Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianmu Lake (603136 SH) with a target PE of 22X 17X 15X for 2024-2026 [1][5] Core Views - Tianmu Lake's revenue and net profit declined in Q3 2024 due to extreme weather impacting operations Revenue fell 14 77% YoY to 405 million yuan while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 28 84% to 85 42 million yuan [1][3] - The company remains one of the best managed and growth oriented companies in the scenic spot sector with a clear development strategy focusing on local expansion and new projects [1][5] - Future growth will be driven by the completion of the Animal Kingdom project in Liyang and potential breakthroughs in regional expansion supported by local state owned assets [1][5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 141 million yuan down 26 35% YoY with net profit attributable to shareholders at 32 86 million yuan a 42 96% YoY decline [3] - Gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 52 84% and 24 88% respectively down 3 31pct and 4 54pct YoY [4] - Operating expenses ratio increased to 18 90% in Q3 2024 up 1 48pct YoY driven by higher sales and management expenses [4] Industry Context - Domestic tourism in Q3 2024 saw 1 512 billion trips a 17 2% YoY increase with total spending reaching 1 62 trillion yuan up 16 1% YoY [3] - Long distance travel recovery due to visa free policies has diverted some tourists from the Yangtze River Delta region but demand is expected to return to the region in the future [3] Company Strategy - Tianmu Lake actively launched new products and activities during the summer including brand events like "Splash Summer" and "Aurora Night" to attract visitors [4] - The company plans to focus on local expansion in Liyang with incremental functional improvements and the launch of the Animal Kingdom project over the next three years [1][5] Financial Forecasts - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 135 million yuan 178 million yuan and 198 million yuan for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 22X 17X and 15X for 2024 2025 and 2026 [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was significantly impacted by weather conditions, with a revenue decline of 26.35% year-on-year, leading to a total revenue of 1.41 billion yuan for Q3 2024 [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company is optimistic about future growth driven by new projects and the anticipated opening of the Hu-Su-Hu high-speed railway, which is expected to enhance visitor traffic [3]. - The company is positioned as a comprehensive tourism service provider in China, with a diverse portfolio including scenic spots, hot springs, theme parks, hotels, and travel agencies [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.05 billion yuan, down 14.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.85 billion yuan, up 28.84% year-on-year [1]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.73 billion yuan, 6.36 billion yuan, and 6.78 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.13 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.68 billion yuan [3][5]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 28x, 22x, and 19x, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on customer flow due to extreme weather conditions during the summer, particularly in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 0.43, 0.51, and 0.55 yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of approximately 31% for each year [2]. - The target price has been adjusted to 13.20 yuan, a reduction of 19% from previous estimates, based on an industry average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26x for 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 369 million yuan, with a projected increase to 630 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decrease to 570 million yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 20 million yuan in 2022 to 147 million yuan in 2023, before declining to 116 million yuan in 2024 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.54 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.43 yuan in 2024 [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 1.7% in 2022 to 11.0% in 2023, then decline to 8.5% in 2024 [1]. Performance Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, which is a 15% decrease compared to the previous year, but a 5% increase compared to 2019 [2]. - The gross profit for the same period was 2.14 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.85 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on new project developments, including the Tianmu Lake Animal Kingdom project, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 405 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 million yuan, down 29% year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue was 141 million yuan, a decline of 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year, primarily due to continuous rainy weather affecting normal operations [2] - The company is actively advancing the second phase of the Nanshan Xiaozhai project and has entered a new stage of government-enterprise cooperation by managing the Pingqiao Shiba Park [2] - The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway is expected to reduce travel time from Shanghai to Liyang, potentially boosting visitor numbers [2] - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the one-stop tourism model in China, with unique resource endowments and excellent project development capabilities [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.3 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 times [2] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 134 million yuan, down from a previous estimate of 147 million yuan [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 54.1%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 23.3%, down 6.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 400 million and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 million for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.8% and 28.8% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 140 million, down 26.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million, down 43.0% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to both internal and external factors, including a focus on high-end customer segments, which have been impacted by outbound tourism and macroeconomic pressures, as well as extreme weather conditions and high base effects from the previous year [1]. - Despite the revenue decline, operational efficiency improved, with a decrease in expense ratios offsetting the revenue drop, leading to an increase in profit margins. The gross margin for Q3 was 54.1%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 27.3%, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is currently in a transitional phase but has positive mid-term growth prospects, particularly with the expected boost in customer flow following the opening of the Hu-Su-Lake high-speed railway in late 2024 and ongoing development of new tourism projects [1]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 120 million, 130 million, and 160 million for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27X, 25X, and 19X [1][2]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company’s projected financial metrics for 2023A to 2026E include: - Revenue: 629.89 million in 2023, expected to decline to 589.29 million in 2024, then gradually increase to 698.00 million by 2026 [2]. - Net Profit: 147 million in 2023, projected to decrease to 116.09 million in 2024, with a recovery to 164.75 million by 2026 [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Expected to be 0.54 in 2023, decreasing to 0.43 in 2024, and then increasing to 0.61 by 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][10][13] Core Views - The company faced significant pressure in Q3 2024, with revenue declining by 26.5% year-on-year to 141 million yuan, and net profit dropping by 42.96% to 33 million yuan [2][5][7] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 404 million yuan, down 14.77% year-on-year, with net profit decreasing by 28.84% [2][5][7] - Factors such as extreme weather, consumer environment, and outbound tourism diversion negatively impacted the company's performance during the peak summer season [2][7][9] - Despite the challenges, the company is progressing with reserve projects and expects improvements in regional transportation to boost future customer flow [2][9] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at 533 million yuan, with a forecasted decline of 15.4% compared to 2023 [1][10] - Net profit for 2024E is estimated at 103 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 29.9% from the previous year [1][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is adjusted to 0.55 yuan, down from previous estimates [10][11] - Key financial ratios include a projected PE ratio of 21.0 for 2024E and a PB ratio of 1.54 [1][10] Business Development and Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on developing a one-stop leisure tourism destination, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its market position [2][9][10] - Anticipated improvements in transportation, such as the expected opening of the Hu-Su-Lake high-speed railway, are expected to facilitate customer growth [2][9] - The company is also collaborating with local authorities to develop new projects, which are expected to contribute positively to its long-term growth [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 405 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85.42 million yuan, down 28.84% year-on-year. The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to extreme weather conditions affecting summer visitor numbers [5][6]. - The company is focusing on developing a one-stop tourism and educational base, capitalizing on the shift in consumer preferences towards leisure travel. It is actively advancing annual projects and planning light asset outputs to expand growth opportunities [6]. - The company is preparing for the construction of the second phase of the Nanshan Xiaozhai project and is collaborating with local authorities on the development of the Pingqiao Shiba area. The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway is expected to enhance visitor traffic [6][7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 570 million yuan, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, with net profit projected at 135 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. The earnings per share are estimated to be 0.50 yuan [7][9]. - The gross margin is expected to be 53.5% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 56.0% by 2026. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 6.5% in 2024 to 11.5% in 2026 [7][9].

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥141,236,319.48, a decrease of 26.35% compared to the same period last year[2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥32,861,989.57, down 42.96% year-on-year[2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for Q3 2024 was ¥32,291,118.51, a decrease of 41.38% compared to the previous year[2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was ¥68,254,461.56, down 42.17% year-on-year[2]. - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were ¥0.13, a decrease of 38.10% compared to the same period last year[3]. - The weighted average return on equity for Q3 2024 was 2.34%, a decrease of 2.16 percentage points year-on-year[3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year-to-date period was ¥85,424,503.25, down 28.84% year-on-year[2]. - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 404,649,241.93, a decrease of 14.74% compared to CNY 474,796,023.10 in the same period of 2023[12]. - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 100,657,056.24, a decline of 28.00% compared to CNY 139,688,567.46 in the same period of 2023[14]. - Earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 were CNY 0.32, down from CNY 0.44 in the same period of 2023[15]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q3 2024 were ¥1,784,630,418.01, an increase of 2.55% compared to the end of the previous year[3]. - Total current assets as of September 30, 2024, amount to 685,127,459.81 CNY, an increase from 596,995,654.60 CNY as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of approximately 14.7%[10]. - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, are 1,784,630,418.01 CNY, compared to 1,740,232,880.56 CNY at the end of 2023, showing a slight increase of about 2.5%[11]. - Total liabilities increased to 256,828,336.42 CNY from 202,867,441.32 CNY, marking an increase of approximately 26.5%[11]. - Total liabilities increased to CNY 337,565,587.03 in Q3 2024, compared to CNY 291,846,322.92 in Q3 2023, reflecting a growth of 15.66%[12]. - Total equity attributable to shareholders was CNY 1,319,963,578.09, slightly down from CNY 1,332,520,857.74 in the previous year[12]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was ¥124,424,356.65, a decrease of 47.3% compared to ¥235,694,259.92 in Q3 2023[17]. - Total cash inflow from financing activities was ¥285,000,000.00, significantly higher than ¥70,000,000.00 in the same period last year[18]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was -¥9,639,023.78, an improvement from -¥40,074,836.09 in Q3 2023[18]. - The total cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2024 reached ¥608,204,851.19, up from ¥487,902,174.60 at the end of Q3 2023, representing a 24.7% increase[18]. - Cash outflow for operating activities totaled ¥332,072,252.03, compared to ¥301,387,704.97 in Q3 2023, indicating a 10.2% increase[17]. - Cash paid for taxes was ¥71,339,036.39, a significant increase from ¥23,904,254.17 in Q3 2023, reflecting a 198.5% rise[17]. - Cash inflow from investment activities was ¥536,883.90, compared to ¥146,100.75 in the same quarter last year, marking a 267.5% increase[17]. - Cash outflow for investment activities was ¥57,614,151.06, down from ¥74,661,749.77 in Q3 2023, showing a 22.9% decrease[17]. Operational Challenges - The company experienced a significant decline in performance due to extreme weather conditions affecting operations during the summer months[6]. - Basic earnings per share for the reporting period is -38.10 CNY, primarily due to a decrease in operating income leading to a reduced net profit[7]. - The company reported a tax expense of CNY 32,277,135.87 for the first three quarters of 2024, down from CNY 49,670,838.67 in the same period of 2023[14]. - Other comprehensive income after tax for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 1,871,953.38, compared to a loss of CNY 702,533.28 in the same period of 2023[15]. Shareholder Information - The company has no significant changes in the top ten shareholders or their shareholding status during the reporting period[9]. - There are no significant related party transactions or agreements among the top shareholders, ensuring independent governance[8]. - The company continues to focus on market expansion and new product development strategies, although specific details were not disclosed in the report[8].

会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2024 年 11 月 11 日(星期一)至 11 月 15 日(星期五)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 yw@tmhtour.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回 答。 江苏天目湖旅游股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 25 日发布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果及财务状况等，公司计划于 2024 年 11 月 18 日上午 09:00-10:00 举行 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、说明会类型 证券代码：603136 证券简称：天目湖 公告编号：2024-038 江苏天目湖旅游股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2024 年 11 月 18 日(星期一)上午 9:00-1 ...

分析师登记编码：S0130522070001 公司点评报告 · 社会服务行业 *压，关注中期储备项目落地进展 -公司信息更新 核心观点 ● 事件:1H24公司实现营收 2.63亿元/同比-7%;归母净利 0.53 亿/同比-16%; 扣非净利 0.51 亿元,同比-14%。其中,Q2公司实现营收 1.57亿元/同比-4%, 归母净利 0.42亿元/同比-4%,扣非净利 0.41亿元/同比-2%。 ● 公司酒店业务受消费力影响显著,导致1H24 经营承压。分业务看,1H24 公司景区业务实现营收 1.5 亿/同比-5.2%,营收降幅基本与行业平均接近。但 酒店营收上半年出现显著下滑,实现营收 0.75亿/同比-20%,我们认为主要与 公司酒店产品定位偏中高端,同时受华东地区消费力承压+中高端客流被海外 旅游分流影响下。 ● 成本费用刚性,1H24盈利能力回落。1H24公司毛利率 52.2%/同比-1.5pct, 主要因景区、酒店以折搓固定成本为主,客流、客单价下降导致固定成本摊薄 效应减弱。期间费用率亦因固定费用占比较高而提升,1H24公司销售费用率 6.5%/同比+0.5pct,管理费用率 14.8%/同比+ ...