华宝基金 半导体材料 聚焦『高精尖』·20CM 高弹性 上证科创板芯片ETF GEF # 589 90 1月27日 全 "芯"上市 這便科技 ·聚焦高精尖 更高收益 科创芯片指数长期表现突出,自基日以来累计涨幅超 161%,年化收益率17.93%,显著跑赢科创创业半导 体、国证芯片等同类指数。 科创芯片指数基日以来累计收益 161.34% 180% 151.85% 160% 140% 112.93% 104.77% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 科创创业半导体 国证本片 中证全指半导体 科创芯片 更低回撤 在保持较强进攻性的同时,科创芯片指数年化夏普比 率更高. 风险收益比更好. 区间最大回撤也较小。 科创创业 国证芯片 中证合指 创成片指数 未自休 术营体 年化收益率 13.86% 17.93% 17.19% 13.10% 年化夏普比率 0.54 0.52 0.63 0.63 年化波动率 39.64% 37.48% 35.83% 36.52% | -60.05% -61.73% -62.54% 区间最大回撤 | -56.81% | | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

证券研究报告 2026年1月26日 行业：电子 增持 （维持） 全球算力多点突破，AI 驱动端侧应用渗透（更正） ——科技主题观点综述 分析师：颜枫 SAC编号：S0870525030001 分析师：方晨 SAC编号：S0870523060001 分析师：李心语 SAC编号：S0870525040001 主要观点 风险提示：人工智能技术落地和商业化不及预期；产业政策转变；宏观经济不及预期。 更正说明:页16更正数据、补充"资料来源：WIND，上海证券研究所 *盈利预测来自WIND机构一致预期"。 2 • "硬科技"在AI驱动下表现突出：A股上市公司中，以国产算力芯片，AI-PCB，AIDC配套设施，AI端侧Soc芯片设计/封 测和部分消费电子企业为代表的板块在2024年业绩表现出较快增速，并在2025年Q1-Q3保持高增长，展望2025-2026年， 有望受益于国产算力资本开支持续增长，端侧应用渗透率不断提高，成为电子乃至科技行业增速较快的领域。 • 大国博弈下科技行业的估值体系有望重构：随着中美两国在科技/贸易等领域持续博弈，以电子行业为代表的科技板块 的估值中枢有望进一步抬升，我们认为尤其是目前国产化比例 ...

1月8日上午9点30分，港交所交易大厅内掌声响起，智谱AI正式挂牌上市。两千多公里外的北京海淀， 东升大厦前的一块巨大的电子屏亮起："智谱 全球大模型第一股"，左上方"AI原点社区"的标志很醒目 ——这里，曾是人工智能在北京萌芽的地方。 新质生产力加速成长、产业升级步履铿锵、首都功能不断提升……"十四五"时期，我们见证了北京高质 量发展的坚实步伐。带着超5.2万亿地区生产总值的底气，这座城市开启了"十五五"的新征程。值此 2026北京"两会"之际，我们推出"乘风'十五五' 北京的领与先"系列专题报道，聚焦北京在科技创新、产 业跃升、城市治理、民生改善等各领域的先行探索与引领实践，擘画高质量发展新图景的思路与举措。 2026年1月的一次公开演讲上，清华大学人文学院副教授唐宸向观众展示了一张特殊的星图：金星与昴 宿在夜空中重合——这是他利用识典古籍助手对公元757年的天象进行的高精度复原。 同一座城市里，另一场协同正在发生。在智源研究院的推动下，一套名为FlagOS的系统软件栈，成了 连接国产AI芯片与大模型的"通用语言"。 两个故事，看似毫无联系，却共同指向一个事实：在全球人工智能大浪淘沙的激烈筛选中，北京正 ...

科技一马当先，依然是2026北京高质量发展的主线。 根据最新的政府工作报告，今年的重点工作提出构建有竞争优势的新质生产力发展格局，大力发展高精 尖产业。 高水平建设国际医药创新公园，全生态链推进绿色先进能源、新能源汽车、机器人、商业航天等重点项 目。同时，北京还将全面实施"人工智能+"行动，建设国家人工智能中试基地。 中试平台是验证技术成熟度的关键环节。对符合条件的新建平台，北京最高给予1亿元补助，资金重点 投向技术从"实验室"走向"生产线"的关键节点。 具体看，众多高科技产业赫然在列，大量企业从幕后走向台前。 寒武纪在资本市场掀起热浪，摩尔线程加速进入盈利周期，智谱跑出全球大模型第一股……北京硬科 技"名片"不断擦亮，它们来自国产芯片、人工智能、创新药等领域，成为北京国际科创中心的典型代 表，见证了北京科创的大有可为。 北京之所以能在科技创新领域持续领跑，天时地利人和缺一不可。 顶尖人才的密集供给，政策等关键要素的系统性支撑，算力基础设施的大力加持，有为政府与有效市场 高效协同开放互动，由此形成了"政产学研用"高效循环的一流生态。 人是核心。依托丰富的科教资源，包括顶尖高校、科研机构，这里聚集了最顶尖的人工 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The focus is on the **fiber optic cable** and **AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center)** sectors, with specific mention of companies like **Changfei Fiber**, **Hengtong Optic-Electric**, **Zhongtian Technology**, and **Fenghuo Communication**. Core Points and Arguments - **Fiber Optic Price Surge**: The price of fiber optics has significantly increased due to rising demand from operators and AI, particularly driven by overseas data center construction for the 657A1 type fiber. The supply remains tight due to low willingness from domestic and foreign manufacturers to expand production and a contraction in supply caused by bankruptcies in the industry [1][4][5]. - **Impact of AWS Price Increase**: AWS's decision to raise GPU capacity block prices indicates a potential increase in AI cloud infrastructure costs, which is favorable for the domestic AI industry chain. The H200 incident's impact is diminishing, and the development of domestic computing cards is driving AIDC demand [1][8]. - **AIDC Market Dynamics**: Recent changes in the AIDC sector include some companies increasing delivery volumes, leading to a tight supply-demand balance. If demand continues to grow and energy consumption is strictly controlled, prices may rise. Notably, AIGC prices in Hong Kong have surged significantly, with some companies receiving demand guidance for 2027 that is several times that of 2024 and 2025 [1][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Short-term investment suggestions prioritize AI giants (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance), followed by AIDC (data centers, liquid cooling, power supply), then network components (switches, chips, optical modules, copper connections), and finally computing (chips, servers, server power supplies) [1][13]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Performance of Related Companies**: Companies like Changfei Fiber, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Fenghuo Communication are expected to benefit significantly from the current price increases in fiber optics, with leading firms' cost prices between 14-15 yuan and second-tier firms at 17-18 yuan, indicating substantial profit margins [1][6]. - **Monitoring Factors for Fiber Market Trends**: Key factors to watch include upcoming telecom procurement and the impact of AI on the prices of 652D and 657A1 fiber types. Continuous tracking of the industry chain is crucial due to the unpredictable nature of raw material prices [1][7]. - **Future AIDC Developments**: The growth of domestic computing cards is directly linked to increased demand for data center infrastructure, with major brands like Huawei and Alibaba having significant needs. The successful distribution of H200 cards could further benefit the domestic AI and computing chains [1][10]. - **Investment Focus in Communication Sector**: Investors should pay close attention to the satellite communication sector, AIDC, domestic AI chains, and fiber optic sectors, as these areas are experiencing significant short-term marginal changes [1][14].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Cloud services and related technology resources in China - **Key Trends**: Expansion of demand and price increases across the cloud technology resource industry chain, driven by major promotions during the Spring Festival and rising costs in upstream materials [2][4] Core Insights - **Cloud Services Demand**: Significant growth in demand for reasoning resources, with expectations of price increases in CPU, IDC, and computing rental segments [1][3] - **CPU Market Dynamics**: Continuous price increases in CPUs due to rising upstream material costs, with high-end CPU demand accelerating, particularly for AGX development. Domestic CPU market share is increasing due to accelerated domestic substitution, with Haiguang Information highlighted as a key player [5][6] - **Domestic Computing Market**: AI development is driving the localization of computing power, with first-tier manufacturers like Huawei and Cambricon securing substantial orders. Second-tier manufacturers also have opportunities, with Haiguang Information and Cambricon noted as leading companies [6] - **Storage Industry Changes**: Increased storage consumption due to AI model training, with server memory costs rising. Storage prices are expected to rise significantly from the second half of 2025, remaining tight until 2027. Longxin and Changcun are highlighted as investment opportunities post-IPO [7][8] - **Norflash Market Growth**: Increased capacity for Norflash products in AI and general servers, benefiting companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Puran [9] Additional Insights - **ITC Sector Opportunities**: The ITC sector is expected to see a historical high in bidding volumes in 2026, with major companies like Alibaba and Tencent initiating large-scale tenders. Recommended companies include Runze and Aofei, which have strong fundamentals and growth potential [11][12] - **Liquid Cooling Market**: The domestic liquid cooling market is anticipated to grow significantly in 2026, driven by the introduction of domestic super-node products. Yingweike is recommended for its technological and brand advantages [13] - **Semiconductor Equipment Opportunities**: The semiconductor equipment sector is benefiting from rising storage prices and domestic substitution needs, with companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei recommended for their strong order prospects [14] - **Mechanical Equipment Demand**: Increased demand for mechanical equipment related to ITC construction, with recommendations for companies like KOTAI Power and Yuchai Power [15] - **Power Supply Developments**: The domestic power supply market is evolving with a focus on UPS and HVDC systems, with companies like Huawei and Keda Data holding significant market shares [16][17] - **Data Center Components**: Growth opportunities for data center components, particularly low-voltage circuit breakers, are expected as market demand rises, especially with the shift to 800V DC platforms [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The "hard technology" sector is expected to perform well under the influence of AI, with domestic computing chips, AI-PCB, AIDC supporting facilities, and AI edge SoC chip design/testing showing rapid growth in 2024 and maintaining high growth in Q1-Q3 of 2025. This sector is projected to benefit from continued growth in domestic computing capital investment and increasing penetration of edge applications, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the electronics and technology industries [4] - The valuation system of the technology industry is likely to be restructured due to the ongoing competition between major powers, particularly in the semiconductor manufacturing and equipment sectors, where the domestic production ratio is currently low. Companies such as Cambricon, SMIC, North Huachuang, Haiguang Information, and Zhongwei Company are recommended for attention [4] - Computing power remains the most important theme for the year, with a focus on AI-PCB (semiconductors) and AI optical modules. Companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others are highlighted for their potential [4] - Some consumer electronics stocks, particularly those in the "Apple supply chain," have become more cost-effective due to macroeconomic impacts on stock prices. Leading companies in the fruit chain and ODM sectors are expected to leverage demand in AIoT, humanoid robots, and automotive electronics to achieve performance and valuation improvements in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Power - The demand for AI computing technology is increasing, leading to significant breakthroughs for PCB manufacturers in the AI server field. The overall market for AI chips is expected to grow, with China being a major consumer market [18][22] - The AI-driven demand for computing power is pushing the development of various applications, including automotive electronics and IoT, which are expected to drive growth in the chip industry [18] Semiconductor and Equipment - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is projected to see substantial growth, with companies like SMIC and North Huachuang showing promising revenue and profit growth rates [17] - The PCB equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 290.25 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 347.09 billion yuan by 2026 [27] Consumer Electronics - The CIS market is experiencing a recovery, driven by demand from smartphones, security, and automotive applications. Domestic manufacturers are increasing their market presence with high-end products [46] - The SoC market is expected to grow, with AI technology becoming a crucial component for various applications, including smart home devices and automotive electronics [44]

如果说规模实力决定企业的当下地位，那么发展能力就决定了它的未来高度。 在资本市场，增长可以靠并购短期拉高，营收可以靠补贴暂时支撑，但真正的增长能力，是企业对未来 趋势的预判力、对技术变革的适应力、对市场扩张的执行力和对竞争格局的塑造力。 一场技术革命，最先受益的是拥有前沿布局的企业；一次产业升级，最终胜出的是具备持续创新基因的 公司。当经济从"高速增长"转向"高质量发展"，发展能力，就成为企业穿越周期、引领行业的核心动 能。 基于济安金信最新发布的上市公司竞争力评级数据，我们整理出"A股发展能力"维度排名前100的公司 名单。这些企业不仅当前表现优异，更在研发投入、市场拓展、技术储备、战略前瞻性等方面展现出强 大的成长潜力。 本期榜单，带你看清谁是真正的"未来引擎"。 济安金信的"发展能力"评估，并非仅看营收增长率，而是重点考察： - 研发投入占比：是否持续加码核心技术 - 新产品/新市场贡献率：增长是否来自创新驱动 - 专利数量与质量：技术护城河有多深 - 战略前瞻性：是否提前布局未来赛道 得分越高，意味着企业在所属赛道中，增长动能越强，未来想象空间越大，长期价值释放潜力越足。 从数据来看，这份榜单高度集中 ...

截至1月26日收盘，同花顺新质50概念下跌4.24%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，海格通信、凯 众股份、中国卫通等跌停，浩瀚深度、中科星图、北斗星通等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有4只，涨幅居前 的有沃尔核材、天孚通信、中际旭创等，分别上涨6.04%、3.59%、0.82%。 资金面上看，今日同花顺新质50概念板块获主力资金净流出96.93亿元，其中，43股获主力资金净流 出，19股主力资金净流出超亿元，净流出资金居首的是三花智控，今日主力资金净流出15.78亿元，净 流出资金居前的还有通富微电、寒武纪、海格通信等，主力资金分别净流出13.15亿元、12.50亿元、 9.85亿元。今日主力资金净流入居前的概念股有天孚通信、中际旭创、沃尔核材等，主力资金分别净流 入11.05亿元、3.50亿元、3.39亿元。（数据宝） | 688065 | 凯赛生物 | -0.05 | 1.44 | 3540.65 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600050 | 中国联通 | -0.39 | 0.97 | 9279.03 | | 002130 | 沃尔核材 | 6.04 | 15.35 | ...

消息面上，三星电子将第一季度NAND闪存供应价格上调100%以上，涨幅远超市场预期。这是继 DRAM内存价格上调近70%后，存储市场释放的又一调价信号。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券认为，2026第一季度各品类存储价格环比涨幅超预期，预计2026年全年全球存储供给整体维持 偏紧状态，AI需求增长持续高于产能扩张速度，其他消费类存储和利基型存储受到产能挤压和下游恐 慌备货等因素，价格涨幅也远超常规水平。今年国内存储产业链多环节都将受益于缺货涨价浪潮，核心 建议关注存储原厂、存储模组/芯片公司、存储封测/代工等环节。 1月26日午后，市场延续震荡调整走势，截至14:35，上证科创板芯片设计主题指数下跌1.1%。 上证科创板芯片设计主题指数由科创板内不超过50只业务涉及芯片设计领域的股票组成，指数前五大权 重股为海光信息、澜起科技、寒武纪、芯原股份、东芯股份，数字芯片设计行业合计占比超75%，在AI 驱动的新范式下具备长期成长潜力。 ...