证券研究报告 | 2025 年 09 月 03 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm{DE}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup\mathrm{bd}}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|A 股业绩磨底与转型——深挖财报之 2025 年中报分析》 1、景气度角度，电子、家用电器、非银金融、机械设备、有色金属、计 算机、食品饮料、国防军工、通信、传媒和农林牧渔景气度向好。2、两 维度看超预期：盈余惊喜组合更新。从盈利预测变化看，2025 年 6 月 30 日至 2025 年 8 月 30 日，2025 年一致预测净利润中值上调率居前的行业 为：钢铁、有色金属、美容护理、非银金融、银行；2025 年预测净利润 中值下调率前五的行业为：煤炭、石油石化、食品饮料、美容护理、家用 电器。3、从业绩公告后首个交易日的市场表现看，净利润断层（即业绩 预告后的首个交易日的最低价高于上个交易日的最高价）现象出现 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 半导体 证券研究报告 25Q2 半导体业绩总结及展望：AI 驱动与国产替代共筑成长主线 2025年上半年，全球半导体行业在 AI算力需求快速增长、终端智能化加速、汽车电子复苏及国产替代深化的多重 驱动下，整体呈现结构性繁荣。Q2 板块营收 1336.61 亿元，归母净利润 106.30 亿元，盈利修复趋势明确。细分板 块中，集成电路制造、封测、芯片设计表现突出。持仓维度来看，25Q2 电子整体持仓稳居榜首，超配比例持续提 升。电子行业（申万一级）以18.67%的配置比例，蝉联全市场第一大重仓行业，在申万二级细分行业中，半导体子 板块以 10.47%的持仓占比领先。从重仓股市值排名来看，资金主要流向各细分领域的龙头公司及核心国产替代标的， 中芯国际（代工龙头）、北方华创（设备龙头）、兆易创新（存储龙头）等位列前茅，AI 算力相关标的如寒武纪、海 光信息也获得大幅增配。 2 季度半导体多数子板块实现业绩高速增长，三季度旺季有望延续景气。晶圆代工：产能满载+涨价启动，国产龙 头引领景气。中芯国际 2025H1 营收同比增长 23.1%，华虹半导体营收增长 19.1%，Q2 产能利用率均超 ...

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兆易创新成交额达100亿元，现涨2.03%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the selection of 240 stocks as "golden stocks" by brokerages, with a focus on those recommended by multiple firms, indicating strong investment interest in these companies [1] Group 1: Company Summaries - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH)**: A leading global producer of copper and cobalt, benefiting from rising prices and increased production, with a net profit growth of 55.49% in H1 2025 [2] - **Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ)**: A top player in pig farming with a significant cost advantage, experiencing a 952.92% increase in net profit in H1 2025 due to rising pig prices [3][4] - **AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760.SH)**: A core manufacturer of fighter jets, facing a decline in revenue and profit in H1 2025 but with strong future order potential [5] - **ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)**: The fourth-largest global telecom equipment provider, seeing a 54.39% stock price increase driven by AI demand, despite a decline in net profit [6] - **Kingsoft Office (688111.SH)**: A leading office software provider with a strong user base, experiencing growth in subscription revenue but facing high valuation concerns [9] - **NewEase (300502.SZ)**: Specializes in optical modules with a significant market share, achieving a remarkable 340.13% stock price increase due to AI demand [10] - **Haiguang Information (688041.SH)**: Develops high-end processors, benefiting from AI demand and a strong order backlog, but facing high valuation risks [11] - **Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)**: A leading producer of strong-flavor liquor, experiencing a 20.50% stock price increase despite a decline in revenue and profit [13] - **Shede Spirits (600702.SH)**: A liquor company with a diverse product range, seeing a 31.25% stock price increase amid expectations of consumption recovery [15] - **Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH)**: A semiconductor company benefiting from rising storage chip prices, with a 56.16% stock price increase and a forecasted profit growth of 41.52% [17] Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Logic - The overall market sentiment is positive for the selected stocks, driven by sector-specific demand and price increases, particularly in commodities and technology [1][2][3][4][5][6][10][11][13][15][17] - The companies are positioned well within their respective industries, with strong competitive advantages and growth potential, although some face high valuations and market risks [9][10][11][13][15][17]

华福证券研报指出，短期内，手机仍将为用户和AI交互的最主流硬件；2025年以来，更多的AI消费硬 件尝试成为"辅助手机的传感器"；从长远来看，随着语音、视频等交互方式发展，AI硬件的交互范式有 望朝着"无感化"的方向演进，AI眼镜市场蓬勃发展正表现了这一趋势。 9月2日上午，A股三大指数集体下跌，上证指数盘中下跌0.41%，银行、公用事业、食品饮料等板块涨 幅靠前，国防军工、计算机跌幅居前。消费电子个股分化走低，截至10:36，消费电子ETF （159732.SZ）下跌2.43%，其成分股兆易创新上涨5.66%，胜宏科技上涨4.38%。然而，蓝思科技、领 益智造等表现不佳，其涨跌幅分别是-8.53%、-7.34%。 消息方面，2025年上半年，全球消费电子行业持续复苏，AI眼镜行业迎来良性成长。据统计，截至9月 1日，在AI眼镜板块的103家上市公司中，有48家今年上半年业绩同比向好，多家公司在半年报中明确 表示，AI眼镜产品已于上半年完成量产交付，成为驱动公司业绩增长的重要动力。 消费电子ETF（159732）跟踪国证消费电子指数，主要投资于业务涉及消费电子产业的50家A股上市公 司，行业主要分布于电子制造 ...

9月2日上午，A股三大指数集体下跌，上证指数盘中下跌0.31%，银行、公用事业、食品饮料等板块涨幅靠前，计算机、国防军工跌幅居前。芯片科技股分 化，截至10:11，芯片ETF（159995.SZ）下跌1.13%，成分股兆易创新上涨4.07%，寒武纪上涨2.54%，通富微电上涨1.83%，北方华创上涨1.01%。然而，瑞 芯微、北京君正等表现不佳，其跌幅分别为5.89%、4.69%。 消息方面，截至今年6月底，我国在用算力中心机架总规模达1085万标准机架，智能算力规模达788百亿亿次/秒（EFLOPS）；存力规模超过1680艾字节 （EB），相比2023年增长约40%；已发布1509个大模型，在全球位居前列。截至7月底，平台运营层注册企业用户超1000家，入驻算力服务商逾100家，上 架优质算力产品110余项，接入主流基础大模型和垂类模型90余个，累计沉淀数十亿条算力监测大数据。 长城证券研报指出，当前全球AI浪潮持续加速，催生算力需求指数级提升，同时国产诸如DeepSeek等大模型加速推进，考虑地缘政治及产业链稳定等因 素，必定带来国产算力需求的持续攀升，在国产算力基础设施逐步建设充分AI芯片技术上逐步提升 ...

Core Insights - On September 1, 28 out of 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index received net financing inflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net inflow of 5.58 billion [1] - Other notable sectors with significant net inflows include telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automotive, and non-bank financials, each exceeding 2 billion in net inflows [1] Industry Summary - The electronics industry topped the list with a net financing inflow of 5.58 billion [1] - Telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automotive, and non-bank financials also showed strong performance with net inflows exceeding 2 billion each [1] Company Summary - A total of 2062 stocks experienced net financing inflows on September 1, with 89 stocks having inflows over 100 million [1] - BYD led individual stocks with a net inflow of 1.401 billion, followed by companies like Xinyi Semiconductor, Zhongji Xuchuang, Zijin Mining, Hanwha, Zhaoyi Innovation, Tongfu Microelectronics, WuXi AppTec, and China Ping An, all exceeding 500 million in net inflows [1]

Market Overview - The overseas AI chip index decreased by 1.44% this week, with Marvell down 13.88%, AMD down 3.06%, and Nvidia down 2.14%. MPS and TSMC experienced declines of less than 1% [1][2] - The domestic AI chip index increased by 11.3%, with companies like Rockchip, Loongson Technology, and Cambricon rising over 20%. Tongfu Microelectronics rose by 9.46%, SMIC by 8.06%, and GigaDevice by 5.37%. Aojie Technology saw a decline of 7.53% [1][2] - The Nvidia mapping index rose by 18.9%, with Changxin Technology up 39.07% and Megmeet up 29.09%. Other companies like Huadian Technology, Invec, Shenghong Technology, and Jianghai Technology also saw increases of over 20%, while Jingwang Electronics and Industrial Fulian rose around 17% [2] Industry Data - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the semiconductor industry from 2024 to 2030 is 12.8%, with smartwatches showing competitive advantages in health data monitoring due to screen and sensor capabilities [3] - In Q2 2025, the DRAM revenues for SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron are projected to be $12.2 billion, $9.6 billion, and $7.1 billion respectively, with SK Hynix expected to surpass Samsung in revenue starting Q4 2024 [3] - The European smartphone market is projected to see a 9% year-on-year decline in Q2 2025, with Samsung, Apple, and Xiaomi experiencing declines of 10%, 4%, and 4% respectively [3] Major Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines aiming for over 10 million satellite communication users by 2030, promoting large-scale applications of mobile direct satellite services [4] - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is being trained using a pure vision approach, consistent with its autonomous driving technology strategy [4] - Horizon's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, with market shares for ADAS and autonomous driving solutions at 45.8% and 32.4% respectively [5]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The core strategy is a continuation of the bull market, focusing on core technology assets as A-shares strengthen under the leadership of these assets [2][3] - The market outlook remains positive due to economic recovery expectations, continuous capital inflow, and policy benefits, with a mid-term slow bull logic still intact [3] - Short-term market may face technical adjustment pressure due to crowded trading in some popular sectors, but a new round of valuation-driven market space is expected to open up starting in Q3 [3] Group 2: September Stock Picks - The September stock picks include: Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (Transportation), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (Chemicals), Yake Technology (Chemicals), CATL (Electricity), Heng Rui Medicine (Pharmaceuticals), Sanyou Medical (Pharmaceuticals), Beijing Renli (Social Services), Feiliwa (Electronics), Zhaoyi Innovation (Electronics), and Pengding Holdings (Electronics) [8][10] Group 3: Industry Insights Transportation Industry: Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway - The company is a landmark project in China's high-speed rail, with expected net profit exceeding 12.7 billion yuan in 2024 [10] - The business model relies on entrusted transportation management, with revenue primarily from passenger transport and network service income [10] - Key factors supporting growth include a favorable pricing mechanism, strong travel demand along the route, network effects from an expanding high-speed rail network, and technological advancements in train efficiency [11] Chemical Industry: Tongkun Co., Ltd. - The company achieved significant sales growth in polyester filament, with a total sales volume of 9.4587 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.60% [12] - Despite a decline in selling prices due to fluctuating oil prices and weak downstream demand, the company expects profitability to improve with demand recovery [12] Chemical Industry: Yake Technology - The company reported steady growth, with a gross margin of 31.59% in 2024 [14] - The electronic materials segment is expanding, with significant revenue growth in precursor materials and photoresists [15] Electric Industry: CATL - The company achieved a net profit of 50.745 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.01% [17] - CATL maintains a leading position in the global battery market, with a 37.9% market share in power batteries and 36.5% in energy storage [18] Pharmaceutical Industry: Heng Rui Medicine - The company reported a 12.53% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2 2024, with innovative drugs accounting for over 60% of total revenue [20] - Multiple new products were launched in the first half of 2024, contributing to growth [21] Pharmaceutical Industry: Sanyou Medical - The company faced pressure from centralized procurement but is innovating therapies to enhance market share [24] - The acquisition of Waterwood Tianpeng is expected to strengthen the product matrix and enhance competitiveness [25] Social Services Industry: Beijing Renli - The company has a broad service coverage and a strong client base, with growth potential in flexible employment and outsourcing [27] - Digitalization and AI applications are expected to enhance operational efficiency and revenue growth [28] Electronics Industry: Feiliwa - The company reported a revenue of 908 million yuan in H1 2025, with a gross margin of 49.2% [29] - New business lines are beginning to contribute to performance, particularly in semiconductor and aerospace sectors [30] Electronics Industry: Zhaoyi Innovation - The company achieved a revenue of 7.356 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit [32] - The company is actively expanding its market share in various sectors, including storage and MCU products [33] Electronics Industry: Pengding Holdings - The company reported a revenue of 16.375 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 57.22% [35] - The company is capitalizing on market opportunities across various product lines, including communication and consumer electronics [36]