海天味业(03288):微降目标价至40港元,评级"增持" 摩根士丹利 摩根士丹利发布研报称，将海天味业(03288)2025至2027年各年收入和盈利预测分别下调1%和约3%。该行 将集团去年第四季收入预测由高单位数下调至中单位数，主要是宏观经济放缓及餐饮需求疲弱。该行预料，宏 观经济的逐步复苏和管线扩张将支撑公司在2026年和2027年实现高单位数的收入和盈利增长。该行表示，将公 司目标价由41港元轻微下调至40港元，其评级为"增持"。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow consolidation, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) declining by 0.52% and a total trading volume exceeding 350 million yuan, while net inflows over the past 60 days have surpassed 2.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai government has introduced new real estate policies, reducing the social security requirement for non-local residents to purchase homes within the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, and allowing families with a residence permit for 5 years to buy one property without social security [3] - During the recent Spring Festival, there were reports of shortages of premium liquor, with some distributors indicating that they could not meet demand, leading to an increase in prices instead of the usual post-holiday decline [3] Group 2 - The Spring Festival has seen a significant recovery in restaurant consumption, with key retail and restaurant enterprises reporting a daily sales increase of 5.7% year-on-year, and foot traffic in 78 key pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% [5] - The demand for dining experiences during the holiday surged, with Meituan's New Year's Eve dinner reservations increasing by 105% and Douyin's group purchases rising by 185%, indicating strong consumer vitality [5] - The frozen food and seasoning sectors are benefiting from the recovery in restaurant consumption, with B-end product sales increasing due to the resurgence of dining scenes during the Spring Festival [6] Group 3 - The overall consumption trend during the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, showing a division between material and service consumption, with emotional consumption demonstrating resilience [7] - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its essential and domestic demand attributes, showing significant profitability resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of the index [8] - The restaurant supply chain is expected to see improvements in inventory and sales, driven by the strong performance of downstream dining consumption, which is likely to enhance the profitability of leading companies in the sector [6][7]

华西证券（002926）发布研报称，春节作为餐饮消费的核心旺季，2026年节庆效应持续凸显，餐饮消费 回暖态势明确，为上游供应链复苏奠定坚实基础。细分赛道来看，速冻食品与调味品充分受益于旺季需 求拉动。随着餐饮门店客流回升与开店节奏加快，餐饮占比较高的头部企业有望率先承接需求红利，实 现销量与收入的稳步增长。该行维持"服务消费率先复苏"的核心判断，板块业绩与估值共振上行。 商务部数据显示，春节假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长5.7%，78个重点步行街(商圈) 客流量同比提升6.7%、营业额同比增长7.5%，双重数据印证餐饮消费复苏势头强劲，终端需求韧性超 预期。 投资建议 从终端场景拆分来看，节日聚餐需求爆发式增长，美团年夜饭预订订单同比增长105%，抖音年夜饭团 购销售额同比增长185%，彰显C端消费活力;同时，春节出行链持续高景气，带动目的地餐饮需求同步 升温，景区、核心商圈餐饮客流大幅攀升，B端餐饮场景复苏节奏加快。区域数据方面，江苏省春节9 天假期餐饮收入达183亿元，同比增长11.9%，成为区域餐饮消费复苏的标杆，侧面反映全国范围内餐 饮消费的全面回暖态势。 旺季需求传导至上游，备货和动 ...

[Table_Summary] 事件概述 春节作为餐饮消费的核心旺季，2026 年节庆效应持续凸 显，餐饮消费回暖态势明确，为上游供应链复苏奠定坚实基 础。 分析判断: ► 春节餐饮消费高景气，节庆效应凸显 商务部数据显示，春节假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均 销售额同比增长 5.7%，78 个重点步行街（商圈）客流量同比提 升 6.7%、营业额同比增长 7.5%，双重数据印证餐饮消费复苏势 头强劲，终端需求韧性超预期。 证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 春节餐饮消费回暖，重视餐饮链投资机会 [Table_Title2] 食品饮料行业 从终端场景拆分来看，节日聚餐需求爆发式增长，美团年 夜饭预订订单同比增长 105%，抖音年夜饭团购销售额同比增长 185%，彰显 C 端消费活力；同时，春节出行链持续高景气，带动 目的地餐饮需求同步升温，景区、核心商圈餐饮客流大幅攀升， B 端餐饮场景复苏节奏加快。区域数据方面，江苏省春节 9 天假 期餐饮收入达 183 亿元，同比增长 11.9%，成为区域餐饮消费复 苏的标杆，侧面反映全国范围内餐 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - Premium baijiu wholesale prices have rebounded month-on-month, while discounts on liquid milk and condiments have narrowed [1][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of consumer stocks amidst a volatile market, emphasizing their value [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1700 and 1650 yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of +100 and +70 yuan. Year-to-date changes are +100 and +60 yuan, but year-on-year changes are -530 and -560 yuan [10][40]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 830 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of +10 yuan and a year-on-year decrease of -105 yuan [4][40]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price is 870 yuan, up by +20 yuan month-on-month and +20 yuan year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of +10 yuan [4][40]. - Other notable prices include Shanxi Fenjiu and various products from Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, showing mixed trends in pricing [10][40]. Discounts on Consumer Products - Discounts on liquid milk products have decreased from an average of 62.8% to 61.4% and from 63.4% to 61.7% for median values [19][37]. - Discounts on condiments have also narrowed from 87.1% to 85.0% (average) and from 88.2% to 84.9% (median) [19][37]. - Conversely, discounts on convenience foods have slightly increased, with average discounts moving from 94.8% to 94.6% [20][37]. - Beer, soft drinks, and infant formula discounts have remained stable, with slight variations in average and median rates [21][38].

机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，海天味业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股1.49亿股，相比上期减少4683.27万股。中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第八大流通股东， 持股5253.99万股，持股数量较上期不变。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）退出十大流通股东之列。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，佛山市海天调味食品股份有限公司位于广东省佛山市文沙路16号,香港湾仔皇后大道东248号 大新金融中心40楼，成立日期2000年4月8日，上市日期2014年2月11日，公司主营业务涉及佛山市海天 调味食品股份有限公司是一家主要从事生产和销售调味品的中国公司。该公司的产品包括酱油、调味 酱、蚝油、鸡精、醋等系列产品，其中酱油、调味酱和蚝油是主要产品。其调味酱用于调制烧烤调料、 火锅涮料等。其蚝油适用于炒制蔬菜、拌食粉面等。该公司主要在国内开展其业务。主营业务 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry [3] Core Insights - The current operating cycle for mass consumer goods has been characterized by oversupply, leading to declines in price and profit margins [9] - Demand has weakened since 2021, with restaurant demand growth dropping from double digits to low single digits [9] - Prices for mass consumer goods have been on a downward trend since 2021, with leading companies experiencing significant price reductions [9] - The report anticipates that prices may have reached a bottom in 2025, with potential for recovery in 2026 if demand improves [27] Summary by Sections Review of Current Operating Cycle - The food and beverage sector has faced a supply-demand imbalance, resulting in continuous price declines from 2021 to 2025, affecting prices, profits, and valuations [12] - Capital expenditure in the mass consumer goods sector grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2017 to 2022, leading to significant capacity expansion [9][12] Price Outlook for 2025 - The report suggests that prices may have reached a phase of stabilization, with indicators showing improvements in consumer price index (CPI) and food CPI [27] - Restaurant revenue data indicates a potential bottoming out of demand, with a recovery in consumer spending expected [27] Investment Recommendations - For the restaurant supply chain, the report recommends focusing on frozen foods, seasoning products, and beer, highlighting companies like Anjuke Foods and Yihai International for their market share growth and pricing strategies [42][43] - In the dairy industry, the report suggests monitoring companies such as Modern Farming and Yili Group, anticipating price improvements in the second half of 2026 [42][43]

桂军强用一个形象的比喻给出答案："我们不是在'掀屋顶'，而是用科技为传统酿造这座'百年老屋'，打 造更稳固、更坚实的地基。" 他进一步阐释，在科技创新、AI数字化转型赋能下，其实传统行业可以不断提高上限，没有天花板。 而行业的现实情况是：老师傅的宝贵经验会流失、敏锐味觉会波动，行业长期处于"靠天吃饭，靠人把 控"的"玻璃顶"之下。而海天打造的"灯塔工厂"，并非取代老师傅，而是为每一位老师傅配备了一个永 不掉线的"数字徒弟"，将多年积累的经验转化为企业独有的数据模型，确保每一瓶酱油都达到"天花 板"级别的品质。 转自：海天味业 【新华企业资讯2月25日】2月24日，广东省高质量发展大会在广州隆重召开。本次大会以"制造业与服 务业协同发展"为主题，聚集了政府部门、经济专家、智库学者及企业家代表共话发展。作为扎根广东 佛山的中华老字号企业，海天味业受邀参加本次大会，并出席了"产业融合与政策创新"分论坛。 从400多年前的佛山酱园，到全球唯一酱油酿造灯塔工厂，海天味业的"高质量发展密码"何在？海天味 业副总裁桂军强在分论坛上分享的"以数智化赋能传统产业发展"案例，或将成为传统产业培育新质生产 力的新样板。 "灯塔"照 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，将海天味业（603288）(03288)2025至2027年各年收入和盈利预测分别下调1% 和约3%。该行将集团去年第四季收入预测由高单位数下调至中单位数，主要是宏观经济放缓及餐饮需 求疲弱。该行预料，宏观经济的逐步复苏和管线扩张将支撑公司在2026年和2027年实现高单位数的收入 和盈利增长。该行表示，将公司目标价由41港元轻微下调至40港元，其评级为"增持"。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，将海天味业(03288)2025至2027年各年收入和盈利预测分别 下调1%和约3%。该行将集团去年第四季收入预测由高单位数下调至中单位数，主要是宏观经济放缓及 餐饮需求疲弱。该行预料，宏观经济的逐步复苏和管线扩张将支撑公司在2026年和2027年实现高单位数 的收入和盈利增长。该行表示，将公司目标价由41港元轻微下调至40港元，其评级为"增持"。 ...