Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious, with the black - series commodities reducing positions on the pre - holiday disk and price fluctuations decreasing. The current contradictions in iron ore are not significant. The supply of iron ore shipments has recovered to a medium - high level, and steel mills are replenishing stocks before the holiday, resulting in a tight balance in overall demand. On the demand side, the marginal profit of steel mills has slightly recovered, the inventory of rebar has marginally eased, and the contradictions have been alleviated, but increased rainfall in the South is unfavorable for demand. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are both strong, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and future attention should be paid to whether the demand can further increase. Currently, overseas orders support the price. After the interest rate cut, trading is expected to be closer to the fundamentals, with prices expected to fluctuate without a strong trend. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **October Price Forecast for Iron Ore 11 Contract**: The price forecast range is 780 - 850, the current at - the - money option IV is 20.94%, and the historical volatility quantile is 11.3% [2] - **October Iron Ore Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies are to directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2511, short, 25%, entry range 840 - 850) and sell call options to collect premiums (I2511 - C - 850, 30%, sell on rallies) [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are to directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2511, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and sell out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2511 - P - 790, 40%, sell on rallies) [2] Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: Before the holiday, the market was cautious, with reduced positions in the black - series commodity market and smaller price fluctuations. Iron ore supply has recovered, and steel mills are restocking, maintaining a tight balance in demand. Steel mill profits have slightly recovered, and rebar inventory has eased, but southern rainfall affects demand. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are strong, but inventory is accumulating. After the interest rate cut, trading will be more fundamental - based, and prices will fluctuate without a clear trend. Position reduction is recommended before the holiday [3] - **Positive Factors** - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and two more cuts are expected this year, with global financial conditions being loose and the manufacturing PMI rising [4] - Hot - rolled coils have regained export profits after price drops [4] - Steel mill profits have slightly recovered [4] - Rebar inventory has decreased, and industrial chain contradictions have not further accumulated, releasing some risks [4] - There are expectations of economic stimulus due to weak domestic economic data [4] - **Negative Factors** - Steel inventory remains high under high hot - metal production, putting pressure on the fundamentals [4] - Iron ore shipments have increased, and non - mainstream shipments are at a seasonal high [4] Iron Ore Price and Index Data - **Contract Closing Prices and Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 803.5, the 05 contract at 783, and the 09 contract at 762. The 01 basis was - 9.5, the 05 basis was 11, and the 09 basis was 32 [5][6] - **Spot Prices**: On September 24, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794, Rizhao Carajás fines was 929, and Rizhao Super Special fines was 720 [6] - **Platts Index**: On September 23, 2025, the Platts 58% index was 95.3, the Platts 62% index was 106.2, and the Platts 65% index was 120.15 [7] Iron Ore Fundamental Data - **Production and Transportation Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 339.17, the global shipment volume was 3324.8, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2693.3, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 2675 [13] - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08, the 247 - steel mill inventory was 9309.43, and the 247 - steel mill available days were 31.3 [13]

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 1.56% on September 24, with Lakala leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the diversified financial sector included Sichuan Shuangma, which rose by 4.65% to a closing price of 22.05, and Yalian Development, which increased by 4.52% to 5.32 [1] - Lakala, on the other hand, saw a decrease of 2.05%, closing at 23.93, with a trading volume of 483,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.156 billion [2] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 118 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 191 million [2][3] - Among individual stocks, Zhongliang Capital had a net inflow of 60.1 million from institutional investors, while it experienced a net outflow of 34.3 million from retail investors [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content **Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies** - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders with high oil and fat inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - **Refineries with low procurement inventory**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - **Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices**: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. **Market Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. **Market Price Data** - **Palm Oil**: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月24日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格整体呈现冲高回落走势，反映为上涨动能的减弱。盘中伦敦金最高上摸3791附近，伦敦银亦 接近44.5。随着国内国庆假期临近，以及前期贵金属涨幅较大，建议前多减仓过节，节中将公布重磅美非农 与ISM PMI数据。周边美指与1Y美债收益率震荡，10Y美债收益率则回落，比特币延续弱势，原油回升一定 程度增加短期通胀压力并抑制近端货币政策降息预期与贵金属价格。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3796.9 美元/盎司，+0.58%；美白银2512合约收报于44.265美元/盎司，+0.12%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收 855.44元/克，+1.%；SHFE白银2512合约收10349元/千克，+1.78%。消息面，周三凌晨美联储主席鲍威尔 讲话，指出美股估值偏高，并再次强调当前经济面临通胀上行与就业市场疲软的双重压力，但对10月是否降 息仍未作出明确表态。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10月维持利率不变概率7%，降息25个基点的概率为93 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report were provided. Core Views - The macro - economic situation is complex. In the domestic market, economic growth is slowing, but policy support is in place. The stock market is strong, while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation center is around 7.10, and there is no sign of a trend appreciation for now. The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policies, and excessive bets on loose policies may bring risks [4]. - The stock index has support below due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the current market lacks positive drivers [8][9]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract [11]. - Precious metals may be bullish in the long - term, but the short - term upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday [12][16]. - Copper is expected to remain stable and may fluctuate slightly above 80,000 yuan per ton. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [17][18]. - Zinc is expected to move downward slowly. Nickel and stainless steel short - positions can be stopped and reduced at low prices, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - guidance [20][21]. - Tin is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities. Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday. Lead is expected to be cautiously bullish [26][29]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore is expected to trade based on fundamentals and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke are anti - falling, and it is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [31][33][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and their downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. - Crude oil is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate in a range. PTA - PX prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to try long positions cautiously. Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [43][46][48]. - PP's downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices. PE is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a weak state, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Logs are expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [70][71]. - Propylene investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74]. Summary by Directory Macro - The US manufacturing and service PMI declined in September, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The Fed's interest - rate cut path has differences, and the market is concerned about the PCE data [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1133 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1057, up 49 basis points. The RMB is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated yesterday, and the large - cap index was relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6][8]. Bond - The bond market fell yesterday, and it is recommended to use a volatile trading idea and buy long positions at intervals [9]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures price fell back. The spot price of some shipping companies increased, while others decreased. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 12 - contract can be considered for long positions [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose and then fell on Tuesday. The upward momentum weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday. The medium - and long - term may be bullish, and the short - term may be adjusted [12][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price remained stable at around 80,000 yuan per ton, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly above this level [17]. - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by macro - policies and fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to be weak [19]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to move downward slowly, and it is recommended to buy put options or sell call options [20][21]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to stop and reduce short positions at low prices [21][22]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The price is expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday [26][27]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be cautiously bullish [29]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of crude steel has shrunk, and the demand has improved slightly. The inventory is still at a high level, and the price is expected to fluctuate [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has recovered, and the demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is anti - falling. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The cost provides support, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded, but it is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - **LPG**: The price rebounded with emotions and crude oil, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [41][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The price declined due to pessimistic emotions. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously [44][46]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [48]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices [51]. - **PE**: The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The price fell, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - **Rubber**: It is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [70]. - **Logs**: The price is expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [71]. - **Propylene**: Investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74].

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/24 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 新季供应压力驱动价格下行，东北多地深加工企业继续下调新粮报价，华北地区深加工（除山东）价格走 弱； 玉米需求端整体稳定，进口压力有限； 当前玉米上量有限，现货价格下跌幅度较小，使得提前收获地区获益，后期价格压力将逐步增加； 当前基差处于偏高水平，随着进入新粮大量上市，基差面临回落风险； 【利多解读】 1、山东深加工企业报价坚挺； 2、8月进口玉米保持地量水平，替代压力较小； 3、近日，国家粮食和物资储备局举行2025年全国秋粮收购暨粮食产业项目推进工作会议。会议指出，抓好粮 食收购和项目建设，对保持粮食市场平稳运行、加快粮食产业高质量发展具有重要意义。做好秋粮收购工 作，需在提升收储能力等五方面下功夫，坚决守住农民"种粮卖得出"的底线，不断提升国家粮食安全保障能 力。 【利空解读】 1、玉米处于新季收获上市期，供应的阶段性宽松对价格造成压力； 2、多地深加工企业下调新粮收购报价，尤其黑龙江地区新粮报价较初期有连续下跌过 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. plans to issue up to approximately 155 million shares for overseas listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, as per the notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2] - Nanhua Futures was established in 1996 and is a comprehensive global financial services platform, providing services including domestic futures brokerage, risk management, wealth management, and overseas financial services [2] - As of September 22, 2025, Nanhua Futures has a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 13.1 billion [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, Nanhua Futures ranks 8th among all futures companies in China by total revenue in 2023, and 1st among non-financial institution-related futures companies [2] - In terms of futures brokerage commission income for 2023, Nanhua Futures ranks 12th among all futures companies and 1st among non-financial institution-related futures companies [2] - Nanhua Futures ranks 1st among all futures companies in China by overseas income and 2nd in return on equity (ROE) among all 53 listed securities and futures companies in China for the first nine months of 2024 [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price range forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current volatility historical percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price range forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.91% - Current volatility historical percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel in the Shanghai market oscillated weakly during the day, and the non - ferrous metals market as a whole was weak - In the nickel ore market, the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies on September 18, with an estimated impact on nickel ore quotas of less than 3 million tons. As the quota approval for the next year approaches in October, concerns about the stability of ore supply have increased - In the new energy sector, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban, and the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026 have been announced, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries - Nickel iron prices have remained firm recently, with no downward driving force under cost support - In the stainless steel market, there has been repeated bargaining during the week. The spot market is in a contradiction, trying to support prices but facing weak demand. The wait - and - see sentiment is strong before the holiday [3] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, including elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - Stainless steel has seen continuous de - stocking for several weeks - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - High inventory of pure nickel - Sino - US tariff disturbances persist - Uncertainty about the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented - Weak spot trading in the stainless steel market [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - Closing prices of nickel futures contracts decreased, with the main contract closing at 120,730 yuan/ton, down 1% - Trading volume decreased by 19.97% to 52,899 lots - Open interest decreased by 15.70% to 37,993 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 25,464 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 3.8% to - 550 yuan/ton [5] Stainless Steel Market - Closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing at 12,890 yuan/ton, unchanged - Trading volume increased by 0.29% to 139,017 lots - Open interest decreased by 4.71% to 123,891 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 89,008 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 7.04% to 660 yuan/ton [5] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel: 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons - LME nickel inventory: 230,454 tons, an increase of 1,554 tons - Stainless steel social inventory: 897.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory: 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Group 8: Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the furnace - starting rate in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall industrial silicon start - up rate is expected to peak, and supply pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand side: Organic silicon demand is stable, recycled aluminum alloy maintains rigid procurement, and polysilicon demand is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Overall: If supply decreases and polysilicon demand improves, the industrial silicon market may reverse at the price bottom. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are key variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Supply side: In October, polysilicon production is expected to be flat month - on - month, with a loose supply pattern and increasing futures warehouse receipts, which may suppress the market [10]. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is slowing down, and procurement demand is limited. The industry's high - inventory situation persists, and the de - stocking cycle has not started [10]. - Overall: In the short term, if there is no strong policy by the end of November, the polysilicon futures may be under pressure. In the long term, its trend depends on policy strength [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8925 yuan/ton, down 0.28% daily and up 0.11% weekly. The trading volume and open interest have different degrees of change [12]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts also show certain trends [13]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different weekly changes, with some showing increases and some decreases [19]. - The prices of mid - stream and downstream products such as industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, and polysilicon also have corresponding fluctuations [19]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of different grades of industrial silicon in the East China region shows seasonal characteristics. The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 49,963 hands, with different changes in each delivery warehouse [26][31]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,260 yuan/ton, down 1.43% daily and 6.35% weekly. The trading volume and open interest also change [33]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts have their own trends [33]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry, such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, have different degrees of change [39]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis rate of the polysilicon main contract shows seasonal characteristics. The basis of the main contract is 2170 yuan/ton, with a significant daily increase. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7870 hands [44][45][48].

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its plan to issue up to 124 million shares for overseas listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its "A+H" listing strategy [1][4] - The company aims to deepen its global strategic layout, expand financing channels, and strengthen its overseas business advantages through this listing [1][4] - Nanhua Futures' overseas business has shown impressive growth, with revenue from international operations increasing from 231 million yuan to 654 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 68.26% [4][5] Group 2 - The expansion of Nanhua Futures into international markets reflects a broader trend among Chinese futures companies, with 22 overseas primary subsidiaries and 39 secondary subsidiaries established as of June 2025 [2] - The internationalization of futures companies is driven by the need to diversify income sources and reduce competition in the domestic market, with many firms establishing overseas subsidiaries to offer a range of financial services [2][6] - The successful completion of Nanhua Futures' Hong Kong listing would make it the second "A+H" listed futures company in China, providing a reference point for the industry's international development [7]