证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|安井食品（603345） 2024Q2 主业收入超预期，竞争抵消大 部分成本红利 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月20日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司公告 2024 年上半年收入/净利润 75.44/8.03 亿元，同比增长 9.42%/9.17%。其中，单二 季度收入/净利润/扣非净利润 37.89/3.64/3.52 亿元，同比变动+2.31%/-2.51%/+0.79%。收 入整体符合预期，利润不及预期。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590524030005 刘景瑜 陆冀为 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月20日 安井食品(603345) 2024Q2 主业收入超预期，竞争抵消大部分成 本红利 | --- | --- | |------------|-------------------| | 行 业： | 食品饮料/食品加工 | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 73.65 元 | 基本数据 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue in 24Q2 increased by 2.31% YoY, with H1 revenue reaching 7.544 billion yuan, up 9.42% YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 24Q2 was 364 million yuan, a decrease of 2.51% YoY, while H1 net profit was 803 million yuan, up 9.17% YoY [3] - The company's gross margin in 24Q2 increased by 1.44 percentage points YoY, reaching 21.29% [3] - The company's new retail channel revenue in 24Q2 grew by 43.26% YoY, driven by increased investment in emerging channels such as interest-based e-commerce and instant retail [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 24H1 was 7.544 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.91%, up 1.81 percentage points YoY [3] - The company's adjusted net profit margin in 24H1 was 10.23%, up 0.16 percentage points YoY [3] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 5.56, 6.67, and 7.46 yuan, respectively [4] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 15.195 billion, 17.319 billion, and 19.448 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 8.2%, 14.0%, and 12.3%, respectively [5] Business Segments - In 24Q2, the company's seasoning food segment revenue grew by 13.6% YoY, reaching 1.775 billion yuan, while the rice and noodle segment revenue declined by 1.44% YoY [3] - The company's new products, such as volcanic stone grilled sausages, are expected to perform well in the market, supported by the company's focus on self-built grilling channels [3] - The company's seasoning food segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over the next three years, with gross margins projected to increase from 29.82% in 2024 to 30.22% in 2026 [6][7] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024 PE ratio is estimated to be in the range of 20-25X, with a target price range of 111.2-139 yuan [4] - The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.632 billion, 1.955 billion, and 2.188 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to increase from 24.6% in 2024 to 25.0% in 2026, driven by improved product mix and economies of scale [5][6] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 73.65 yuan on August 20, with a 52-week range of 68.57-140.50 yuan [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 21.601 billion yuan, with a fully diluted EPS of 5.04 yuan in 2023 [1][5]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品加工 安井食品（603345） 2024H1 点评：疾风知劲草，速冻龙头灵活度 高、韧性足 2024 年 08 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12183 | 14045 | 15461 | 17127 | 18854 | | 同比（%） | 31.39 | 15.29 | 10.08 | 10.78 | 10.08 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1101 | 1478 | 1620 | 1871 | 2131 | | 同比（%） | 61.37 | 34.24 | 9.61 | 15.50 | 13.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.75 | 5.04 | 5.52 | 6.38 | 7.2 ...

具体情况跟大家再做一个汇报整体的大数大家都看到了我们也不再去再读了我说一下2024年半年度的主要的销售情况从整体的渠道来分经销商渠道的半年度的营业收入61亿元占比仍然达到了81%这个比例还是比较稳定的相比来讲我们经销商渠道的增长也达到12.42%的比例 那特通直营渠道半年度的营业收入呢5.18个亿下降了一个亿降幅呢这个有15.27%这个呢主要有几个原因造成的大家也都众所周知今年的餐饮连锁受到影响包括一些这个小龙虾的这个价格受到影响所以呢在这个渠道里面我们新鸿雁就是我们那个控股子公司啊 他的在这个特通的直营渠道里面减少了大概有1个亿到1.5亿元的相对的收入其中包括一些这个鸭脖子的这个连锁餐厅包括一些这个红烧猪的那些餐厅都有减少另外呢还有包括 农夫产品的相应的减少其中这个鱼粉的销售大概是下降了3000到3500万之间这一块也会受到影响那新流五这个渠道是增加的这也大概是增加了5000万左右的一个金额所以这个有两个情况主要造成跟小龙虾有很大的一个关系那商超渠道在今年上半年的整体的经营过程中一共取得了4.3亿的营业收入这里面大概是上半年下降了三个点 那到了今年的单二季度商超呢比之前略微有上涨的大概有四个点到五个点之间这 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - **Company**: Anjijia Food (安井食品) - **Industry**: Frozen food and processed food industry Key Points and Arguments Sales and Revenue Performance - **Distributor Channel**: Revenue reached 6.1 billion yuan, accounting for 81% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 12.42% [1] - **Special Channel**: Revenue decreased by 15.27% year-on-year, particularly in the catering chain and crayfish segments [1] - **Supermarket Sales**: Experienced a decline of 3% [1] - **E-commerce Channel**: Main business generated 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, while Liu Wu contributed over 30 million yuan, with a halt in business during Q2 [1] - **New Retail**: Revenue of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, mainly driven by Hema expansion [1] - **Frozen Products**: Slight decline of 1.5% year-on-year, but Q2 showed a growth of 1.36% [1] Product Performance - **Small Crispy Meat**: Revenue of 260 million yuan in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 85% [1] - **Lock Fresh Packaging**: Revenue exceeded 700 million yuan, a growth of 20-30% compared to last year [1] - **Crayfish Segment**: Revenue for shrimp tails was 538 million yuan, down 25-30% from 750 million yuan last year, with a gross margin below 6% [1] - **Whole Shrimp**: Revenue of 373 million yuan, slightly up from 353 million yuan last year, maintaining a gross margin of 7-8% [1] - **Agricultural Products**: Revenue of 190 million yuan, down from 260 million yuan last year [1] Profitability and Costs - **Q2 Net Profit Margin**: Slight decline due to increased promotional efforts and price wars in the catering sector [1] - **Share-based Payment Expenses**: Increased by 57 million yuan, with Q2 expenses at 28 million yuan [1] - **Overall Gross Profit**: Increased by 75 million yuan in Q2, but operating expenses rose due to share-based payments and reduced interest income [1] - **Tax Expenses**: Increased by 25 million yuan [1] Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Market Competition**: The company is facing intense competition, particularly in the crayfish and processed food segments [2] - **Product Strategy**: Focus on lock fresh packaging, grilled sausages, and lamb rolls as key growth areas [3] - **Capacity Utilization**: Currently at 91%, with plans for cautious capital expenditure and increased dividends [3] - **Raw Material Costs**: Expected to rise in the second half of the year, but overall impact on gross margin is anticipated to be minimal [3][4] Regional Performance - **Regional Revenue Variability**: Different growth rates across regions, with crayfish being a strong performer in East and North China [5] Financial Management - **Dividend Policy**: Committed to a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with actual payouts reaching 50% [5] - **Government Subsidies**: Anticipated recovery of missing subsidies in Q3 [5] Challenges and Risks - **Catering Sector Impact**: The overall catering environment remains challenging, affecting sales and profitability [5] - **Credit and Asset Impairment**: Notable fluctuations in credit impairment due to increased accounts receivable [3] Conclusion - The company is navigating a competitive landscape with a focus on maintaining market share while managing costs and profitability. Future growth is expected to come from strategic product offerings and regional expansion, despite challenges in the broader market environment.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.544 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 803 million yuan, up 9.17% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company continues to focus on its "big single product" strategy, which has led to stable growth in its main business [7][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 23.91%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material costs and ongoing product structure optimization [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the second quarter of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.31%, but the net profit decreased by 2.51% to 364 million yuan [5][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.38 yuan per share (before tax) based on the total share capital excluding repurchased shares [5][8]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from various product categories in the first half of 2024 was as follows: frozen prepared foods (3.833 billion yuan, +21.86%), frozen dishes (2.208 billion yuan, +0.40%), and frozen agricultural products (190 million yuan, -27.08%) [7][8]. - The company’s revenue from new retail channels grew by 27.32% to 327 million yuan, while the supermarket channel saw a decline of 3.03% [8]. Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.634 billion yuan, 1.821 billion yuan, and 1.985 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 5.57 yuan, 6.21 yuan, and 6.77 yuan [8][11]. - The report anticipates a continued focus on the high-growth frozen food sector, supported by strong management and a stable distributor network [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million yuan, also up by 9.2% [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 3.79 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, while net profit decreased by 2.5% to 360 million yuan [2] - The company plans to continue focusing on new products and channels to drive growth, with expectations for a strong performance in the frozen food segment during the peak sales season [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.05 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 15.29% for 2023, 11.20% for 2024, and around 12% for the following years [4] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.48 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 34.24%, and is expected to reach 2.13 billion yuan by 2026 [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 5.04 yuan for 2023, increasing to 7.26 yuan by 2026 [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 14.92 in 2023 to 10.35 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [4] Product and Market Insights - The company’s main business is expected to continue steady growth, driven by new product launches and channel expansions [3] - The frozen food segment saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13.6%, while other product categories faced challenges due to price competition [2] - Regional performance varied, with notable growth in the Southwest region at 33.5% year-on-year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Anjins Food (603345.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's main revenue is steadily growing, benefiting from scale effects [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.544 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9%, primarily driven by frozen prepared foods [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 803 million yuan, also reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates continued growth in the second half of the year, with a shift from B-end to C-end product growth expected [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2024, the company's revenue was 3.789 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 364 million yuan, a 3% decrease year-on-year [1] - The gross margin in Q2 2024 increased by 1 percentage point to 21.29%, attributed to raw material cost optimization and scale effects [1] - The report highlights that the company is adjusting its product strategy to optimize gross margins and smooth out market fluctuations [2] Distribution Channels - The company has a solid foundation in its distribution channels, with revenue from distributors in Q2 2024 reaching 3.084 billion yuan, a 4% year-on-year increase [2] - The report notes a net increase of 96 distributors, bringing the total to 2060 by the end of H1 2024 [2] - The new retail channel saw a significant increase in revenue, up 43% year-on-year, primarily due to new business development with Hema [2] Future Outlook - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 5.56, 6.57, and 7.59 yuan respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 11, and 10 times [3] - The company is expected to maintain stable operations while expanding its scale, particularly in the frozen food segment [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for performance elasticity as market conditions stabilize, particularly for the new product lines [3]

华福证券 安井食品（603345.SH） Q2 主业稳健增长，H2 旺季改善可期 事件：公司披露 2024 年半年度业绩：24 年 H1 公司实现营收 75.44 亿元， 同比+9.42%；归母净利润 8.03 亿元，同比+9.17%；扣非归母净利润 7.72 亿元，同比+11.11%。其中，24Q2 营收 37.89 亿元，同比+2.31%；归母 净利润 3.64 亿元，同比-2.51%；扣非归母净利润 3.52 亿元，同比+0.79%。 分红方面，H1 公司拟每股派发现金股利 1.38 元（含税），占同期归母 净利润比例 50.2%；再叠加回购金额，约占归母净利润 57.5%。 安井主业稳健扩张，新宏业、新柳伍影响销售表现 分产品看，Q2 速冻面米/调制食品/菜肴制品/农副产品营收分别同比 -1.44%/+13.6%/-7.08%/-23.77%，而子公司新宏业、新柳伍 H1 营收分别同 比-26.8%/-9.68%，主要系期间小龙虾等水产销售价格持续低迷等所致；此 外，休闲食品 H1 同比-94.5%，主要系调整常温食品业务所致。分渠道看， Q2 经 销 商 / 商 超 / 特 通 直 营 / 电 商 ...

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