计算机周观点第 33 期：底层基础设施迭 代加速，AI 原生力量重塑软件产业格局 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 杨蒙(分析师) | 021-23185700 | yangmeng@gtht.com | S0880525040072 | | 钟明翰(研究助理) | 021-38031383 | zhongminghan@gtht.com | S0880124070047 | 本报告导读： 本周，SpaceX 确认与 xAI 合并，其 100 万颗卫星申请获受理；Claude Cowork 更新 11款插件，动摇传统 SaaS 软件核心护城河；质变科技发布记忆湖产品 MemoryLake。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 计算机《未来产业之脑机接口：资本与政策赋 能，迎产业窗口期》2026.02.05 计算机《政策注入消费动能，看好 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The total market value of heavy holdings in the computer sector for Q4 2025 is approximately 23.27 billion, down from 37.36 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a decrease of about 14.09 billion. The concentration of holdings has further increased, with a higher proportion in storage and vertical applications. Overall, the allocation ratio for the computer industry has reached a historically low level, indicating limited downside potential. With the acceleration of AI application commercialization, the sector is expected to see a recovery [2][5][6][35]. Summary by Sections Heavy Holdings and Allocation - The heavy allocation ratio for the computer sector has continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 1.6% in Q4 2025, down 0.7 percentage points from Q3 2025. The heavy allocation ratios over the past year have been -2.8%, -3.4%, -3.6%, and -3.8%, indicating a deepening decline [19][20]. Sector Performance and Fund Flow - The absolute value of holdings in various sub-sectors has generally decreased, with increased pressure from fund outflows. The top five sub-sectors by market value in Q4 2025 are IT infrastructure (2.8%), government IT (2.3%), industrial software (2.1%), cybersecurity (1.7%), and automotive IT (1.7%). The government IT sector saw a significant increase of 0.6%, while energy IT experienced a notable decline of 1.3% [6][34]. Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the computer sector has significantly increased, reaching a new high. The CR10 and CR5 concentration ratios rose from 65.9% to 69.8% and from 49.1% to 57.8%, respectively, indicating a trend towards increased concentration of fund holdings [7][43]. Future Outlook - The application and computing power chains are expected to continue attracting institutional investments, with a focus on structural opportunities amid sector rotation. The current optimistic narrative surrounding AI is expected to drive demand for computing power, particularly as AI applications begin to materialize in various high-value scenarios [8][27][28]. Valuation Metrics - As of February 3, 2026, the latest PE-TTM for the Jiangsu computer index is 68.5 times, which is at the 91st percentile since 2016. In comparison, the latest PE-TTM for the CSI 300 is 13.3 times, at the 78th percentile [48][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expectation of returns stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - Strong demand for computing power driven by AI applications is expected to continue, with significant investments from major cloud providers [8]. - The hardware supply-demand imbalance is spreading across various sectors, leading to price increases [8]. - New technologies such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) are anticipated to create additional demand [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include: - Semiconductor manufacturing: SMIC (688981, Buy), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347, Buy) - Testing and packaging: Changdian Technology (600584, Buy), Tongfu Microelectronics (002156, Buy), and others [9]. - Server storage: Lianqi Technology (688008, Buy) - CPUs: Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), Longxin Technology (688047, Not Rated), and others [9]. - Passive components: Sanhua Group (300408, Buy), Fenghua Advanced Technology (000636, Not Rated) [9]. - Server manufacturing: Industrial Fulian (601138, Buy), Huaqin Technology (603296, Buy) [9]. - Analog and power chips: Naxin Micro (688052, Buy), Sierui Technology (688536, Not Rated), and others [9]. - Semiconductor equipment: Zhongwei Company (688012, Buy), Northern Huachuang (002371, Buy), and others [9]. - Optical devices/chips: Zhishang Technology (301486, Not Rated), Tianfu Communication (300394, Not Rated), and others [9]. AI Applications and Edge Computing - Key targets in edge AI applications include: - AI main control chips: Amlogic (688099, Buy), Hengxuan Technology (688608, Buy) - Edge storage: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986, Buy), Bawei Storage (688525, Buy) [10]. - Terminal manufacturers: Hikvision (002415, Buy), Luxshare Precision (002475, Buy), BYD Electronics (00285, Not Rated), and others [10]. - Core components for AI edge: Huanxu Electronics (601231, Buy), Sunny Optical Technology (02382, Buy), and others [10].

Market Overview - On February 6, the A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4065.58 points, down 0.25% [1] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.81% to 54253.68 points, while the Korean Composite Index fell by 1.44% to 5089.14 points [1] - Domestic commodity futures saw most contracts decline, with liquefied petroleum gas, alumina, and fuel rising over 1% [1] Bond Market - The 30-year government bond futures contract closed up 0.42%, with a final price of 112.570 yuan, an increase of 0.470 yuan [2] - Other government bond futures also saw slight increases, with the 10-year bond futures up 0.08% and the 5-year bond futures up 0.03% [2] ETF Performance - The chemical sector ETFs showed strong performance, with the chemical ETF (159870) rising by 2.64% [2] - Other chemical ETFs also reported gains, with increases of 2.49% and 2.47% for different funds [2] Capital Flow - On February 6, the top ten stocks by net capital inflow included Wuzhou Xinchun, with a net inflow of 1.22 billion yuan [3] Institutional Insights - PwC's recent report indicates a resurgence in global investment interest, with China regaining its attractiveness as a key investment destination [4] - DBS Bank's senior investment strategist noted that institutional investors dominate the long positions in the international gold futures market, suggesting a strategy of holding low and selling at high prices [4]

近日，上海浦发银行披露两则采购项目结果公示，分别为鲲鹏芯片服务器、海光四号芯片服务器采购项目，其中 恒驰信息以1.58亿元中标、神州新桥以2.15亿元中标。 根据浦发银行2月4日发布的《2025年金融云信创基础设施系统常规扩容项目等两项目第二批鲲鹏芯片服务器采购 项目》结果公示，上海恒驰信息系统有限公司以1.58亿元中标。 同一天，浦发银行《2025年金融云信创基础设施常规扩容等二项目之海光四号芯片服务器采购项目》结果公示， 北京神州新桥科技有限公司以2.15亿元中标。 官网显示，恒驰信息是华为核心代理商、华为优选CSP服务伙伴、华为云核心解决方案提供商和CTSP能力伙伴， 该公司聚焦ICT集成、云业务、信息安全三大核心业务。 海光四号（海光7400系列）发布于2023年10月，首次采用自研CPU微架构，是海光信息推出的第四代国产高端x86 服务器处理器，采用自主研发的新一代CPU微架构，支持64核128线程（如7490型号）。它兼容X86指令集，支持 国密算法，主打高性能计算与数据中心市场，广泛应用于服务器、工作站等。 神州新桥成立于2001年，是东华软件的全资子公司，为国内金融行业IT技术服务提供商。 目 ...

Core Insights - The main focus of the news is on the top 20 stocks with significant capital inflow as of February 6, highlighting their respective amounts and performance in terms of percentage change. Group 1: Capital Inflow - The stock with the highest capital inflow is Wuzhou Xinchun, attracting 1.22 billion yuan [1] - Data Port follows closely with an inflow of 1.078 billion yuan [1] - Tianji Co. has an inflow of 1.065 billion yuan, marking a strong performance [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Wuzhou Xinchun shows a price increase of 10.01% [2] - Data Port has a price increase of 10% [2] - Tianji Co. reports a price increase of 9.99% [2] Group 3: Industry Breakdown - Wuzhou Xinchun belongs to the General Equipment sector [2] - Data Port is categorized under Internet Services [2] - Tianji Co. is part of the Battery industry [2] Group 4: Additional Stocks - Hunan Gold has a capital inflow of 883 million yuan with a price increase of 9.94% [1][2] - Shanshan Co. sees an inflow of 726 million yuan and a price increase of 10.03% [1][2] - Galaxy Electronics has an inflow of 672 million yuan with a price increase of 10.06% [1][2] Group 5: Other Notable Stocks - The stock with the lowest inflow in the top 20 is Sanhua Intelligent Control, with an inflow of 481 million yuan and a price increase of 2.06% [3] - Other notable stocks include Northern Rare Earth with an inflow of 495 million yuan and a price increase of 3.73% [3] - Fenghuo Communication has an inflow of 493 million yuan with a price increase of 5.58% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the communication industry, indicating an expected outperformance of over 10% compared to the benchmark index [1][36]. Core Insights - The emergence of Moltbot as a significant application in Silicon Valley represents a major leap in AI capabilities, enabling seamless workflow automation from thought to execution. This application has rapidly gained popularity, surpassing 100,000 stars on GitHub, making it one of the fastest-growing open-source projects globally [4][12]. - The report highlights the potential for unlimited cloud computing power driven by applications like Moltbot, which could lead to increased capital expenditures in cloud service providers (CSPs) due to rising demand for computational resources [4][12]. - The demand for cloud hosts and various types of home servers is expected to grow rapidly, benefiting public cloud vendors as they offer more secure and stable solutions compared to local PCs [5][13]. - AIOT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) applications on the edge are anticipated to have significant potential, as Moltbot combines cloud capabilities with local execution, creating a closed-loop system for industrial intelligence [5][13]. - SpaceX's plan to establish a satellite computing cluster consisting of up to 1 million satellites represents a substantial development in space computing capabilities, which could integrate with existing satellite networks and enhance data processing capabilities [6][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Moltbot's capabilities include automating tasks such as email management, scheduling, and even automated trading, showcasing its versatility and potential for widespread adoption [4][12]. - The report suggests that the rapid spread of Moltbot and similar applications will lead to increased demand for cloud computing resources, potentially causing a "computing power crunch" [4][12]. Market Overview - The communication index rose by 5.83% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, while the broader market indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.44% [7][15]. - The top-performing sectors included optical cables and marine cables, with significant weekly gains [7][15]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies in various segments, including: - Cloud Computing: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Industrial Fulian, Woer, Zhishang Technology, Guangku Technology [6][15]. - CPU/CXL: Haiguang Information, Lanke Technology, ZTE, Wantong Development [6][15]. - Edge Computing: Ruixin Micro, Zhaoyi Innovation, Yinghantong, Guanghetong, Yiyuan Communication, Meige Intelligent [6][15]. - Inter-satellite Laser Communication: Fenghuo Communication, Guangxun Technology, Guangku Technology, Aerospace Electronics, Zhongrun Optics, Tengjing Technology [6][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip Leader ETF (516640), which opened down by 1.75% at 1.122 yuan on February 6 [1] - Major holdings in the Chip Leader ETF experienced declines, with notable drops including Cambrian (down 1.49%), SMIC (down 1.48%), and GigaDevice (down 2.43%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Chip Industry Index return, managed by Fortune Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 14.35% since its inception on August 19, 2021, and a return of 2.83% over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The top 20 stocks with significant capital inflow as of February 6 include Wuzhou Xinchun (1.12 billion), Tianji Co. (1 billion), and Data Port (973 million) [1] - Wuzhou Xinchun saw a price increase of 10.01%, while Tianji Co. and Data Port both increased by 9.99% and 10% respectively [2] - Other notable stocks include Hunan Gold (10% increase, 793 million), and Shennan Circuit (10% increase, 701 million) [2][3] Group 2 - The electronics sector is represented by companies like Shennan Circuit, Shanshan Co., and Shenghong Technology, with inflows of 701 million, 689 million, and 633 million respectively [2][3] - The battery industry includes significant players such as Ningde Times (2.54% increase, 625 million) and Enjie Co. (10% increase, 496 million) [2][3] - Chemical products sector features companies like Yongtai Technology (10.02% increase, 477 million) and Duofluor (7.7% increase, 451 million) [3]

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF (159813) opened down 1.34% at 1.182 yuan on February 6 [1] - Major holdings in the semiconductor ETF experienced declines, including SMIC down 1.48%, Haiguang Information down 1.00%, and Cambrian down 1.49% [1] - The performance benchmark for the semiconductor ETF is the National Securities Semiconductor Chip Index return rate, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Since its establishment on April 17, 2020, the semiconductor ETF has returned 79.62%, with a return of 3.35% over the past month [1]