人民财讯1月26日电，企查查APP显示，近日，平煤神马格润能源(河南)有限公司成立，注册资本2亿 元，经营范围包含生物质能技术服务；生物质液体燃料生产工艺研发；生物质液体燃料生产装备销售 等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司全资持股。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 煤炭开采 BTU 续创新高，海外"三小煤"需重点关注 行情回顾（2026.1.19~2026.1.23）： 中信煤炭指数 3743.77 点，上涨 1.44%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.06pct，位列中信 板块涨跌幅榜第 21 位。 本周，美股 BTU 一度涨至 39.95 美元/股，续创 2019 年以来新高。在 25 年 12 月初我们发布的《美国：AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转，黑金重燃》中指出"重 视 AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转的投资机会"。 印尼煤炭"供给侧"或正在实施中。据新华财经雅加达 1 月 23 日报道，印度尼西 亚总统普拉博沃·苏比延多 22 日在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛年会期间表示， 印尼政府已关闭全国约 1000 处非法矿场，并将继续严厉打击自然资源和环境领域 的违法行为，坚决维护法治。据了解，非法采矿活动往往无视安全和环保标准，易 引发洪水和山体滑坡等自然灾害。印尼国家灾害管理署数据显示，去年底苏门答 腊岛发生的洪水和山体滑坡已造成约 1200 人死亡，还有大量居民被迫撤离并安置 在 ...

煤炭 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《煤价上行回归合理价格，坚定稳煤 价逻辑—行业周报》-2026.1.18 《重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳字是核心 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳字是核心 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 1 月 24 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 685 元/吨，环比下降 10 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以下，我们预计未来价 格将逐步修复 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2026 年 01 月 23 日 版》分别 相关研究 #研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧了后 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 下半年煤价及行业利润边际改善, 某价筑底、盈利回升可期 煤炭行业 2025 年年报业绩前瞻 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 手 供给端, 2025 年国内原煤产量小幅增长, 但煤炭进口量下降。据统计局数据, 2025 年 ● 全国原煤产量为 48.32 亿吨，同比增长 1.2%，其中 10、11、12 月单月产量分别为 4.07、4.27、4.37 亿吨，同比增速分别为-2.3%、-0.5%、-1.0%。据海关总署数据, 2025 年累计进口煤 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance will improve the management of the negative list for special bond projects in 2026 and deepen the pilot program for local "self-examination and self-initiation" [1][2] - In 2025, after replacing existing hidden debts, the average interest cost of local government debt decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly reducing the burden on local governments [1] - New policies will support risk-sharing mechanisms for private enterprise bonds, with the central government allocating risk-sharing funds to provide credit support for bond issuance by private enterprises and private equity investment institutions [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced that the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0%, while the 5-year LPR is also unchanged at 3.5% [5] - The China Securities Association reported self-regulatory penalties for 143 instances involving 108 institutions in the interbank bond market for violations, including low-price underwriting of financial bonds [5] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to further support urban renewal actions, allowing the use of existing land and property resources for national-supported industries [7] Group 3 - Anhui Province plans to issue 240 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a tender scheduled for January 27 [10] - The Henan Province Zhongyu Ningzi Construction Development Group plans to issue 600 million yuan in corporate bonds, which has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [11] - The first commercial aerospace-themed merger note in China was successfully issued, with a scale of 200 million yuan and a coupon rate of 2.25% [12] Group 4 - China Pingmei Shenma Group completed its restructuring, increasing its registered capital from approximately 194.3 billion yuan to about 377.4 billion yuan, a growth of about 94% [13] - Zhengzhou Cultural Tourism and Sports Group received an AA+ credit rating, with a stable outlook [17] - The chairman of Jiangsu Environmental Protection Group is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [20]

Group 1: Regulatory Actions - In 2025, the Trading Association imposed self-discipline penalties on 143 entities, focusing on five key areas including structured issuance and fundraising management [1] - The penalties included the first-time crackdown on issues such as low-price underwriting of financial bonds and violations related to rating agencies and fund misappropriation [1] - A total of 44 structured issuance institutions were penalized, and 32 institutions faced penalties for trading violations, including price manipulation and interest transfer [1] Group 2: Debt Financing Market - In 2025, the average issuance rate for PPN was 2.52%, down 43 basis points from 2024 [2] - The Trading Association facilitated the registration of 1.24 trillion yuan in targeted debt financing tools, with 1.1 trillion yuan issued, representing 14% of the overall market [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [4] - The operation had a bidding amount and winning amount of 158.3 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.40% [4] Group 4: Bond Issuance Activities - China Pingmei Shenma Group issued 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes at an interest rate of 2.82%, with funds intended for debt repayment [8] - Anyang Steel plans to issue 400 million yuan in medium-term notes to supplement working capital, rated AA+ [9] - Zhengzhou Economic Development Capital Group completed the issuance of 650 million yuan in corporate bonds at a rate of 2.40%, aimed at repaying existing debts [10] Group 5: Market Developments - Shanghai Pudong Capital Investment Operation Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 10 billion yuan, focusing on asset management and optimization of state-owned capital [14] - The Trading Association reduced the debt financing tool quota by 16.731 billion yuan across eight companies [16][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that coal prices are returning to reasonable levels, with a slight decline in thermal coal prices, and an expectation for gradual recovery to around 750 RMB/ton [1][2] - As of January 17, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 695 RMB/ton, down 4 RMB/ton from the previous period, having previously reached the estimated target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton [1][2] - The report highlights that the recent price drop is attributed to a combination of supply tightening due to regulatory actions and increased demand driven by seasonal heating needs [2][3] Group 2 - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to undergo a recovery process influenced by policy adjustments and market dynamics [3] - The report outlines a four-step process for thermal coal price recovery, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balance in profitability between coal and power companies [3] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices linked to the price ratio between coking and thermal coal [3] Group 3 - The investment recommendation emphasizes a dual logic of cyclical recovery and stable dividends, suggesting that coal stocks are positioned for upward price movement due to low historical price levels and improving supply-demand fundamentals [4] - The report identifies four main investment lines in coal stocks, focusing on cyclical logic, dividend potential, diversified aluminum exposure, and growth logic [4] - Specific coal companies are highlighted as beneficiaries of these trends, including Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, and others [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that coal prices are returning to reasonable levels, reinforcing the logic of stable coal prices. The price of thermal coal has slightly decreased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 695 CNY/ton as of January 17, down 4 CNY/ton from the previous period. The report anticipates a gradual recovery to a reasonable price of 750 CNY/ton, with narrow fluctuations expected [3][4] - The long-term investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand. Supply constraints are a continuation of the strict production checks initiated in July, while demand is rising due to the heating season and increased industrial production [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 CNY/ton for 2025. The upper limit for coal prices is predicted to be between 800-860 CNY/ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. With both thermal and coking coal prices at historical lows, there is significant room for rebound. The report identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index fell by 3.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.12, and the PB ratio is 1.33, both ranking among the lowest in the A-share market [10][25][29]