半导体ETF南方（159325）业绩比较基准为中证半导体行业精选指数收益率，管理人为南方基金管理股 份有限公司，基金经理为赵卓雄、何典鸿，成立（2024-10-31）以来回报为49.44%，近一个月回报为 5.54%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 1月5日，半导体ETF南方（159325）开盘涨1.00%，报1.509元。半导体ETF南方（159325）重仓股方 面，中芯国际开盘涨3.26%，寒武纪涨1.43%，海光信息涨1.38%，北方华创涨1.94%，澜起科技涨 1.44%，兆易创新涨3.30%，中微公司涨1.94%，豪威集团涨0.37%，长电科技涨1.14%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant growth, with chip design, semiconductor equipment, and materials projected to rise by 62.38%, 60.86%, and 37.31% respectively by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor theme index, focusing on the aforementioned three sectors, is anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 62.33% in 2025, with the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) experiencing a net inflow of over 220 million yuan in the last five trading days [2] - The demand for semiconductor equipment is driven by advancements in AI and domestic substitution, particularly in the storage chip sector, which is reshaping the global pricing cycle [4][5] Group 2 - The storage chip segment accounts for approximately 30% of the integrated circuit market, making it a significant area for semiconductor equipment demand [5] - The global storage industry is entering a new upcycle, with DRAM and NAND prices rising since September 2024, and this trend is expected to continue through 2026 [5] - The shift towards 3D architecture in DRAM and NAND is projected to increase the service market for related equipment by approximately 1.7 times and 1.8 times respectively [6] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, which has a high concentration of leading companies in the semiconductor supply chain, with the top five companies accounting for over 50% of the index [6][8] - The CSI semiconductor index has shown a maximum increase of over 570% since the last upcycle, with a notable 63.92% increase in 2025, outperforming other semiconductor indices [7][8] - The high concentration of equipment, materials, and design sectors in the CSI semiconductor index indicates a strong potential for domestic substitution and ongoing market and policy support [8]

Summary of Conference Call on Domestic Computing Power Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the domestic computing power industry in China, particularly in the context of AI and related technologies [2][3][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Opportunities in Domestic Computing Power**: The domestic computing power market aligns with global trends in AI, presenting opportunities for domestic substitution, which could enhance growth potential as the overall market environment improves [2]. - **Expected Gaps Between Domestic and Overseas Computing Power**: In 2026, there are anticipated gaps in market perception, with domestic industry sentiment perceived as weaker than overseas. However, long-term capital expenditure in the domestic internet sector is expected to align closely with overseas levels due to GDP and user acceptance factors [3]. - **Catalysts for Growth**: Key catalysts for the growth of domestic computing power in 2026 include policy support, significant events, and performance forecasts, particularly in January [5]. - **CSP Capital Expenditure Trends**: Overseas CSP capital expenditure is projected to grow by approximately 50% in 2026, while domestic growth is expected to be 30-40%. However, historical data suggests that domestic capital expenditure could catch up in the coming years due to supply chain improvements and technological advancements [6]. - **Government Initiatives**: The Chinese government is likely to introduce plans related to intelligent computing during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which could serve as a significant catalyst for the development of AI and related industries [7]. Market Dynamics - **Current Market Conditions**: The market is currently at a low point, but a turning point is expected in the first half of 2026 with clearer market dynamics following internet tenders. Policy support is crucial for the listing of startups, although some advanced cards have not yet been permitted in the domestic market [9]. - **Performance of NVIDIA's H200**: The H200 product is primarily used in the training market, while domestic cards focus on inference needs. Although the H200 may not maintain its competitive edge in 2026, it will not significantly impact the trend towards self-sufficiency in China [11]. - **Chip Development by Major Companies**: Companies like Huawei, Haiguang, and Cambricon are advancing their chip technologies, with Huawei set to launch the 950 series in 2026, while Haiguang's products are expected to compete with NVIDIA's H100 [12]. Emerging Companies and Market Potential - **Startups**: Emerging companies such as Mu Xi, Mo Er, and Bi Ren Technology are rapidly advancing, with varying focuses on supply chain compatibility and performance optimization. Their growth potential is significant, with some companies showing strong revenue and profit growth [13]. - **Future Market Growth**: The outlook for the domestic chip market over the next two to three quarters is optimistic, driven by developments in supercomputing nodes and the resolution of supply chain issues [15]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus Areas for Investors**: Investors are advised to concentrate on the domestic computing power sector, particularly processor companies, server-related enterprises, and supercomputing core node companies. Early positioning in these areas is recommended [17]. - **Risks in the Sector**: Potential risks include macroeconomic impacts on downstream demand and intensified market competition. Individual company fundamentals may also affect overall industry performance [18]. Additional Important Points - **Domestic Inference Demand**: The demand for inference in China remains strong, with local models progressing rapidly, indicating a positive outlook for domestic capital expenditure and innovation [8]. - **Key Market Trends**: The development of supercomputing nodes and the ability to streamline domestic supply chains are critical for shaping the market landscape in 2026 [16].

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026 年电子行业十大预测 20260104 Q&A 2026 年电子行业的十大预测中,云端算力板块有哪些重要趋势和变化? 2026年,云端算力板块尤其是国产算力将迎来显著发展。首先,从产能角度来 看,预计到 2026年底,包括国内头部晶圆厂在内的 N2 制程将释放充沛的产能, 为国内 GPU 厂商提供足够的供给。这意味着产能瓶颈不再是国产算力发展的核心 问题。 从需求端来看,无论是字节跳动等龙头公司的投放消耗,还是国产算力 原厂商的客单价情况,都显示出强劲增长。例如,在2025年 5月,字节跳动单 日数据消耗约为 15-16 万亿,到 9 月底已达到 30 万亿,并在 12 月初超过 50 万 k 调研纪号 争 狗 - 国产 GPU 产能释放,不再是算力瓶颈,字节跳动等龙头企业数据消耗量激 . 增,预示国产算力需求端强劲增长,2026年中或突破百万亿级别,为国 产算力公司业绩兑现奠定基础。 寒武纪和海光等龙头 GPT 公司在产能供给和地方政府招标中占据优势,同 ● 时,推理芯片需求增加,ASIC 芯片有望与 GPU 并驾齐驱,新元股份和翱 捷等公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baidu's stock price surged following the announcement of Kunlun Chip's application for a separate listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Goldman Sachs highlighting the potential for value unlocking through this asset separation [1] Group 1: Kunlun Chip Sales Growth - Goldman Sachs estimates that Kunlun Chip's total sales will reach approximately RMB 3.5 billion in 2025 and RMB 6.5 billion in 2026, primarily driven by Baidu's AI cloud infrastructure [2] - By the end of 2026, external sales are expected to account for 14% of Baidu Cloud's total revenue, alongside a recurring subscription business that currently constitutes nearly 30% of cloud revenue, together representing 43% of total revenue for Baidu Cloud in 2026 [2] Group 2: Peer Valuation Reference - Competitors such as Cambricon and Moore Threads are projected to have sales multiples of 40x and over 100x for 2026, while Wall Street's newly listed Biren Technology reached a market value of HKD 80 billion shortly after its IPO [3] Group 3: Impact on Baidu - Baidu's revenue from Kunlun Chip's sales will be included in its AI infrastructure cloud revenue, with strong growth anticipated in the AI accelerator-related cloud business driven by robust subscription revenue and rapid growth in external sales of Kunlun Chip [4] - The valuation of Baidu's 59% stake in Kunlun Chip is estimated to range from USD 3 billion to USD 11 billion, corresponding to a total valuation of USD 5 billion to USD 18 billion for Kunlun Chip, which represents 6% to 23% of Baidu's current market value [4] - If a 40x sales multiple is applied for 2026, the valuation of Baidu's stake could reach USD 22 billion, accounting for 45% of its latest market value [4] Group 4: Future Points of Interest for Baidu - Monitoring updates on Kunlun Chip's new orders, product upgrades, and progress towards independent listing will highlight the asset's value [6] - Updates on shareholder return policy revisions in Q1 2026 [6] - Insights from recent investor meetings regarding asset value unlocking initiatives [6] - Progress related to major listings in Hong Kong and southbound trading [6]

值得注意的是，传化智联（002010.SZ）以高达256.07%至361.57%的净利润预计增幅，暂列目前"预增 王"。公司预计2025年归母净利润为5.4亿至7亿元。公告显示，业绩大幅增长除因主营业务取得良好增 长外，也受益于转让部分子公司股权确认的投资收益及回购子公司股权提升持股比例等因素。 传统制造业在此轮业绩预告中表现尤为亮眼。钢铁行业方面，首钢股份（000959.SZ）预计2025年归母 净利润为9.2亿元至10.6亿元，同比增长95.29%至125.01%，增速上限在已披露公司中位居前列。公司表 示，业绩增长得益于产品结构优化、高端化发展及"极低成本"管理理念的贯彻。 同样属于钢铁板块的华菱钢铁（000932.SZ）在消化了补缴环保税及滞纳金约6.57亿元的情况下，依然 预计净利润增长27.97%至47.66%。对此，公司解释，主要得益于降本增效以及高端化、绿色化、智能 化、精益化四化转型等工作的开展。 以电子、医药生物为代表的高景气赛道则呈现批量报喜的态势。其中，电子行业的强一股份 （688809.SH）预计净利润增长52.30%至80.18%；医药行业的百奥赛图（688796.SH）则凭借海外 ...

格隆汇1月4日｜有投资者在互动平台向寒武纪提问：目前我们看到互联网领域的主要潜在客户，比如阿 里、腾讯、百度，都已经推出了自研芯片，字节也有团队在研发，市场有消息明年可能会有产品流片并 进入应用。面对客户自研趋势，公司现有以及未来规划的算力芯片，和这些互联网客户的自研产品相 比，主要优势体现在哪些方面？ 寒武纪回复称，互联网企业研发人工智能芯片主要是围绕其主营业务 或针对特定应用场景完成完整或较为完整的行业解决方案。公司是智能芯片领域全球知名的新兴公司， 能提供云边端一体、软硬件协同、训练推理融合、具备统一生态的系列化智能芯片产品和平台化基础系 统软件。公司产品是针对人工智能领域内多样化应用场景而设计、研发的通用型智能芯片，对视觉、语 音、自然语言处理、传统机器学习技术等各类人工智能技术具备较好的普适性，可为多个行业领域客户 提供不同尺寸、多场景的差异化产品，满足客户的差异化需求。 ...

高盛在最新研报中指出，百度旗下芯片部门昆仑芯已正式递交香港上市申请，这标志着百度解锁资产价 值迈出了坚实的一步。 据追风交易台，1月3日，高盛发布最新研报认为，根据其核心测算显示，如果市场给予昆仑芯类似于寒 武纪的估值倍数（40倍市销率），百度持有的59%股权价值将高达220亿美元，惊人地相当于百度当前 总市值的45%。即便在保守估值下，这也代表着巨大的潜在上行空间。 昆仑芯分拆上市：解锁隐蔽价值的关键一步 百度已宣布，昆仑芯于2026年1月1日向香港联交所递交了上市申请。此次分拆将通过全球发售昆仑芯股 份的方式进行，包括香港公开发售以及向机构和专业投资者的配售。 对于投资者而言，最关键的信息在于股权结构的变化与控制权。高盛指出，截至2025年8月，百度持有 昆仑芯59%的控股权。在拟议的分拆完成后，百度预计昆仑芯将继续作为公司的子公司。这意味着百度 既能通过独立上市释放昆仑芯的市场价值，又能继续在其生态系统中保持对核心算力基础设施的控制。 外部销售占比： 高盛预测，进入2026年，昆仑芯的外部销售将迅速增长，占到云总销 售额的14%。 业务结构优化： 结合更具经常性和高附加值的订阅业务（据高盛估算接近云收入 ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院移动游戏研究小组发布的《中国移动游戏行业市场前瞻与投资战 略规划分析报告》。 分析近五年来的中国集成电路行业融资事件数(数据截至2025年11月21日)，2021-2022年为行业融资高热 期，均突破1000起融资事件，2023年数量有所回落但总额升至1.15万亿元，2024年数量微降且总额腰斩至 5623.92亿元，2025年数量小幅回升至938起，总额为9110.51亿元。 融资事件汇总 2025年我国集成电路行业的主要融资事件如下： 行业主要上市公司：目前国内集成电路产业的上市公司主要有芯原股份(688521.SH);寒武纪(688256.SH); 概伦电子(688206.SH);北方华创(002371.SZ);中微公司(688012.SH);兆易创新(603986.SH);圣邦微电子 (300661.SZ);华虹集团(688347.SH);中芯国际(688981.SH/00981.HK);长电科技(600584.SH);通富微电 (002156.SZ)等。 本文核心数据：融资事件数;融资总量 1、中国集成电路行业投融资现状 融资事件情况 图表2： ...

1只股票涨，人们说这是风口；6只股票齐飞，它们就有了名字——"易中天""纪连海"。 总结2025：AI浪潮下的"谐音行情" 2025年，全球AI技术进入规模化应用阶段，中国在政策支持与产业升级的双重驱动下，迎来"AI+"的渗 透加速。 A股市场中，以"易中天"（新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信）为代表的光模块与通信设备板块，以及"纪 连海"（寒武纪、工业富联、海光信息）为代表的AI芯片与算力硬件板块，成为资金追捧的焦点。 资金对上述股票的青睐，并非简单的科技大票"抱团"，而是源于其背后逻辑清晰的两条投资主线。 这不是历史课堂，而是2025年A股市场的真实一幕。在科技与AI浪潮席卷下，以"新易盛、中际旭创、 天孚通信、寒武纪、工业富联、海光信息"为代表的6只科技领域龙头股票，因名称谐音被市场戏称 为"易中天"与"纪连海"，成为2025年A股全年行情中最具话题性的符号。 "易中天"聚焦"数据传输"。受益于全球算力建设对高速光模块的迫切需求，800G光模块进入放量期， 1.6T技术亦开始落地布局，行业景气度持续攀升。 回顾2025年，这些股票强势的股价表现，是A股人工智能、算力、光通信、芯片等科技领域全面爆发的 真实写照 ...