从资金流向上来看，当日调味发酵品板块主力资金净流出6096.35万元，游资资金净流入1291.29万元，散 户资金净流入4805.06万元。调味发酵品板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920726 | 朱老六 | 19.28 | 3.54% | 1.83万 | | 3445.32万 | | 603755 | 日辰股份 | 34.71 | 2.30% | 1.93万 | | 6570.30万 | | 600298 | 安頂酵母 | 41.00 | 2.27% | 7.50万 | | 3.06亿 | | 300908 | 仲景食品 | 29.83 | 1.46% | 1.81万 | | 5329.88万 | | 002650 | ST加加 | 7.08 | 1.14% | 14.38万 | | 1.04亿 | | 603317 | 天味食品 | 11.40 | 1.06% | 4.92万 | | 5570.79万 | | 600186 | 连化 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月29日 海天味业（603288.SH） 优于大市 增速阶段性放缓，改革红利持续释放 海天味业 2025 年前三季度实现营业总收入 216.28 亿元，同比增长 6.02%； 实现归母净利润 53.22 亿元，同比增长 10.54%；实现扣非归母净利润 51.55 亿元，同比增长 11.72%；2025 年第三季度实现营业总收入 63.98 亿元，同 比增长 2.48%；实现归母净利润 14.08 亿元，同比增长 3.40%；实现扣非归 母净利润 13.39 亿元，同比增长 3.86%。 增速阶段性放缓，预计主动消化库存。分品类看 2025 年第三季度酱油/蚝油 /调味酱/其他收入同比增长 5.0%/2.0%/3.5%/6.5%，增速环比二季度均放缓， 预计受到调味品处于传统淡季以及下游需求疲弱影响。2025 年第三季度线下 /线上渠道分别同比增长 3.6%/19.8%，线上渠道增速放缓，预计主因基数提 高。 毛利率改善趋势延续，费用投放增加。2025 年第三季度公司毛利率 39.6%， 同比提升 3.0pct，主要受益于大豆、包材等原材料成本下行的红利以及公司 自动化、智能化 ...

买入（维持） Q3 业绩增速放缓，盈利同比改善 海天味业（603288）2025 年三季报点评 2025 年 10 月 29 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2025年三季报。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 10 月 28 | 日 | | 收盘价(元) | 38.40 | | 总市值（亿元） | 2247.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 58.52 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 58.52 | | ROE（TTM） | 17.32% | | 12 月最高价(元) | 48.70 | | 12 月最低价(元) | 37.12 | 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 食品饮料行业 公 司 点 评 公 司 研 ◼ 公司2025Q3业绩增速季环比放缓。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 45.85, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading market position [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 216.3 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 53.2 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.0% and 10.5% respectively. The third quarter saw a revenue of RMB 64.0 billion, with a net profit of RMB 14.1 billion, showing a slower growth rate compared to the first half of the year [1][4]. - The company is expected to strengthen its domestic market position while accelerating its overseas expansion, despite facing challenges from weak domestic demand and intense competition [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 40.0%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for the same period was 24.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points [3][4]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios increased due to promotional activities and the implementation of an employee stock ownership plan, which impacted profitability [3][4]. Product Performance - Revenue from key products such as soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauces showed steady growth, with year-on-year increases of 7.9%, 5.9%, and 9.6% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][4]. - Online sales channels demonstrated significant growth, with a 19.8% increase in revenue in the third quarter compared to the previous year, driven by new product introductions [2][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.17, RMB 1.31, and RMB 1.41 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% [4][10]. - The report anticipates a decline in industry competition and a gradual recovery in restaurant demand, which may affect the company’s inventory levels and sales dynamics [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 44 CNY per share [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.63 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.32 billion CNY, up 10.5% year-on-year. However, the Q3 performance was below expectations, with a revenue of 6.4 billion CNY, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.4 billion CNY, up 3.4% year-on-year [6][9]. - The company experienced a slight decline in Q3 revenue due to weak dining demand. The revenue breakdown shows soy sauce generated 11.16 billion CNY (up 7.9% YoY), oyster sauce 3.63 billion CNY (up 5.9% YoY), and seasoning sauces 2.23 billion CNY (up 9.6% YoY) for the first three quarters [9]. - The gross margin improved by 3.19 percentage points year-on-year to 39.97% for the first three quarters, attributed to lower raw material prices [9]. - The report anticipates a revenue acceleration in Q4, with a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 7.03 billion CNY and 7.92 billion CNY, respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of 213.53 billion CNY and a share price of 38.40 CNY as of October 28, 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 25.61 billion CNY in 2022, with projections of 29.50 billion CNY for 2025 and 32.41 billion CNY for 2026 [13]. - The net profit for 2022 was 6.198 billion CNY, with forecasts of 7.031 billion CNY for 2025 and 7.923 billion CNY for 2026 [11]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Guangdong Haid Group Co., Ltd., holding 55.36% of the shares [1]. - Institutional investors hold 2.6% of the circulating A-shares, while general corporations hold 65.6% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth slowdown with a year-on-year increase of 2.48% in Q3 and a net profit growth of 3.40%, which was slightly below expectations due to weak demand and inventory control measures [1][4]. - Despite the industry demand being flat, the company's performance in Q3 remained resilient, with steady revenue and improved profitability, indicating a strong competitive position [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in Q4, although there is increased pressure to meet annual targets [1][4]. - The company has been enhancing its market share through channel expansion to compensate for the weak restaurant sector and is looking to overseas markets for new growth drivers [1][4]. - The report suggests that the company’s platform advantages will help it to increase market share as demand improves, leading to accelerated growth in performance [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 21.628 billion and a net profit of 5.322 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.02% and 10.54% respectively [3]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 6.398 billion and a net profit of 1.408 billion, with respective year-on-year increases of 2.48% and 3.40% [3]. - The gross margin improved to 39.63% in Q3, up by 3.02 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions and enhanced production efficiency [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 was 22.01%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product and Market Analysis - The company’s soy sauce segment showed steady growth, while the growth rates for seasoning sauces and other categories have declined [3]. - In terms of sales channels, offline sales grew by 7.42% and online sales surged by 32.11% in the first three quarters [3]. - Geographically, the eastern region maintained a strong growth rate of 12.13%, while the northern region faced a decline of 2.47% in Q3 [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining healthy inventory levels in Q4, with expectations for stable growth despite challenges in meeting annual targets [1][4]. - There is optimism for marginal improvements in demand next year, which could accelerate the company's performance growth [1][4]. - The company is also making steady progress in its overseas business, focusing on localizing products and channel strategies to meet regional demands [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][22]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 21.628 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.322 billion yuan, up 10.54% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, and a net profit of 1.408 billion yuan, up 3.40% year-on-year [1]. - Despite weak external demand, the company continues to capture market share from competitors and is focused on developing new products, maintaining a steady growth trajectory [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 26.901 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5%. The net profit is expected to be 6.344 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.8% [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is forecasted at 1.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32 times [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 39.6%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and improved production efficiency [7]. Market and Product Insights - The company’s condiment business grew by 4.53% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauce revenues increasing by 4.98%, 1.99%, and 3.50% respectively [7]. - Online sales showed significant growth, increasing by 19.76% year-on-year, while offline sales grew by 3.59% [7]. - The company added 45 new distributors in Q3, bringing the total to 6,726, indicating a slight increase in distribution capacity [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth for the full year of 2025, with profit performance anticipated to be even better due to ongoing cost advantages [7]. - An employee stock ownership plan was launched in September, with performance targets set for a compound annual growth rate of no less than 11% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in sustained growth [7].

Core Insights - Company reported a total revenue of 21.628 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.322 billion yuan for Q3 2025 [1] - Operating cash flow was 3.148 billion yuan, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [1] Financial Performance - The latest debt-to-asset ratio stands at 15.38%, ranking 7th among disclosed peers, with a slight increase of 0.20 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] - Gross margin is reported at 39.97%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3] - Return on equity (ROE) is at 13.46%, down 2.94 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.94 yuan [3] - Total asset turnover ratio is 0.49 times, reflecting a decline of 0.06 times or 10.53% year-on-year [3] - Inventory turnover ratio is reported at 6.07 times [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 211,200, with the top ten shareholders holding 4.689 billion shares, accounting for 80.13% of total equity [3] - Major shareholders include Guangdong Haid Group Co., Ltd. with 5.531 billion shares and Pang Kang with 909 million shares [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.63 billion with a year-on-year growth of 6% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion, reflecting a 10.5% increase year-on-year [1] - The third quarter revenue was 6.4 billion, showing a 2.5% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.41 billion, up 3.4% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 21.63 billion, with a net profit of 5.32 billion and a non-recurring net profit of 5.16 billion, marking increases of 10.5% and 11.7% respectively [1] - The third quarter saw a revenue of 6.4 billion and a net profit of 1.41 billion, with non-recurring net profit at 1.34 billion, indicating year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 3.9% respectively [1] Market Conditions - The revenue growth in the third quarter slowed down, primarily due to pressure on consumer demand and intensified competition, as well as restrictions in dining scenarios [2] - The three main product categories—soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauce—generated revenues of 11.16 billion, 3.63 billion, and 2.23 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 10% [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the third quarter was 39.63%, an increase of 3% year-on-year, attributed to declining costs [3] - The sales and management expense ratios were 7.43% and 3.43%, reflecting increases of 1.85% and 1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The net profit margin for the third quarter was 22%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [3] Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 7.04 billion, 7.8 billion, and 8.57 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 10.8%, and 9.9% respectively [1] - The latest closing price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 32x, 29x, and 26x for 2025-2027, with a maintained "buy" rating [1] Strategic Developments - The company has exceeded expectations in expanding new channels, which could serve as a catalyst for stock price changes [4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has established a clear direction for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing foundational consolidation and comprehensive efforts, with a focus on "common prosperity" and strengthening "internal circulation" [6] - The plan identifies four strategic emerging industries and six future industries, aiming to promote key core technology breakthroughs in six priority areas through extraordinary measures [6] Group 2: Fixed Income - Er Yong Bonds - Recent market conditions have led to a decline in risk appetite, benefiting Er Yong bonds with both interest rate and spread reductions [7] - The supply of Er Yong bonds remains weak, continuing the trend of asset scarcity, while the monthly turnover rate has remained stable [7] - The pricing model suggests that the yield of 5-year AAA-rated secondary capital bonds may decline to approximately 2.07% next year [7] Group 3: Banking Sector - Precious Metals - The banking sector is expected to see growth in precious metals business despite challenges from high volatility in the gold market [8] - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase for 11 consecutive months, with a global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves [8] - The introduction of pilot programs for insurance funds to invest in gold is creating new opportunities for banks to provide services and increase intermediary income [8] Group 4: Textile and Apparel - Baoxini - Baoxini's revenue is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline in net profit due to ongoing adjustments in its main brand [12] - The company is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 2.95 billion, 3.74 billion, and 4.49 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [12] Group 5: Food and Beverage - Haitian Flavoring - Haitian Flavoring reported a revenue of 21.628 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.02% [13] - The company is expected to benefit from its leadership position in the industry and aims for significant growth in overseas markets [13] Group 6: Computer Industry - Zhongke Chuangda - Zhongke Chuangda's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 1.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.87% [15] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 606 million, 695 million, and 782 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [15] Group 7: Home Appliances - Hisense - Hisense's profitability has slightly declined, but the company remains optimistic about its long-term globalization strategy [16] - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 3.398 billion, 3.771 billion, and 4.154 billion yuan, with a "hold" rating [16] Group 8: Coal Industry - China Coal Energy - China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 110.584 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24% [27] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 16 billion, 17.1 billion, and 18.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [27] Group 9: Automotive - Huguang - Huguang's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [34] - The company is expanding its customer base and enhancing its overseas market presence, which is expected to drive future growth [34]