Accessible version Greater China Industrials China humanoid robot & EV supply chain tour takeaways Auto/EV OEMs & supply chain: eyes on demand/costs The weak auto/EV sales trend is extendng into January, given EV purchase tax subsidy has been cut and trade-in subsidy has not been fully in place yet. In light of this, Chery plans new model launches after Lunar New Year in February. Impacts from recent BOM costs hike is another key question: Chery estimates c. RMB4.5-5k BOM costs increase for EV models, facto ...

伯特利深度：线控底盘领军者 人形机器人未来的中坚力量【国联民生汽车 崔琰团队】 ————————————— 我们发布# 伯特利深度报告，详细探讨： ————————————— 从汽车到机器人 技术沉淀的必然延伸 公司于汽车业务端积累了深厚的经验，具备精密零部件制造、机电液一体化系统设计、传感器设计融合与软件设 计开发、底盘调教等系统方案设计、规模化量产及供应链管理等能力，已完成产业基金、丝杠及电机子公司的布 局，未来基于汽车端深厚技术积淀的必然延伸，有望逐渐成长为人形机器人核心零部件及关节模组、控制模组、 视觉模组等领域的中坚力量。 智能化&电动化齐驱 全球化再进一步 1）伯特利成长为国内汽车制动系统龙头的核心壁垒是什么？ 2）伯特利汽车端业务实现ASP不断增长、收入持续新高的原因是什么？ 3）伯特利从汽车行业拓展至机器人，核心优势在哪里、未来机器人业务如何展望？ 伯特利深度：线控底盘领军者 人形机器人未来的中坚力量【国联民生汽车 崔琰团队】 ————————————— 我们发布# 伯特利深度报告，详细探讨： 1）伯特利成长为国内汽车制动系统龙头的核心壁垒是什么？ 2）伯特利汽车端业务实现ASP不断增长、收入 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司点评 买入/维持 伯特利(603596) 目标价: 昨收盘:54.85 L3 元年 EMB 加速量产，人形机器人丝杠、电机打造第二增长曲 线 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 25/1/27 25/4/9 25/6/20 25/8/31 25/11/11 26/1/22 伯特利 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 6.07/6.07 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 332.67/332.67 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 67.4/43.22 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <>--2025-11-01 <<智驾 L3 时代的底盘 XYZ 智驾核心 供应商>>--2025-09-17 <<智驾平权时代：做强 X 向，做大 Y+Z 向>>--2025-04-30 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 事件：早前国内首批 L3 级自动驾驶牌照开始批量发放，2026 年启动 L3 ...

分析师 1: 各位尊敬的投资者，大家晚上好！非常感谢大家在这个周一晚上黄金时间段拨冗参加我们 国新汽车团队组织的这个汽车 2026 年的策略汇报其实这也不能说是我们这个年度策略的 一个汇报，因为我们其实针对一个 2026 年，就是去年 25 年 11 月写的这个年度策略，做 了一个补充的这个策略专题。对 20 年，就 2005 年到 2025 年的 20 年汽车行情，还有汽 车增速做了一个复盘。然后有定量也有定性的这个分析，包括对 26 年做了一个展望，所 以这次的会议，首先我们是会快速地过一下我们这个策略复盘的这个要点，得到了一些什 么结论？ 第三个就是我们也复盘了一下 2018 年，因为 2026 年哦，在我们看来其实跟 2018 年有 点相似，因为 2018 年也是一个就是补贴政策，各种政策退出的一个年份。然后汽车行业， 也出现了首年的这个销量下滑，那是 2018 年发生的事情。然后 2026 年，我们觉得也是 有销量下行的压力的。其实政策也退出。那对比 2018 年，其实汽车板块是在 2018 年的 6，6 月份开始出现销量的下滑，但是汽车行情是 3 月份就开始跌了。然后到 11 到 10 月 份的时 ...

摘要 ► 深耕制动系统 剑指线控底盘 产品端：公司为国内汽车制动系统龙头，现已形成机械制动+智能电控+机械转向+轻量化结构件四大业务布局，剑指线控底盘。客户端：公司客户结构从机械制动的奇瑞、吉 利、长安等自主品牌，逐步向智能电控的蔚小理、赛力斯、东风日产、江铃福特及轻量化的上汽通用、北美通用、欧洲沃尔沃等新势力、合资及全球化平台升级。 ► 智能化&电动化齐驱 全球化再进一步 1）智能化：公司为自主线控制动龙头，拓展业务至主动悬架领域，2022年收购浙江万达布局电控转向，打造线控底盘平台型布局，受益于行业智能化渗透率的持续提升。2）电 动化：公司是国内首家实现EPB量产的供应商，后拓展业务至ESC/电动尾门等领域，把握行业电动化机遇。3）全球化：公司2020年开始筹建墨西哥生产基地，2023实现墨西哥 基地投产，2024年起筹划摩洛哥基地，全球化持续加深。 ► 产业化拐点确立 三重驱动开启人形机器人万亿赛道 技术端，大模型突破通用性瓶颈，DeepSeek低成本训练范式加速AGI落地；产业端，特斯拉、英伟达、华为等科技巨头密集布局；政策端，政府工作报告明确，培育具身智能等 未来产业，大力发展智能机器人。我们预计2 ...

伯特利（603596.SH）深度报告 线控底盘领军者 人形机器人未来的中坚力量 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 9,937 | 12,875 | 16,441 | 20,831 | | 增长率（%） | 33.0 | 29.6 | 27.7 | 26.7 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 1,209 | 1,508 | 1,867 | 2,314 | | 增长率（%） | 35.6 | 24.7 | 23.8 | 23.9 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.99 | 2.49 | 3.08 | 3.81 | | PE | 29 | 23 | 19 | 15 | | PB | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 23 日收盘价） 2026 年 01 月 26 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | ...

伯特利（603596.SH）深度报告 线控底盘领军者 人形机器人未来的中坚力量 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 9,937 | 12,875 | 16,441 | 20,831 | | 增长率（%） | 33.0 | 29.6 | 27.7 | 26.7 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 1,209 | 1,508 | 1,867 | 2,314 | | 增长率（%） | 35.6 | 24.7 | 23.8 | 23.9 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.99 | 2.49 | 3.08 | 3.81 | | PE | 29 | 23 | 19 | 15 | | PB | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 23 日收盘价） 2026 年 01 月 26 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a transition from "stable volume and slow price" to "price increase and stable volume" for the automotive industry in 2026 [6][16] - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles is expected to show positive growth in 2026, supported by policies such as scrapping and replacement subsidies [27][28] - The report highlights that the average selling price (ASP) of passenger vehicles is projected to increase, with a notable rise in ASP observed in December 2025 [16][20] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - In December 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 2.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [16] - The total sales for 2025 were 23.052 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [16] - The report notes that December's performance was significantly below seasonal norms, attributed to the suspension of scrapping subsidies in some regions [16] 2. ASP Trends and Market Expectations - The ASP for passenger vehicles in 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with December 2025 ASP increasing by 13.7% compared to the previous year [16][20] - The report anticipates that the continuation of scrapping policies will enhance the sales of mid-to-high-end vehicles, contributing to price increases [27] 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Considerations - As of December 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles stood at 4.708 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.48 [40] - The report suggests that short-term inventory risks are manageable, as leading domestic manufacturers may adjust production based on current demand [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng Motors for growth potential [6][27] - It also highlights companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Group as having potential turning points in their performance [6][27]

人民财讯1月26日电，企查查APP显示，近日，安徽墨甲智创机器人科技有限公司发生工商变更，新增 智元机器人关联公司智元创新(上海)科技股份有限公司、伯特利（603596）、富春染织（605189）等为 股东，同时注册资本增至1.04亿元。据其官网，墨甲机器人是奇瑞集团旗下机器人品牌，专注于具身智 能的研发与应用。 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5][22]. Core Insights - The change in subsidy policies has led to the disappearance of the tail effect in Q4 2025, resulting in a reduction of demand overdraw for 2026. In December 2025, the number of insured vehicles was 2.278 million, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 13.6% month-on-month. The total number of insured vehicles for the year reached 23.047 million, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 54.0%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Subsidy Policies - The report highlights that the changes in subsidy policies have caused consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in demand overdraw for 2026. The expectation is that as replacement subsidy application channels open, pent-up demand will materialize, and the domestic terminal market will trend towards "price increase and stable volume" [4][7]. 2. PHEV Market Share Tracking - The focus is on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as the "mid-level assisted driving equity" leads to share differentiation. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring configuration adjustments and terminal discount changes to understand further market share differentiation [9][16]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The report notes that the passenger vehicle inventory saw a slight reduction in December 2025, with an estimated 1.5 million vehicles in demand waiting to be fulfilled. The overall industry theme for 2025 was "emerging from deflation," with a judgment of "stable volume and slow price increase" being validated. The outlook for 2026 remains "price increase and stable volume," differing from market consensus due to regulatory changes and risk-return assessments [16][17]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, and others, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile. In the commercial vehicle chain, recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [17].