华福证券 兆易创新(603986.SH) 兆易创新:Q2 业绩超预期,利基存储拉开复苏 序幕 投资要点: 公司公告:24H1 公司实现营业收入约 36.1 亿元,同比+22%;24H1 归母净利润约 5.2 亿元,同比+54%;24H1 扣非归母净利润 4.7 亿元,同比 +72%。 市占率优先战略下,Q2 盈利超预期。 经测算,公司 Q2 营收 19.8 亿,同比+22%,环比+21%;归母净利润约 3.13 亿,同比+68%,环比+53%。24H1 消费、网通市场回暖,带动存储芯片销 量和营收增长。公司在保持以市占率为中心的策略下,利润端依旧取得超 预期成果。目前利基存储行业复苏逐渐开启,华邦认为利基 DRAM 与 Nor 景气有望持续至 25 年,我们看好兆易创新与利基存储在 24/25 年开启复苏 大周期。 主业快速复苏下,新品机遇不断。 我们认为,公司 Nor 主业复苏具高确定性,后续营收有望逐季拾阶而上。 同时,目前公司 Nor 出货量已超过旺宏,成为全球第二,Nor 主业具强α 属性。此外,公司在利基 DRAM 推出 DDR4 产品线,DRAM 业务再添动 能,我们看好公司利基 DRAM 在 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading IC design manufacturer in the "Storage + MCU + Sensor" sectors, benefiting from the recovery in downstream demand and the trend of domestic substitution [2]. - The storage chip market is showing signs of recovery, with the company achieving record shipments of NOR Flash in 2023 and expected to maintain its market share strategy in 2024 [2][20]. - The company is expanding its MCU product lines into the automotive sector and has a diversified sensor business, positioning itself for growth as market demand rebounds [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2005, has established itself as a key player in the semiconductor design industry, focusing on storage, MCU, and sensor products [10]. - It has successfully launched various products, including NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and DRAM, and has made significant advancements in MCU technology [10]. Storage Market Analysis - The company has a multi-faceted approach in the storage market, with a focus on NOR, DRAM, and NAND products, and is expected to benefit from a recovery in the storage market [2][27]. - The company’s NOR Flash shipments reached a historical high in 2023, and it is expected to continue its leadership position in the market [2][20]. - The DRAM market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company’s self-branded DRAM products gaining traction [27][31]. MCU and Sensor Business - The company has successfully launched 46 MCU product series, with over 600 models available, and is expanding into automotive applications [2][48]. - The sensor business is also diversifying, with a focus on high-end consumer electronics, which is expected to drive growth [2][48]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 74.91 billion, 92.99 billion, and 105.92 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 11.67 billion, 15.57 billion, and 19.64 billion yuan in the same years [2][3]. - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 52.48, 39.34, and 31.19 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on increasing its market share across various product lines, with a strategic emphasis on product competitiveness and innovation [2][20]. - The company’s collaboration with Longxin Technology is expected to enhance its DRAM production capabilities and market presence [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with an upgraded target price of 113.10 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 95.36 CNY [4][8]. Core Insights - The second quarter (Q2) performance exceeded expectations, indicating that the market bottom was reached in Q1. Demand continued to rise in Q2, leading to improved profitability due to price increases in storage products [8]. - The company is positioned at the bottom of the storage and MCU cycle, with production rates gradually increasing. Prices for SLC NAND and niche DRAM are rising moderately, benefiting from capacity expansion and new product iterations [8]. - The company reported a revenue of approximately 3.609 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.69%, and a net profit of around 518 million CNY, up 54.18% year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.343 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 27.5%. Net profit is expected to reach 1.161 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year's 161 million CNY [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised to 1.74 CNY, 2.45 CNY, and 3.43 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.49 CNY, 2.28 CNY, and 3.24 CNY [8]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 64.717 billion CNY, with a current price of 97.04 CNY and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 55.75 for 2024 [5][8]. Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in demand from the consumer and networking markets, which has positively impacted the sales and revenue growth of the company's storage chips [8]. - Price increases are expected to continue across various product lines, including niche DRAM and SLC NAND, driven by recovering demand and capacity transfers from larger manufacturers [8].

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月10日 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [数据日期 Table_cominfo] 2024/07/10 收盘价 97.04 总股本(万股) 66,691 流通A股/B股(万股) 66,524/0 资产负债率(%) 10.13% 市净率(倍) 4.22 净资产收益率(加权) 1.34 12个月内最高/最低价 123.30/55.20 1. 2024Q1业绩好转,存储与MCU产 品结构不断升级——公司简评报告 2024.04.23 2.《兆易创新(603986.SH):2023Q4 业绩短期承压,存储和MCU长期发 展向好 — — 公 司 简 评 报 告 》 2024.02.01 3.兆易创新(603986):乘风国产升 级产品,穿越周期引领创新——公司 深度报告 4.存储市场柳暗花明,国产替代未艾 方兴——半导体行业深度报告(二) [table_main] 投资要点 [Table_QuotePic] -57% -45% -34% -23% -11% 0 ...

2024 4E 07 月 09 日 兆馬创新 (603986.SH) _买入 (维持评级) 公司点评 持续受益存储周期,盈利能力大幅改 业绩简评 7 月 9 日公司发布 2024 半年度业绩预告,2024 年上半年公司实 现营收约 36.09 亿元,同比增长 21.69%,归寻净利润为 5.18 亿 元左右,同比增加 54.18%左右。预计指非归母净利润为 4.74 亿 元左右,同比增加 72.07%左右。 经营分析 常水稳步增长,半季度量利能力大幅改善。半季度数据看,24Q2 公司实现营收约 19.82 亿元,同比增长 22%,环比增长 21.8%; 实现归寻净利润为 3.13 亿元, 同比增长 68.3%, 环比增长 52.7%。 半季度冷利润同环比增幅显落大于营收增幅,表明公司盈利能力 得到大幅改善。 下將高求回暖及产品與材 高達增长主奏归因于:1)消费、园通市场出现需求回暖,带动公 司券储芯片的产品销量和营收增长。2)公司维续保持以市占率为 中心的繁略,持续进行研发投入和产品迭代,不断优化产品成本, 多条产品线竞争力不断增强: SLCNAND Flash 在消费电子、工业、 汽车电子等领域心经实现了全 ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 兆易创新(603986)公司点评报告 2024 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 周期拐点带动 24H1 业绩修复 ——公司 2024 年中期业绩预告点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 9 日,公司发布 2024 年中期业绩预告,预计 24H1 营收实现 36.09 亿元(YoY+21.69%),预计归母净利达到 5.18 亿元(YoY+54.18%)。从二 季度来看,公司预计营收实现 19.82 亿元(YoY+21.97%),预计公司归母净 利实现 3.13 亿元(YoY+68.28%)。 公司存货水位持续下滑,相较 23Q1库存最高点,24Q1 已下降 10.87%, DOI 从 237.59 天下降至 177.44 天,随着 Q2 存货水位进一步下降,产品 价格上升趋势明显,毛利率开始修复,24Q2 净利实现较大增幅。 TWS 耳机、AI phone、AI PC 和服务器等场景提振 Nor Flash 需求, 叠加中国台湾厂商在毛利率压力下涨价可能性较高,公司作为全球第二大 Nor ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 108.5 to 134.8 CNY based on a valuation of 62x to 72x for 2024 [2][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover its performance in the first half of 2024, with projected revenue of 3.609 billion CNY (YoY +21.69%) and net profit of 518 million CNY (YoY +54.18%) [2]. - The decline in inventory levels and the upward trend in product prices are anticipated to improve the company's gross margin, leading to significant profit growth in Q2 2024 [2]. - The demand for Nor Flash products is expected to rise due to applications in TWS headphones, AI phones, AI PCs, and servers, benefiting the company as the second-largest Nor Flash manufacturer globally [2]. - The transition of major manufacturers from DDR3 to higher-value DDR5 and HBM is expected to create a supply gap in niche DRAM, which the company aims to capitalize on by shifting from agency sales to self-developed DRAM [2]. - The automotive sector, a key application area for MCUs, is projected to enter a replenishment phase in late 2024 to early 2025, which may revitalize demand for the company's MCU products [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 3.609 billion CNY in H1 2024, slightly exceeding expectations, with an upward revision of 2024 revenue forecast to 7.969 billion CNY and net profit to 1.165 billion CNY [2][3]. - The gross margin is expected to be approximately 39% for 2024 [2]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, driven by the recovery in demand and pricing power due to inventory adjustments and market dynamics [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated price increases in the Nor Flash market as competitors face margin pressures [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, projecting significant revenue growth rates of 38.3% for 2024 and 24.7% for 2025, alongside a substantial increase in net profit margins [3][7]. - Key financial ratios such as P/E and P/B are projected to improve, indicating a favorable investment proposition [3][7].

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 518 million yuan for the first half of 2024, an increase of about 182 million yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 54.18%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be around 474 million yuan, an increase of about 199 million yuan year-on-year, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 72.07%[2] - The company achieved an operating revenue of approximately 3.609 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.69%, which contributed to the net profit growth of approximately 54.18%[5] - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was 335.98 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 275.47 million yuan[4] Market Strategy - The company continues to focus on market share and has increased its investment in research and development, leading to enhanced competitiveness across multiple product lines[5] Forecast and Reporting - The performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations and has not been audited by registered accountants, indicating potential risks in the accuracy of the forecast[6] - The company emphasizes that the forecast data is preliminary and the final financial data will be disclosed in the official 2024 semi-annual report[7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a neutral target price of 101 RMB and an optimistic target price of 126 RMB for the next six months [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing price of niche DRAM due to the exit of major overseas manufacturers from the DDR3 market, with a price increase of 20% already observed in Q1 2024 and expected to continue until 2025 [1][12]. - The health of Nor Flash inventory is improving, leading to price increases driven by supply-demand mismatches, particularly as demand from consumer electronics stabilizes and server shipments are projected to grow in H2 2024 [1][12]. - Demand for SLC NAND is anticipated to rise, with the company expanding production to meet orders from domestic major clients, thus enhancing its market share [2][12]. - The automotive sector is expected to recover, with the introduction of new MCU products aimed at AI applications, although short-term demand remains weak [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 5,761 million RMB, with a growth rate of -29.1%. By 2024, revenue is expected to rise to 7,436 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 29.1% [3][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to recover significantly from 161 million RMB in 2023 to 1,097 million RMB in 2024, marking a growth rate of 580.7% [3][20]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 385 in 2023 to 57 in 2024, indicating a significant improvement in valuation [3][20]. Company Overview - The company is a leading semiconductor manufacturer in China, specializing in memory products, MCUs, and sensors. It ranks as the second-largest global supplier of Nor Flash and the top supplier of 32-bit Arm MCUs in China [39][40]. - The company has been transitioning from a consignment model to its own DRAM products, which is expected to enhance profitability as production scales up [39][43]. Market Dynamics - The exit of major players from the DDR3 market is creating a supply gap, which is expected to drive prices higher, providing a significant opportunity for the company to capture market share [1][30]. - The demand for Nor Flash is projected to grow significantly due to advancements in AI servers and automotive applications, with an estimated market size of 215 billion RMB by 2025 [28][30]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the recovery in the semiconductor market as inventory levels normalize and demand increases across various sectors [15][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 101 RMB under neutral conditions and 126 RMB under optimistic conditions [2][10][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the exit of major overseas manufacturers from the DDR3 market, leading to a price increase in niche DRAM products. The company has shifted towards its own DRAM production, which is anticipated to enhance gross margins [2][11]. - The recovery of Nor Flash inventory and supply-demand mismatch is expected to drive product price increases. The demand for Nor Flash is projected to rise due to the recovery in consumer electronics and the increasing capacity requirements in various applications [2][11][19]. - The demand release for SLC NAND is expected to boost prices, with the company expanding production to meet orders from domestic major clients [3][11]. - The automotive sector is anticipated to recover, with the introduction of new MCU products aimed at artificial intelligence applications [12][28]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic Changes - The exit of major players from the DDR3 market is creating a capacity gap, leading to price increases for niche DRAM. The company has been reducing its reliance on DRAM agency sales since launching its own brand in 2021, which is expected to improve gross margins [2][11]. - The Nor Flash market is experiencing a recovery in inventory levels, with demand expected to rise in the second half of 2023 and into 2024, driven by various applications including automotive and consumer electronics [2][11][19]. - The company is expanding its SLC NAND production to capture market share from domestic clients, leveraging its competitive pricing and performance [3][11]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 7,436 million RMB in 2024, representing a growth rate of 29.1% compared to 2023. The net profit is expected to reach 1,097 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 580.7% [4][10]. - The report provides a valuation of 77x for optimistic scenarios and 62x for neutral scenarios, with corresponding target prices of 126 RMB and 101 RMB [4][10][11]. Company Overview - The company is a leading semiconductor manufacturer in China, specializing in memory products such as NOR Flash, SLC NAND, and DRAM. It ranks as the second-largest NOR Flash manufacturer globally and the top supplier of 32-bit ARM MCUs in China [32][34].