股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

当下投资银行股的机会成本仍然不高。数据显示，目前10年期国债收益率1.80%，仍处在历 史地位；银行股股息接近4.4%，较10年期国债收益率有2.6个百分点的溢价 商业银行的净利润正在较大范围地回暖，这体现在近期公布的10余家银行业绩快报中。 截至2026年2月12日，已有12家上市银行公布了2025年业绩快报，除华夏银行，其他各家净利润均实现 正增长：青岛银行的归母净利润同比增幅超过20%，齐鲁银行、杭州银行、浦发银行的归母净利润增幅 同比也在10%以上。而华夏银行归母净利润则比2024年末下降1.72%。 相比之下，2025年前三季度，商业银行累计实现净利润1.87万亿元，同比下降0.02%。其中，国有大 行、城商行、民营银行的净利润增速分别是2.27%、1.73%和7.09%；全国性股份制银行、农商行和外资 行净利润则同比下降，降幅分别为2.1%、7.36%和19.34%。 整体来看，商业银行的净利润正在迎来回暖。数据显示，2025年商业银行累计实现净利润为2.4万亿 元，较2024年末的2.3万亿元有所上升。2025年前三季度，商业银行累计实现净利润1.87万亿元，同比下 降0.02%，降幅较上半年有 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The banking index fell by 1.3% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [6][19] - H-shares of banks led the gains, while most A-shares declined, with notable performances from Huaxia Bank and Shanghai Bank due to improved earnings and strong expectations for convertible bond conversions [6][19] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio and return on equity (ROE) of bank stocks remain undervalued, with a continued recommendation for high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, and Suzhou Bank [6][19] - The report also suggests focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend, and convertible bond opportunities, particularly in Industrial Bank [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector's trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates falling, although the transaction volume share for state-owned and rural commercial banks has rebounded [8][39] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.28%, with a spread of 249 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while H-shares yield 5.21% [7][29] Profit Growth and Net Interest Margin - The overall asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 9.0% year-on-year by the end of Q4 2025, with major state-owned banks seeing a growth rate of 10.8% [9][44] - The net profit growth for commercial banks was 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend, particularly among city and rural commercial banks [9][44] - The net interest margin for 2025 is projected at 1.42%, with a marginal stabilization observed, and a further narrowing of the decline expected in 2026 [9][46] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios across various banks are stable or improving, attributed to increased write-off efforts, while the provision coverage ratio continues to decline [10][49] - Capital adequacy ratios remain stable, with attention on the potential impact of the second round of fiscal injections for state-owned banks and refinancing for smaller banks in 2026 [10][49]

文丨吴海珊 编辑丨承承 11家A股银行发布2025年业绩快报，总资产平均增速11.32%，城商行盈利增速显著领先股份行。 截至2月11日，共有11家A股上市银行发布2025年业绩快报。包括4家股份行，6家城商行，1家农商行。 从业绩快报数据看，11家银行2025年总资产规模同比增速平均为11.32%，营业收入平均增速为3.30%， 归母净利润平均增速为7.83%。 申万宏源证券分析师郑庆明预计，上市银行2025年呈现"营收平稳，利润增速逐步改善"的特征，同时业 绩表现分化明显。他预计，上市银行2025年营收同比增长0.9%，归母净利润增速修复至1.9%。 股份行企稳 浦发、中信资产规模站上10万亿 截至2月11日，发布业绩快报的4家股份行（浦发银行、中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行）资产规模均突 破10万亿元。 其中，浦发银行2025年末的资产总额达至100817.46亿元，较2024年末增加6198.66亿元，增长 6.55%； 中信银行（601998．SH）资产总额达101316.58亿元，相比2024年末的95327.22亿元同比增长6.28%；招 商银行资产规模为130705.23亿元，同比增长7.56% ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a "strong deposit, weak loan" characteristic in the opening month of the year [4] - In January 2026, new social financing increased by 7.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.2 billion yuan, with a balance growth of 8.2% [4][5] - New RMB loans in January 2026 amounted to 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan, with a balance growth of 6.1% [4][5] - The report indicates that consumer demand has shown some recovery, particularly in short-term loans, but overall consumer credit demand may remain pessimistic throughout the year [1][2] Summary by Sections Credit Overview - Entity credit remained stable, with a significant reduction in bill financing [1] - Retail loans saw an increase of 456.5 billion yuan in January, with short-term loans contributing 109.7 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans totaled 4.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, influenced by a substitution effect between short-term loans and bill financing [2] Social Financing - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with new issuance of 976.4 billion yuan in January, a year-on-year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [5] - The report notes a trend of "deposit migration," with non-bank deposits reaching 36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.7% of total deposits [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "New Momentum Portfolio" including banks like Nanjing Bank, Shanghai Bank, and others, highlighting their potential for value recovery [3][5] - It emphasizes the importance of high-dividend bank stocks in the current environment, suggesting that banks with new growth drivers may achieve greater value restoration [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a "strong deposit, weak loan" characteristic in the opening month of the year [4] - In January 2026, new social financing increased by 7.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.2 billion yuan, with a balance growth of 8.2% [4][5] - New RMB loans in January 2026 amounted to 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan, with a balance growth of 6.1% [4][5] - The report indicates that consumer demand has shown some recovery, particularly in short-term loans, but overall consumer credit demand may remain pessimistic throughout the year [1][2] Summary by Sections Credit Overview - Entity credit remained stable, with a significant reduction in bill financing [1] - Retail loans added 456.5 billion yuan in January, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans added 4.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in bill financing [2] Social Financing - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with new issuance of 976.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [5] - The report notes a trend of "deposit migration," with non-bank deposits reaching 36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.7% of total deposits [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "New Momentum Portfolio" including banks such as Nanjing Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, highlighting their potential for value recovery [3][5] - It emphasizes the importance of high-dividend bank stocks as having allocation value amid steady declines in credit growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Chief Compliance Officers (CCOs) in major state-owned banks marks a significant shift in compliance management, emphasizing the importance of compliance at the highest management level [1][2][6]. Group 1: Establishment of Chief Compliance Officers - On February 13, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China announced the appointment of their respective CCOs, with the positions held by the banks' presidents [1][2]. - This move signifies the formal establishment of CCOs in major state-owned banks, replacing the previous supervisory board system that has been in place for over 20 years [2]. - The appointment of CCOs by bank presidents is seen as a way to elevate compliance responsibilities to the highest management level, fostering a culture of compliance within the organization [2][8]. Group 2: Regulatory Background - The "Compliance Management Measures" issued by the Financial Regulatory Authority came into effect on March 1, 2025, with a one-year transition period that is nearing its end [4][5]. - As of February 13, 21 out of 42 A-share listed banks have appointed CCOs, while half of the banks have yet to finalize their appointments [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Practices - Many listed banks are following suit in appointing CCOs, with recent announcements from Qilu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Everbright Bank regarding their CCO appointments [3]. - Approximately half of the banks have adopted a model where senior executives, particularly bank presidents, serve as CCOs, which is prevalent among state-owned banks and some city commercial banks [7][8]. - The practice of having senior executives serve as CCOs is recommended to enhance the importance of compliance management and reduce operational costs associated with appointing separate compliance officers [8].

以下文章来源于阿尔法工场金融家 ，作者银妹妹 规模增长的传统叙事，正在让位于对资产负债管理（ALM）精细化。尤其是对迈过特定资产规模 门槛的区域银 行而言，如何将管理焦点从扩表节奏转向对资产负债表更精细的调控，已不再是战 略选择题，而是生存必答题。 齐鲁银行 (601665.SH) 最新公布的2025年经营数据，成为观察区域银行管理模式进阶的案例。 从经营数据来看，2025年齐鲁银行资产总额达到8043.81亿元，同比增长16.65%；实现营业收 入131.35亿元，同比增长5.12%；归母净利润57.13亿元，同比增长14.58%。 值得关注的是，其净息差从1.51%提升至1.53%，同比提升2个基点，利息净收入105.19亿元， 同比增长16.48%，增幅高于营收整体增幅。 阿尔法工场金融家 . 追踪保险银行业圈内动态，剖析最新风向，分享有料、有价值的"内行人"洞察见解。 导语：低利率与息差收窄背景下，区域银行的竞争演变为精细化资产负债管理能力的较量。 近两年来，净息差持续收窄，已成为中国银行业最明确的共性，将"息差保卫战"写入年度经营关 键词的银行不在少数。 截至2025年末，该行贷款总额3828.34 ...