing on dividend plans, net interest margin outlooks, and response measures during their research [4]. - Despite a historical low net interest margin of 1.42% as of Q3, many banks express optimism about future trends, citing potential stabilization [4][5]. - Banks are adjusting their asset-liability structures and reducing deposit rates to manage the pressure on net interest margins [5]. Group 3: Dividend Stability and Plans - The upcoming mid-term dividends for A-share listed banks in 2025 have become a focal point for institutions, with banks like Ningbo Bank and Zhangjiagang Bank implementing mid-term dividends for the first time [6]. - Several banks, including Suzhou Bank, maintain a stable cash dividend ratio of over 30%, indicating a commitment to providing consistent returns to shareholders [6]. - Banks are advised to balance their operational performance with dividend frequency, ensuring that dividend policies are aligned with profitability and capital adequacy [7].

Group 1 - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.43% on December 2, with Jiangsu Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] - Jiangsu Bank's closing price was 10.95, reflecting a 1.67% increase, with a trading volume of 1.7435 million shares and a transaction value of 1.897 billion [1] Group 2 - The city commercial bank sector experienced a net outflow of 316 million from institutional funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 421 million [2][3] - The trading data for various banks showed mixed performance, with Ningbo Bank declining by 0.69% and Guizhou Bank remaining unchanged [2] - Shanghai Bank had a net outflow of 46.6477 million from institutional funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.33839 million [3]