《动力煤 700 元之上和焦煤大涨，煤 炭 布 局 稳 扎 稳 打 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.9.28 煤炭 2025 年 10 月 19 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动力煤或确立 700 元关口而向上， 煤炭布局稳扎稳打 —行业周报》- 2025.10.12 《煤价再度反弹至 700 元之上，煤炭 布 局 稳 扎 稳 打 — 行业周报》- 2025.9.21 煤价势如破竹至煤电均分 750 元，静待上穿过程 ——行业周报 | 张绪成（分析师） | 程镱（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangxucheng@kysec.cn | chengyi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020003 | 证书编号：S0790525090001 | chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：动力煤即将站上 750 关口而向上，静待上传过程 动力煤方面：动力煤价格大涨，截至 ...

| | | 2025 年 10 月 19 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 S0350124100016 | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 S0350125070001 | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | 《能源开采行业深度专题：能源结构变革中的中国 电力用煤需求展望（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2025-10-18 [Table_Title] 铁路检修、天气北冷南暖，供需两端双发力下港 口煤价大幅上涨 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/10/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 6.6% | 16.2% | -1.0% | | 沪深 300 | -0.8% | 11.9% | 19.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to multiple factors, including supply constraints and increased demand driven by cold winter expectations and export pressures [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity in their stock prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,954.93 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,915.57 billion yuan [2]. 2. Coal Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the port increased by 43 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 753 yuan/ton as of October 17, 2025, marking a 6.06% increase from the previous week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.52 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.13% week-on-week and a 3.93% decrease year-on-year [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to increased safety inspections and anticipated rainfall in major production areas, which may limit coal production and transportation [7][8]. - Demand is bolstered by expectations of a cold winter, leading to early stockpiling by power plants, and ongoing high demand from the steel industry [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended high-elasticity stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jinneng Holding, among others, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies' dividend policies and growth prospects, with several companies expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts [13]. 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with the report indicating that the coal price is likely to remain resilient despite seasonal trends [8]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance is expected to improve as supply-demand dynamics become more favorable [8].

Core Viewpoint - The coal mining and processing sector remains active, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases, indicating a positive market sentiment towards this industry [1] Company Performance - Dayou Energy has achieved a four-day consecutive increase in stock price [1] - Antai Group has reached its daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Yunmei Energy, Electric Power Investment Energy, Pingmei Shenma Energy, Shaanxi Black Cat, and Liaoning Energy have also seen their stock prices rise [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [32]. Core Insights - Domestic raw coal production increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 3.165 billion tons from January to August 2025, while coal imports fell by 11.1% year-on-year to 35 million tons from January to September 2025 [4][18]. - In Q3 2025, both thermal coal and coking coal prices rebounded, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports rising to approximately 673 CNY/ton, a 6.75% increase from Q2 2025, despite a 20.66% decrease year-on-year [4][23]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q3 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal achieving better-than-expected results, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining are projected to meet expectations [4][25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of coal remains tight due to production capacity checks, while demand is robust, leading to a rebound in coal prices during Q3 2025 [4][23]. - The report highlights that major coal-producing regions like Shanxi and Shaanxi have shown production increases, while Inner Mongolia experienced a slight decline [10][18]. Price Trends - The report details significant price fluctuations in coal types, with thermal coal prices showing a rebound in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, while coking coal prices also saw increases due to supply constraints [21][24]. - The average price of Shanxi's main coking coal at the port was reported at 1564 CNY/ton, reflecting a 19.09% increase from Q2 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease [24]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for key coal companies, indicating that China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 1.97 CNY, while companies like Shaanxi Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have EPS of 1.29 CNY and 0.25 CNY, respectively [25]. - The report identifies companies with strong earnings potential, recommending investments in undervalued stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining, while also suggesting stable dividend-paying stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal price at ports has rebounded due to supply constraints, with the northern port's thermal coal price reaching 709 RMB/ton on October 11, an increase of 8 RMB/ton compared to September 28 [3][15] - The supply side has tightened due to rainfall and maintenance, while demand remains resilient, particularly in the chemical sector and electricity consumption [15][73] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, emphasizing their strong cash flow and high dividend yields, suggesting a focus on low-priced coal stocks [6][73] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The supply side has tightened, with the capacity utilization rate in the Sanxi region decreasing by 0.24 percentage points to 90.44% as of October 8 [21] - The daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants has increased by 17.7 thousand tons and 69.2 thousand tons respectively [23] - The inventory at coastal and inland power plants reached 127.668 million tons as of October 9, a year-on-year increase of 0.611 million tons [15][29] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines decreased by 1.94 percentage points to 83.77% during the holiday period [40] - The price of main coking coal at the port was 1,630 RMB/ton as of October 11, down 120 RMB/ton from September 28 [41] - The average profit per ton of coking coal has turned positive, indicating improved profitability in the sector [55] Focus Companies - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, all of which are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and market positions [6][73]

证券研究报告 南热北寒需求旺，煤炭红利避险优选 ——煤炭行业周报（10月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2025年10月12日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截止2025年10月10日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨4.3%，沪深300指数下跌0.51%，跑赢沪深300指数4.81个百分点。全板块整周37只股价上涨，0只下 跌。宝泰隆涨幅最高，整周涨幅为13.54%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年10月3日-2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为655万吨，周环比减少13%，年同比减少13.6%。其中，动力煤周日均销量 较上周减少13.1%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少11.5%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.3%。截至2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为674万吨，周环比减少100%，年同比减少100%；重 点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2536万吨，周环比增加4.4%，年同比减少9%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量19540 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a stable and slightly rising trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend in late October 2025 [7][8]. - The demand side is supported by higher temperatures leading to increased coal consumption, particularly in coastal and inland provinces. The average daily coal consumption reached 5.486 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 18.82% and a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7][8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of tighter supply due to regulatory measures against overproduction and adverse weather conditions affecting coal production and transportation [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 185.34 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 181.40 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 710 yuan per ton as of October 10, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan per ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.529 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The report notes that the Daqin line has begun its autumn maintenance, which will reduce daily transport capacity and may lead to further inventory depletion at ports [8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The steel market is entering a traditional peak season, which is expected to improve the demand for coking coal. The average daily pig iron production has remained above 2.4 million tons [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][12].

在10月9日的河南能源集团调度会议上，中国平煤神马集团总经理、党委副书记、副董事长，河南能源 集团党委书记、董事长、总经理杨恒主持会议并讲话。 10月11日，一名河南能源集团基层职工告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，自己所在的公司目前正常经营，产 煤量和往常相同，基层员工们还未收到重组的通知，自己也是此前看了新闻知道的消息。 河南能源集团董事长变更为杨恒 河南能源集团公开表示，经新组建的中国平煤神马集团（以下简称平煤神马）党委研究决定、河南能源 集团党委推荐和董事会决策，任命了重组过渡期间河南能源集团领导班子。 大河财立方消息显示，根据河南省人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会《关于河南能源集团董事会成员的 通知》及河南能源集团《关于杨恒等8人任职的通知》等文件，河南能源集团董事长由马正兰变更为杨 恒；董事会成员由马正兰、杨恒、刘同胜、宋录生、鲁智礼、李煦燕、陈红岩、程军强、周琳变更为杨 恒、程凯、贾明魁、孙广建、鲁智礼、李煦燕、陈红岩、程军强、周琳；信息披露事务负责人由张五星 变更为余鑫。 每经记者｜王佳飞 每经编辑｜张海妮 10月10日晚间，河南能源集团有限公司（以下简称河南能源集团）公开表示，公司重组过渡期间的领导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic restructuring between two major energy state-owned enterprises in Henan, China, namely Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan Energy Group, aims to enhance competitiveness and reduce homogeneous competition in the energy sector, with a combined revenue exceeding 280 billion yuan in 2024 [3][4][7]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - The restructuring plan was approved on September 28, 2023, and will not change the controlling shareholders or actual controllers of the listed companies involved [3]. - Pingmei Shenma and Henan Energy cover multiple sectors including coal, chemicals, new energy, and hydrogen energy [3][4]. - The combined revenue of Pingmei Shenma and Henan Energy is projected to exceed 280 billion yuan, with Pingmei Shenma ranking 159th and Henan Energy 221st in the "China Top 500 Enterprises" list [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Despite the backing of large energy groups, the listed companies under Pingmei Shenma and Henan Energy have faced performance pressures recently [8]. - Pingmei Shenma's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 10.12 billion yuan, down 37.95% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 81.53% [8][9]. - Daya Energy reported a revenue of 1.92 billion yuan, down 26.14% year-on-year, with a net loss of 850 million yuan [8][9]. - Shima shares reported a revenue of 6.607 billion yuan, down 6.92% year-on-year, with a net loss of 37.57 million yuan [9]. - Yicheng New Energy achieved a revenue of 2.069 billion yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year, but reported a net loss of 170 million yuan [9]. - Silane Technology's revenue was 246 million yuan, down 40.09% year-on-year, with a net loss of 33.04 million yuan [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The restructuring is part of a broader trend in various provinces to enhance core competitiveness and reduce overcapacity in the energy sector [7]. - The restructuring aims to align with national goals for energy security and the transition towards greener and higher-end development [10].