2024 年 05 月 07 日 ➢ 2024 年格拉默整合效果值得期待 继峰股份(603997) 事件： 2024 年 Q1 公司实现营业收入 52.9 亿元，同比增长 3.5%，环比下降 6.1%， Q1 国内乘用车批发销量 568.7 万辆，同比增长 10.7%，收入增速较低可能 系海外格拉默销售承压。2024 年 Q1 公司销售毛利率为 14.68%，同比提升 0.8pct，销售净利率为 0.25%，同比下滑 1pct；Q1 公司销售/管理/研发费 用率分别为 1.41%/9.14%/2.1%，同比分别提升 0.06/1.63/0.41pct，利润 承压主要系管理和研发费用率提升明显。 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------| | | | | 基本数据 | | | 总股本/流通股本(百万股 ) | 1,266.08/1,166.08 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 15,928.60 | | 每股净资产(元 ) | 3.53 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 75.42 | | 一年内最高/最低 (元) | ...

另一个情况我跟各位投资者稍微做个简单的汇报然后剩下的时间到时候交给大家来提问因为我是希望在过个明年的时候我就不用来再给大家猜这个数据了到时候数据我希望能够非常清晰明了因为现在目前毕竟公司还是在快速的扩张然后包括对格拉莫也进入了一个 整合的关键期所以说我觉得现在有必要帮大家把数据再拆分一下那么数据我就简单的说一下拆分了一起做的整体的情况我们实现了销售收入集团层面的实现销售收入是52亿那么同相比去年同期是增长了3.45% 那么在净利润层面呢大家也看到了可能是呃下滑的比较多就说我们实现了净利润规模净利润的话是1900万那么去年同期有有6000万呃这个那个业绩的下滑呀呃主要的原因啊我帮大家呃跟各位领导汇报一下就说呃主要呢还是因为那个格拉木拉这个海外的这个市场的销售啊是同比下滑的 尤其是格拉莫欧洲区销售收入下滑了有11.9%其中乘车座椅下滑了有7.2%那么乘车座椅这块不是乘车座椅是乘车业务方面下滑了7.2%然后我们可以看到根据VDA的数据就是德国的一个专门统计乘车销量的这么一个平台 他们的数据来看的话就24年今年Q1德国乘运车的产量同比它其实是下滑了有下滑了9%那么这种产能的不稳定其实对我们的利润的影响是挺大的因为有些 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing significant growth potential in the passenger car seat business [9][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.57 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 20.06%, and achieved a net profit of 204 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][20]. - In Q4 2023, the company generated a revenue of 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.20%, while in Q1 2024, revenue was 5.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.45% [1][20]. - The gross margin remained stable, with Q4 2023 at 15.44% and Q1 2024 at 14.68% [20]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was 1.648 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 466 million yuan for 2024 and 940 million yuan for 2025 [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 1.07 yuan, respectively [9][19]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are estimated at 36.07, 17.88, and 12.40 [9][19]. Business Development Insights - The integration of Grammer is progressing steadily, with the company focusing on cost control and service responsiveness, which are expected to enhance profitability [21]. - The company has successfully commenced mass production of passenger car seats and has secured multiple contracts for new energy vehicle seats, indicating a positive outlook for market share growth [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.01 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 13.27 CNY [15][54]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the global passenger vehicle interior and commercial vehicle seating markets, with significant growth potential following the acquisition of Grammer and entry into the passenger vehicle seating market [52][54]. - The company reported a revenue of 21.57 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and achieved profitability with a net profit of 204 million CNY, marking a turnaround from previous losses [19][54]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in earnings per share (EPS), projected at 0.38 CNY, 0.77 CNY, and 1.07 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate in net profit of 87.7% [54]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.8% and a net margin of 1.0% in 2023, both showing improvements year-on-year [22]. - The revenue forecast for the upcoming years is as follows: 25.39 billion CNY in 2024, 31.39 billion CNY in 2025, and 37.10 billion CNY in 2026, with respective growth rates of 17.7%, 23.6%, and 18.2% [3][54]. - The company’s EBITDA is projected to grow from 1.53 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.85 billion CNY by 2026 [3][54]. Segment Performance - The subsidiary Grammer turned profitable in 2023, contributing a net profit of 22 million CNY, while the main division achieved a net profit of 196 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 166.3% [19][54]. - The revenue from the main division reached 40.1 billion CNY, with a significant contribution from emerging businesses, particularly passenger vehicle seating, which generated 6.55 billion CNY [19][54].

最近一年走势 盈利预测和投资评级 作为国内汽车座椅头枕领先企业，公司产 品线横纵向拓展，我们看好乘用车座椅总成等新兴业务为公司带来 中长期的业绩增量。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年实现营业收入 243.31、287.95、324.49 亿元，同比增速为 13%、18%、13%；实 现归母净利润 5.12、9.88、12.29 亿元，同比增速为 151%、93%、 24%；EPS 为 0.40、0.78、0.97 元，对应当前股价的 PE 估值分别 为 33、17、14 倍，我们看好公司业绩兑现能力以及整合措施效果， 维持"增持"评级。 获德国宝马座椅总成定点，乘用车座椅业务向海外拓展。 为拓展 国海证券股份有限公司 2024 年 05 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) ——继峰股份（603997）2024 年一季报点评 2024 年 4 月 29 日，继峰股份发布 2024 年一季报：公司 2024 年 Q1 实 现营业收入 52.87 亿元，同比+3.45%；实现归属于母公司净利润 0.19 亿元，同比-68.23%；实现扣除非经常性损益后归母净利润 0.16 亿元， 同比-75.56%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy - A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 15.64 CNY per share [5][32]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 5.287 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.45%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 0.19 billion CNY, down 68.23% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of Gramer [14][3]. - Gramer's performance negatively affected the overall results, reporting a loss of 5.7 million euros in Q1 2024 compared to a profit of 2.9 million euros in the same period last year. Excluding Gramer's impact, the company's main business profitability improved, with an estimated profit of 0.57 billion CNY in Q1 2024 [14][5]. - The company has secured a significant order from BMW for seat assembly, valued at 12 billion CNY, marking a transition from domestic to global supply [14][31]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.287 billion CNY, with a notable contribution from the seat business, which began mass production in May 2023. The expected revenue contribution from the seat business is approximately 2 billion CNY from the sales of 19,000 units of NIO ES6/EC6 [14][5]. - The company anticipates net profits of 3.8 billion CNY, 10.6 billion CNY, and 12.8 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 44.3, 15.9, and 13.1 [5][19]. - The report highlights a strong growth trajectory in the seat business, with total orders exceeding 72 billion CNY and a clear trend towards domestic substitution in a market valued at nearly 100 billion CNY [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 15.64 CNY per share [14][19]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.8 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.8 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 44.3, 15.9, and 13.1 times [1][24]. - The company has received a significant order from BMW, marking its entry into the global luxury car seat market, with an order value of 12 billion CNY and a project lifecycle of 8 years starting from the second half of 2027 [11][13]. - The company’s revenue for Q1 2024 was 5.287 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.19 billion CNY, a decrease of 68.23% year-on-year [10][12]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 215.7 billion CNY in 2023 to 317.8 billion CNY in 2026, with net profits expected to rise from 2 billion CNY in 2024 to 12.8 billion CNY in 2026 [24][25]. - The company’s main business is expected to see significant growth, with a projected revenue of approximately 11 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 61% [12][19]. - The company has a total market value of approximately 16.8 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 15.5 billion CNY [14]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established itself in the automotive seat market, with a total of 10 projects in hand, amounting to approximately 72 billion CNY in total order value [13][19]. - The company’s strategy includes expanding its seat production capabilities and entering the global market, which is supported by the increasing trend of domestic seat localization [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [10] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 0.19 billion yuan for Q1 2024, which is a year-on-year decrease of 68.2% [10] - The company has secured a project for seat assembly for BMW in Germany, with an estimated total project value of 12 billion yuan [10] - The company is expected to improve profitability with new product launches and operational efficiencies in the second half of 2024 [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 21.57 billion yuan, with projections of 24.15 billion yuan for 2024, 29.53 billion yuan for 2025, and 33.67 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 20.1%, 11.9%, 22.3%, and 14.0% respectively [10][11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 0.204 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.322 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 114.4%, 125.1%, 118.7%, and 31.8% [10][11] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 14.8% in 2023 to 16.5% in 2026 [11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.18 yuan in 2023 to 1.04 yuan in 2026 [11] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing operational management capabilities and reducing costs through various strategies, including securing core customer projects and increasing self-sufficiency [10] - The integration with Grammer is expected to strengthen the company's position in the passenger car seat assembly market [10]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 04 月 29 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 13.03 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 16.55/9.41 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 息率（分红/ 股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15194 | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | 3113.04/9673.76 | 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持）投资要点：公司发布 2024 年一季报，一季度实现营业收入约 52.87 亿元，同比增加 3.5%； 归属于上市公司股东的净利润约 0.19 亿元，同比减少 68.2%；扣非归母净利润约 0.16 亿元， 同比减少 75.6%。业绩符合预期。 24Q1 公司业绩有所承压。24Q1 单季度公司实现营收 52.87 亿元，同环比+3.5%/-6.1%； 归母净利润 0.19 亿元，同环比-68.2%/-61.6%；扣非归母净利润 0.16 亿元，同环比 -75.6%/-67.8%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][38][39] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 21.57 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and a net profit of 204 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 1.42 billion yuan in 2022 [1][7] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, but a net profit decline of 68.2% year-on-year [1][7] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, which are expected to enhance profitability [1][15] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 24.31 billion yuan in 2024E to 32.87 billion yuan in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.2% [4][25] - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 423 million yuan in 2024E to 1.17 billion yuan in 2026E, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [4][25] Business Segments - The company’s seat division generated a revenue of 40.13 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 58.4%, with a net profit of 196 million yuan, up 166.4% [1][15] - The Gramer division achieved a revenue of 17.72 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit of 22 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity for passenger car seats and has successfully delivered 65,000 seat products to customers from May to December 2023 [1][33] - The company is establishing a joint venture in Germany with Gramer to expand its global seat business, particularly targeting European OEMs like BMW [1][33][34] - There is significant potential for domestic substitution in the passenger car seat market, as over 80% of the global market is currently dominated by foreign companies [1][48] Financial Metrics - The company’s EBIT margin improved from 1.7% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023, with expectations to reach 5.9% by 2026E [4][25] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 5.0% in 2023 to 23.9% in 2026E, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [4][25] Conclusion - The report suggests a downward revision of profit forecasts due to increased upfront investments in the passenger car seat business and the integration of overseas acquisitions, while maintaining a bullish outlook with a "Buy" rating [1][25][38]