1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish strategy for cotton investment [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zhengzhou cotton continued its weak performance this week. New cotton listing is delayed, and downstream demand shows signs of weakening. With new cotton about to enter the market, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of September 18, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.8%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points from the four - year average. The national delivery rate was 15.8%, up 6 percentage points year - on - year and 7.1 percentage points from the four - year average [1] - **Import**: In August, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. The棉纱 import volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: In August, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 104.5 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.74% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Textile and clothing export volume was $26.539 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Inventory**: As of September 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the end of August. Commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons, and industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons [1] International Market - **US Supply**: As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind year - on - year and the same as the five - year average. The overall good and excellent rate of cotton plants was 47%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10 percentage points [1] - **US Demand**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 25/26 - year - old upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 54% and a decrease of 54% compared with the four - week average. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14% and an increase of 6% compared with the four - week average. The net signing of Pima cotton was 1,928 tons, and the shipment was 1,179 tons. There were no new signings for 26/27 - year - old upland and Pima cotton this week [1] - **Southeast Asian Supply**: As of recently, India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from the same period last year. Some southern states had an increase in planting area, but due to rainfall, there are still differences in the market's prediction of India's new - year cotton output [1] - **Southeast Asian Demand**: In August, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was $3.86 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Bangladesh's clothing export volume was $3.17 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, India's clothing export volume was $1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In August, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was $1.524 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 9.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34% [4] Market Outlook - New cotton in Xinjiang may be concentrated on the market during the National Day. Downstream yarn mills maintain stable load and replenish raw materials as needed, but the overall operating rate of fabric mills has slightly decreased, and the off - take speed of finished products has slowed down. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, but its market expansion faces challenges. Last week, the weekly export volume of US cotton decreased [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New grain seasonal supply is abundant, putting pressure on spot prices later; soybean No. 1 futures are supported by short - covering, leading to a second - day rebound; the resumption of auctions increases market supply pressure, and attention should be paid to transaction volume [4]. - There are potential policy support and short - covering factors that are favorable, while the resumption of auctions is a negative factor [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction - The price range prediction for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions such as planting entities with high autumn harvest selling needs and facing short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean No. 1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is in the range of 4000 - 4050; also, sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio when the option price is in the range of 30 - 50 to increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term, focus on forward procurement management, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter, with long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: New grain supply is seasonally abundant, pressuring spot prices; futures are supported by short - covering; the resumption of auctions intensifies supply pressure [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: On September 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on increasing the large - scale yield per unit of grain and oil crops and "Three Autumn" production, which may lead to relevant policies; the short - side of the 11 - contract continued to reduce positions significantly, supporting the futures price to rebound continuously; the acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the first half of 2025 provided phased support to the market [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: On September 26, 2025, the e - commerce platform of Sinograin organized a domestic soybean auction with a sales volume of 19349 tons, and Liangda.com planned two auctions on the same day, increasing the pressure on the spot market [4]. 3.4 Price Changes - From September 24 to September 25, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) all increased, with daily increases ranging from 0.38% to 0.56% [4][6].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply - side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor - alkali profit remains above 300. Non - aluminum demand is the main rigid demand, and the pre - holiday restocking is less than expected. The future market depends on the spot price rhythm, the prosperity of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 22.00%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 39.1% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2800) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH601P2480) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Caustic Soda Futures Contracts**: - On September 26, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.26%; the 01 contract was 2528 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.35% [3]. - The month - spread (5 - 9) was - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the month - spread (9 - 1) was 133 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the month - spread (1 - 5) was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 217 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 09 contract basis was - 255 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 01 contract basis was - 122 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - **Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: - The ex - factory prices of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda from various brands in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [4][6]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: - The market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. - **Price Spreads**: - The price spreads between different grades and regions of caustic soda on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures month - spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 and 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]

南华原油风险管理日报 2025年9月26日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 隔夜原油延续反弹态势，不仅突破前期高点，还打破了此前的震荡收敛格局，但整体仍处于横盘震荡大框 架内。此次反弹主要受俄乌地缘风险推动，乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯石油设施，包括新罗西斯克港这一俄最 大原油出口港，引发市场对俄石油供应下滑的担忧，叠加多头情绪偏强且小幅增仓，共同支撑油价走高。 值得注意的是，按此前地缘驱动节奏，当前原油反弹的时间与空间已基本到位，需警惕油价重复"反弹后 回落"走势、重回震荡区间。若无重大地缘事件，原油上方空间有限，大趋势仍为弱势，中长期或维持弱 势横盘或呈向下趋势，短期多空天平变化还需盘面及供应数据进一步验证。 美国原油周度出口量季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 万桶/天 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 09/01 200 400 美国馏分燃料油当周库存环比/MA4季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 千桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures' listing in Hong Kong marks a significant milestone in its internationalization strategy, reflecting the broader trend of Chinese futures companies expanding globally [1][9]. Group 1: Internationalization Strategy - Nanhua Futures has been gradually expanding its international presence since its establishment in 1996, with key milestones including the opening of overseas subsidiaries in Hong Kong, Chicago, Singapore, and London [2]. - The company's listing in Hong Kong is expected to enhance its international recognition and brand influence, attracting more global investors and clients [3][4]. Group 2: Financial and Brand Enhancement - The Hong Kong listing will provide Nanhua Futures with new financing channels, essential for supporting its overseas operations and technological upgrades [4]. - Listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will significantly increase the company's international visibility, helping to improve its brand image and market position [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The move to list in Hong Kong reflects a broader trend in the domestic futures industry, where companies are seeking to expand internationally to escape intense domestic competition [5]. - As of June 2025, domestic futures companies have established 67 overseas subsidiaries, indicating a shift towards international business as a new growth engine [5]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Nanhua Futures' overseas business has shown remarkable performance, with its subsidiary, Honghua International, reporting revenues of approximately 231 million, 567 million, and 654 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [6]. - The gross profit margin of Nanhua Futures' overseas business improved from -5.76% in 2020 to 71.26% in 2024, highlighting its successful transition to a more profitable model [6]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite rapid growth, domestic futures companies face challenges in internationalization, including intense competition, regulatory compliance, and a lack of diversified services [7]. - To succeed internationally, companies need to enhance their cross-border product design capabilities and risk management, focusing on global asset allocation services rather than just brokerage [7]. Group 6: Insights and Recommendations - Nanhua Futures' listing serves as a model for other domestic futures companies, emphasizing the importance of balancing local strengths with global opportunities [8]. - Recommendations for domestic futures companies include strategic differentiation in market entry, investment in talent, and establishing robust compliance and risk management frameworks [8].

Group 1 - The core message of the article emphasizes the importance of financial education and consumer rights protection, as demonstrated by the company's active participation in the 2025 Financial Education Promotion Week [1] - The company has set up a dedicated team to promote financial knowledge through various channels, achieving a reach of over 1.39 million people through online and offline efforts [1][9] - The company has developed innovative educational products, such as the "Future is Promising" crossbody bag and "Accumulating Wealth" pencil case, to make financial concepts more accessible and engaging for investors, particularly students [8][12] Group 2 - The company collaborated with local authorities and media to create a unique educational experience for students, including a special "First Class" event at Zhejiang University of Technology, aimed at enhancing financial safety awareness [15][17] - A series of immersive educational activities were conducted at the company's investor education base, allowing students to experience the futures market and understand its operational processes [18][19] - The company also engaged with multiple universities, including Harbin Financial College and Jilin University, to promote financial literacy and risk management skills among students [23][25][26] Group 3 - The company aims to enhance the effectiveness of its financial education initiatives by continuously improving the appeal and impact of its activities, thereby fostering a fair financial environment [27] - The ongoing commitment to financial knowledge dissemination is seen as a long-term effort to protect investors' rights and contribute to a healthy financial market [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [2][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices were in a high - level volatile adjustment. As the National Day holiday in China approaches and precious metals have risen significantly previously, it is recommended to reduce long positions. During the holiday, important US non - farm and ISM PMI data will be released. The US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin rebounded, the US stock market fell, and crude oil continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3768.5 per ounce, down 1.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.115 per ounce, down 1.11%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 860 yuan per gram, up 1.03%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.83% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 24.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 74.4%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 31.3%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.72 tons to 996.85 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15469.12 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12.8 tons to 1161.8 tons daily; as of the week ending September 19, SGX silver inventory increased by 35.4 tons to 1217 tons weekly [3] 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Mainly focus on the final value of the US second - quarter GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give a speech; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests; at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech [3] 4. Nanhua's Viewpoint - The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. In the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down. London gold closed with a negative candlestick, and London silver closed with a high - level doji, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. London gold has support around 3700 and resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][5] 5. Precious Metal Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [5] 6. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings [13][14] 7. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - New - season supply pressure drives down corn prices. After the new - grain offer opened high, it has been falling, and there is still downward pressure on prices after large - scale listing [1] - Currently, the amount of corn on the market is limited, the decline of spot prices is small. The spot market shows the characteristics of continuous decline of damp grain and firm dry grain, and the near - month contracts of the futures market are resistant to decline [1] - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as new grain is listed in large quantities [1] - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of the expected bumper harvest and waiting for further guidance from the supply side [1] 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogues 3.1 Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 | 2025 - 09 - 24 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2158 | 2164 | 6 | 0.28% | | Corn 01 | 2134 | 2136 | 2 | 0.09% | | Corn 03 | 2148 | 2146 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 05 | 2204 | 2202 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 07 | 2220 | 2215 | - 5 | - 0.23% | | Corn 09 | 2229 | 2229 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2447 | 2469 | 22 | 0.90% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2452 | 2462 | 10 | 0.41% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2457 | 2464 | 7 | 0.28% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2539 | 2544 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2544 | 2549 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2572 | 2591 | 19 | 0.74% | | Wheat Average Price | 2442 | 2444 | 2 | 0.08% | [2] 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The market is looking forward to the later purchase and reserve policy of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation, but it takes time and there is uncertainty [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, and the substitution pressure was small [3] - The supply of old - season grain sources is tight, and it takes time for new - season grain to supplement. Shandong deep - processing enterprises generally raised prices to promote purchases [3] 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary oversupply of supply puts pressure on prices [3] - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have been lowered, transportation is difficult, and local enterprises mainly lower prices [3] 3.4 Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main - continuous Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Today's Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2300 | 0 | Shandong | 2780 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2440 | 0 | Jilin | 2570 | 0 | | Harbin | 2170 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2520 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - continuous Basis | 136 | - 6 | Shandong Main - continuous Basis | 311 | - 22 | [12] 3.5 US Corn Prices and Import Profits | | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - continuous | 424 | - 1.75 | - 0.41% | | | COBT Soybean Main - continuous | 1008.5 | - 4 | - 0.4% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - continuous | 519.5 | - 1.25 | - 0.24% | | | US Gulf Duty - paid Price | 2146.62 | 13.18 | 0.62% | 293.38 | | US West Duty - paid Price | 2004.48 | 13.24 | 0.66% | 435.52 | [24]