当你的电脑开始"自己思考"，你准备好跟紧这波红利了吗？ 作者 | 木鱼 编辑 | 小白 Deepseek，一定能够称得上人工智能（AI）领域的标志性大事件。它在一夜之间，霸占30多个多家的APP 下载榜单第一名，成功登顶各大平台的热搜榜，让国产AI成为名副其实的全球顶流。 大神卡帕西深表震惊，Sam Altman发推特阴阳，国外媒体奉其为"东方神秘力量"，就连美国总统特朗普 都暴跳如雷了。 网友们也开始分享deepseek的使用心得，相关帖子、视频铺天盖地，从创作诗歌到撰写年终总结，从脱口 秀文本到策划方案，总之各种案例那是目不暇接。 风云君也忍不住暗喜，是不是以后不用苦逼哈哈的码字写研报了？搞不好一个月能完成三五个人的KPI完 全不是梦啊！ 新年开工第一天，风云君兴致勃勃的打开电脑，进入deepseek官网，准备深入研究使用方法。然而，得到 最多的答案是： 下载手机APP后，风云君得到的是同样的答案。惊人的流量，让Deepseek网站，崩了一次又一次。 当然，除了网络延迟导致的响应不及时，网站和APP等云端部署方式还存在数据安全隐患等问题。特别是 涉及敏感信息的行业，如金融领域，涉及大量的交易数据和客户信息 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the upcoming year [8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of between 872 million to 953 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52%. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 181 million to 201 million yuan, with a growth rate of 43.29% to 59.12% [1][2]. - The company's DCU products are rapidly evolving and gaining market recognition, supporting various applications in data centers, cloud computing, and high-performance computing, which is driving significant revenue growth [2][3]. - The DeepSeek V3 and R1 models have been successfully adapted to the company's DCU technology, enhancing performance through innovative techniques such as Multi-Head Latent Attention and reinforcement learning, making them suitable for complex decision-making tasks [4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 877.2 million, 1,231.1 million, and 1,639.6 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 1.18, and 1.58 yuan. The current stock price reflects a PE ratio of 156, 108, and 81 times for the same years [8][10]. Product Development - The company is making significant progress with its deep computing series products and is increasing investments in DCU software, creating a comprehensive software stack that is compatible with major deep learning frameworks [3][4]. - The DCU technology is being applied across various sectors, including education, finance, healthcare, and government, indicating a broad market application and scalability [7]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic general computing market, driven by strong R&D investments and continuous technological innovation [2][3].

再次押对主线。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 亮眼的业绩，带来的是大批资金的追随。 除了两只定开基金外，他旗下的其它产品年内均实现不同程度的份额增长，增幅最大的是其代表作万 家品质生活A（519195.OF），达76%。 莫海波咱们之前详细分析过，他是一个自上而下的选手，擅长择时，每年着重配置两三个更具性价比 的行业来轮动，超额收益有60%-70%是靠择时和行业选择贡献。 去年是莫海波峰回路转的一年，其在管基金规模逆势增长92%，来到了146亿。 （来源：Choice数据） 而背后，无非是业绩的增长和基民的蜂拥追买。 注：如无特殊说明，全文数据截止2025年1月21日。 押对方向！旗下基金平均回报33% 莫海波管理的6只基金在去年均获得30%以上的收益，平均回报33%，大幅跑赢沪深300指数（14. 7%），表现相当不错。 | | | | | 莫海波旗下基金(截至2025年1月21日) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基金代码 | 基金名称 | 任职日期 | 24年合并规模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][18]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 87.2-95.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.0%-58.5%, and a net profit of 18.1-20.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3%-59.1% [7][4]. - The company is focusing on increasing its R&D investment, projected to be 32.3-36.6 billion yuan in 2024, which is a year-on-year growth of 15.0%-30.3% [8][2]. - The CPU and DCU products are expected to expand their market applications significantly, benefiting from the rapid growth of the AI chip market and the domestic hardware industry [12][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 91 billion yuan, 124 billion yuan, and 161 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 19 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan, and 40 billion yuan for the same period [4][13]. - The company’s earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.81 yuan in 2024 to 1.73 yuan in 2026 [5][15]. Market Trends - The domestic hardware market is expected to grow from approximately 214.6 billion yuan in 2022 to 788.95 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 38.5% [12][3]. - The AI chip market in China is projected to grow from 65.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 258.2 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 31.7% [12][3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s EBIT margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 26.4% in 2024 and 32.7% in 2026 [5][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 9.2% in 2024 to 14.7% in 2026 [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected growth in integrated circuit business driven by downstream demand [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 8.983 billion to 9.53 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52%, and a net profit of 1.81 billion to 2.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 43.3% to 59.1% [1][4]. - Continuous high-intensity R&D investment is enhancing the company's core technology autonomy, with expected R&D expenditure of 3.23 billion to 3.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.96% to 30.26% [2]. - The rapid iteration of CPU and DPU products is improving the company's market position, supporting the construction of data centers and computational platforms, and facilitating the large-scale application of AI across various sectors [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a revenue increase from 6.012 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.983 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 49.4% [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 1.263 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.952 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 54.5% [5][9]. R&D and Technology Development - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 1,855 R&D personnel making up 91.07% of the total workforce, and has accumulated numerous patents and intellectual property rights [2]. - The development of a complete software stack compatible with major deep learning frameworks is enhancing the company's product offerings [3]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 172, 122, and 90 respectively, indicating a decreasing valuation multiple as earnings grow [5][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy gross margin, with projections of 62.42% in 2024 and 63.42% in 2025 [9].

Summary of Haiguang Information Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haiguang Information - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on CPU and GPU products Key Points and Arguments - **2024 Performance Forecast**: - Expected revenue between 8.72 billion to 9.53 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52% [3][4] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.81 billion to 2.01 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 43.29% to 59.12% [3][4] - Expected non-recurring net profit of 1.8 billion CNY, showing a growth of 50.48% to 65.44% [4] - **Fourth Quarter Expectations**: - Revenue anticipated to be between 2.58 billion to 3.39 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 24.85% to 63.99% [3][4] - Net profit growth may slow down due to increased R&D and marketing expenses [4] - **Growth Drivers**: - Revenue growth primarily driven by rapid increases in CPU and GPU product demand [4][5] - CPU demand boosted by increased needs from telecommunications, finance, and government sectors, with a significant rise in server localization from 30% in 2021-2022 to an expected 67% by 2025 [5] - GPU growth supported by partnerships with leading internet companies and applications in AI and big data [4][5] - **2025 Outlook**: - Anticipated benefits from the implementation of special bonds and continued penetration in key industries, leading to increased server localization [4][7] - Continued R&D investment in GPU technology to enhance computing capabilities and market share [4][7] - Strong demand for AI chips from government and internet sectors, with significant computing center projects underway [7] Risks - **Market Risks**: - Increased uncertainty due to intensified US-China relations [8] - Heightened market competition [8] - Potential delays in asset center development [8] Additional Important Information - **R&D and Marketing Investments**: - Significant increase in R&D spending, with a nearly 50% year-on-year rise in quarterly R&D expenses [6] - Increased marketing efforts for high-end processors to capture larger market shares [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve operating revenue between 8.72 billion and 9.53 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52%. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is between 1.81 billion and 2.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.29% to 59.12% [4][8] - The company emphasizes R&D investment, with expected R&D expenditure of 3.23 billion to 3.66 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 14.96% to 30.26% compared to 2023. This continuous investment supports product innovation and enhances market competitiveness [7][8] - The company maintains a leading market position in the general computing market through high-intensity R&D and technological innovation, with its CPU and DCU products gaining wider market recognition, particularly in AI applications [7][8] Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials for 2024-2026 include: - Operating revenue: 9.125 billion yuan in 2024, 12.136 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.777 billion yuan in 2026 [6][10] - Net profit: 1.91 billion yuan in 2024, 2.735 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.676 billion yuan in 2026 [6][10] - EPS (Earnings Per Share): Expected to be 0.82 yuan in 2024, 1.18 yuan in 2025, and 1.58 yuan in 2026 [11] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 174.6 in 2024 to 90.7 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [8][11] Market Position - The company is positioned as a core player in the domestic computing market, with strong competitiveness in its CPU and DCU products, benefiting from the current AI trend and domestic innovation initiatives [7][8]

Revenue and Profit Projections - The company expects 2024 annual operating revenue to be between 872 million and 953 million CNY, an increase of 270.8 million to 351.8 million CNY compared to the previous year, representing a growth of 45.04% to 58.52%[3] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be between 181 million and 201 million CNY, an increase of 54.68 million to 74.68 million CNY year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 43.29% to 59.12%[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 171 million and 188 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 57.36 million to 74.36 million CNY, indicating a growth of 50.48% to 65.44%[5] Research and Development Investment - Research and development investment for 2024 is projected to be between 323 million and 366 million CNY, an increase of 42.02 million to 85.02 million CNY compared to the previous year, representing a growth of 14.96% to 30.26%[5] - The company maintains a leading market position through high-intensity R&D investment, focusing on technology innovation and product performance enhancement[7] Market Position and Product Performance - The company's CPU products have expanded market applications and increased market share, supporting complex applications in data centers and cloud computing[7] - The DCU products have rapidly iterated and gained wider market recognition, supporting AI industry applications with high computing power and good software ecosystem[7] Earnings Forecast Accuracy - There are no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of this earnings forecast[8] - The forecast data is preliminary and subject to change upon the release of the audited annual report for 2024[9] Previous Year Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 601.2 million CNY in the previous year, with a net profit of 126.3 million CNY attributable to shareholders[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [14][17]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leader in the domestic chip sector, with its CPU business experiencing rapid growth. The DCU business is also gaining strength, which is expected to open new growth opportunities for the company [14][17]. - The company has successfully applied for multiple patents, enhancing its technological independence and capabilities in processor interconnect technology, which is crucial for AI applications [18]. - The company reported significant revenue growth, with a 55.64% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2024, and a net profit growth of 69.22% [18]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 6,012 million - 2024: 8,929 million - 2025: 12,323 million - 2026: 16,087 million - The expected growth rates for revenue are 17.3% in 2023, 48.5% in 2024, 38.0% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2026 [14][16]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,263 million - 2024: 1,958 million - 2025: 2,594 million - 2026: 3,397 million - The growth rates for net profit are projected at 57.2% for 2023, 55.0% for 2024, 32.5% for 2025, and 30.9% for 2026 [14][16]. Key Financial Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023: 0.54 - 2024: 0.84 - 2025: 1.12 - 2026: 1.46 - Price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to decrease from 259 in 2023 to 96 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in high-end processors, leveraging its state-backed status and technological origins from AMD to achieve independent iteration [3] - The company's DCU (Deep Computing Unit) is expected to benefit from the generative AI boom, with potential for significant market expansion in commercial sectors such as the internet [3] - The CPU business is poised to capture a substantial share of the x86 commercial market, driven by strong ecosystem support and increasing demand in the server market [4] - The company's financial performance is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenue and net profit increases from 2024 to 2026 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant volatility, with a 62.14% absolute increase over the past three months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2] CPU Business - The company's CPU products are compatible with the x86 instruction set, which dominates the server market with an 88% share in 2023 [4] - The x86 server market in China is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2024, reaching a market size of 306 billion yuan [4] - The company has completed product refinement in the domestic market and is expected to expand into the internet customer base, driving future growth [4] DCU Business - The DCU market is expected to benefit from the AI boom, with the Chinese accelerated server market projected to reach $12.4 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 5.7% from 2023 [3] - The company's DCU products are compatible with mainstream AI frameworks and have achieved leading domestic performance in large model applications [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 8.154 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.513 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 30.27% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.647 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.023 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 31.97% [5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 177.0 in 2024 to 96.4 in 2026, reflecting strong growth prospects [5] Industry Trends - The AI server market in China is growing rapidly, with the internet sector accounting for nearly 60% of the accelerated server market in 2023 [56] - The government and operators are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with operators expected to spend over 110 billion yuan on computing in 2024 [62] Competitive Advantages - The company's DCU products are compatible with the "CUDA-like" environment, providing a strong ecosystem advantage for AI applications [66] - The company's CPU products have strong compatibility with mainstream operating systems and software, making them suitable for a wide range of applications [80] Supply Chain and Inventory - The company has significantly increased its prepayments and inventory, indicating improved upstream supply and optimistic demand forecasts [46] - Inventory levels have risen sharply, with a 177.84% year-on-year increase in Q2 2024, reflecting strong demand and supply chain improvements [46]