Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the buying behavior of large funds by analyzing the proportion of large buy orders in the total transaction amount for a given day [7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Utilize tick-by-tick transaction data to reconstruct buy and sell order data based on the bid and ask sequence numbers [7] 2. Filter transactions based on order size to identify large orders [7] 3. Calculate the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total transaction amount for the day [7] **Formula**: $ \text{Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Large Buy Order Amount}}{\text{Total Transaction Amount}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: This factor effectively reflects the buying behavior of large funds [7] - **Factor Name**: Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the active buying behavior of investors by analyzing the net active buy transaction amount as a proportion of the total transaction amount for a given day [7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to classify each transaction as either active buy or active sell based on the buy/sell indicator [7] 2. Calculate the net active buy transaction amount by subtracting the active sell amount from the active buy amount [7] 3. Compute the proportion of the net active buy transaction amount to the total transaction amount for the day [7] **Formula**: $ \text{Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount} - \text{Active Sell Amount}}{\text{Total Transaction Amount}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the active buying tendencies of investors [7] Factor Backtesting Results - **Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio**: - Top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. Guofa Co., Ltd. (600538.SH): 86.5%, 97.9% time-series percentile [9] 2. Jilin Expressway (601518.SH): 86.3%, 82.3% time-series percentile [9] 3. Chongqing Iron & Steel (601005.SH): 85.8%, 83.1% time-series percentile [9] 4. Zijin Bank (601860.SH): 85.6%, 62.6% time-series percentile [9] 5. Jianyuan Trust (600816.SH): 85.5%, 90.5% time-series percentile [9] - **Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio**: - Top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. Fangda Special Steel (600507.SH): 24.8%, 100.0% time-series percentile [10] 2. Liaogang Co., Ltd. (601880.SH): 18.3%, 95.1% time-series percentile [10] 3. Overseas Chinese Town A (000069.SZ): 17.6%, 99.6% time-series percentile [10] 4. Qixia Construction (600533.SH): 14.6%, 99.2% time-series percentile [10] 5. Wanwei High-Tech (600063.SH): 14.3%, 99.6% time-series percentile [10] Additional Results for Indices, Industries, and ETFs - **Indices**: - Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Shanghai Composite Index: 74.2%, 25.1% time-series percentile [12] - CSI 300: 73.1%, 10.7% time-series percentile [12] - Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Shanghai Composite Index: -4.3%, 95.5% time-series percentile [12] - CSI 300: -4.5%, 100.0% time-series percentile [12] - **Industries**: - Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Steel: 80.6%, 46.9% time-series percentile [13] - Construction: 79.5%, 62.6% time-series percentile [13] - Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Steel: 4.0%, 40.7% time-series percentile [13] - Construction: 2.4%, 70.8% time-series percentile [13] - **ETFs**: - Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF (510050.SH): 89.3%, 74.1% time-series percentile [15] - GF CSI All-Index IT ETF (159939.SZ): 89.2%, 54.3% time-series percentile [15] - Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Huaan SSE STAR Chip ETF (588290.SH): 17.3%, 99.6% time-series percentile [16] - Harvest CSI Battery Theme ETF (562880.SH): 13.9%, 92.2% time-series percentile [16]

Core Insights - Zijin Bank's stock price increased by 2.05% on September 16, reaching 2.98 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 10.91 billion CNY [1] - The bank's main business segments include corporate finance (61.78%), personal finance (24.90%), funding business (12.55%), and others (0.77%) [1] - As of June 30, 2025, Zijin Bank reported a net profit of 912 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.12% [2] Financial Performance - Zijin Bank's stock price has increased by 8.36% year-to-date, with a 2.05% rise in the last five trading days and a 0.68% increase over the past 20 days, while it has decreased by 2.93% over the last 60 days [1] - The bank's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was reported as 0.00 CNY, indicating no revenue generation during this period [2] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Zijin Bank had 62,300 shareholders, a decrease of 3.67% from the previous period, with an average of 56,962 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.81% [2] - The bank has distributed a total of 2.563 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.098 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [2] Market Activity - On September 16, 2023, the net outflow of main funds was 2.4503 million CNY, with large orders accounting for 27.91% of purchases and 26.99% of sales [1] - The bank is categorized under the agricultural commercial bank sector and is associated with concepts such as long-term undervaluation and low price-to-earnings ratio [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 1.26% on September 15, with Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63% to 13005.77 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing prices and changes for various rural commercial banks showed negative trends, with Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank down 1.70% to 6.37, and Jiangyin Bank down 1.65% to 4.77 [1]. - The trading volume for the rural commercial bank sector was significant, with total transaction amounts reaching hundreds of millions, such as Zhangjiagang Bank at 1.27 billion and Jiangyin Bank at 1.71 billion [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 75.45 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 71.17 million [1]. - Specific banks like Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank had a main fund net inflow of 57.00 million, but retail investors withdrew 16.05 million [2].

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of green finance as one of the key areas for comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development, with Zijin Rural Commercial Bank actively integrating into the national green development strategy [1] Group 1: Strategic Foundation - Zijin Rural Commercial Bank has included green finance as one of its seven major business strategies in its 14th Five-Year Plan, launched in 2021, and has since developed a three-year plan for green finance [2] - The bank has established a dedicated green finance leadership group and a specialized center, creating a comprehensive organizational structure to promote green finance across all branches [2] - The bank has set green loan assessment indicators in its annual management evaluation for seven consecutive years, prioritizing credit plans for green enterprises and implementing preferential loan pricing [2] Group 2: Product Innovation - The bank has launched and upgraded the "Environmental Loan," linking loan pricing to the environmental credit ratings of enterprises, encouraging a focus on environmental impact [3] - The introduction of the "Zijin·Su Carbon Financing" product provides medium- to long-term low-interest credit loans to enterprises listed in Jiangsu's green enterprise directory [3] - As of the end of July, the bank's green loan balance reached 16.97 billion, an increase of 2.73 billion from the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 19.14%, surpassing the average growth rate of all loans [3] Group 3: Responsibility and ESG Practices - The bank has established a comprehensive ESG work system and published the first ESG report among rural commercial banks in the country, effectively identifying and managing climate and environmental risks [4] - Zijin Rural Commercial Bank is the first rural commercial bank in Jiangsu to sign the United Nations Principles for Responsible Banking and has received multiple awards for its ESG efforts [4] - The bank actively promotes ecological initiatives, such as the "Smile Yangtze Dolphin" themed credit card, and has conducted over 20 activities related to ecological protection and financial education [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zijin Bank, is focusing on enhancing its credit strategies and governance to support various sectors, particularly in response to national policies aimed at boosting consumption and supporting the real economy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Loan Strategies - In the first half of the year, the company's loan focus was on inclusive finance, technology loans, and green loans [3]. - The credit strategy for the second half will revolve around the "Five Major Articles" of finance, emphasizing support for technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly finance, and digital finance [1][3]. - Retail consumer loans will continue to be a key area for personal loan issuance, aligning with national policies to stimulate consumption [1][3]. Group 2: Operational Focus - The company aims to strengthen corporate governance and enhance management quality, integrating party leadership with corporate governance [2]. - There will be an emphasis on optimizing management mechanisms and improving risk control, enhancing internal control management, and promoting refined financial management [2]. - The company is committed to serving the real economy by focusing on financial support for key sectors and fostering the development potential of emerging fields [2].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is facing a critical turning point as net interest margins have fallen below non-performing loan ratios, indicating a dual pressure of shrinking income and rising risk [1][4][5] Group 1: Financial Indicators - As of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was 1.51%, while the net interest margin was 1.43%, marking the lowest net interest margin since 2005 [1][5] - By Q2 2025, the net interest margin further declined to 1.42%, with the non-performing loan ratio rising to 1.49% [1] - Over 20% of the 42 listed banks reported net interest margins lower than their non-performing loan ratios, highlighting a concerning trend in the industry [1][6] Group 2: Industry Response - In response to these challenges, banks are shifting towards middle-income business models, with a notable resurgence in insurance and banking (银保) business, which accounted for over 50% of income for the first time in 15 years [2][21] - Major banks like China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank reported over 40% year-on-year growth in insurance income [2] Group 3: Asset and Liability Management - The continuous decline in net interest margins is attributed to a combination of low asset yields and rigid liability costs, exacerbated by insufficient effective credit demand and external pressures from bond market financing [10][12] - Banks are adjusting their asset-liability strategies to cope with narrowing margins, focusing on optimizing their loan structures and reducing costs [13] Group 4: Asset Quality and Risk - The total non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was reported at 34,342 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a slight decrease from Q1 [15] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 211.97%, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capabilities [15] - However, the non-performing loan generation rate and overdue loan rates are on the rise, suggesting ongoing pressure on asset quality [17][19] Group 5: Middle-Income Business Growth - The middle-income business segment is showing signs of recovery, with non-interest income growing by 6.97% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reversing a downward trend [21][22] - The insurance business is becoming a key growth driver, with banks leveraging their networks to enhance insurance sales [23]

Core Points - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 1.2% on September 12, with Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - The closing prices and changes for key rural commercial banks are as follows: - Zijin Bank: 2.96, -0.34% - Changshu Bank: 7.60, -0.39% - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank: 8.70, -0.46% - Zhangjiagang Bank: 4.48, -0.67% - Ruifeng Bank: 5.55, -0.72% - Sunong Bank: 5.25, -0.94% - Wuxi Bank: 6.03, -1.15% - Qingnong Bank: 3.28, -1.20% - Jiangyin Bank: 4.86, -1.42% - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank: 6.49, -1.96% [1] Capital Flow - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 118 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 108 million yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for individual banks shows: - Ruifeng Bank: Main funds -189.46 thousand, Retail funds +66.01 thousand - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank: Main funds -543.89 thousand, Retail funds +117.60 thousand - Zijin Bank: Main funds -740.49 thousand, Retail funds +762.08 thousand - Wuxi Bank: Main funds -831.59 thousand, Retail funds +881.56 thousand - Zhangjiagang Bank: Main funds -1087.07 thousand, Retail funds +1526.36 thousand - Qingnong Bank: Main funds -1198.02 thousand, Retail funds +899.30 thousand - Sunong Bank: Main funds -1200.33 thousand, Retail funds +764.96 thousand - Jiangyin Bank: Main funds -1627.70 thousand, Retail funds +850.10 thousand - Changshu Bank: Main funds -1722.64 thousand, Retail funds +2455.71 thousand - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank: Main funds -2678.88 thousand, Retail funds +2524.52 thousand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of A-share listed rural commercial banks in the first half of 2025 shows overall profit growth despite a declining net interest margin, with asset quality improving amidst increasing uncertainties [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - All 10 A-share listed rural commercial banks reported year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a general decline in net interest margins [1]. - Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank led the growth with a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan and a net profit of 846 million yuan, representing increases of 10.45% and 16.63% respectively [2]. - Changshu Rural Commercial Bank achieved revenue and net profit growth rates of 10.1% and 13.51%, maintaining a relatively high net interest margin of 2.58% [2]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - The net interest margin for several banks has shown a slowing decline, with some banks like Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank experiencing a minimal drop of only 0.08 percentage points [4]. - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank had the smallest decline in net interest margin, reducing by just 0.03 percentage points, while still achieving a 5.98% increase in interest income [4]. - However, banks like Zhangjiagang and Suzhou Rural Commercial Banks faced larger declines in net interest margins, with drops of 0.19 and 0.16 percentage points respectively [5]. Group 3: Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for rural commercial banks improved overall, with the average NPL ratio at 2.77%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the end of 2024 [9]. - Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank showed the most significant improvement, with its NPL ratio decreasing by 0.04 percentage points to 1.75% [10]. - Despite improvements, challenges remain in retail loan quality, with some banks experiencing rising NPL ratios in specific sectors [11]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Banks are adjusting their business structures and pricing strategies to mitigate the impact of declining net interest margins, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank effectively managing interest costs [6][7]. - The focus on enhancing non-interest income has been a key strategy, with banks like Changshu Rural Commercial Bank integrating financial and non-financial services to strengthen their competitive edge [7]. - Digital tools and data analytics are being utilized by banks to enhance customer targeting and service delivery, particularly in small and micro-business financing [12][13].

Core Insights - The agricultural commercial bank sector experienced a rise of 0.58% on September 10, with Yunnan Agricultural Commercial Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Stock Performance - Yunnan Agricultural Commercial Bank (601077) closed at 6.66, with an increase of 1.83% and a trading volume of 1.061 million shares, amounting to 702 million yuan [1] - Jiangyin Bank (002807) closed at 4.92, up 1.44%, with a trading volume of 435,400 shares and a turnover of 213 million yuan [1] - Zijin Bank (601860) closed at 2.96, up 1.37%, with a trading volume of 570,400 shares and a turnover of 168 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Zhangjiagang Bank (002839) at 4.48 (+0.90%), and Wuxi Bank (600908) at 6.08 (+0.83%) [1] Capital Flow - The agricultural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 34.71 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 51.18 million yuan [1] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks indicates that Changshu Bank (601128) had a net inflow of 20.62 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 15.01 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Yunnan Agricultural Commercial Bank (601077) experienced a significant net outflow of 42.29 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a retail net inflow of 36.90 million yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the contribution of financial asset disposal gains from AC and OCI accounts to revenue reached 5.2%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. - The investment income growth rate for 42 listed banks was 23.6%, with AC, OCI, and TPL gains showing year-on-year growth rates of 134.7%, 79.0%, and -8.4% respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the increase in disposal gains does not necessarily indicate a significant increase in asset disposal scale, as market conditions and strategies vary among banks [2]. Financial Asset Disposal Gains - The contribution of AC and OCI financial asset disposal gains to revenue was 5.2%, up 2.9 percentage points from 2024, with AC asset disposal gains contributing 2.6% [2]. - Among different types of banks, rural commercial banks had the highest contribution from AC and OCI disposal gains, reaching 11.0%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Specific banks such as Jiangyin Bank, Sunong Bank, and Zijin Bank had high disposal gain ratios relative to their revenue, at 28.9%, 26.7%, and 22.7% respectively [2]. OCI Floating Profit Situation - The overall OCI floating profit decreased compared to the end of the previous year, accounting for 12.6% of the estimated profit for 2025 [3]. - Major state-owned banks like CCB and ABC reported significant OCI floating profits, with balances exceeding 30 billion [3]. - The average contribution of OCI floating profits to profits for city and rural commercial banks was notably high, with Ningbo Bank's ratio reaching 35% [3][6]. Sector Trends - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on real estate and consumer spending [7]. - The report suggests a focus on banks with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank, and those with dividend strategies like Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank [7]. - Attention is also drawn to banks with potential convertible bond conversion expectations, including Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank [7].